20140203
Short 1 YM 15639, -9
Long 1 NQ 3515.5, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3512.25, 3512.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3500.5, 3500.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 4 NQ 3498.75, 3498.7, 3498.75, 3498.75, +2.0, +2.0, +4.0, +8.25
Short 1 TF 1121.8, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3491.25, 3491.75, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1109.9, 1109.9, +0.5, +1.7
PM Trades
Short 2 TF 1193.6, 1193.8, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15389, 15392, +2.0, +7
Total YM +18
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +5.6
Big initial bear swoon busted through several support layers before the first turn set in. If the trade model for structure is still valid, this often requires re entry and as such can be disconcerting if stp'd out more than once positioning for it, as was the case today. However, the post news play was very solid and helped meet the 1st frame profit goals. However, a 2nd in-trend short appeared within the trade plan for the TF inflection breakdown, replete with a nice Pre-breakdown Pause Pattern. I balked at this as the familiar mental block to taking breakout trades appeared and asserted itself. There are several reasons why it important to overcome this type of block. It helps open the door for similar opportunities in the future, but just as much, it helps support the overall business that attempts to participate in these big moving trend days. It stings when you're left out of them and every trader wants to know that his methods can be applied no matter what Day Model is in play. Consider the filters of these more difficult trades. Be ready when they appear. Take the trade if the model is correct.
Addendum for PM:
The Last Chance Texaco is a trade model for late in the day on Persistent Trend Days, where pullback has recovered to a prescribed level. On some days, the market doesn't even make it that far, and weaker retracement levels can be targeted for entry. If those smaller pullback areas offer at least some resistance, it should allow you to partial out the trade and get to net break/even. After that, you let the market speak. In this case, TF bullish divergence encourage my YM short exit a bit too soon.
