20220412
Short 3 M2K 2017.6, 2017.6, 2017.6, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,
Short 3 MES 4448.25, 4448.25, 4448.25, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,
Short 3 M2K 2018.3, 2018.3, 2018.3, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,
Short 3 MES 4460.0, 4460.0, 4460.0, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,
Short 3 M2K 2025.9, 2025.9, 2025.9, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5,
Short 3 MNQ 14239.75, 14239.75, 14239.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 14257.75, 14257.75, 14257.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 6 MNQ 14265.5, 14265.5, 14265.5, 14264.25, 14264.25, 14264.25, +31.75, +31.75, +31.75, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14219.5, 14219.5, 14219.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14206.25, 14206.25, 14206.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14180.0, 14180.0, 14180.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14133.25, 14133.25, 14133.25, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,
Long 3 MNQ 14112.5, 14112.5, 14112.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14104.5, 14104.5, 14104.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14100.0, 14100.0, 14100.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14097.25, 14097.25, 14097.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 14095.25, 14095.25, 14095.25, +15.0, +15.0, +15.0
PM Trades:
Short 3 M2K 1985.7, 1985.7, 1985.7, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2,
Short 3 M2K 1985.7, 1985.7, 1985.7, -0.2, -0.2, -0.2,
Total MES -15.0
Total MNQ +36.75
Total M2K -14.7
If the 1st Trend tends to be false ("If they go up fast, they seldom last," as my mentor tried so often to remind me), then the 2nd Trend tends to be true. That is why I try so aggressively to fade the 1st Trend. Many students and most observers would interpret this as a stubborn determination to be a counter-trend trader. But if the 1st Trend does tend to be false, and there are more such Test-n-Reject Day Models than Persistent Trend Day Models, then, in fact, fading the 1st Trend is IN trend, and often simply part of an extended pullback to the true underlying trend. (For examples and definitions to these day models, see the workbook Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, with links to vendors online through the ValhallaFutures.com website.)
In truth, I have always found the identification of the true trend ('the trend is your friend', and other such commonly accepted trading axioms) to be academic, and even argumentative. After all, isn't it always dependent upon time frame?
So more to the point, how can you recognize that a budding swing reversal in the 1st Frame of the day is actually a 2nd trend and not just a pullback to the 1st? Here are some items to look for:
The 1st Trend, especially if an uptrend, tends to 'swoon'. And as part of this swoon seems to gather in momentum, gathering into a high volatility climax, characterized by bigger and bigger wave fractals. It tends to blow through supposed resistances like the proverbial hot knife through butter.
This does two important things to watch for, and leaves the majority of participants in the same condition. First, they have losses to their trading day; not usually an easy thing to overcome. And they face the rest of the frame in kind of a catch-up mode, just trying to break-even, which complicates future mistakes.
And Second, it conditions their mind set into thinking the 1st Trend is the True Trend, and all price retracements are the needed potential pullbacks to get right with this now proven trend direction. But take note of such days carefully. Gauge this frame of mind as a strong warning alarm to caution. "Nature loves to hide", noted Heraclitus. And the more a recent action has demonstrated to you emotionally the direction of its intention--as only trade losses really can--the better disguised it is to proceed into a counter trend move luring you in as if just the pullback you need to get right on. ...and just so do your losses then mount.
..and you'd think someone with as much time in front of a trading screen as I have would be less likely to succumb to such traps. And yet, there I was today, buying the MNQ pullback right into my grave, after being unable to secure a short near the high of the day after repeated attempts in 3 of 4 stock index contracts.
For more psyche observations as to the mental landscape we all face when trading, consider the book True Self, available online, with links from the ValhallaFutures.com website.