20150605
Short 1 TF 1245.1, -1.4
Short 1 NQ 4463.5, -3.0
Short 3 TF 1246.5, 1247.1, 1247.7, -1.4, -1.4, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1250.2, 1250.0, 1250.4, -1.0, -1.3, -0.9
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF -8.1
There a number of filters that go into using the 2nd trend direction as breakout opportunities. On most days, breakouts fail, and although vendors will often reveal their methods by cherry picking those breakouts that, in fact, were successful as indicative of justification for a concentration of breakout utilization for trading efforts, such focus relies heavily on surviving a surplus of losses against letting the fewer winners run into a maximum of their excursion. As a whole, fading the market works more consistently, despite--or perhaps because--a fewer number of market participants employ fading the action. But that doesn't mean breakouts lack merit and even necessity as part of a Trade Plan. What it means is a more selective criteria should be employed before considering them. (cont'd)
Today teaches us an important filter that although I've been intimately familiar with these many years as an analyst, writer and educator of trade concepts, I still have not actually added to a list of filters I summarize as ingredients for breakout entry qualification: Day Model rotation. As painfully apparent as this may be to anyone who has read the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, my list of breakout minutia up to this point in time has only contained technical event criteria from within the day of action itself, from the ORB forward, without due consideration and weighting as to where in the Day Model rotation sits the short term cycle. So prescribed, one would accordingly add to today's breakout filtering what the day model yesterday displayed, and if a cycle turning point as has laid down its marker in the prior day's behavior, weight the following day's list of 'best models to succeed' appropriately. Otherwise, one might tend to fight the day's trend action, as I did today, oblivious to those important 'tells', stubbornly giving back some important profits in disregard of breakout opportunities from recent days where breakouts were not the models of choice. ...a good weekend and good trading next week to all...
