20210526
Short 5 MNQ 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5, 13702.5,+19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5, +19.5,
Long 5 MES 4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, 4184.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,
Short 5 MNQ 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, 13671.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
Short 2 RTY 2228.5, 2229.0, -1.5, -1.5
Short 5 MNQ 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, 13680.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 15 MNQ 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13684.25, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13687.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, 13691.0, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
Short 5 MES 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, 4191.0, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5, +2.5,
Short 1 RTY 2233.2, 2233.5, +2.2, -0.4
Short 5 MNQ 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, 13700.5, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,
Short 5 MNQ 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, 13703.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 1 RTY 2234.3, -0.8
Short 5 MNQ 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, 13714.5, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5, 13693.5, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25,
Long 5 MNQ 13689.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 10 MNQ 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13683.25, 13681.75, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5, +10.5,
Total MES -2.5
Total MNQ +23.75
Total RTY -2.0
While watching the market in the smallest time frames, you can't help but notice the dramatic bifurcation between indices. As the NQ pushes down, the RTY will often seem repelled upward, as if the two indices had faced off like matching poles of two magnets. This same phenom can be noticed just as dramatically at times between the NQ and the YM contracts. There, it might be explained as flight to quality in the Dow stocks as the high-tech/glamours meet liquidation.
The tricky part, however, is that these relationships are not consistent. ...and remain inconsistent not only from day to day, but even intraday, from one hour to the next. Sometimes this relationship seems to 'find itself' after a shift in leadership, something you have to be on the alert for all the time, as a futures trader. ....so in other words, high priced, end-of-bull froth and end-of-trend action is very taxing to the skills required to navigate reversals and break-outs successfully.
Although far more harrowing and dramatic at the crash lows of market bottoms, this phenom nearly disappears. At market lows, they all move in tandem, like one giant flock of birds. But when gathering for a possible change of trend around all time highs, there's is no continuity, no confluence and no consistency of this irregular bifurcation to latch onto as reliable technical signals.
...but that is all an excuse for a miserable morning of frustration, of course. And in hindsight, I can certainly pick apart places where my short term trend prejudice definitely interred with better management, and more precise management policy.
This biggest fault of the morning remains an old standby. That is, having failed to find the turn near the lows of the 1st trend with fade opportunities, I then, eager for trades, stepped into fading the 2nd trend back up, usually too soon, and almost always with stop-outs, eating up a few profits from early trades, and eventually going slightly negative for the day.
First Trends are almost always false. Second Trends are the where the surprises hided. Face the current and fade the first trend for early profits, and look for any close breakout triggers into further extensions of the budding Second Trend. Fade Second Trends are great risk, and only at places of huge momentum climax. You know you've stepped into hot water when normal support-resistance and exhaustion zones are overcome. Instead, step back, wait patiently for a pullback, and try to get in sync with the budding 2nd Trend.