Fri May 28 2021 Trade Signals

20210528

 

Short 5 MNQ 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13707.75, 13707.75, 13707.75, 13707.75, 13707.75, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13726.0, 13726.0, 13726.0, 13726.0, 13726.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,

Short 10 MNQ 13729.0, 13729.0, 13729.0, 13729.0, 13729.0, 13730.25, 13730.25, 13730.25, 13730.25, 13730.25,+5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +10.75, +10.75, +10.75, +10.75, +10.75, 

 

Total MNQ  +31.25

 

Trading is full of imperfect execution.   ...both in Technical Event Confluence, and in target acquisition.   But even if your day if full of comprise, a Trade Plan still keeps your impulses and imperfect judgements intact if it is maintained with some discipline.   

 

In general, a Trade Plan should keep you away from the crowd.  Thus, I rely on Signal Confirmation, not Price Confirmation via pattern or bar pattern triggers, sometimes referred to as 'setups'.    Awaiting trend confirmation almost always puts you in with the majority.   The majority use some variation of the original Charles Drummond l-2-3 pattern trigger, made famous by Ken Roberts and his use of it the physical commodities, and the Joe Ross renaming it as the Ross Hook in the smaller time frames for intraday futures trading.  (Although it uses a different method, Mark Fisher's ACBD 15 min OR can be included in general as a breakout system that relies on price confirmation, but the stop-outs are even more brutal to the bank account. It's avoidance of stop-outs relies on the presence of the Persistent Trend Day pattern, a day model that occurs roughly only some 4 days out of the 21 day trading month. )

 

Most of the time this kind of trigger-into-trend confirmation is nothing more than the market reloading itself with traders who have freshly hooked themselves into positions in the wrong direction.  Thus the market is fed further as these traders are subsequently stopped out.  

 

Instead, if you consider that confirmation can come alternatively as disparate technical signals arriving in confluence at certain places of exhaustion--both in structure and in momentum, then the places deeper into the reversal where so those using techniques listed above will be finally tripped into the market on the assumption of reversal confirmation, can be used to exit partial positions by those of us who chose Signal Confirmation instead of Price Confirmation as our entry triggers.  We're getting part of our position out as profits where these breakout traders are just getting in.  This keeps us well out of the crowded company of 90% of the majority of traders.  

 

But on days when a true confluence of technical events afford clear entry opportunities, those of us looking for extremes to fade still suffer our share of stop-outs, and then rely on trade entry concepts that are, for the most part, incomplete as to the desired totality of possible confluence.   

 

It's once again Memorial Day...  a time to remember all those who have come before, and especially those who fell, making the ultimate sacrifice that the rest of us could enjoy the benefits of freedom, here in the greatest nation the history of civilization has yet produced.  I salute them all, and proclaim with them loudly "Freedom First!!!"  There is no peace without it.    ...and God bless all ....

Thurs May 27 2021

20210527

 

Short 5 MNQ 13682.5, 13682.5, 13682.5, 13682.5, 13682.5, +20.75, +20.75, +20.75, +20.75, +20.75, 

Short 5 MNQ  13664.25, 13664.25, 13664.25, 13664.25, 13664.25, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13666.75, 13666.75, 13666.75, 13666.75, 13666.75, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short 5 MNQ  13676.75, 13676.75, 13676.75, 13676.75, 13676.75, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Short 5 MNQ 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 5 MES 4207.5, 4207.5, 4207.5, 4207.5, 4207.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13700.75, 13700.75, 13700.75, 13700.75, 13700.75, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13704.25, 13704.25, 13704.25, 13704.25, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 

Short 5 MNQ  13706.5, 13706.5, 13706.5, 13706.5, 13706.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 

Short 10 MNQ 13708.0, 13708.0, 13708.0, 13708.0, 13708.0, 13709.75, 13709.75, 13709.75, 13709.75, 13709.75, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75,

Short 5 MNQ 13713.25, 13713.25, 13713.25, 13713.25, 13713.25, -3.0, 

Short 10 MNQ 13715.5, 13715.5, 13715.5, 13715.5, 13715.5, 13714.25, 13714.25, 13714.25, 13714.25, 13714.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 MNQ  13708.75, 13708.75, 13708.75, 13708.75, 13708.75, +25.25, +25.25, +25.25, +25.25, +25.25, 

 

Total MES -12.5

Total MNQ +55.0 

 

Three frustrating days in a row for my trading.   And it seems those three days can claim about the same faults to my trading each time.   And although the last two days were about net break-even in the P&L column, it's always the profitable trades you fail to take rather than the losing trades you make that bother you the most.   

 

The MNQ is a bit notorious for over-spill at the turning points.   It takes the form of liquid mercury, and so earns that action nick-name description.   But if all other elements to the trade model are, in fact, present and in place at those general areas, there is one final positioning allowance in my Trade Plan that would allow me to re-enter one final time.  I refer to it as 'Lifting your position with an order at stop-out.'   And it can be described thus: Instead of extending your stop endlessly at this mercurial turning points, when Momentum, Exhaustion Grid and the fractal algorithm Serial Sequent are all in place, and yet another spike of unpredictable extent might take you out of position, keep your stop in tight.  Allow the stop-out, and simply witness the extend of that next price spike.   If it continues well above current action, do nothing, and await further algorithm signals as price structure proceeds.  But if instead, this extra breakout is a dud, have a stop to enter at about the same place you had entered on in the previous order.   And if the final stop-out spike turns out to be just the over-spill necessary to ignite a true reversal, you are back in the trade in the intended direction.   Use the extent of this final price spike as your stop-loss of the re-entered position, and trail to break-even if the reversal truly sets.    

 

On all three of the last days, this technique would have re-positioned me for the impulsive, profit producing reversal I was so diligently trying to capture in the first place.   

Wed May 26 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210526

 

Short 5 MNQ 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5,+19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, 

Long 5 MES  4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 2 RTY 2228.5, 2229.0, -1.5, -1.5

Short 5 MNQ 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 15 MNQ 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 5 MES 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, 

Short 1 RTY 2233.2, 2233.5, +2.2, -0.4

Short 5 MNQ 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,

Short 5 MNQ 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75,  -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 1 RTY 2234.3, -0.8

Short 5 MNQ 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5,  -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13689.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Long 10 MNQ 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13681.75,  +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, 

 

Total MES -2.5

Total MNQ +23.75

Total RTY -2.0

 

While watching the market in the smallest time frames, you can't help but notice the dramatic bifurcation between indices.   As the NQ pushes down, the RTY will often seem repelled upward, as if the two indices had faced off like matching poles of two magnets.  This same phenom can be noticed just as dramatically at times between the NQ and the YM contracts.   There, it might be explained as flight to quality in the Dow stocks as the high-tech/glamours meet liquidation.  

 

The tricky part, however, is that these relationships are not consistent.   ...and remain inconsistent not only from day to day, but even intraday, from one hour to the next.   Sometimes this relationship seems to 'find itself' after a shift in leadership, something you have to be on the alert for all the time, as a futures trader.    ....so in other words, high priced, end-of-bull froth and end-of-trend action is very taxing to the skills required to navigate reversals and break-outs successfully.    

 

Although far more harrowing and dramatic at the crash lows of market bottoms, this phenom nearly disappears.    At market lows, they all move in tandem, like one giant flock of birds.    But when gathering for a possible change of trend around all time highs, there's is no continuity, no confluence and no consistency of this irregular bifurcation to latch onto as reliable technical signals.    

 

...but that is all an excuse for a miserable morning of frustration, of course.   And in hindsight, I can certainly pick apart places where my short term trend prejudice definitely interred with better management, and more precise management policy.   

 

This biggest fault of the morning remains an old standby.   That is, having failed to find the turn near the lows of the 1st trend with fade opportunities, I then, eager for trades, stepped into fading the 2nd trend back up, usually too soon, and almost always with stop-outs, eating up a few profits from early trades, and eventually going slightly negative for the day.    

 

First Trends are almost always false.   Second Trends are the where the surprises hided.   Face the current and fade the first trend for early profits, and look for any close breakout triggers into further extensions of the budding Second Trend.   Fade Second Trends are great risk, and only at places of huge momentum climax.   You know you've stepped into hot water when normal support-resistance and exhaustion zones are overcome.   Instead, step back, wait patiently for a pullback, and try to get in sync with the budding 2nd Trend.

Tues May 25 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210525

 

Short 1 NQ 13697.75, -3.0

Short 1 NQ 13706.25, +20.5

Long 1 NQ 13646.5, +21.25

Short 1 NQ 12678.75, -3.25

Short 1 NQ 13683.5, +10.0

 

Total NQ +45.5

 

I use to say that a day without a good NQ trade was like a day without sunshine.   ...then I switched to MNQ because the extreme market volatility and index price weighting had made even an NQ E-mini pretty hot to handle...    but the real issue isn't the contract you trade, but the market environment offered to trade in.   Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day up for the 1st Frame in the NQ was nothing short of painful.  Persistent Trend Day's are like trading Wheat.   But today's swing volatility was a beautious thing, and it's those kinds of days that short term traders in the stock index futures thrive on...     

 

You seldom get two Persistent Trend Days in a row in the same direction.   You may get plenty of up days in a row (seldom more than ten or so), but the Persistent Trend Day is a specific model, and unless you are prepared to trade the whole until a Last Chance Texaco pullback finally appears, usually towards the end of the Second Frame, you can starve all morning, lose your maximum money stop, or just tread water in frustration and the numerous stop-outs and too-shallow-of-pullback opportunities to really get in sync with it all.   ....and what a pleasure it is trading the bigger contract again....   

Mon May 24 2021 Trade Signals

20210524 

Short 1 RTY 2228.4, -0.5, 

Short 1 RTY 2228.7, -0.9

Short 5 MNQ 13586.5, 13586.5, 13586.5, 13586.5, 13586.5, 13587.5, 13587.5, 13587.5, 13587.5, 13587.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Short 5 MES 4187.25, 4187.25, 4187.25, 4187.25, 4187.25,  -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 5 MNQ 13590.25, 13590.25, 13590.25, 13590.25, 13590.25, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Short 10 M 13591.25, 13591.25, 13591.25, 13591.25, 13591.25, 13591.5, 13591.5, 13591.5, 13591.5, 13591.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 1 RTY 2232.5 +6.0

Short 15 MNQ 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25, 13636.25,13637.25, 13637.25, 13637.25, 13637.25, 13637.25,+10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, +10.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Short 10 MNQ 13639.25, 13639.25, 13639.25, 13639.25, 13639.25, 13639.75, 13639.75, 13639.75, 13639.75, 13639.75, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Short 15 MNQ 13651.76, 13651.76, 13651.76, 13651.76, 13651.76, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, 13652.75, +4.5, +4.5, +4.5, +4.5, +4.5, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short 10 MNQ  13655.5, 13655.5, 13655.5, 13655.5, 13655.5, 13655.75, 13655.75, 13655.75, 13655.75, 13655.75,  +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

 

Total MES -11.25

Total MNQ +8.75

Total RTY +4.6

 

Fri May 21 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210521

 

Long 5 MNQ 13523.25, 13523.25, 13523.25, 13523.25, 13523.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13510.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13503.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, Short 5 MNQ 13520.5, 13520.5, 13520.5, 13520.5, 13520.5, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 10 MNQ 13522.5, 13522.5, 13522.5, 13522.5, 13522.5,13519.5, 13519.5, 13519.5, 13519.5, 13519.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13544.75, 13544.75, 13544.75, 13544.75, 13544.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13545.25, 13545.25, 13545.25, 13545.25, 13545.25,+26.0, +26.0, +26.0, +26.0, +26.0, 

Long 10 MNQ 13464.25, 13464.25, 13464.25, 13464.25, 13464.25, 13467.5, 13467.5, 13467.5, 13467.5, 13467.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13465.75, 13465.75, 13465.75, 13465.75, 13465.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13450.5, 13450.5, 13450.5, 13450.5, 13450.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Short 2 RTY 2231.7, 2232.3, +2.3, +6.1 

 

Total MNQ +20.0 

Total RTY +8.4 

 

One of the great blessings we all share when trading the index futures is the separation into separate indices the totality of the stock universe. So many times when action is sloppy in the one, it will seem to clear up and make some technical sense in one of the others. So it is so often between the Russell 2k Midcap Index, the Nasdaq Index of technology / glamour, and the S&P big caps grouping. And although it requires some higher levels of concentration to keep an eye on these at the same time, the efforts of a day's mixed opportunities and set-backs usually benefits from the efforts. 

 

...and a good weekend to all....

Thurs May 20 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210520

 

Short 5 MNQ 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5,

Short 15 MNQ 13412.5, 13412.5, 13412.5, 13412.5, 13412.5, 13412.25, 13412.25, 13412.25, 13412.25, 13412.25, 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, 13410.5, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0,+12.0, +12.0, +12.0, +12.0, +12.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13416.25,  13416.25, 13416.25, 13416.25, 13416.25, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Short 10 MNQ 13429.75, 13429.75, 13429.75, 13429.75, 13429.75, 13432.25, 13432.25, 13432.25, 13432.25, 13432.25, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13440.5, 13440.5, 13440.5, 13440.5, 13440.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, 

Short 5 MNQ  13442.0, 13442.0, 13442.0, 13442.0, 13442.0, 13441.25, 13441.25, 13441.25, 13441.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13455.0, 13455.0, 13455.0, 13455.0, 13455.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 5 MES  4148.75, 4148.75, 4148.75, 4148.75, 4148.75, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Short 10 MNQ 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, 13458.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13464.5, 13464.5, 13464.5, 13464.5, 13464.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 10 MNQ 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Short 5 MES 4155.25, 4155.25, 4155.25, 4155.25, 4155.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Short 2 YM 34128, 34128, -7, -7

Short 10 MNQ 13486.75, 13486.75, 13486.75, 13486.75, 13486.75, 13486.25, 13486.25, 13486.25, 13486.25, 13486.25, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5,

Short 10 13490.25, 13490.25, 13490.25, 13490.25, 13490.25, 13490.75, 13490.75, 13490.75, 13490.75, 13490.75, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Short 5 MES 4159.5, 4159.5, 4159.5, 4159.5, 4159.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Short 2 YM 34155, 34155, -8, -8

Short 15 MNQ 13502.0, 13502.0, 13502.0, 13502.0, 13502.0, 13501.5, 13501.5, 13501.5, 13501.5, 13501.5, 13500.0, 13500.0, 13500.0, 13500.0, 13500.0,  +27.25, +27.25, +27.25, +27.25, +27.25, +12.75, +12.75, +12.75, +12.75, +12.75, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, 

 

Total MES -22.5

Total MNQ +163.75

Total YM -30

 

As intraday futures traders, we depend on swings for entry signals.  Without those swings, price tends to be vertical....either straight down with little if any significant bounce to enter a short, or straight up, sometimes accelerating into a true crescendo of short covering.   Both those conditions are nearly impossible trade...  unless you can credit yourself as being prescient.   

 

But in almost every one of those moves, there was a pullback, often early on, that would have provided you an entry to go-with, with an in trend position.   And on such days, those pullbacks usually appear just too shallow to warrant risking an in-trend position on a market that has already gone so far...      And in just such days as today, do we look back down the mountainside from which price has miraculously ascended, to that pitifully shallow pullback that certainly seemed way too unsubstantial at the time, to the only real opportunity you had to get on board the unanticipated explosion that was to follow.   

 

Today was just such a day.    And instead of risking that one shallow pullback signal I was able to identify, I repeatedly shorted on the way up until the trend was truly exhausted, only to get back losses and put the painful job of trying to find the big turn deep enough into the red that getting back to black only recaptured about what I lost on the way up.   

 

I need to learn from that experience of passing up the shallow pullbacks and grab onto the in-trend plays.   It is all the more discouraging to think how many times I have had to enter this into my blog.   Tomorrow's action should be in contrast to today's, Yin-Yang, and if so, swings in both directions should give better results from intraday swing signals in the First Frame. 

Wed May 19 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210519 

Long 5 MNQ 13010.0, 13010.0, 13010.0, 13010.0, 13010.0, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 12998.75, 12998.75, 12998.75, 12998.75, 12998.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 10 MNQ 12984.25, 12984.25, 12984.25, 12984.25, 12984.25, 12986.0, 12986.0, 12986.0, 12986.0, 12986.0, +54.25, +54.25, +54.25, +54.25, +54.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

 

Total MNQ +296.25

 

Volatility tends to alternate between Frames.   If the action is choppy and consolidating for the 1st Frame of the day (until around 11:15am ET), then the volatility is more likely to show up in the 2nd and Last Frames of the day.  Just study the charts of yesterday.  In fact, the only trade in the MNQ that I was able to profit by yesterday was a volatility breakout that didn't show up until the beginning of the 2nd Frame.   And the tremendous volatility of yesterday's last Frame certainly provided a lot of opportunity I was not in front of the screen to take advantage of, as I only trade the 1st Frame of the day now.   

 

Today, it was just the opposite, as least so far as I post this blog.   The volatility was so extreme in the early going of the 1st Frame that I was able to practically call it one-and-done, as the initial MNQ buy signal provided such a great launch upward into new highs territory that I was easily able to make a profit goal, albeit after two small stop-outs.

 

One final word about the underlying skills and discipline to activity of trading as a whole.  A plethora of new subscribers have stepped into the fire since the opening of the ValhallaFutures trade room.   Many of them have watch our profit / loss postings over the years in this blog, and wondered what the 'secret' was that I was using.   They incorrectly assume that it must be something close to the Holy Grail of technical tricks, and that if only they could get their hands on it, they too would be able to turn around their futures trading..   

 

Nothing could be further from the truth.   For in order for a trader who is unsatisfied with their results to turn the outcomes around, it is NOT the retooling with new technical tricks that will lead them into it.....    Instead, it is the ability and willingness to change themselves that lies in the heart of self improvement.  

 

What I find most traders to be suffering from--and I have coached many hundreds over the years--is the misconception that acquiring a new tool while basically repeating the same behavior will somehow lead them to different results.  

 

I can't tell you how many times I have heard from a new trader "I can't take trades where he takes them"--even though it was partially the technical tools I was using that signaled me to be doing so.   In other words, they were unable to change themselves, and like so many unfortunate adults in the related world of personal politics, found the amber trap of their trading 'adolescence' made them too unable to move.  

 

For more on the subject of the need for personal change in order to become a better trader, I refer you to the little book that started a wholesale re-engineering of everything I thought I knew about both the technical and the psychological aspects of trading, True Self, available inexpensively on line.

Tues May 18 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210518 

Short 5 MNQ 13334.5, 13334.5, 13334.5, 13334.5, 13334.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Short 5 MNQ 13336.5, 13336.5, 13336.5, 13336.5, 13336.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13322.5, 13322.5, 13322.5, 13322.5, 13322.5, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13313.0, 13313.0, 13313.0, 13313.0, 13313.0, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, 

Short 5 MES  4160.5, 4160.5, 4160.5, 4160.5, 4160.5, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13384.0, 13384.0, 13384.0, 13384.0, 13384.0, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,

Short 10 MNQ 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, 13386.75, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13367.75, 13367.75, 13367.75, 13367.75, 13367.75, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, 

 

Total MES +20.0

Total MNQ +16.75

 

Some days are better for trading than others.... 

 

Mon May 17 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210517

 

Short 1 RTY 2217.2, -0.4

Long 5 MES 4157.0, 4157.0, 4157.0, 4157.0, 4157.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, 

Long 1 RTY 2708.2, -0.6

Long 5 MNQ 13283.25, 13283.25, 13283.25, 13283.25, 13283.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13260.75, 13260.75, 13260.75, 13260.75, 13260.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 

Long 5 MNQ  13244.5, 13244.5, 13244.5, 13244.5, 13244.5,+18.0, +18.0, +18.0, +18.0, +18.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13326.75, 13326.75, 13326.75, 13326.75, 13326.75, +17.75, +17.75, +17.75, +17.75, +17.75, 

 

Total MES -5.0

Total MNQ  +155.0

Total RTY -1.0

Fri May 14 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210514

Long MNQ 13212.25, 13212.25, 13212.25, 13212.25, 13212.25, +23.0, +23.0, +23.0, +23.0, +23.0, 

Short 1 RTY  2189.7, -0.9

Short 1 RTY 2193.4, +3.0

Short 5 MNQ 13242.5, 13242.5, 13242.5, 13242.5, 13242.5, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13278.0, 13278.0, 13278.0, 13278.0, 13278.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13282.0, 13282.0, 13282.0, 13282.0, 13282.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Short 1 RTY 2208.1,  +6.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13285.0, 13285.0, 13285.0, 13285.0, 13285.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13287.25, 13287.25, 13287.25, 13287.25, 13287.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13286.75,  13286.75, 13286.75, 13286.75, 13286.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13298.0, 13298.0, 13298.0, 13298.0, 13298.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0 

 Short 5 MNQ 13316.5, 13316.5, 13316.5, 13316.5, 13316.5, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13319.5, 13319.5, 13319.5, 13319.5, 13319.5, 13320.0, 13320.0, 13320.0, 13320.0, 13320.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13340.75, 13340.75, 13340.75, 13340.75, 13340.75, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, 

 

Total MNQ +111.25

Total RTY +8.1

 

Thur May 13 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210513

 

Short 5 MNQ 13140.25, 13140.25, 13140.25, 13140.25, 13140.25,+30.5, +30.5, +30.5, +30.5, +30.5, 

Short 10 M2K,  2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, 2171.5, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, 

Short 10 M2K  2176.8, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7,

Short 10 M2K 2177.3, 2177.7, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0,  -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, 

Short 5 M2K 2178.3,  2178.3, 2178.3, 2178.3, 2178.3, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13195.25, 13195.25, 13195.25, 13195.25, 13195.25, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, 

Short 5 MNQ  13211.25, 13211.25, 13211.25, 13211.25, 13211.25, +28.0, +28.0, +28.0, +28.0, +28.0, 

 

Total M2K -27.5

Total MNQ +380.0

 

There are three to six elements that can be feathered into a complete Technical Entry Event for futures trading.  Momentum, Pivot-Exhaustion price levels, Time Markers, Breadth / Leadership of Signal, Day Model and Fractal Algorithm.  Of these, Momentum, Pivot-Exhaustion Grid numbers and Fractal Algorithm are sort of a base minimum requirement before Entries should be triggered.   

 

But what if the Pivot-Exhaustion Grid number you are relying on as that last pre-entry element is simply the wide zone of an end-of-trend thrust finalé?  It's not like a trader has infinite stop-loss allowance to accommodate such unpredictable price spikes...  Where to actually get in?  

 

Two critical elements of price behavior can offer significant assistance.  The first is Rule of Alternation.  Borrowed from the Elliott Wave boys (one of the few useful things I ever garnered from that painfully clumsy school of thought).   As applied to Fractal Algorithm, it simply states small waves are likely to follow big, and if no big waves are yet apparent in the trend, the trend is likely to finish in one.  

 

The second is End-of-Bar.  If you are unfamiliar with this item, just open a gadget clock on your desktop with a sweeping second hand.  As the market opens each day, up date your O/S clock to the atomic clock, in order to sync it to the second.   Then keep an eye on end-of-trends, and imagine your entry action having waited for the end of bar.   You be amazed at how close you can come to entering on the actual turns, given you did, indeed, wait for the proper climax in momentum and have crossed a price level from the Exhaustion Grid. 

 

...and good trading to all...

 

Wed May 12 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210512

Long 1 RTY 2180.0, +5.9

Short 5 MNQ 13221.75,  13221.75, 13221.75, 13221.75, 13221.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 5 MNQ  13116.75, 13116.75, 13116.75, 13116.75, 13116.75, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, 

Long 5 MNQ 13114.5, 13114.5, 13114.5, 13114.5, 13114.5, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0,

Long 10 MNQ 13084.25, 13084.25, 13084.25, 13084.25, 13084.25, 13086.0, 13086.0, 13086.0, 13086.0, 13086.0,  -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, +7.50, +7.50, +7.50, +7.50, +7.50, 

Long 10 MNQ 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, 13074.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5

Long 10 MNQ 13072.0, 13072.0, 13072.0, 13072.0, 13072.0, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,

Long 10 MNQ 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, 13063.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Long 15 MNQ 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13058.5, 13061.25, 13061.25, 13061.25, +22.25, +22.25, +22.25, +22.25, +22.25,  -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,

Long 10 MNQ 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, 13045.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 10 MNQ 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, 13037.75, +20.00, +20.00, +20.00, +20.00, +20.00, +31.0, +31.0, +31.0, +31.0, +31.0, 

 

Total MNQ  +235.0

Total RTY +5.9

 

"Second trends are where the surprises hide," my mentor use to remind me.  But he didn't seem to remind me enough of the mental trap we find ourselves in when failing to capture the turn between the 1st and 2nd trends.   As having been stopped out trying to find it, I was left looking for trades to fulfill my daily goal, and for the most part, either stepped into appraised 2nd trend turns too soon, or failed to get out with more scalp-like profits from turns I was able to identify correctly.    

 

As it so often happens, the more substantial reversal came as the 2nd Frame was coming to an end, where my persistence at holding on for some complexity (read that as my stubbornness) finally clawed my way into a goal-reaching bounce.  

 

My opening remarks in the room turned to be prescient.  ...that the previous two days of trading had been a little too easy, and a more difficult time in our current volatility was likely to show up with repeated attempts and stop-out recoveries...    welcome to Nasdaq futures trading.... 

Tues May 11 Trade Signal Summary

20210511 

Long 5 MNQ 13188.75, 13188.75, 13188.75, 13188.75, 13188.75, +38.75, +38.75, +38.75, +38.75, +38.75, 

Long 1 RTY  2179.0, +6.2

 

Total MNQ +193.75

Total RTY +6.2

Mon May 10 2021 Trade Signal Summary

 20210510

 

Long 5 MNQ 13537.75, 13537.75, 13537.75, 13537.75, 13537.75, +19.50, +19.50, +19.50, +19.50, +19.50, 

Short 5 MNQ  13547.25, 13547.25, 13547.25, 13547.25, 13547.25, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0,

Short 5 MNQ  13523.75, 13523.75, 13523.75, 13523.75, 13523.75, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

 

Total MNQ +192.50

 

Fri May 7 2021 no trade calls, Happy Covid 2nd Shot Day... we'll see...

Thurs May 6 2021 No trade calls, Internet black out

Wed May 5 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210505

 

Short 1 RTY 2246.4, +8.1

 

Total RTY +8.1

 

No, this was not a one-and-done day.   After yesterday's persistent grind, today was far more likely to give swing signals in the 1st frame..     but it was apparently one-and-done for my cable internet, because after just a few minutes, it began kicking me out of our VF Trade Room Zoomcast, and eventually shut down altogether.    ....technician on the way...   stay tuned, tomorrow's room somewhat in doubt..      all the best otherwise... 

Tues May 4 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210504

 

Long 5 MNQ 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.25, 13611.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Long 1 YM 33824, -8

Long 5 MNQ 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, 13586.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,

Long 5 MNQ 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, 13581.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 5 MES 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, 4144.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Long 5 MNQ  13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, 13540.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,

Long 1 RTY 2227.8, -0.8

Long 1 RTY 2227.2, -1.4 

Long 1 RTY 2225.4,  -1.5 

Long 10 MNQ 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13513.5, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, 13514.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,

Long 10 MNQ 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13599.50, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, 13503.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0,

Long 5 MNQ   13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, 13474.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, 13470.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Long 5 MNQ  13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, 13459.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 

Long 5 MNQ  13429.25, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, 13404.5, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Long 5 MNQ  13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, 13396.5, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, 

 

Total MES -7.5

Total MNQ +92.5

Total YM -8

Total RTY -3.7

 

I practically preach the dominance of the Test-n-Reject Day Model, and so with it, the fading of the first trend in order to position for the complex move back up...    But what do you do with such grinding, endless 1st trends that require repeated re-entries and stop-outs clear until the Noon Hour?    ....you try to survive for another day...     These are easily the most challenging days I've ever experienced.    

 

one other point...   take note of the moment you personally capitulate from all further efforts..    the event you seek is close at hand....  

Mon May 21 2021 Trade Signals & Journal

20210503

 

 

Short 1 RTY 2284.5, -1.5

Short 1 RTY 2286.7, +5.5

Short 5 MNQ  13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, 13884.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13891.50, 13891.50, 13891.50, 13891.50,  +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, 13908.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 5 MNQ 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, 13921.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25, +12.25,

Short 5 MNQ 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50, -5.50,

Short 5 MNQ 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, 13946.25, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5,

 Long 5 MNQ 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, 13889.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, 13883.25, -1.25,  -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, 13864.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, 13850.0, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13844.25, 13844.25, 13844.25, 13844.25,  -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13791.5,  13791.5, 13791.5, 13791.5, 13791.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,

Long 5 MNQ 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, 13785.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

 Long 5 MNQ 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, 13780.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

 

Total RTY +4.0

Total MNQ +142.75

 

The dreaded Two-Side Test-n-Reject Day Model...       Usually, the first trend of the day is false, and the second is true.  That makes the high percentage game of fading the first trend in order to position for the more likely bound.  But what if can't find the turn of the first trend?   And you put no profits under your belt, and find yourself unpositioned for the ensuing bounce, as I was today?   

Hungry for a trade is how you find yourself mentally.   ...not a good place to be.     That 2nd trend is often accompanied by surprises as it extends beyond resistances.   Initially, I got caught trying to short that trend because there was no signal to buy as the first selling trend in the Nasdaq developed below the ORB.   As a trader that leaves you looking for trades as price works back up.   And with the observation that there was insufficient WorkDone accomplished in that first low, your expectations are that the rise in price is merely a pullback, and should be shorted.    

 

But as price developed into that rise, the MNQ exploded through a bevy of resistance numbers otherwise ideal to have reversed that bounce back into the bear.    Now the bull and the surprise 2nd trend seems to have been confirmed.    And what does this do to your psychology and trend prejudice?    

 

If positioned successfully as that 2nd trend reaches a short term climax, you see no harm in taking a short with the expectations that it is at least worthy of a scalp.   And as it does indeed begin to relax, you begin to look for the buying opportunities to get in sync with that 2nd trend that failed to materialize at the lows of the 1st trend sell-off.    So naturally, you cover your successful short position and begin to watch for that buy opportunity....   

 

Only it doesn't materialize, and presented with a new "2nd trend" back in the direction of the orignal 1st trend, which you mistakenly learned was 'false', you naturally step in to longs too soon, only to be further surprised, at the extent to which this selling wipes through every support level NQ had established for the last month.   

 

It is no comfort in the meantime, that the rest of the market, having ignored the huge rally advance, now was mostly ignoring the selling too, making the NQ the only game in town to stay with.

   

What do you do?    Sure, you'd like again to sell a bounce, believing this time the down trend is true...   but they give you no bounces to short into... just more selling breaks against extreme climax readings that prior experiences with more 'normal' days have taught you to avoid.    

 

You keep your head, keep an eye on the exhaustion levels, buy-stop the market as those exhaustion levels are breached, and when the expected vacuum is filled post-stop runs, you move your own stops in tight, and suffer minimal losses until a more complex bounce can finally afford you a decent enough target to make up for losses and produce decent net gains.    

 

You could also stay out on days like this and wait for tomorrow...    but what would be the fun in that....          cya manana