20130501
Short 2 NQ 2880.75, +2, -1.25
Long 3 TF 937.3, 937.5, 937.3, -0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 3 TF 936.5, 936..5, 936.1, -1.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 935.2, 935.2, +0.5, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 2874.25, 2874.25, +2.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 931.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 2869.25, +3.0
Long 1 TF 929.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 930.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 930.3, 930.1, +2.0, +0.5
2nd Frame PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 928.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 928.6, +2.0
Total NQ +3.25
Total TF +4.1
Trading around the news can be challenging. Today, we did it twice, once pre-10am before the econ report number released and then again around the FOMC. Beginners always question whether this is a prediction of the news outcome. And if not, how come it so often goes our way. That is, we position before the news and exit into it. Firstly, bracketing the news in order to try to capitalize on the outcome post-release is strictly an amateur play. And yet, I have seen so many teach this supposed risk-less trick in countless seminars. Apparently, none of these so called instructors have actually taken any of those news bracket entries in their own accounts. If so, they'd know that far too often the fills for such trades are at extremes, and only lead to quick or immediate stp-outs. How then, does not position for the news BEFORE it comes out...? The answer... by not positioning for the news at all. We position based on the technicals pre-news, using Serial Sequent Wave Method. If the market has already turned based on those methods and we have at least gotten enough profit to exit partials pre-news release time, then we can risk riding through the news with a resting net break-even stp-loss order. And far more often than not, the reversal seems to have 'predicted' the outcome of the market, and we exit the remainder on further celebration. Once the news settles down, we can then look for potential reversals in the opposite direction, if any. This is how we seem to be 'playing' the news, but in reality, are only using the extra volatility the news affords to our advantage. The mistake most traders make, apparently suffering from the same miseducation of the talking heads on such programs as Bloomberg and CNBC, is the underlying assumption that the news dictates the trend. If this were true, then bottoms would never come on bad news and tops never come on the good. But haven't you, the lone individual, the meanest of market subjects, noticed even without an ivy-league degree or an ivory tower pedigree that such is, in fact, precisely the case....? That bottom bull reversals accompany bad news and tops often set up with the good....? Then why, with such simple but repeatedly clarified observations should you leap to the opposite conclusion that the news drives the markets..... Is it that you feel so compelled to be in the company of television news anchor fools that wouldn't know a stp-loss from an MIT order? Think for yourself. You don't need an impressive credential or financial degree to trade the markets. In fact, your chances of success may just be better without one. Find a plan that is constructed around working models that occur repeatedly in the market place with some regularity. When they appear at the right edge of your video screen, take the trade. With a few filters and some trade management rules, this is your trade plan. Trade the plan. Become disciplined. The 'degree' to which you stay focused on your plan is the only credential necessary for success in trading. We don't predict. We only position. For more insights into market psychology, email will@valhallafutures.com and ask for the free ebook "Self Recognition".
