20140228
Short 2 TF 1189.2, 1189.3, +1.7, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16313, 16315, -5, -2
Short 1 TF 1190.1, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 3719.0, -0.25
Short 1 TF 1192.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1193.4, 1193.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3716.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3714.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1190.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1189.9, 1189.9, -0.1, -0.2
Total YM -7
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +2.4
Monthly Totals Feb 2014
Total ES +1.75
Total YM +127
Total NQ +51.75
Total TF +52.4
Did considerably better in Jan than Feb. Made a number of mistakes in February trading, but not really much more than usual. A lot more dramatic divergences in these last few weeks than normal, but it's pointless to blame the market for one's P&L outcome. The market just is. It's our job to find and include Trade Entry Models that work in all markets, and to execute a plan regardless of our 'read' on market action. Today, for example, failed to hold onto the short at the HOD simply because I let the whippy action shake my patience. Stay patient. Sometimes it's more important to stick with the position when the trade model is right regardless of our apprehensions as to it impending success or failure. Let the market decide what it wants. Be the Trader. Stay discipline.
Thur Feb 27 Trade Summary
20140227
Short 2 TF 1180.5, 1180.5, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 3683.5, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16199, +14
Short 1 TF 1180.3, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +3.9
Short 2 TF 1180.5, 1180.5, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 3683.5, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16199, +14
Short 1 TF 1180.3, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +14
Total TF +3.9
Wed Feb 26 Trades & Journal
20140226
PM Trades:
Short 3 YM 16173, 16176, 16177, +14, +7, +7
Total YM +28
Was absent from the 1st frame action, NinjaTrader sponsored webinar. #4.
PM Trades:
Short 3 YM 16173, 16176, 16177, +14, +7, +7
Total YM +28
Was absent from the 1st frame action, NinjaTrader sponsored webinar. #4.
Tues Feb 25 Trades & Journal
20140225
Short 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.7, +0.5, +1.4
Long 2 NQ 3678.0, 3677.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1170.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1169.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1169.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1168.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1172.9, -0.5
PM Trades
Long 4 TF 1172.6, 1172.6, 1173.0, 1172.6, +0.7, +1.0, -0.0, +1.2
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.7
I let myself trade outside my plan once in the 1st Frame just after the news, when the TTI momentum gauge should have filtered a stp-n-rev out of consideration. This was simply weakness and perhaps a lapse in focus. Since an earlier stp-n-rev to short worked out just higher up, I let go my guard and got cockey with a strategy that I've had so much trouble implementing, but at a place at the 2nd occurrence when better focus and discipline would have deterred me. This is what trading is all about. Total focus and adherence to the Plan. Good for me that a classic Trade Plan setup in the Midday Frame just after the Noon Hour that paid off well and brought me in towards the minimum daily goal--something last week's trading failed to accomplish. Stay focused....
Short 2 TF 1172.8, 1172.7, +0.5, +1.4
Long 2 NQ 3678.0, 3677.25, -2.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1170.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1169.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1169.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1168.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1172.9, -0.5
PM Trades
Long 4 TF 1172.6, 1172.6, 1173.0, 1172.6, +0.7, +1.0, -0.0, +1.2
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +4.7
I let myself trade outside my plan once in the 1st Frame just after the news, when the TTI momentum gauge should have filtered a stp-n-rev out of consideration. This was simply weakness and perhaps a lapse in focus. Since an earlier stp-n-rev to short worked out just higher up, I let go my guard and got cockey with a strategy that I've had so much trouble implementing, but at a place at the 2nd occurrence when better focus and discipline would have deterred me. This is what trading is all about. Total focus and adherence to the Plan. Good for me that a classic Trade Plan setup in the Midday Frame just after the Noon Hour that paid off well and brought me in towards the minimum daily goal--something last week's trading failed to accomplish. Stay focused....
Mon Feb 24 Trades & Journal
20140224
Short 4 TF 1171.1, 1171.3, 1171.3, 1171.3, +0.9, +0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1174.7, 1175.0, -0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3697.75, 3798.25, -0.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1177.9, 1178.3, 1179.0, -1.5, -0.1, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 NQ 3694.5, 3694.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1177.0, +0.8
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +0.5
Persistent Trend action is the most difficult to trade. In the early going price action is associated more with grinds and shallow pullbacks then nice fat swings. As this has always been my worst day model to find trades in, I am often grateful to walk away without a loss, and today was no exception. I did take two Last Chance Texaco longs in PM trading, but the TF payoff was paltry, and I exited the NQ way too soon to capture its full excursion. And other trade opps did appear, but while I was away from the screen. We'll look for better opps later in the week. Stay focused.
Short 4 TF 1171.1, 1171.3, 1171.3, 1171.3, +0.9, +0.5, +0.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1174.7, 1175.0, -0.7, -0.4
Short 2 NQ 3697.75, 3798.25, -0.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1177.9, 1178.3, 1179.0, -1.5, -0.1, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 NQ 3694.5, 3694.5, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1177.0, +0.8
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +0.5
Persistent Trend action is the most difficult to trade. In the early going price action is associated more with grinds and shallow pullbacks then nice fat swings. As this has always been my worst day model to find trades in, I am often grateful to walk away without a loss, and today was no exception. I did take two Last Chance Texaco longs in PM trading, but the TF payoff was paltry, and I exited the NQ way too soon to capture its full excursion. And other trade opps did appear, but while I was away from the screen. We'll look for better opps later in the week. Stay focused.
Fri Feb 21 Trades & Journal
20140221
Short 2 TF 1162.2, 1161.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3681.75, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 3683.75, 3683.75, 3685.0, -3.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.3, 1164.3, +1.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3680.0, 3678.5, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3678.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16118, 16118, +7, -5
Long 1 TF 1161.6, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM +2
Total TF +4.5
About the best thing I can say about today's trades was the recognition that even though the last long in the TF contract was just shy of a completed entry model, the other 3 contracts were all giving buy signals, allowing me to 'borrow' those and trade in the TF. And it was that trade only that pushed me on near the daily profit goal. In general, my trading was not good this week. The trades were there, alright; but I wasn't. Am reviewing all the great breakout trades I balked at, and will make further resolve to spot them and go for them as they appear at the right edge of my video.
Short 2 TF 1162.2, 1161.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3681.75, -2.0
Short 3 NQ 3683.75, 3683.75, 3685.0, -3.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1164.0, 1164.3, 1164.3, +1.5, +0.5, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3680.0, 3678.5, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3678.75, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16118, 16118, +7, -5
Long 1 TF 1161.6, +2.0
Total NQ -5.0
Total YM +2
Total TF +4.5
About the best thing I can say about today's trades was the recognition that even though the last long in the TF contract was just shy of a completed entry model, the other 3 contracts were all giving buy signals, allowing me to 'borrow' those and trade in the TF. And it was that trade only that pushed me on near the daily profit goal. In general, my trading was not good this week. The trades were there, alright; but I wasn't. Am reviewing all the great breakout trades I balked at, and will make further resolve to spot them and go for them as they appear at the right edge of my video.
Thurs Feb 20 Trades & Journal
20140220
Long 1 TF 1149.5, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1148.6, 1148.6, -0.6, -0.6
short 1 TF 1148.0, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3647.5, 3648.0, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1147.90, 1148.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3647.25, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1147.7, 1147.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1145.8, 1146.0, +3.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.1, +0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1152.2, 1152.7, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1155.8, 1155.9, +0.5, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1156.3, 1156.4, 1156.4, -0.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1156.8, 1157.0, +1.0, +0.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.2
Preparedness is critical at the Opening each day. A number of ORB breakout plays are worthy of Trade Plan inclusion, but it does little good to have them so listed if I'm unprepared to call the trade in the chat room and get my entry orders positioned accordingly. And today, an early NQ short would have put me ahead into the pre-Philly Fed setups long before. I will credit some persistence on my part to reposition after the pre-Philly Fed trades failed, as an immediate Bad-News-Buy Opp was posted and taken successfully. Thereafter, my failings were a TF inflection breakout that was simply too skeptical to take, which cost me an important profit, and later a well time short at the end-of-frame TF high, which I lost patience on and failed to benefit from its full excursion. These three were critical errors, and because of them I only tread water all morning. Be settled and ready at the ORB. Have the YM, NQ and TF charts aligned and visible and enlarged to easy-viewing scale. See the model, take the trade. As for the inflection, this one deserves both study and memorization. I have failed at this very inflection breakout trade many times, usually because I simply believed that the near-peaked momentum was too big a caution to engage with it. But often on such 2nd Trend inflections, the final spurt of momentum is the most powerful. I need to get this breakout trade into my model, and executed on a consistent basis going forward. No more balking if it fitst the entry model. And as for the last mistake, that of exiting too soon from being short so well into the 1st Frame HOD, it comes of an unwillingness to give up the piece of profit that keeps my day at breakeven, after returning several times to negative territory as the shot clock winds down on my 1st frame entry trade initiation limitations. For this, I am simply suffering regrets, not true recrimination. As an unsuccessful day's trading that gets back to b/e at the self-imposed time limits elapse is really no shame. Regain focus. Be prepared.
Long 1 TF 1149.5, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1148.6, 1148.6, -0.6, -0.6
short 1 TF 1148.0, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3647.5, 3648.0, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1147.90, 1148.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 3647.25, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1147.7, 1147.4, -0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1145.8, 1146.0, +3.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.1, +0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1152.2, 1152.7, -1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1155.8, 1155.9, +0.5, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1156.3, 1156.4, 1156.4, -0.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1156.8, 1157.0, +1.0, +0.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.2
Preparedness is critical at the Opening each day. A number of ORB breakout plays are worthy of Trade Plan inclusion, but it does little good to have them so listed if I'm unprepared to call the trade in the chat room and get my entry orders positioned accordingly. And today, an early NQ short would have put me ahead into the pre-Philly Fed setups long before. I will credit some persistence on my part to reposition after the pre-Philly Fed trades failed, as an immediate Bad-News-Buy Opp was posted and taken successfully. Thereafter, my failings were a TF inflection breakout that was simply too skeptical to take, which cost me an important profit, and later a well time short at the end-of-frame TF high, which I lost patience on and failed to benefit from its full excursion. These three were critical errors, and because of them I only tread water all morning. Be settled and ready at the ORB. Have the YM, NQ and TF charts aligned and visible and enlarged to easy-viewing scale. See the model, take the trade. As for the inflection, this one deserves both study and memorization. I have failed at this very inflection breakout trade many times, usually because I simply believed that the near-peaked momentum was too big a caution to engage with it. But often on such 2nd Trend inflections, the final spurt of momentum is the most powerful. I need to get this breakout trade into my model, and executed on a consistent basis going forward. No more balking if it fitst the entry model. And as for the last mistake, that of exiting too soon from being short so well into the 1st Frame HOD, it comes of an unwillingness to give up the piece of profit that keeps my day at breakeven, after returning several times to negative territory as the shot clock winds down on my 1st frame entry trade initiation limitations. For this, I am simply suffering regrets, not true recrimination. As an unsuccessful day's trading that gets back to b/e at the self-imposed time limits elapse is really no shame. Regain focus. Be prepared.
Wed Feb 19 Trades & Journal
20140219
Short 1 NQ 36.76.75, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16153, 16153, +7, +7
Short 1 TF 1159.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1160.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1160.9, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 ES 1844.0, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +14
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Some days are better for trading than others. The signals are conflicted and the excursions are small. A profitable day that accepts the outcome is far better than forcing more trades or stop-outs with a mental attitude that wants the markets to be something other than what they are, this day, this hour, at this juncture. Keep to the Trade Plan.
Short 1 NQ 36.76.75, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16153, 16153, +7, +7
Short 1 TF 1159.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1160.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1160.9, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 ES 1844.0, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM +14
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.5
Some days are better for trading than others. The signals are conflicted and the excursions are small. A profitable day that accepts the outcome is far better than forcing more trades or stop-outs with a mental attitude that wants the markets to be something other than what they are, this day, this hour, at this juncture. Keep to the Trade Plan.
Tues Feb 18 Trades & Journal
20140218
Short 4 TF 1153.6, 1153.6, 1154.3, 1154.1, +0.5, -0.8, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1153.9, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1151.6, 1151.6, 1152.0, -0.5, -1.1, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1153.0, -0.1, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1153.3, 1153.3,1153.3, +0.5, +0.5, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1155.1, 1155.2, 1155.3, -0.6, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1155.4, 1155.5, -0.9, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1157.3, 1158.1, 1158.0, -1.4, -0.6, -0.7
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1156.6, 1156.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
It seems an inconsistency on the one hand to use relative positions of all four contracts against each other with such classical tools as divergence to include in trade entry, and then on the other hand, to acknowledge that sometimes, especially with the Russell 2k, one contract can act so independently of the others. Such was clearly the case today. But my poor performance is no fault other than my own, as the TF displayed a perfect bull pre-breakout pause pattern today that would have easily launched a position into the 2nd leg of the Persistent Trend Up... had I not balked at the blatant divergence. I found myself too committed to the short at that time, and have no other explanation of my repeated attempts to short the TF after that successful breakout other than a stubborn, get-even kind of revenge trading. Don't allow an exhibition of stubborn, get-even kind of revenge to infect your trading. Stay disciplined. The game is not to prove you're right, and the market is wrong. The business is to wait til the right Trade Entry Model appears at the right edge of your video screen, and take the trade regardless of how you 'feel' or the trend prejudice you may be suffering from at that moment. Any reversal signal at support/resistance, can be a stop-n-reverse back into trend, if other technical model minutia are in place. Know your plan. Trade no other.
Short 4 TF 1153.6, 1153.6, 1154.3, 1154.1, +0.5, -0.8, +1.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1153.9, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1151.6, 1151.6, 1152.0, -0.5, -1.1, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1152.0, 1153.0, -0.1, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1153.3, 1153.3,1153.3, +0.5, +0.5, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1155.1, 1155.2, 1155.3, -0.6, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1155.4, 1155.5, -0.9, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1157.3, 1158.1, 1158.0, -1.4, -0.6, -0.7
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1156.6, 1156.1, +1.0, +0.5
Total TF -0.0
It seems an inconsistency on the one hand to use relative positions of all four contracts against each other with such classical tools as divergence to include in trade entry, and then on the other hand, to acknowledge that sometimes, especially with the Russell 2k, one contract can act so independently of the others. Such was clearly the case today. But my poor performance is no fault other than my own, as the TF displayed a perfect bull pre-breakout pause pattern today that would have easily launched a position into the 2nd leg of the Persistent Trend Up... had I not balked at the blatant divergence. I found myself too committed to the short at that time, and have no other explanation of my repeated attempts to short the TF after that successful breakout other than a stubborn, get-even kind of revenge trading. Don't allow an exhibition of stubborn, get-even kind of revenge to infect your trading. Stay disciplined. The game is not to prove you're right, and the market is wrong. The business is to wait til the right Trade Entry Model appears at the right edge of your video screen, and take the trade regardless of how you 'feel' or the trend prejudice you may be suffering from at that moment. Any reversal signal at support/resistance, can be a stop-n-reverse back into trend, if other technical model minutia are in place. Know your plan. Trade no other.
Fri Feb 14 Trades & Journal
20140214
Long 2 NQ 3644.75, 3644.75, 3642.75, 3642.75, +1.0, +1.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 NQ 3641.75, 3641.75, 3641.75, +2.0, +3.0, +4.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1145.2, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF, 1143.6, 1143.6, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1143.8, 1143.9, -0.4, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1143.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, +1.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1140.5, +1.8
Total NQ +17.5
Total TF +4.0
To the intraday trader, big swings provide far better opportunities than the Persistent Trend Day we had yesterday. I have a trade plan for Persistent Trend Days, but I have trouble getting that hat on when the signs start showing up, and yesterday I let myself start the day infected with a trend prejudice. Stay focused. Trade the day that appears on your screen today. When it appears as a surprise and emotionally jarring, then it probably is appearing that way to a large majority of traders too, who like yourself, will probably spend the day fighting the trend instead of being in sync with it. Get in sync. When the signals are there, add to them the emotional appraisal that this day's action is a complete surprise and therefore your emotions themselves are a contrary opinion worth adding to your entry models. The market is closed Monday. Happy Birthday, George. We really miss you and Presidents like you, .....more than ever these days....
Long 2 NQ 3644.75, 3644.75, 3642.75, 3642.75, +1.0, +1.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 NQ 3641.75, 3641.75, 3641.75, +2.0, +3.0, +4.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1145.2, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF, 1143.6, 1143.6, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1143.8, 1143.9, -0.4, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1143.3, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1140.4, 1140.4, +1.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1140.5, +1.8
Total NQ +17.5
Total TF +4.0
To the intraday trader, big swings provide far better opportunities than the Persistent Trend Day we had yesterday. I have a trade plan for Persistent Trend Days, but I have trouble getting that hat on when the signs start showing up, and yesterday I let myself start the day infected with a trend prejudice. Stay focused. Trade the day that appears on your screen today. When it appears as a surprise and emotionally jarring, then it probably is appearing that way to a large majority of traders too, who like yourself, will probably spend the day fighting the trend instead of being in sync with it. Get in sync. When the signals are there, add to them the emotional appraisal that this day's action is a complete surprise and therefore your emotions themselves are a contrary opinion worth adding to your entry models. The market is closed Monday. Happy Birthday, George. We really miss you and Presidents like you, .....more than ever these days....
Thur Feb 13 Trades & Journal
20140213
Short 3 TF 1123.8, 1123.6, 1124.6, -1.4, ,-1.4, +0.5
Short 4 NQ 3616.75, 3616.75, 3617.75, -2.5, -2.5, +2, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15875, 15875, 15874, +7, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1128.0, 1127.9, +0,5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3624.75, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1130.8, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, 1132.5, 1132.5, +2.0, +1.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1129.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1135.5, -0.1
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1145.0, 1144.8, +0.4, -0.5
Total YM -3
Total NQ -8.0
Total TF +2.4
The Persistent Trend Day Up can be the hardest day to trade.... unless you got the memo it was coming, then it's a piece of cake. Guess I missed the fax, because I started off fading this against a series of resistance numbers with bearish trend prejudice, and didn't dig my way out till a major pullback about half way to the whole thing. Perhaps even bigger failure was when a pullback buy opp was in hand, I dumped it quickly thinking the top was in, and that critical mistake kept me from participating in the unbelievable 3rd leg... at least it was unbelievable to me. Quitting after digging oneself out is no shame, but approaching any day with such serious trend prejudice is usually a critical mistake. The PM session offered a similar pullback, but as a bigger correction was so overdue, I balked when it failed to reach a better support number. The persistence in trend such days display and the ensuing pain from losing trades is really not the most annoying aspect to the Trader's psyche. It's actually the amazing profits offered that you failed to participate in. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Be alert. Pay attention to the Day Model signals. Examine your head for trend prejudice, and always consider the possibilities that you are wrong when the signs appear.
Short 3 TF 1123.8, 1123.6, 1124.6, -1.4, ,-1.4, +0.5
Short 4 NQ 3616.75, 3616.75, 3617.75, -2.5, -2.5, +2, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15875, 15875, 15874, +7, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1128.0, 1127.9, +0,5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3624.75, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1130.8, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, 1132.5, 1132.5, +2.0, +1.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1129.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1135.5, -0.1
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1145.0, 1144.8, +0.4, -0.5
Total YM -3
Total NQ -8.0
Total TF +2.4
The Persistent Trend Day Up can be the hardest day to trade.... unless you got the memo it was coming, then it's a piece of cake. Guess I missed the fax, because I started off fading this against a series of resistance numbers with bearish trend prejudice, and didn't dig my way out till a major pullback about half way to the whole thing. Perhaps even bigger failure was when a pullback buy opp was in hand, I dumped it quickly thinking the top was in, and that critical mistake kept me from participating in the unbelievable 3rd leg... at least it was unbelievable to me. Quitting after digging oneself out is no shame, but approaching any day with such serious trend prejudice is usually a critical mistake. The PM session offered a similar pullback, but as a bigger correction was so overdue, I balked when it failed to reach a better support number. The persistence in trend such days display and the ensuing pain from losing trades is really not the most annoying aspect to the Trader's psyche. It's actually the amazing profits offered that you failed to participate in. We'll see how things go tomorrow. Be alert. Pay attention to the Day Model signals. Examine your head for trend prejudice, and always consider the possibilities that you are wrong when the signs appear.
Wed Feb 12 Trade Summary
20140212
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.7, +0.5, -0,3
Short 2 TF 1135.3, 1135.4, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16003, 16002, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 15964, 15965, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 15955, 19956, -5, -6
Long 3 YM 15952, 15952, 15954, +7, +11, -0
Long 3 TF 1130.6, 1130.6, 1129.6, -1.4, -1.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 15930, 15930, +7, +11
Total YM +40
Total TF -1.7
Short 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.7, +0.5, -0,3
Short 2 TF 1135.3, 1135.4, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 YM 16003, 16002, +7, +17
Long 2 YM 15964, 15965, -4, -5
Long 2 YM 15955, 19956, -5, -6
Long 3 YM 15952, 15952, 15954, +7, +11, -0
Long 3 TF 1130.6, 1130.6, 1129.6, -1.4, -1.4, -0.6
Long 2 YM 15930, 15930, +7, +11
Total YM +40
Total TF -1.7
Tues Feb 11 Trade Summary
20140211
Short 2 TF 1120.1, 1120.2, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3592.5, +3.75
Short 2 TF 1123.9, 1124.2, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1125.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1128.8, -0.2
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.7
Short 2 TF 1120.1, 1120.2, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3592.5, +3.75
Short 2 TF 1123.9, 1124.2, +1.1, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1125.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1128.8, -0.2
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +2.7
Mon Feb 10 Trade Summary
20140210
Short 2 NQ 3569.0, 3569.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 3 YM 15734, 15734, 15730, +7, +10, +22,
Short 2 TF 1110.5, 1110.4, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3564.50, 3564.25, -1.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3564.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1105.8, 1105.5, -0.5, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1105.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3559.75, 3560.0, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM +39
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +1.9
Fri Feb 7 Trades & Journal
20140207
Short 1 TF 1109.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15625, 15625, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.9, +1.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.3
Total YM -0
Total TF +5.6
Trading at the edges requires a different mindset than many traders bring to their Plan. Floor traders like the edges, and I'm told I think like one. I trained with two who were indeed very talented. No doubt some of that rubbed off. But the better profits from trading at the edges come from the discipline of holding a runner and extending that hold into the excursion of the next Time Marker. That would indeed improve my trading immensely... ....but also require longer commitment to the screen. There's a trade off to every adjustment. ...a good weekend to all...
Short 1 TF 1109.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15625, 15625, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1103.7, 1103.9, +1.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.3
Total YM -0
Total TF +5.6
Trading at the edges requires a different mindset than many traders bring to their Plan. Floor traders like the edges, and I'm told I think like one. I trained with two who were indeed very talented. No doubt some of that rubbed off. But the better profits from trading at the edges come from the discipline of holding a runner and extending that hold into the excursion of the next Time Marker. That would indeed improve my trading immensely... ....but also require longer commitment to the screen. There's a trade off to every adjustment. ...a good weekend to all...
Thur Feb 6 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140206
Long 2 TF 1196.4, 1196.3, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1198.8, 1198.9, -0.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1198.4, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, -0.2, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3498.5, 3498.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1104.7, 1104.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.1
The Persistent Trend Day Up model is often devoid of big swings and extended pullback buy opportunities. Not so today in the TF contract, as the early grinding characteristic so hard to play inflicted only the ES, YM and NQ. ....so maybe this isn't a Persistent Trend Day Up for the TF.... The buy signals that hit the daily frame reversals yesterday could, however, stick for several days in this budding bear, and who knows, may prove to be just the base of another leg up in this endless bull market, the sell signals at the top in the daily frame this time notwithstanding. Today I balked at an excellent bull breakout play that is perfect for this day model, and opted instead for buying pullbacks and fading extremes. That can work well on any day where there are actually swings, but for a potential Persistent Trend Day Up model, that tactic's success today was nothing more than luck. I should have prepared myself better for the breakout play, as rehearsal can help to over come such blocks. Stay disciplined.
20140206
Long 2 TF 1196.4, 1196.3, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1198.8, 1198.9, -0.1, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1198.4, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, -0.2, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3498.5, 3498.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1104.7, 1104.6, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.1
The Persistent Trend Day Up model is often devoid of big swings and extended pullback buy opportunities. Not so today in the TF contract, as the early grinding characteristic so hard to play inflicted only the ES, YM and NQ. ....so maybe this isn't a Persistent Trend Day Up for the TF.... The buy signals that hit the daily frame reversals yesterday could, however, stick for several days in this budding bear, and who knows, may prove to be just the base of another leg up in this endless bull market, the sell signals at the top in the daily frame this time notwithstanding. Today I balked at an excellent bull breakout play that is perfect for this day model, and opted instead for buying pullbacks and fading extremes. That can work well on any day where there are actually swings, but for a potential Persistent Trend Day Up model, that tactic's success today was nothing more than luck. I should have prepared myself better for the breakout play, as rehearsal can help to over come such blocks. Stay disciplined.
Wed Feb 5 Trades & Journal
20140205
Short 2 TF 1093.1, 1093.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1092.2, 1092.2, +1.1, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1740.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, 0.5
Long 2 NQ 3438.0, 3438.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3437.0, 3437.0, +2.0, +10.0
Long 2 NQ 3430.5, 3430.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1185.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1084.2, 1084.2, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3420.5, 3420.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15285, 15285, +20, +20
Short 1 TF 1185.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1180.9, +1.2
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +40
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Persistence is such an important attribute when trading a plan. Not all the Trade Entry Models will work, and even though the model matches the structure, sometimes the volatility will take you out anyway. But the added volatility must be adjusted to work for your benefit. If the effort to get in a trade and stay in is more difficult and costs you more in stp-outs, all the more important to allow the trade targets to be extended to suit those same volatile excursions. Today, another key number from the all-session 60-min frame was key for the LOD, but the TF Trade Entry Model was incomplete. The YM, on the other hand was ready. But once in that YM trade, I I failed to show the outcome the patience to develop it deserved, and as a consequence left far too much of that excursion on the table. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1093.1, 1093.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1092.2, 1092.2, +1.1, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1740.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, 0.5
Long 2 NQ 3438.0, 3438.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3437.0, 3437.0, +2.0, +10.0
Long 2 NQ 3430.5, 3430.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1185.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1084.2, 1084.2, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3420.5, 3420.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 15285, 15285, +20, +20
Short 1 TF 1185.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1180.9, +1.2
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +40
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Persistence is such an important attribute when trading a plan. Not all the Trade Entry Models will work, and even though the model matches the structure, sometimes the volatility will take you out anyway. But the added volatility must be adjusted to work for your benefit. If the effort to get in a trade and stay in is more difficult and costs you more in stp-outs, all the more important to allow the trade targets to be extended to suit those same volatile excursions. Today, another key number from the all-session 60-min frame was key for the LOD, but the TF Trade Entry Model was incomplete. The YM, on the other hand was ready. But once in that YM trade, I I failed to show the outcome the patience to develop it deserved, and as a consequence left far too much of that excursion on the table. Stay focused.
Tues Feb 4 Trades and Journal
20140204
Long 2 YM 15296, 15296, +7, +30
Short 1 TF 1096.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.8, -0.5 -0.5
Short 3 TF 1099.5, 1099.5, 1099.6, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1100.2, 1100.2, +0.5 -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3449.25, 3449.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 3 TF 1197.8, 1197.8, 1197.6, +0.5, -0.8, +0.6
Long 1 TF 1096.10, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.1, 1094.3, +3.0, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3446.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1196.0, 1196.0, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +37
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +3.5
Volatility can be your friend. Or, it can be a brutal opponent. Be sure your entry models are exacting. Today, my exits were early for the most part, because--although once in place the impulse action was tremendous--I also stepped into trades too soon in several cases and was down initially in the TF. Wait for the models to complete. On volatile days, take a breath before executing and look it over once more, it might have greater distance to go before the turn is in. Increasing stop-loss length is a temptation, but if your entry models are exact, these bigger stops will probably just cost you unnecessary capital loss where a quick stp-out would have taken you to flat and as such, put you in a place more at ease as to whether the entry model has survived intact to re enter the trade. Stay focused. A volatile day is even more demanding of your complete attention.
Long 2 YM 15296, 15296, +7, +30
Short 1 TF 1096.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.8, -0.5 -0.5
Short 3 TF 1099.5, 1099.5, 1099.6, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1100.2, 1100.2, +0.5 -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3449.25, 3449.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 3 TF 1197.8, 1197.8, 1197.6, +0.5, -0.8, +0.6
Long 1 TF 1096.10, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.1, 1094.3, +3.0, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3446.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1196.0, 1196.0, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +37
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +3.5
Volatility can be your friend. Or, it can be a brutal opponent. Be sure your entry models are exacting. Today, my exits were early for the most part, because--although once in place the impulse action was tremendous--I also stepped into trades too soon in several cases and was down initially in the TF. Wait for the models to complete. On volatile days, take a breath before executing and look it over once more, it might have greater distance to go before the turn is in. Increasing stop-loss length is a temptation, but if your entry models are exact, these bigger stops will probably just cost you unnecessary capital loss where a quick stp-out would have taken you to flat and as such, put you in a place more at ease as to whether the entry model has survived intact to re enter the trade. Stay focused. A volatile day is even more demanding of your complete attention.
Mon Feb 3 Trades & Journal
20140203
Short 1 YM 15639, -9
Long 1 NQ 3515.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3512.25, 3512.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3500.5, 3500.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 3498.75, 3498.7, 3498.75, 3498.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0, +8.25
Short 1 TF 1121.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3491.25, 3491.75, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1109.9, 1109.9, +0.5, +1.7
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1193.6, 1193.8, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15389, 15392, +2.0, +7
Total YM +18
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +5.6
Big initial bear swoon busted through several support layers before the first turn set in. If the trade model for structure is still valid, this often requires re entry and as such can be disconcerting if stp'd out more than once positioning for it, as was the case today. However, the post news play was very solid and helped meet the 1st frame profit goals. However, a 2nd in-trend short appeared within the trade plan for the TF inflection breakdown, replete with a nice Pre-breakdown Pause Pattern. I balked at this as the familiar mental block to taking breakout trades appeared and asserted itself. There are several reasons why it important to overcome this type of block. It helps open the door for similar opportunities in the future, but just as much, it helps support the overall business that attempts to participate in these big moving trend days. It stings when you're left out of them and every trader wants to know that his methods can be applied no matter what Day Model is in play. Consider the filters of these more difficult trades. Be ready when they appear. Take the trade if the model is correct.
Addendum for PM:
The Last Chance Texaco is a trade model for late in the day on Persistent Trend Days, where pullback has recovered to a prescribed level. On some days, the market doesn't even make it that far, and weaker retracement levels can be targeted for entry. If those smaller pullback areas offer at least some resistance, it should allow you to partial out the trade and get to net break/even. After that, you let the market speak. In this case, TF bullish divergence encourage my YM short exit a bit too soon.
Short 1 YM 15639, -9
Long 1 NQ 3515.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3512.25, 3512.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3500.5, 3500.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 3498.75, 3498.7, 3498.75, 3498.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0, +8.25
Short 1 TF 1121.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3491.25, 3491.75, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1109.9, 1109.9, +0.5, +1.7
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1193.6, 1193.8, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15389, 15392, +2.0, +7
Total YM +18
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +5.6
Big initial bear swoon busted through several support layers before the first turn set in. If the trade model for structure is still valid, this often requires re entry and as such can be disconcerting if stp'd out more than once positioning for it, as was the case today. However, the post news play was very solid and helped meet the 1st frame profit goals. However, a 2nd in-trend short appeared within the trade plan for the TF inflection breakdown, replete with a nice Pre-breakdown Pause Pattern. I balked at this as the familiar mental block to taking breakout trades appeared and asserted itself. There are several reasons why it important to overcome this type of block. It helps open the door for similar opportunities in the future, but just as much, it helps support the overall business that attempts to participate in these big moving trend days. It stings when you're left out of them and every trader wants to know that his methods can be applied no matter what Day Model is in play. Consider the filters of these more difficult trades. Be ready when they appear. Take the trade if the model is correct.
Addendum for PM:
The Last Chance Texaco is a trade model for late in the day on Persistent Trend Days, where pullback has recovered to a prescribed level. On some days, the market doesn't even make it that far, and weaker retracement levels can be targeted for entry. If those smaller pullback areas offer at least some resistance, it should allow you to partial out the trade and get to net break/even. After that, you let the market speak. In this case, TF bullish divergence encourage my YM short exit a bit too soon.
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