Fri Nov 2 Trade Signals and Journal

20181102
Short 1 RTY 1559.1, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 7065.0, -2.5
Long 2 NQ 7055.25, 7058.0, +12.0, +10.0
Long 1 NQ 7055.25, -2.5
Long 1 NQ 7030.0, -2.5
Long 1 NQ 7027.25, -2.5
Long 2 YM 25133, 25133, -7, -7
Long 2 NQ 7009.0, 7009.0, +11.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 7005.0, +25.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +53.0
Total RTY +2.0


As I reminded students in the valhalla chat room today, near the end of the 1st frame:
"
Fri Nov02 10:30AM but RT now joins others in potential 2nd trend
Fri Nov02 10:30AM so this bounce could be last hurrah
Fri Nov02 10:30AM if when it starts....
Fri Nov02 10:31AM someone once said "2nd trends are where the surprises hide..."
Fri Nov02 10:31AM and this one showing some definitely cruelty to bulls
Fri Nov02 10:32AM think back to that RT 7 up at the HOD
Fri Nov02 10:32AM how scary it seemed to short up there
Fri Nov02 10:32AM was the safest play all day
Fri Nov02 10:33AM how comfortable it felt to throw money at the pulllback with longs because of
Fri Nov02 10:33AM that rally
Fri Nov02 10:33AM but how risky it was
Fri Nov02 10:33AM bottle that
Fri Nov02 10:33AM and you have captured
Fri Nov02 10:33AM an understanding
Fri Nov02 10:33AM of Test-n-Reject
Fri Nov02 10:33AM psychology
Fri Nov02 10:34AM and how it gets traders out of their profits
Fri Nov02 10:34AM and keeps them from taking the best trades offered
Fri Nov02 10:34AM day
Fri Nov02 10:34AM after day
Fri Nov02 10:34AM after day
Fri Nov02 10:34AM on nearly 80%
Fri Nov02 10:34AM of all trading days
Fri Nov02 10:35AM "Fade the First"
Fri Nov02 10:35AM and you're betting the better odds

I got away with 2nd trend fades today in the NQ because they occurred near the Trend Check, at extremes in the TTI momentum indicator, at the Sequents, with Rule of Alternation dictating the probable length of waves, as as the MA's were crossing down, signalling some confirmation that the highs had been fully rejected in favor of a budding 2nd trend down. ....just the right place to fade that technical confirmation signal and take long positions. Thus the failure of so many who use technical analysis signals.....they ignore CONTEXT. The booklets with titles like "Ten Things You Should Never Do" and "Follow These Ten Requirements for Trading Success" actually read more like a playbook to be faded. Confirmation is the killer of most traders. It brings them comfort to their entry executions, and disaster to their bottom line. It puts them squarely in the mix of the "90%" of most traders who consistently lose their account equity. ...but manages to help them feel better while losing it.

Many of these market psychology concepts and technical analysis can be found in the books Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swings Trades, and True Self by Will Scheier, available in Kindle format at Amazon.com.

Serial Sequent™ ® is a fractal algorithm that identifies internal market pattern structure invisible to the naked eye. It's the exclusive propery of Will Scheier, ValhallaFutures.com, and available only in software format.