20131219
Long 1 TF 1129.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1128.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3489.25, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.9, 1125.5, -0.7, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1125.0, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1124.3, 1124.6, +1.0, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.2, 1125.0, +0.5, +0.5, +2.3
Long 2 TF 1125.8, 1125.4, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +8.5
Sometimes chop can actually work in your favor, as the small breaks put food right into your hand. Today, the only visible persistence was the plethora of trade entry setups and the need to keep up with them. Kept to the rules of Pre-News positioning today as the Philly Fed 10:00am release counted down to the last minute while I held an NQ position with no profit. Therefore, I took a quick exit for fractional loss, only to see a small pop upwards that would have provided a reward, but at the expense of violating that critical rule and risking an ugly stop-out if wrong: that of never holding a pre-news position if insufficient profit cushion has developed before the actual news release time. More opportunities are always just on the horizon, and there should be no 'missing' of missed trend action, except when ignoring a true Trade Entry Model that worked out well after all. Stick with your Trade Plan. Stay focused. Be rested. Trading is not a causal thing. It requires all you can bring to the task. And if well prepared, once the Opening Bell sounds, just stay calm and wait till all your preparation tells you the model is at hand, and then strike immediately. The 'thinking' part should be over when the bell sounds. Execute the plan. Reflection time is later.
Wed Dec 18 Trades & Journal
20131218
Long 2 NQ 3466.25, 3466.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1119.5, 1119.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3459.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1120.8, +0.7
PM trades:
Long 2 TF 1111.6, 1111.6, +0.5, +2.7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.8
Two days prior without journaling and already losing touch with the Trader. But today could not ignore the inner voice any longer because the Trader in me seemed to have lost his voice and was functioning on too much input from the Accountant and the Analyst, at least in the 1st Frame. For although my entries were solid, I was jumping out of TF shorts at the first sign of opposition and had no trade patience at all, thus leaving the lion's share of the profits on the table for the 2 best trade entry models of the morning. The PM went better, as the plan goes, as the pre-FOMC entry model called for longs on the retest of the LOD made some 20 minutes or so prior. Usually I keep a default target in place for that, but the way going back up was so riddled with resistance that I used some of that over-caution left over from the AM to take the profit at initial resistance. Like an FOMC played some months back, this proved way short of the eventual market gains, but it also prevented me from being whiplash'd out of the long by a sharp breakdown first. So the profit from that play was really just luck and caution, not good trading, and therefore cannot reward myself for the strategy or management. Two more trading days this week, and then will be off all of Christmas week. Stay focused.
Long 2 NQ 3466.25, 3466.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1119.5, 1119.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 3459.25, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1120.8, +0.7
PM trades:
Long 2 TF 1111.6, 1111.6, +0.5, +2.7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.8
Two days prior without journaling and already losing touch with the Trader. But today could not ignore the inner voice any longer because the Trader in me seemed to have lost his voice and was functioning on too much input from the Accountant and the Analyst, at least in the 1st Frame. For although my entries were solid, I was jumping out of TF shorts at the first sign of opposition and had no trade patience at all, thus leaving the lion's share of the profits on the table for the 2 best trade entry models of the morning. The PM went better, as the plan goes, as the pre-FOMC entry model called for longs on the retest of the LOD made some 20 minutes or so prior. Usually I keep a default target in place for that, but the way going back up was so riddled with resistance that I used some of that over-caution left over from the AM to take the profit at initial resistance. Like an FOMC played some months back, this proved way short of the eventual market gains, but it also prevented me from being whiplash'd out of the long by a sharp breakdown first. So the profit from that play was really just luck and caution, not good trading, and therefore cannot reward myself for the strategy or management. Two more trading days this week, and then will be off all of Christmas week. Stay focused.
Tues Dec 17 Trades
20131217
Long 4 TF 1111.5, 1111.0, 1110.7, 1110.8, -0.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3459.25, 3460.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1110.4, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3469.25, +3.0
Long 2 YM 15790, 15789, -5, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, +1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.2
Long 4 TF 1111.5, 1111.0, 1110.7, 1110.8, -0.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.2
Long 2 NQ 3459.25, 3460.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1110.4, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3469.25, +3.0
Long 2 YM 15790, 15789, -5, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, +1.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.2
Mon Dec 16 Trades
20131216
Short 1 NQ 3479.75, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3483.75, 3483.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1115.9, 1115.9, 1115.7, -0.2, +0.5, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3489.25, -1.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1115.5, 1115.4, +1.0, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1113.8, 1113,7, 1113.1, -0.0, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.5, 1112.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.3, 1112.2, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1112.0, +0.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3479.75, 3478.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.7
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +3.9
Short 1 NQ 3479.75, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3483.75, 3483.5, +2.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1115.9, 1115.9, 1115.7, -0.2, +0.5, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3489.25, -1.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1115.5, 1115.4, +1.0, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1113.8, 1113,7, 1113.1, -0.0, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.5, 1112.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.3, 1112.2, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1111.7, 1112.0, +0.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3479.75, 3478.75, -2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1112.1, -0.7
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +3.9
Fri Dec 13 Trades & Journal
20131213
Long 1 NQ 3458.25, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3455.25, 3455.0, +4.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1102.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1099.0, 1099.2, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15661, 15661, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1100.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.5
Total YM +27
Total TF +3.3
Sometimes the contract of choice for us, the mini Russell TF, reverses before actually reaching the next support or resistance or exhaustion number it is approaching on the Pivot / Exhaustion Grid. As a trader, you have choices. You can chase a fill as the market sometimes quickly vacates the buy zone without the preferred price, and accept a price higher up with greater stop-loss risk, and reduced target opportunities; you can skip the trade altogether; or--and this is what I did with the initial long trade opportunity today, you can grab a different contract that might also be offering the same signal but was slower to respond to the turn. Such was the case with the initial NQ long. And I had to chase this a bit further than wanted even to catch it. Such is trading. It's an imperfect world with imperfect methods and a seriously flawed operator who requires his full focus and discipline sometimes just to stay in the game. Stay disciplined. Stick to your Trade Plan. It won't catch every opportunity, and even those it calls correctly will occasionally pass you by on operator error. Wishing all a great weekend.....
Long 1 NQ 3458.25, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 3455.25, 3455.0, +4.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1102.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1099.0, 1099.2, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15661, 15661, +7, +20
Short 1 TF 1100.8, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1100.5, +1.2
Total NQ +10.5
Total YM +27
Total TF +3.3
Sometimes the contract of choice for us, the mini Russell TF, reverses before actually reaching the next support or resistance or exhaustion number it is approaching on the Pivot / Exhaustion Grid. As a trader, you have choices. You can chase a fill as the market sometimes quickly vacates the buy zone without the preferred price, and accept a price higher up with greater stop-loss risk, and reduced target opportunities; you can skip the trade altogether; or--and this is what I did with the initial long trade opportunity today, you can grab a different contract that might also be offering the same signal but was slower to respond to the turn. Such was the case with the initial NQ long. And I had to chase this a bit further than wanted even to catch it. Such is trading. It's an imperfect world with imperfect methods and a seriously flawed operator who requires his full focus and discipline sometimes just to stay in the game. Stay disciplined. Stick to your Trade Plan. It won't catch every opportunity, and even those it calls correctly will occasionally pass you by on operator error. Wishing all a great weekend.....
Thurs Dec 12 Trades & Journal
20131212
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1102.1, 1101.9, -0.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1101.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1199.5, 1199.7, +1.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15769, 15766, +7, +20
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1101.5, +0.7, -0.2
Long 2 YM 15757, 15753, -0, -7
Long 2 TF 1199.6, 1199.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1199.0, 1199.0, +1.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1102.2, +1.1
Total YM +20
Total TF +6.5
Missed the same initial in-trend breakdown trade today as I did yesterday, and today it became apparent to me why. I was so exclusively focused on the TF contract in the early going,that I missed the YM setup altogether. Later I missed a decent breakout trade in the TF that was also 'in-plan', and one that several students caught. What causes the balking at inflection breakout levels is the sense of action I pick up regarding price proximity to the critical level. If it looks choppy, I duck the breakout trade. But observation teaches that the right inflection levels seem to overcome the action that was choppy just minutes before, and can produce a clean, impulsive breakout altogether different in action than that just preceding it. Have a plan, stick with the plan. Don't worry about what it might do. The Trade Entry Model is either right or it's not. No shoulda-coulda allowed. If the breakout trade is failing enough to really warrant trepidation, then it has no business in being in the plan anyway.
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1102.1, 1101.9, -0.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1101.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1199.5, 1199.7, +1.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15769, 15766, +7, +20
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1101.5, +0.7, -0.2
Long 2 YM 15757, 15753, -0, -7
Long 2 TF 1199.6, 1199.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1199.0, 1199.0, +1.1, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1102.2, +1.1
Total YM +20
Total TF +6.5
Missed the same initial in-trend breakdown trade today as I did yesterday, and today it became apparent to me why. I was so exclusively focused on the TF contract in the early going,that I missed the YM setup altogether. Later I missed a decent breakout trade in the TF that was also 'in-plan', and one that several students caught. What causes the balking at inflection breakout levels is the sense of action I pick up regarding price proximity to the critical level. If it looks choppy, I duck the breakout trade. But observation teaches that the right inflection levels seem to overcome the action that was choppy just minutes before, and can produce a clean, impulsive breakout altogether different in action than that just preceding it. Have a plan, stick with the plan. Don't worry about what it might do. The Trade Entry Model is either right or it's not. No shoulda-coulda allowed. If the breakout trade is failing enough to really warrant trepidation, then it has no business in being in the plan anyway.
Wed Dec 11 Trades & Journal
20131211
Long 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.4, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15913, 15913, 15914, +20, +20, +7
Long 1 NQ 3597.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3502.75, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1108.5, 1109.0, -0.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1109.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1107.7, 1107.6, +1.2, +0.4
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1105.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15908, +20
Total YM +67
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.8
Missed an important inflection breakdown trade today that would have allowed participation in the initial slap down decline. And as a consequence, was left counter trend trading until a signal for the 2nd leg breakdown came, in which I participated modestly. On potential Persistent Trend Days, often the day's quota comes from a single opportunity, and thereafter opportunities can get much harder to find. But all-in-all, the Trade Plan did at least keep me in the game for a decent day's profits. Will spend some time studying those early breakdown opps in the charts for awhile. Some trade entries require a bit of mental rehearsal.
Addendum:
Persistent Trend Day often offers what we call a Last Chance Texaco in-trend entry. This one seems to have come to the anticipated resistance areas, and did offer a decent profit for both a YM and TF initial position. But even after making the call to re -enter the 1-lot after an initial profit target was reached, I balked waiting for a few more ticks and missed the trade entry. That was the reason for grabbing the slower-to-react YM. A profitable day was important as yesterday's profits were only get-even with Monday's losses. And so, I tend to get careful, more interested in the consistency of day-to-day profits than taking the risks to make it a bigger hitter. Still, missing such a good trade entry with a 5 pt swing always disappoints. Stay focused.
Long 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.4, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 15913, 15913, 15914, +20, +20, +7
Long 1 NQ 3597.25, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3502.75, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1108.5, 1109.0, -0.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1109.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1107.7, 1107.6, +1.2, +0.4
PM Trades:
Short 1 TF 1105.8, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15908, +20
Total YM +67
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.8
Missed an important inflection breakdown trade today that would have allowed participation in the initial slap down decline. And as a consequence, was left counter trend trading until a signal for the 2nd leg breakdown came, in which I participated modestly. On potential Persistent Trend Days, often the day's quota comes from a single opportunity, and thereafter opportunities can get much harder to find. But all-in-all, the Trade Plan did at least keep me in the game for a decent day's profits. Will spend some time studying those early breakdown opps in the charts for awhile. Some trade entries require a bit of mental rehearsal.
Addendum:
Persistent Trend Day often offers what we call a Last Chance Texaco in-trend entry. This one seems to have come to the anticipated resistance areas, and did offer a decent profit for both a YM and TF initial position. But even after making the call to re -enter the 1-lot after an initial profit target was reached, I balked waiting for a few more ticks and missed the trade entry. That was the reason for grabbing the slower-to-react YM. A profitable day was important as yesterday's profits were only get-even with Monday's losses. And so, I tend to get careful, more interested in the consistency of day-to-day profits than taking the risks to make it a bigger hitter. Still, missing such a good trade entry with a 5 pt swing always disappoints. Stay focused.
Tues Dec 10 Trades & Journal
20131210
Long 1 TF 1128.1. -0.2
Long 1 TF 1127.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1127.1, 1127.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3512.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3510.0, 3509.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3515.75, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15995, +10
Long 1 TF 1128.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1120.4, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.2
Some very thin and erratic action in the early going, with buy signals flipping back to sell without production really in either direction. When conditions thin, and action so choppy there's no shame in staying small. Shift to the YM or ES or NQ contract where risk is lower and often the volatility too. Yesterday was another Rogue Wave pattern, and like the one of Wednesday the week prior, was a losing day. Important to follow a losing day with a winner, so reduce risks and get back in sync. Forget about getting your lost money back from the prior day. Just get back in sync and post a day's profits. Consistency is key. Your losses will be overcome with consistency, not desperation. Keep focused. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 TF 1128.1. -0.2
Long 1 TF 1127.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1127.1, 1127.0, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3512.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3510.0, 3509.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3515.75, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15995, +10
Long 1 TF 1128.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1120.4, +0.6
Total YM +10
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.2
Some very thin and erratic action in the early going, with buy signals flipping back to sell without production really in either direction. When conditions thin, and action so choppy there's no shame in staying small. Shift to the YM or ES or NQ contract where risk is lower and often the volatility too. Yesterday was another Rogue Wave pattern, and like the one of Wednesday the week prior, was a losing day. Important to follow a losing day with a winner, so reduce risks and get back in sync. Forget about getting your lost money back from the prior day. Just get back in sync and post a day's profits. Consistency is key. Your losses will be overcome with consistency, not desperation. Keep focused. Stay disciplined.
Mon Dec 9 Trades & Summary
20131209
Long 1 TF 1131.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1131.6, 1131.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.2, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.2, -0.1, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.7, 1127.2, 1126.8, -1.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1127.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, 1125.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.9, 1125.8, +1.1, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 YM 16024, +15
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total TF -2.3
TF lonely collapse blew through several buy signals and support levels before reaching deep oversold at 5th final support level. And there, failed to hold onto the potential runner as a pullback threatened some much needed catch-up profit. Did have a bull breakout signal to re enter that long but was a bit shaken up after bailing out at Mach 5 a couple of times on the way down. Another Rogue Wave formation for TF there, and all contained within the 1st frame, unlike last Wednesday, where the pattern occupied nearly the whole day, and even more dramatically. Use your stp's and manage your losses. The market is always bigger than you, and cannot be predicted or explained. Accept the outcome and stick with your Trade Plan. Good days have occurred far more than those more difficult to trade like today. Chin up, and back at it manana.
Long 1 TF 1131.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1131.6, 1131.3, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.2, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.2, -0.1, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.7, 1127.2, 1126.8, -1.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1127.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, 1125.7, -0.8, -0.8, -0.9
Long 3 TF 1125.1, 1125.9, 1125.8, +1.1, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 YM 16024, +15
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.0
Total YM +15
Total TF -2.3
TF lonely collapse blew through several buy signals and support levels before reaching deep oversold at 5th final support level. And there, failed to hold onto the potential runner as a pullback threatened some much needed catch-up profit. Did have a bull breakout signal to re enter that long but was a bit shaken up after bailing out at Mach 5 a couple of times on the way down. Another Rogue Wave formation for TF there, and all contained within the 1st frame, unlike last Wednesday, where the pattern occupied nearly the whole day, and even more dramatically. Use your stp's and manage your losses. The market is always bigger than you, and cannot be predicted or explained. Accept the outcome and stick with your Trade Plan. Good days have occurred far more than those more difficult to trade like today. Chin up, and back at it manana.
Fri Dec 6 Trades & Journal
20131206
Long 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1130.2, +0.5, +4.0
Total TF +4.7
The Pre-News Trade Entry Model is stock-in-trade for our Trade Plan. Today, just enough premium was created in the final moments leading up to the 9:55am ET pre-lim Consumer Confidence number to hold onto the 2nd unit for the outcome. In the plan, we keep a default target of +4.0 as the exit for our OCO orders. When playing the pre-FOMC report at 2:15pm, that target should be changed to +10. The action was pretty shakey leading into the report, but just holding still payed off for the exit spike. Trade the Plan. This particular model is also presented on Webinar #1 on the website. ...and a good weekend to all...
Long 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.4, -0.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.0, 1130.2, +0.5, +4.0
Total TF +4.7
The Pre-News Trade Entry Model is stock-in-trade for our Trade Plan. Today, just enough premium was created in the final moments leading up to the 9:55am ET pre-lim Consumer Confidence number to hold onto the 2nd unit for the outcome. In the plan, we keep a default target of +4.0 as the exit for our OCO orders. When playing the pre-FOMC report at 2:15pm, that target should be changed to +10. The action was pretty shakey leading into the report, but just holding still payed off for the exit spike. Trade the Plan. This particular model is also presented on Webinar #1 on the website. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Dec 5 Trades & Journal
20131205
Long 2 NQ 3477.0, 3477.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1123.2, 1123.5, -0.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15863, 15861, -7, -5
Long 2 TF 1121.5, 1121.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1120.5, 1120.5, 1120.3, +1.8, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1118.9, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -12
Total TF +2.2
Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a profit. As yesterday was good to breakouts, today was good to fades, and poor to breakout players. The simple understanding that since yesterday's range was bookend-reversals, today's was likely to be contained and range bound within, kept me from committing the error of trying to play breakouts today in order to revenge myself for not taking them yesterday. But the small swings today were a bit erratic, nonetheless. The good thing I can say about today was that i was able to step back into trades that continued to fit the entry model, even after they exceeded my risks and was stopped out. Fewer trades taken too, than yesterday. Stay with the Trade Plan.
Long 2 NQ 3477.0, 3477.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1123.2, 1123.5, -0.8, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15863, 15861, -7, -5
Long 2 TF 1121.5, 1121.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1120.5, 1120.5, 1120.3, +1.8, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1118.9, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total YM -12
Total TF +2.2
Well, it wasn't pretty, but it was a profit. As yesterday was good to breakouts, today was good to fades, and poor to breakout players. The simple understanding that since yesterday's range was bookend-reversals, today's was likely to be contained and range bound within, kept me from committing the error of trying to play breakouts today in order to revenge myself for not taking them yesterday. But the small swings today were a bit erratic, nonetheless. The good thing I can say about today was that i was able to step back into trades that continued to fit the entry model, even after they exceeded my risks and was stopped out. Fewer trades taken too, than yesterday. Stay with the Trade Plan.
Wed Dec 4 Trades & Journal
20131204
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1120.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 15887, 15887, -5, -5
Short 2 YM 15893, 15893, -5, -5
Short 3 TF 1125.0, 1125.5, 1126.0, -0.2, -1.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3490.25, -2.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.7, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1128.7, 1128.9, -0.5, -0.2
Midday Frame Trades:
Long 2 TF 1124.0, 1123.5, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, 1122.2, -0.4, -0.4, +1.0
Long 3 YM 15866, 15866, 15866, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1120.7, 1120.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 15862, 15862, 15862, +15, +15, +20
Long 2 TF 1119.9, 1120.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1119.3, 1119.3, 1119.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.9, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -3.3
Far outside the normal volatility tolerance of most traders and trade strategies today, except for breakout players, who must be celebrating hard. The best fitting Trade Entry Model to today's action in our Plan was the Pre-News buy signals just prior to the Housing Numbers. Several students apparently got fills but I missed in both the YM and TF where the signals occurred....and then a huge vertical move straight up without me. The profits missed always smart more than the losses accrued, even those shorts at the very highs that I was continually stop'd out of.....right before the big total give-back collapse. Guess you'd say it just wasn't my day. The hesitation I made just a before Pre-10am News was clearly a mental error, but with 2 pts already in hand at that time, is one I'm familiar with, as I tend to get protective about early profits....usually to my detriment. After that, my I suffered non-buyer's regret at all the great profits that woulda-coulda been had I been filled at the lows Pre-News, and suffered from trying to 'get even' with the market by shorting it too quickly. Then too, I ignored the in-plan breakout plays that would have netted good participation in the last part of both the rally to the highs and the sell-off to the lows. So still being affected in my trading by my mental blocks against taking breakouts. Somedays' are just perfect for range expansion and Serial Sequent Inflection breakout trades. Others, not so much. The skill in recognizing the day for what it is early on, and approaching the action with a clear head without trend prejudice, non-participation remorse, or the desire to prove you can out smart the trend by stepping in front of it early are integral to the best mental game a trader can have. When the day presents itself, believe in it, and go with what's offered. A breakout trade taken, but failed is no shameful act as long as the model is in your plan. ...it just makes you feel stupid quickly if you buy a false breakout or sell a false breakdown and are immediately stp'd out. Live with it. Be the Trader. The Trader doesn't care. He is judged by his adherence to the Trade Plan, not his genius insights or tape reading skills. Those belong to the Analyst, and he is not allowed to trade your account in real-time. Challenge him to refine all breakout triggers and model criteria. Then follow the plan. Money management and loss limitations will take you out before you're ruined the week in any single day's trade action. And if in the plan, valid breakout models will keep you in the game and part of the day's true character.
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1120.0, +1.0
Short 2 YM 15887, 15887, -5, -5
Short 2 YM 15893, 15893, -5, -5
Short 3 TF 1125.0, 1125.5, 1126.0, -0.2, -1.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3489.5, 3490.25, -2.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.7, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1128.7, 1128.9, -0.5, -0.2
Midday Frame Trades:
Long 2 TF 1124.0, 1123.5, -1.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, 1122.2, -0.4, -0.4, +1.0
Long 3 YM 15866, 15866, 15866, -5, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1120.7, 1120.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 15862, 15862, 15862, +15, +15, +20
Long 2 TF 1119.9, 1120.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1119.3, 1119.3, 1119.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.9, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM +15
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -3.3
Far outside the normal volatility tolerance of most traders and trade strategies today, except for breakout players, who must be celebrating hard. The best fitting Trade Entry Model to today's action in our Plan was the Pre-News buy signals just prior to the Housing Numbers. Several students apparently got fills but I missed in both the YM and TF where the signals occurred....and then a huge vertical move straight up without me. The profits missed always smart more than the losses accrued, even those shorts at the very highs that I was continually stop'd out of.....right before the big total give-back collapse. Guess you'd say it just wasn't my day. The hesitation I made just a before Pre-10am News was clearly a mental error, but with 2 pts already in hand at that time, is one I'm familiar with, as I tend to get protective about early profits....usually to my detriment. After that, my I suffered non-buyer's regret at all the great profits that woulda-coulda been had I been filled at the lows Pre-News, and suffered from trying to 'get even' with the market by shorting it too quickly. Then too, I ignored the in-plan breakout plays that would have netted good participation in the last part of both the rally to the highs and the sell-off to the lows. So still being affected in my trading by my mental blocks against taking breakouts. Somedays' are just perfect for range expansion and Serial Sequent Inflection breakout trades. Others, not so much. The skill in recognizing the day for what it is early on, and approaching the action with a clear head without trend prejudice, non-participation remorse, or the desire to prove you can out smart the trend by stepping in front of it early are integral to the best mental game a trader can have. When the day presents itself, believe in it, and go with what's offered. A breakout trade taken, but failed is no shameful act as long as the model is in your plan. ...it just makes you feel stupid quickly if you buy a false breakout or sell a false breakdown and are immediately stp'd out. Live with it. Be the Trader. The Trader doesn't care. He is judged by his adherence to the Trade Plan, not his genius insights or tape reading skills. Those belong to the Analyst, and he is not allowed to trade your account in real-time. Challenge him to refine all breakout triggers and model criteria. Then follow the plan. Money management and loss limitations will take you out before you're ruined the week in any single day's trade action. And if in the plan, valid breakout models will keep you in the game and part of the day's true character.
Tues Dec 3 Trades & Journal
20131203
Long 1 TF 1128.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1126.8, 1126.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1126.3, 1125.4, 1125.3, -1.4, +2.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +6.3
The first trend direction of the day is usually rejected. That's why the Test-n-Reject occurs far more often than does the Persistent Trend. But anticipating a reversal can cause you to slip into tape reading to justify an entry that is not quite ripe for a Trade Plan Entry Model. And so it was today for me, as I let my discipline slip with an early long entry. It was close enough to recover with follow-up entries, but nonetheless, it kept me from showing the profits I should have shown from the 1st and most important turn of the 1st Frame. Stay disciplined. Follow the Plan.
Long 1 TF 1128.1, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1126.8, 1126.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 3 TF 1126.3, 1125.4, 1125.3, -1.4, +2.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1131.2, 1131.2, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.5, +1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, +1.5, +0.5
Total TF +6.3
The first trend direction of the day is usually rejected. That's why the Test-n-Reject occurs far more often than does the Persistent Trend. But anticipating a reversal can cause you to slip into tape reading to justify an entry that is not quite ripe for a Trade Plan Entry Model. And so it was today for me, as I let my discipline slip with an early long entry. It was close enough to recover with follow-up entries, but nonetheless, it kept me from showing the profits I should have shown from the 1st and most important turn of the 1st Frame. Stay disciplined. Follow the Plan.
Mon Dec 2 Trades & Journal
20131202
Long 1 NQ 3496.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1138.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1136.9, 1137.0, +1.4, +0.9
Long 1 ES 1182.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16061, +10
Long 2 TF 1135.7, 1035.9, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1135.4, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1135.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1137.7, 1037.5, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.6, +.6, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1135.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1134.8, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1134.4, -0.4
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +10
Total ES +2.0
Total TF-0.7
Not every day is great for trading, and when price is confined to range bound activity, is often hard to understand the range limits till they are well behind you. Several trades within the Plan did keep the P&L in balance, but the best trade in the TF I cut off too soon from loss of patience. Tomorrow is another day. Stay focused. Follow your plan. If your entry models work more often than they fail, eventually the market will come back to favor your entries.
Long 1 NQ 3496.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1138.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1136.9, 1137.0, +1.4, +0.9
Long 1 ES 1182.25, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16061, +10
Long 2 TF 1135.7, 1035.9, -0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1135.4, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1135.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1137.7, 1037.5, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.6, +.6, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1135.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1134.8, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1134.4, -0.4
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +10
Total ES +2.0
Total TF-0.7
Not every day is great for trading, and when price is confined to range bound activity, is often hard to understand the range limits till they are well behind you. Several trades within the Plan did keep the P&L in balance, but the best trade in the TF I cut off too soon from loss of patience. Tomorrow is another day. Stay focused. Follow your plan. If your entry models work more often than they fail, eventually the market will come back to favor your entries.
Tues Nov 26 Trades
20131126
Long 2 YM 15071, 15069, -7, +7
Long 1 TF 1125.1, +1.5
Long 1 YM 15069 +13
Short 1 TF 1125.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1125.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.2, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1128.3, 1028.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.1, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1131.1, 1131.2, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +13
Total TF +2.5
Long 2 YM 15071, 15069, -7, +7
Long 1 TF 1125.1, +1.5
Long 1 YM 15069 +13
Short 1 TF 1125.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1125.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1128.1, 1128.2, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1128.5, 1128.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1128.3, 1028.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1130.2, 1130.2, -0.1, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1131.1, 1131.2, +1.2, +0.7
Total YM +13
Total TF +2.5
Mon Nov 25 Trades & Journal
20131125
Long 2 YM 15038, 15038, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 1125.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1123.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.2, 1122.6, -0.0, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15061, -6
Short 2 TF 1124.1, 1124.0, -05, -0.6
Short 2 TF 11024.6, 1124.5, +1.0, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.6, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.2, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.3
Seems like pre-holiday type action has already set in for the week, with lots of chop and big divergences. Stuck to the plan pretty well, but found my entries too early several times. As the 1st frame came to an end, and I felt relieved as a means to excuse myself from trading this kind of action, I was amused to see far better signals suddenly show up as the Midday frame found its footing. Yang-Yin. Will trade again tomorrow, but thereafter no more trades this week. Stay focused....
Long 2 YM 15038, 15038, +10, +16
Short 1 TF 1125.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1123.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.2, 1122.6, -0.0, +1.2
Short 1 YM 15061, -6
Short 2 TF 1124.1, 1124.0, -05, -0.6
Short 2 TF 11024.6, 1124.5, +1.0, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.6, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.2, +0.5, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +4.3
Seems like pre-holiday type action has already set in for the week, with lots of chop and big divergences. Stuck to the plan pretty well, but found my entries too early several times. As the 1st frame came to an end, and I felt relieved as a means to excuse myself from trading this kind of action, I was amused to see far better signals suddenly show up as the Midday frame found its footing. Yang-Yin. Will trade again tomorrow, but thereafter no more trades this week. Stay focused....
Fri Nov 22 Trades & Journal
20131122
Long 2 NQ 3407.5, 3407.75, +3.50, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1119.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 15979, 15980, +12, +20
Long 1 TF 1116.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +0.6
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +32
Total TF +1.9
Unlike yesterday, today's ORB coil came with no pre Philly Fed complication, so I have even less excuse for not taking it as a breakout. Earlier the TF had been the heavier of all contracts, but at this bull breakout level, was suddenly all alone. All the more so should I have been ready to take the breakout, as it had all the right filters: a Pre-Breakout Pause, the 10:30am Trend Check base, and contract Leadership Shift. Put on your blinders. You can't outguess the market, nor out smart it. The trades have qualifying elements. Those elements either appear at the right edge of your video screen, or the do not. Intuition and fear are not allowed. Take the trades, take the consequences. If the trepidation you feel from taking the trade is caused by a legitimate technical aspect, then that aspect should be a filter to the trade every time. Otherwise, ignore it. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 3407.5, 3407.75, +3.50, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1119.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 15979, 15980, +12, +20
Long 1 TF 1116.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1121.2, +0.6
Total NQ +4.5
Total YM +32
Total TF +1.9
Unlike yesterday, today's ORB coil came with no pre Philly Fed complication, so I have even less excuse for not taking it as a breakout. Earlier the TF had been the heavier of all contracts, but at this bull breakout level, was suddenly all alone. All the more so should I have been ready to take the breakout, as it had all the right filters: a Pre-Breakout Pause, the 10:30am Trend Check base, and contract Leadership Shift. Put on your blinders. You can't outguess the market, nor out smart it. The trades have qualifying elements. Those elements either appear at the right edge of your video screen, or the do not. Intuition and fear are not allowed. Take the trades, take the consequences. If the trepidation you feel from taking the trade is caused by a legitimate technical aspect, then that aspect should be a filter to the trade every time. Otherwise, ignore it. Stay disciplined.
Thurs Nov 21 Trades & Journal
20131121
Short 1 TF 1105.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 3393.0, 3392.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1110.0, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15945, 15946, +7, +5
Short 1 TF 1111.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1112.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1112.6, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.0
Persistent Trend Day Up signals began with early action, but I failed to capitalize on the TF bull breakout as the Philly Fed approached. That trade was in my Trade Plan, and as I such I violated the plan by not taking it. Instead, I shorted the news with the NQ short, which was also in the plan, and oddly, could have accomplished both with profits. But what I feel best about today was a breakout in TF that I took at the first inflection level, a good deal after the 10:00am news was out. And although I only held the trade for a 1 pt profit, at least broke the ice a bit in my attempts to take breakouts when the filters are aligned. Keep practicing. Habits are difficult to break, and even more difficult to form.
Short 1 TF 1105.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 3393.0, 3392.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1110.0, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15945, 15946, +7, +5
Short 1 TF 1111.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1112.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1112.6, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total YM +12
Total TF +3.0
Persistent Trend Day Up signals began with early action, but I failed to capitalize on the TF bull breakout as the Philly Fed approached. That trade was in my Trade Plan, and as I such I violated the plan by not taking it. Instead, I shorted the news with the NQ short, which was also in the plan, and oddly, could have accomplished both with profits. But what I feel best about today was a breakout in TF that I took at the first inflection level, a good deal after the 10:00am news was out. And although I only held the trade for a 1 pt profit, at least broke the ice a bit in my attempts to take breakouts when the filters are aligned. Keep practicing. Habits are difficult to break, and even more difficult to form.
Wed Nov 20 Trades & Journal
20131120
Long 2 YM 15935 15934, +7, -7
Long 2 NQ 3385.5, 3385.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15928, +15
Long 2 TF 1100.3, 1099.8, -1.4., -0.7
Long 2 TF 1098.6, 1098.6, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3380.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1104.3, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15981, 15979, +11, +7
Long 1 NQ 3389.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 3384.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.0, 3382.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.50, 3382.50, +3.0, +3.0
PM trades
Long 1 YM 15928, +20
Total YM +53
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +0.4
It was important for the day's profits to have stepped back in at more than one buy signal when the volatility blew out my stp's. That's because the buy signals were still there, but at deeper excursion depths in both the initial TF longs and the subsequent NQ longs after those stp-outs. I seldom have trouble doing this, but is worth reminding me to stay with the signal even though the volatility can extend the waves. The biggest miss of the day came with an inflection buy out, and as usual, I balked and was left standing flat as the TF exploded towards earlier identified bull targets. Study the inflections. Note the momentum. Register whether the infection comes as a 1st or 2nd trend direction, and take the trade if these filters are in place. With the right filters, a breakout can be even more rewarding than a pullback opportunity. Review more charts over the weekend, and make further settlements on breakout filters for the Trade Plan. Then, follow the Plan.
Addendum:
FOMC minutes always a draw for those seeking volatility. Saw no pre-news setups as the clock count down arrived inbetwixt a trading range for the day. But the bearish reaction to the news did beget several buy signals, one of which I was bold enough to take in the YM, but no other. I was looking for a decent TF signal, as did not fare much better than b/e there this morning in the 1st Frame. A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine. But the only clear TF trade in the PM was a breakdown trade, which in retrospect, would have required a full sized stp-loss in order to survive the whiplash after the trigger entry level. But no shame in trading the NQ and/or the YM. Go where the signals appear. Follow the Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 YM 15935 15934, +7, -7
Long 2 NQ 3385.5, 3385.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 15928, +15
Long 2 TF 1100.3, 1099.8, -1.4., -0.7
Long 2 TF 1098.6, 1098.6, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3380.75, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1104.3, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15981, 15979, +11, +7
Long 1 NQ 3389.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 3384.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.0, 3382.0, +3.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3382.50, 3382.50, +3.0, +3.0
PM trades
Long 1 YM 15928, +20
Total YM +53
Total NQ +16.0
Total TF +0.4
It was important for the day's profits to have stepped back in at more than one buy signal when the volatility blew out my stp's. That's because the buy signals were still there, but at deeper excursion depths in both the initial TF longs and the subsequent NQ longs after those stp-outs. I seldom have trouble doing this, but is worth reminding me to stay with the signal even though the volatility can extend the waves. The biggest miss of the day came with an inflection buy out, and as usual, I balked and was left standing flat as the TF exploded towards earlier identified bull targets. Study the inflections. Note the momentum. Register whether the infection comes as a 1st or 2nd trend direction, and take the trade if these filters are in place. With the right filters, a breakout can be even more rewarding than a pullback opportunity. Review more charts over the weekend, and make further settlements on breakout filters for the Trade Plan. Then, follow the Plan.
Addendum:
FOMC minutes always a draw for those seeking volatility. Saw no pre-news setups as the clock count down arrived inbetwixt a trading range for the day. But the bearish reaction to the news did beget several buy signals, one of which I was bold enough to take in the YM, but no other. I was looking for a decent TF signal, as did not fare much better than b/e there this morning in the 1st Frame. A frame without TF profits is like a day without sunshine. But the only clear TF trade in the PM was a breakdown trade, which in retrospect, would have required a full sized stp-loss in order to survive the whiplash after the trigger entry level. But no shame in trading the NQ and/or the YM. Go where the signals appear. Follow the Trade Plan. Stay disciplined.
Tues Nov 19 Trades & Journal
20131119
Long 2 TF 1107.7, 1101.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1107.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3395.0, 3395.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 TF 1110.1, 1110.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3399.25, 3395.25, +3.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3395.25, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1108.0, +2.2
Long 2 NQ 3391.25, 3391.5, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1097.7, 1097.1, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1096.7, +0.9
Total NQ +7.75
Total TF +8.0
Showed the right patience for the initial long as price did eventually break below the Globex low and as per usual, hooked the breakdown shorts for a nice reversal. However, I lost patience with it initially and was too easily misled by how it lagged the YM and NQ on their more immediate strength. The TF can lag too, and a bit more patience at this turn would have caught a better piece of the initial 8 pt reversal excursion. The additional bull breakouts at the top by the TF were all faux, but cannot point to the actual filter that kept me out of them, although can claim that the YM and ES contracts did the initial leadership. I still take few breakouts, and on some days come away quite relieved that I'm so picky with them, but on others, resolve to continue refining the filters that can lead to more exacting breakout trade entry rules. Keep studying this subject. Eventually the haze will clear. Stay disciplined with the plan aspects are already well defined.
Addendum
The market teaches us market truth each day, if we will only see it, and thereby, see through its various disguises that otherwise keep the majority of traders from better success. Am reminded of the famous Heraclitus remark "Nature loves to hide." All you have to do is study the Time Markers yesterday and today and you'll discover one of its most important secrets, and a critical ingredient to any Technical Entry Model. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 TF 1107.7, 1101.4, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1107.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3395.0, 3395.25, -2.0, -2.25
Short 2 TF 1110.1, 1110.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3399.25, 3395.25, +3.0, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3395.25, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1108.0, +2.2
Long 2 NQ 3391.25, 3391.5, +2.0, +5.0
PM Trades
Long 2 TF 1097.7, 1097.1, -0.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1096.7, +0.9
Total NQ +7.75
Total TF +8.0
Showed the right patience for the initial long as price did eventually break below the Globex low and as per usual, hooked the breakdown shorts for a nice reversal. However, I lost patience with it initially and was too easily misled by how it lagged the YM and NQ on their more immediate strength. The TF can lag too, and a bit more patience at this turn would have caught a better piece of the initial 8 pt reversal excursion. The additional bull breakouts at the top by the TF were all faux, but cannot point to the actual filter that kept me out of them, although can claim that the YM and ES contracts did the initial leadership. I still take few breakouts, and on some days come away quite relieved that I'm so picky with them, but on others, resolve to continue refining the filters that can lead to more exacting breakout trade entry rules. Keep studying this subject. Eventually the haze will clear. Stay disciplined with the plan aspects are already well defined.
Addendum
The market teaches us market truth each day, if we will only see it, and thereby, see through its various disguises that otherwise keep the majority of traders from better success. Am reminded of the famous Heraclitus remark "Nature loves to hide." All you have to do is study the Time Markers yesterday and today and you'll discover one of its most important secrets, and a critical ingredient to any Technical Entry Model. Stay disciplined.
Mon Nov 18 Trades & Journal
20131118
Long 1 TF 1118.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1117.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1114.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1112.2, 1112.1, -0.5, +.7
Long 2 TF 1111.8, 1111.2, -0.0, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15974, 15978, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1115.1, 1116.0, -0.2, +1.4
Short 2 YM 15976, 15976, +5, -5
Short 2 TF 1116.6, 1116.6, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3419.0, 3419.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1118.4, 1118.4, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1119.1, 1119.2, +1.9, +0.7
Total YM 17
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.7
Did not quite have that 'calm in the storm' attitude today that is so needed for the best trade entries. As a result
hurried too many and got in early in the right places, exited a bit early in the wrong places.... but did ok over all. I did duck on breakout in my trade plan. Just couldn't get my fingers to place the order. I must believe better in the trade plan on breakouts, and take my chances on entry models that have the right ingredients.
Long 1 TF 1118.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1117.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1114.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1112.2, 1112.1, -0.5, +.7
Long 2 TF 1111.8, 1111.2, -0.0, +1.3
Short 2 YM 15974, 15978, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1115.1, 1116.0, -0.2, +1.4
Short 2 YM 15976, 15976, +5, -5
Short 2 TF 1116.6, 1116.6, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 3419.0, 3419.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1118.4, 1118.4, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1119.1, 1119.2, +1.9, +0.7
Total YM 17
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.7
Did not quite have that 'calm in the storm' attitude today that is so needed for the best trade entries. As a result
hurried too many and got in early in the right places, exited a bit early in the wrong places.... but did ok over all. I did duck on breakout in my trade plan. Just couldn't get my fingers to place the order. I must believe better in the trade plan on breakouts, and take my chances on entry models that have the right ingredients.
Fri Nov 15 Trades & Journal
20131115
Long 1 TF 1107.8, +1.0
Total TF +1.0
Don't even bother trying to trade when you're not well. A head cold is minor thing for some occupations, but anything that requires sharp concentration, like operating heavy machinery, is best left till your head is clear. Have a good weekend.
Long 1 TF 1107.8, +1.0
Total TF +1.0
Don't even bother trying to trade when you're not well. A head cold is minor thing for some occupations, but anything that requires sharp concentration, like operating heavy machinery, is best left till your head is clear. Have a good weekend.
Thurs Nov 14 Trades & Journal
20131114
Long 1 TF 1109.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1106.7, 1106.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1106.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1105.2, 1105.3, -0.0, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1104.8, 1104.8, 1104.9, +1.4, +1.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1103.3, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1104.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1103.1, 1102.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.6, +2.0
Total TF +8.4
Remarkable divergence, and have to admit that it affected me to overconfidence and early entries on the way down. I even took several trades that were outside the model for a Test-n-Reject 1st Frame following on the heals of a Persistent Trend Day Up the day before. And although I used 1 lots and tight stp's for those out-of-model long entries, letting them into my head at that point was a little like letting in the air of intuition and tape reading. This is NOT what you want to do, and leads to being cocky, and eventually, if not checked, the catastrophic habit of assuming you know which way the market is supposed to go. You don't. And at those moments where you most feel right, the market is all the more likely to prove you otherwise. Whatever it is you think you see and is wiser than the current price action of the market itself is being seen by lots of other traders, all probably better at their craft than you. And that's precisely why you're all probably just going to be stopped out. The market is bigger than all that, and the more that see how much the market must be wrong in its own self assessment, the more subsequent liquidation and impulse is most likely about to follow as those thinking they're 'in-the-know' are forced to puke back their positions in humble acknowledgement that 'everybody' is always wrong. Stick with your plan. It doesn't matter if you miss a few trades. Most likely, a hurried entry will just be a stop-out, and will put you into a hole that you'll have to dig out of when the true and completed Trade Entry Models finally make their destined appearance anyway. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 TF 1109.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1108.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1106.7, 1106.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1106.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1105.2, 1105.3, -0.0, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1104.8, 1104.8, 1104.9, +1.4, +1.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1103.3, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1104.1, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1103.1, 1102.7, +3.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1104.6, +2.0
Total TF +8.4
Remarkable divergence, and have to admit that it affected me to overconfidence and early entries on the way down. I even took several trades that were outside the model for a Test-n-Reject 1st Frame following on the heals of a Persistent Trend Day Up the day before. And although I used 1 lots and tight stp's for those out-of-model long entries, letting them into my head at that point was a little like letting in the air of intuition and tape reading. This is NOT what you want to do, and leads to being cocky, and eventually, if not checked, the catastrophic habit of assuming you know which way the market is supposed to go. You don't. And at those moments where you most feel right, the market is all the more likely to prove you otherwise. Whatever it is you think you see and is wiser than the current price action of the market itself is being seen by lots of other traders, all probably better at their craft than you. And that's precisely why you're all probably just going to be stopped out. The market is bigger than all that, and the more that see how much the market must be wrong in its own self assessment, the more subsequent liquidation and impulse is most likely about to follow as those thinking they're 'in-the-know' are forced to puke back their positions in humble acknowledgement that 'everybody' is always wrong. Stick with your plan. It doesn't matter if you miss a few trades. Most likely, a hurried entry will just be a stop-out, and will put you into a hole that you'll have to dig out of when the true and completed Trade Entry Models finally make their destined appearance anyway. Stay disciplined.
Thurs Nov 13 Trades & Summary
20131113
Short 2 NQ 3350.25, 3350.75, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1097.1, 1097.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.0, +2.0, +4.25
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 3365.25, 3365.5, 3366.0, +2.0, -0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3361.75, 3361.25, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.0
When action gets difficult in your favorite trading vehicle, like the mini Russell contract, there is no shame to move your model entries to another, like the YM or NQ. Sometimes, the setups just aren't there, or they are, and price action is intolerant of your stps and entries. Whatever the reason, your capital is always more important than forcing a trade model into something that doesn't really correspond on the screen. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on what works and what doesn't. Your job is to respond to the market. It cannot be controlled. But you can control yourself. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 3350.25, 3350.75, -1.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1097.1, 1097.1, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.8, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.0, +2.0, +4.25
Short 2 NQ 3358.25, 3358.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 3365.25, 3365.5, 3366.0, +2.0, -0.5, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3361.75, 3361.25, +1.0, +1.5
Total NQ +14
Total TF +2.0
When action gets difficult in your favorite trading vehicle, like the mini Russell contract, there is no shame to move your model entries to another, like the YM or NQ. Sometimes, the setups just aren't there, or they are, and price action is intolerant of your stps and entries. Whatever the reason, your capital is always more important than forcing a trade model into something that doesn't really correspond on the screen. Accept the outcome. The market is its own authority on what works and what doesn't. Your job is to respond to the market. It cannot be controlled. But you can control yourself. Stay disciplined.
Wed Nov 12 Trades & Journal
20131112
Long 2 YM 15710, 15711, +7, +11
Short 2 TF 1098.5, 1098.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1096.8, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 3364.25, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +3.5
Pretty much stuck to plan today, and can't really fault any failures to take breakouts,
as price remained well contained in our favorite the TF for the 1st Frame action. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 YM 15710, 15711, +7, +11
Short 2 TF 1098.5, 1098.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1096.8, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 3364.25, +2.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total YM +18
Total TF +3.5
Pretty much stuck to plan today, and can't really fault any failures to take breakouts,
as price remained well contained in our favorite the TF for the 1st Frame action. Stay disciplined.
Mon Nov 11 Trades & Journal
20131111
Short 2 TF 1095.6, 1096.0, +3.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1096.3, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15724, 15728, -6, -3
Short 2 NQ 3362.25, 3362.24, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1099.9, 1099.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1097.4, 1097.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3355.75, 3355.50, -1.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1096.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.9, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1095.2, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1094.5, 1094.4, +1.0, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1094.4, +1.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +8.0
If you were just watching my initial trades within those early TF whipsaws, it might not look like there was any sense to it. But every trade was part of an Entry Model. In fact, I missed two of the best ones today, and still did well. Volatility is the key. The slow bull or bear grinds into Persistent Trends are murder. You need swings to make profits in index futures, otherwise, you may as well be trading wheat. Stay focused. When the entry model appears at the right edge of your video screen, no thinking allowed. Take the trade. Take the consequences. If the model does not work far more often than it fails, it has no business as part of your Trade Plan anyway.
Short 2 TF 1095.6, 1096.0, +3.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1096.3, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15724, 15728, -6, -3
Short 2 NQ 3362.25, 3362.24, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 TF 1099.9, 1099.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1097.4, 1097.3, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 NQ 3355.75, 3355.50, -1.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1096.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.9, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1095.2, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1094.5, 1094.4, +1.0, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1094.4, +1.0
Total YM -9
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +8.0
If you were just watching my initial trades within those early TF whipsaws, it might not look like there was any sense to it. But every trade was part of an Entry Model. In fact, I missed two of the best ones today, and still did well. Volatility is the key. The slow bull or bear grinds into Persistent Trends are murder. You need swings to make profits in index futures, otherwise, you may as well be trading wheat. Stay focused. When the entry model appears at the right edge of your video screen, no thinking allowed. Take the trade. Take the consequences. If the model does not work far more often than it fails, it has no business as part of your Trade Plan anyway.
Fri Nov 8 Trades & Jounal
20131108
Short 2 TF 1081.9, 1082.9, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1086.5, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1083.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1086.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.9, 1088.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15629, 15630, +16, +7
Short 2 NQ 3349.5, 3349.5, -0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1090.9, +1.2
Total YM +23
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.4
Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day Down models were followed immediately by a Persistent Trend Day Up today. This has been just the same Day Model Sequence this bull has demonstrated so many times these many months, and should come as no surprise. Except that I was no more prepared to take the breakout signals in TF on the way up as I was yesterday on the way down. Pullback buy opps in the TF did present themselves, however, and I was quick to respond to those when they appeared. But the best one shortly after the opening went unfilled, and was left on the sidelines for the big initial explosion. Consider the elements to that initial pullback buy opp. They have been seen so many times before. The TF alerted the market to the whole subsequent explosion in those earliest minutes. Write down its elements. Rehearse their reappearance. Be ready for the trade. You must be ready to strike quickly when the model appears, and consider that if the trend has force and is truly explosive, it will fall short of pullback depth expectations, and offer considerable surprise and extension to the inflection breakouts. Be brave at the inflections that fit the trade model filter restrictions. Avoid all others. ...and a good weekend to all.
Short 2 TF 1081.9, 1082.9, -1.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1086.5, +1.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1083.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1086.8, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1087.9, 1088.2, -0.5, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15629, 15630, +16, +7
Short 2 NQ 3349.5, 3349.5, -0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1090.9, +1.2
Total YM +23
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.4
Yesterday's Persistent Trend Day Down models were followed immediately by a Persistent Trend Day Up today. This has been just the same Day Model Sequence this bull has demonstrated so many times these many months, and should come as no surprise. Except that I was no more prepared to take the breakout signals in TF on the way up as I was yesterday on the way down. Pullback buy opps in the TF did present themselves, however, and I was quick to respond to those when they appeared. But the best one shortly after the opening went unfilled, and was left on the sidelines for the big initial explosion. Consider the elements to that initial pullback buy opp. They have been seen so many times before. The TF alerted the market to the whole subsequent explosion in those earliest minutes. Write down its elements. Rehearse their reappearance. Be ready for the trade. You must be ready to strike quickly when the model appears, and consider that if the trend has force and is truly explosive, it will fall short of pullback depth expectations, and offer considerable surprise and extension to the inflection breakouts. Be brave at the inflections that fit the trade model filter restrictions. Avoid all others. ...and a good weekend to all.
Thur Nov 7 Trades & Journal
20131107
Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1102.4, 1102.5, 1102.5, +0.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15747, 15747, +7, +14
Long 2 NQ 3368.25, 3368.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3368.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.7, -1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1094.6, 1094.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1091.8, 1091.8, 1091.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1091.0, 1091.0, 1091.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1088.3, 1088.8, +2.0, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3340.25, 3340.75, +5.25, +2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1087.1, 1087.5, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15671, 15672, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1089.9, 1090.2, 1090.2, -1.0, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1090.7, 1090.7, +1.5, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1080.9, 1081.9, -0.9, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 3323.75, 3324.75, +5.0, +1.75
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1079.0, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +9
Total NQ +17.50
Total TF -0.3
Today, whipsaw volatility kept me treading water. But I took my eye off a critical breakdown level from the larger frame when I failed to find an adequate trigger to enter on shorts in the TF. Chose the NQ instead and got whipped out. Once out of sync, it is always mentally harder to get back in when taking immediate recovery trades. Stepping back from it all, even at the risk of missing the next entry signal, would have been the wiser move this morning. And the Midday Frame trades near the Noon hour fared no better, as the extra excursion there made me play catch-up to early entries and stp-outs too. But I love days like this. The opportunity the market offers is so tremendous. We have to be thankful for all that it brings us, and stay determined to be on our game whenever we approach it with trades. Stay disciplined. Stay calm.
PM Addendum
Moth to the flame, as I couldn't resist the volatility. Only fared moderately better with late PM trades, givijng up on them too soon as is typical when playing catch-up to a losing day. Did manage to crawl back into positive territory after a pretty dismal morning. Since I see each day as a goal of getting positive and staying positive, I don't apologize for taking profits too soon when seeking the return to health for the day. But nonetheless, the best trade in the afternoon I failed to take altogether when I finally got positive, and the earlier short, which required 3 attempts total, was exited so far before it was ripe as to be embarrassing. When the dust settles on this day, will take the time to review it in detail over the weekend, as the best source of self-improvement is always in one's own trades. Stay focused. Be objective in self criticisms. The market is always bigger than you, and you are forever a student of the market.
Short 3 TF 1101.9, 1102.4, 1102.5, 1102.5, +0.1, +0.5, -0.5, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15747, 15747, +7, +14
Long 2 NQ 3368.25, 3368.25, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 3368.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1096.1, 1095.7, -1.0, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1094.6, 1094.0, -1.0, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1091.8, 1091.8, 1091.6, -0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1091.0, 1091.0, 1091.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1088.3, 1088.8, +2.0, +1.5
Long 2 NQ 3340.25, 3340.75, +5.25, +2.0
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1087.1, 1087.5, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 15671, 15672, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1089.9, 1090.2, 1090.2, -1.0, -0.6, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1090.7, 1090.7, +1.5, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1080.9, 1081.9, -0.9, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 3323.75, 3324.75, +5.0, +1.75
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1079.0, +0.7, +1.4
Total YM +9
Total NQ +17.50
Total TF -0.3
Today, whipsaw volatility kept me treading water. But I took my eye off a critical breakdown level from the larger frame when I failed to find an adequate trigger to enter on shorts in the TF. Chose the NQ instead and got whipped out. Once out of sync, it is always mentally harder to get back in when taking immediate recovery trades. Stepping back from it all, even at the risk of missing the next entry signal, would have been the wiser move this morning. And the Midday Frame trades near the Noon hour fared no better, as the extra excursion there made me play catch-up to early entries and stp-outs too. But I love days like this. The opportunity the market offers is so tremendous. We have to be thankful for all that it brings us, and stay determined to be on our game whenever we approach it with trades. Stay disciplined. Stay calm.
PM Addendum
Moth to the flame, as I couldn't resist the volatility. Only fared moderately better with late PM trades, givijng up on them too soon as is typical when playing catch-up to a losing day. Did manage to crawl back into positive territory after a pretty dismal morning. Since I see each day as a goal of getting positive and staying positive, I don't apologize for taking profits too soon when seeking the return to health for the day. But nonetheless, the best trade in the afternoon I failed to take altogether when I finally got positive, and the earlier short, which required 3 attempts total, was exited so far before it was ripe as to be embarrassing. When the dust settles on this day, will take the time to review it in detail over the weekend, as the best source of self-improvement is always in one's own trades. Stay focused. Be objective in self criticisms. The market is always bigger than you, and you are forever a student of the market.
Wed Nov 6 Trades & Journal
20131106
Short 3 TF 1107.6, 1107.8, 1108.3, +1.3, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1101.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1099.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3377.0, 3370.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 1 TF 1095.0, +1.3
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes your Trade Plan will fail you. Although the TF sell signals came in near the highs, and I was able to enter cleanly, further breakdown levels were filtered out by the plan when the momentum indicator warned of over extension.... and yet, it broke right an inflection point for the cleanest breakdown of the morning, without me. I'll keep an eye on this in order to gauge what other considerations might be made for the momentum indicator, but generally as a tool, it has kept me out of far more trouble and into far more clearer turns than kept me out of deeper excursions. Also, the strong bull divergence today by the ES and YM, which I did recognize as a distraction to the TF bear leadership, nonetheless, hurried my exit on the first TF position on caution that the big caps might yet keep the TF at least retesting the HOD (High-of-Day). There's never any use in castigating oneself over 'should have known better's or 'if only I hadn't's. Your plan is always imperfect. And your plan can always be improved. Trust in your plan if it works far more often than it fails. But be mindful of insights that might improve it, if you've seen those technical aspects along the way... a few thousand times....
Short 3 TF 1107.6, 1107.8, 1108.3, +1.3, +0.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1101.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1099.5, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 3377.0, 3370.0, -0.0, -2.25
Long 1 TF 1095.0, +1.3
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes your Trade Plan will fail you. Although the TF sell signals came in near the highs, and I was able to enter cleanly, further breakdown levels were filtered out by the plan when the momentum indicator warned of over extension.... and yet, it broke right an inflection point for the cleanest breakdown of the morning, without me. I'll keep an eye on this in order to gauge what other considerations might be made for the momentum indicator, but generally as a tool, it has kept me out of far more trouble and into far more clearer turns than kept me out of deeper excursions. Also, the strong bull divergence today by the ES and YM, which I did recognize as a distraction to the TF bear leadership, nonetheless, hurried my exit on the first TF position on caution that the big caps might yet keep the TF at least retesting the HOD (High-of-Day). There's never any use in castigating oneself over 'should have known better's or 'if only I hadn't's. Your plan is always imperfect. And your plan can always be improved. Trust in your plan if it works far more often than it fails. But be mindful of insights that might improve it, if you've seen those technical aspects along the way... a few thousand times....
Tues Nov 5 Trades & Summary
20131105
Long 2 NQ 3368.0, 3368, +1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1098.4, 1098.5, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1098.0, 1097.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1097.1, 1096.6, 1096.4, -1.4, +0.7, -0.7,
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1095.9, 1095.9, 1096.0, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.01, 1094.01, +1.7, +4.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.1
Was determined again to take the breakouts, when they fulfilled the Trade Plan requirements and were not filtered out by caveats. Today, nearly missed a short on break on the way down because I failed to set up my platform for a stp-n-rev trigger. After it broke, it returned for a moment back up to the breakdown level, which means I only caught that short by luck, as many breakdowns do not have initial counter trend reactions, and instead, just run away. As it was, had I used the two-contract breakout strategy on stp-n-rev's I had intended, I would have exited one with +0.4 TF, and been stop-d out the second on the initial counter-break reaction at -0.4 TF, net nothing. As it was, since I entered on a pullback after the breakdown, I got a better fill than the breakdown itself, and was in with a pullback auto-strategy, which exited the first of two contracts at the better +0.7, and left the second open for some play. If this was the more normal occurrence to breakouts, it would beg the question as to whether breakouts are generally better taken not on the breakout itself with a stop-entry order, but on a pullback into the pre-breakdown pause pattern that spawned it. Breakouts are tricky, and again this throws me back into some research.
The best part of my trading today, however, was not the usual absence of my balking at a Trade Plan breakout play, but the persistence I showed when the final buy signal came in the TF near the Low of Day. With a support number at 1094.0, I called entry at 94.01 into a strong Serial Sequent structure buy signal. I remember some years ago when pulling such a trigger against all the usual beginner Do-Not-Do rules, such as, 'never buy a new low', would have kept me out of that trade. But with the True Trend Momentum Indicator actually turning up while the market was making that new low, and a significant exhaustion level being penetrated for the necessary finishing confluence, I was able to enter that order without much emotion at all, and could see to call off the initial targets for better profits than the auto-exits would have on the way up.
And finally, another good night's sleep, with about an hour earlier to bed than usual, lent a distinct background to the mental ease with which I seemed to approach trading today. That odd paradox of patience and persistence seemed to be right at my beckoning when needed. Get your needed rest. Stay focused. Follow your Trade Plan. If your plan is not working, go back to the simulator until it does, or until you've found a Trade Plan that actually works far more often than it fails. You're lost without it.
Long 2 NQ 3368.0, 3368, +1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1098.4, 1098.5, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1098.0, 1097.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1097.1, 1096.6, 1096.4, -1.4, +0.7, -0.7,
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1095.9, 1095.9, 1096.0, +0.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1094.01, 1094.01, +1.7, +4.0
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.1
Was determined again to take the breakouts, when they fulfilled the Trade Plan requirements and were not filtered out by caveats. Today, nearly missed a short on break on the way down because I failed to set up my platform for a stp-n-rev trigger. After it broke, it returned for a moment back up to the breakdown level, which means I only caught that short by luck, as many breakdowns do not have initial counter trend reactions, and instead, just run away. As it was, had I used the two-contract breakout strategy on stp-n-rev's I had intended, I would have exited one with +0.4 TF, and been stop-d out the second on the initial counter-break reaction at -0.4 TF, net nothing. As it was, since I entered on a pullback after the breakdown, I got a better fill than the breakdown itself, and was in with a pullback auto-strategy, which exited the first of two contracts at the better +0.7, and left the second open for some play. If this was the more normal occurrence to breakouts, it would beg the question as to whether breakouts are generally better taken not on the breakout itself with a stop-entry order, but on a pullback into the pre-breakdown pause pattern that spawned it. Breakouts are tricky, and again this throws me back into some research.
The best part of my trading today, however, was not the usual absence of my balking at a Trade Plan breakout play, but the persistence I showed when the final buy signal came in the TF near the Low of Day. With a support number at 1094.0, I called entry at 94.01 into a strong Serial Sequent structure buy signal. I remember some years ago when pulling such a trigger against all the usual beginner Do-Not-Do rules, such as, 'never buy a new low', would have kept me out of that trade. But with the True Trend Momentum Indicator actually turning up while the market was making that new low, and a significant exhaustion level being penetrated for the necessary finishing confluence, I was able to enter that order without much emotion at all, and could see to call off the initial targets for better profits than the auto-exits would have on the way up.
And finally, another good night's sleep, with about an hour earlier to bed than usual, lent a distinct background to the mental ease with which I seemed to approach trading today. That odd paradox of patience and persistence seemed to be right at my beckoning when needed. Get your needed rest. Stay focused. Follow your Trade Plan. If your plan is not working, go back to the simulator until it does, or until you've found a Trade Plan that actually works far more often than it fails. You're lost without it.
Mon Nov 4 Trades & Journal
20131104
Long 2 TF 1098.1, 1098.1, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3375.5, 3375.75, +1.5, -1.5
Long 1 YM 15585, -5
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.4, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1095.3, 1095.1, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1557.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3374.75, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -0.4, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1100.3, 1100.3, 1100.2, +0.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1100.6, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.2, +0.4, +1.3
Long 2 YM 15526, 15525, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1099.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1098.3, +1.6
Total NQ -1.5
Total ES +1.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +6.2
Significant divergence, as seen today, between the usual leader TF and say the lagging ES or YM, can be challenging. But was able to keep fairly cool head today and let the signals develop separately for decent trades. Spent a good deal of time going over the Trade Plan rules for breakouts this weekend, and found myself more easily in tune with buying that TF breakout late in its bullish 1st hour spike, just by sticking to the rules regardless of the apprehensions associated with it at the time. Furthermore, was also able thereafter to flip the switch and short the TF when the top signal came in, thus catching a piece of the reversal back down. Also, can't eliminate the Fall-back aspect of daylight savings time, as with that extra hour of sleep, seemed especially well rested this morning. Let that be a hint worthy of repetition. ....
Long 2 TF 1098.1, 1098.1, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3375.5, 3375.75, +1.5, -1.5
Long 1 YM 15585, -5
Long 2 TF 1096.3, 1096.1, -0.4, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1095.3, 1095.1, +1.7, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1557.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3374.75, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -0.4, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1100.3, 1100.3, 1100.2, +0.5, -0.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1100.6, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.2, +0.4, +1.3
Long 2 YM 15526, 15525, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1099.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1098.3, +1.6
Total NQ -1.5
Total ES +1.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +6.2
Significant divergence, as seen today, between the usual leader TF and say the lagging ES or YM, can be challenging. But was able to keep fairly cool head today and let the signals develop separately for decent trades. Spent a good deal of time going over the Trade Plan rules for breakouts this weekend, and found myself more easily in tune with buying that TF breakout late in its bullish 1st hour spike, just by sticking to the rules regardless of the apprehensions associated with it at the time. Furthermore, was also able thereafter to flip the switch and short the TF when the top signal came in, thus catching a piece of the reversal back down. Also, can't eliminate the Fall-back aspect of daylight savings time, as with that extra hour of sleep, seemed especially well rested this morning. Let that be a hint worthy of repetition. ....
Fri Nov 1 Trades
20131101
Short 1 TF 1098.7, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1758.0, 1758.0, +1.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1758.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15564, 15565, +10, +6
Long 1 TF 1096.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1096.0, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1097.6, 1097.2, -0.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1092.5, 1092.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.3, 1092.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +2.6
Short 1 TF 1098.7, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1758.0, 1758.0, +1.0, -0.25
Short 1 ES 1758.25, -0.75
Short 2 YM 15564, 15565, +10, +6
Long 1 TF 1096.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1096.0, +1.4
Long 2 TF 1097.6, 1097.2, -0.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1092.5, 1092.9, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.3, 1092.1, +0.5, +0.7
Total ES -0.0
Total YM +16
Total TF +2.6
Thurs Oct 31 Trades & Journal
20131031
Short 1 YM 15570, +12
Long 2 TF 1101.8, 1101.6, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3365.5, 3365.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 15497, +15
Long 2 YM 15504, 15501, -1, +7
Short 2 TF 1097.8, 1097.9, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1097.8, +1.2
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1106.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1102.9, 1103.1, -0.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.3
The trade signals were clear at the early top today, but only managed to get one contract in the YM. Instead of staying focused on getting a 2nd there, moved to the preferred TF contract which failed to complete the signal before the ensuing collapse. I was being too careful, and should have gotten that other YM. When the signal is in, take the signal and get the fills. You came here to take calculated risks. Sometimes those trades are going to fail. That's a given. But you must show commitment to the trade model. You defined with some precision for a reason. Get in the trade. Since today's selling was following a Persistent Trend Day Down, the model called for a bullish reversal. This one failed to fulfill the model requirements, and thus was left waiting for a pullback to get in longs. The final signal came as a breakout, and as it came just at the end of the 1st Frame, I allowed myself to be filtered out of that trade call altogether. It succeeded without me, but do believe that cutting off breakout signals at some point between the 1st and Midday Frames is still good business when the 1st Frame has demonstrated volatility, yin-yang. Stay with the plan. Improve the behavior. Get focused for the entries and execute.
PM Addendum:
not dissimilar results in PM to AM, in that was short near the HOD, but with only a 1 lot, and failed to capitalize on the decline with a runner as it developed deeper than expected. "Position yourself to be surprised", was a favorite saying of my mentor, Randolph Newman. In this case, however, I cannot fault myself as badly as this morning's 1-lot positioning, as I only go into the PM session for further trades if the AM has a good profit cushion, which today, I did not. Tomorrow is Friday, but will try to be fresh and prepared, as have had no losing days either this week or last.
Short 1 YM 15570, +12
Long 2 TF 1101.8, 1101.6, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3365.5, 3365.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 15497, +15
Long 2 YM 15504, 15501, -1, +7
Short 2 TF 1097.8, 1097.9, -0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1097.8, +1.2
PM trades:
Short 1 TF 1106.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1102.9, 1103.1, -0.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1100.7, +1.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +2.3
The trade signals were clear at the early top today, but only managed to get one contract in the YM. Instead of staying focused on getting a 2nd there, moved to the preferred TF contract which failed to complete the signal before the ensuing collapse. I was being too careful, and should have gotten that other YM. When the signal is in, take the signal and get the fills. You came here to take calculated risks. Sometimes those trades are going to fail. That's a given. But you must show commitment to the trade model. You defined with some precision for a reason. Get in the trade. Since today's selling was following a Persistent Trend Day Down, the model called for a bullish reversal. This one failed to fulfill the model requirements, and thus was left waiting for a pullback to get in longs. The final signal came as a breakout, and as it came just at the end of the 1st Frame, I allowed myself to be filtered out of that trade call altogether. It succeeded without me, but do believe that cutting off breakout signals at some point between the 1st and Midday Frames is still good business when the 1st Frame has demonstrated volatility, yin-yang. Stay with the plan. Improve the behavior. Get focused for the entries and execute.
PM Addendum:
not dissimilar results in PM to AM, in that was short near the HOD, but with only a 1 lot, and failed to capitalize on the decline with a runner as it developed deeper than expected. "Position yourself to be surprised", was a favorite saying of my mentor, Randolph Newman. In this case, however, I cannot fault myself as badly as this morning's 1-lot positioning, as I only go into the PM session for further trades if the AM has a good profit cushion, which today, I did not. Tomorrow is Friday, but will try to be fresh and prepared, as have had no losing days either this week or last.
Wed Oct 30 Trades & Journal
20131030
Short 2 YM 15648, 15648, +7, +25
Long 2 TF 1116.4, 1116.3, -0.4, +0.4
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 ES 1766.0, 1766.5, 1766.0, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15609, 15612, +7, +15
Long 1 YM 15618, +10
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.0, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1112.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15609, -5
Short 1 YM 15599, -1
Long 1 TF 1115.5, -0.5
Long 1 YM 15590, -1
Long 2 TF 1108.5, 1108.4, -0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15590, 15589, +14, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.0
PM trades:
Long 1 YM 15615, +20
Long 2 YM 15583, 15583, -4, -4
Long 2 TF 1102.6, 1102.4, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1102.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1102.5, 1102.5, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1102.2, 1102.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15513, 15513, +7, +20
Total YM +115
Total ES -1.0
Total TF -1.5
Gave into several weaknesses today. The first is that I took too many trades in the AM. My excuse was that the YM signals were so good, but far less profitable than successful trades would have been in the TF, if I had made any successful trades in the TF, that is. Those were scant, but the YM success kept me coming back for more TF. And same story for the FOMC volatility in the PM session. It was if the TF and YM were trading on different days of the week, both yesterday and today, so it does complicate things, especially as my Trade Models usually assemble around a confluence of disparate technical phenomena from several contracts. Since I'm using the same event models for both contracts, when one is failing repeatedly at support/resistance/exhaustion zones, you might realize the issue has persistence, and simply avoid fresh positions in that contract for the rest of the day. But that wisdom is usually only acquired too late. I'll let this day settle on me a bit, and try to come back to its significance in the days ahead. There's something initially intangible regarding trade behavior to learn from this.... but not sure how to convey it in precise enough language yet to be of any self-help. Stay focused. Each day is different, but your Trading Plan and behavior governors do not change.
Short 2 YM 15648, 15648, +7, +25
Long 2 TF 1116.4, 1116.3, -0.4, +0.4
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.7, -0.4
Long 3 ES 1766.0, 1766.5, 1766.0, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15609, 15612, +7, +15
Long 1 YM 15618, +10
Long 2 TF 1113.2, 1113.0, -0.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1112.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 15609, -5
Short 1 YM 15599, -1
Long 1 TF 1115.5, -0.5
Long 1 YM 15590, -1
Long 2 TF 1108.5, 1108.4, -0.7, +0.7
Long 2 YM 15590, 15589, +14, +5
Long 1 TF 1108.2, +1.0
PM trades:
Long 1 YM 15615, +20
Long 2 YM 15583, 15583, -4, -4
Long 2 TF 1102.6, 1102.4, -0.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1102.9, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1102.5, 1102.5, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1102.2, 1102.2, -0.4, -0.4
Long 2 YM 15513, 15513, +7, +20
Total YM +115
Total ES -1.0
Total TF -1.5
Gave into several weaknesses today. The first is that I took too many trades in the AM. My excuse was that the YM signals were so good, but far less profitable than successful trades would have been in the TF, if I had made any successful trades in the TF, that is. Those were scant, but the YM success kept me coming back for more TF. And same story for the FOMC volatility in the PM session. It was if the TF and YM were trading on different days of the week, both yesterday and today, so it does complicate things, especially as my Trade Models usually assemble around a confluence of disparate technical phenomena from several contracts. Since I'm using the same event models for both contracts, when one is failing repeatedly at support/resistance/exhaustion zones, you might realize the issue has persistence, and simply avoid fresh positions in that contract for the rest of the day. But that wisdom is usually only acquired too late. I'll let this day settle on me a bit, and try to come back to its significance in the days ahead. There's something initially intangible regarding trade behavior to learn from this.... but not sure how to convey it in precise enough language yet to be of any self-help. Stay focused. Each day is different, but your Trading Plan and behavior governors do not change.
Tues Oct 29 Trades & Journal
20131029
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.8, +0.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1117.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 3378.25, 3378.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1117.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1118.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.5, +0.8, +0.7
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.0
The Trader can so easily fall into habitual behavior. And once in, it's like stepping into concrete. Your feet just won't let you out. With breakouts, I have a reasonable excuse; I'm still looking for the right set of filters to screen out the less-likely-to-succeed. But with position size and greater excursion, I have no real excuse--other than that of ingrained habits. The fact that I've been making a 1st Frame quota by trading 1-lot positions this past month or so only helps to dry out the cement around my feet. Today, right at the Trend Check, with an ideal entry presenting itself, I again took a 1-lot position, not out of any fear that 2 might be unsafe, but simply because I was just so comfortable selecting the 1-lot trade strategy at that moment, that I didn't even remember my commitment to work on extending my excursions. Maybe it was just he rainy day outside... Tomorrow, I'll be more committed to increasing size and excursion. Be committed to change. Discipline is an ongoing practice. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.8, +0.7, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1117.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 3378.25, 3378.75, -1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1117.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1118.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.5, +0.8, +0.7
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +5.0
The Trader can so easily fall into habitual behavior. And once in, it's like stepping into concrete. Your feet just won't let you out. With breakouts, I have a reasonable excuse; I'm still looking for the right set of filters to screen out the less-likely-to-succeed. But with position size and greater excursion, I have no real excuse--other than that of ingrained habits. The fact that I've been making a 1st Frame quota by trading 1-lot positions this past month or so only helps to dry out the cement around my feet. Today, right at the Trend Check, with an ideal entry presenting itself, I again took a 1-lot position, not out of any fear that 2 might be unsafe, but simply because I was just so comfortable selecting the 1-lot trade strategy at that moment, that I didn't even remember my commitment to work on extending my excursions. Maybe it was just he rainy day outside... Tomorrow, I'll be more committed to increasing size and excursion. Be committed to change. Discipline is an ongoing practice. Stay focused.
Mon Oct 28 Trades & Journal
20131028
Long 1 TF 1115.0, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1116.9, +1.1
Long 2 YM 14488, 15490, -2, +7
Short 1 ES 1757.25, +0.25
Short 1 NQ 3379.25, +2.25
Long 1 TF 1115.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1111.3, 111.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1110.1, +1.4
Total Ym +5
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +4.7
When is a trade only worth holding for a minimum profit and when is it worth taking multiple lots and peeling them down to a runner....? Well, if I had that answer definitively, my trading would take one giant step for mankind. For instance, although I was short both the ES and the NQ near the highs of the 1st Frame today, I could not be sure enough that we had reached a final buying climax in the that early bull trend til it was well behind me, and I had already exited. In fact, the ES was producing so poorly I dumped it immediately as the NQ continued to peel off. One solution is to step out of shorts as support and structure approach, but look for stp n rev levels back to short should the apparent pullback gather enough extension to warrant the identity of a new trend. Breakouts are my weakest play. I find then so fraught with failure, that, like today, I'll pass on committing to an entry at the breakout level in anticipation of a bounce that gives me a pullback in-trend entry, rather than going with a fresh break. But the market is not always so accommodating, especially on the bear side, where once it gets the message that the trend has turned down, often leaves the station on the express train, and waits for no man. We continue to examine our breakout filters, and hope to eventually crystallize a more concrete set of parameters with which to govern trade behavior at those critical junctures. Always be a student... both of the markets, and your own trading behavior.
Long 1 TF 1115.0, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1116.9, +1.1
Long 2 YM 14488, 15490, -2, +7
Short 1 ES 1757.25, +0.25
Short 1 NQ 3379.25, +2.25
Long 1 TF 1115.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1112.8, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1111.3, 111.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1110.1, +1.4
Total Ym +5
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +4.7
When is a trade only worth holding for a minimum profit and when is it worth taking multiple lots and peeling them down to a runner....? Well, if I had that answer definitively, my trading would take one giant step for mankind. For instance, although I was short both the ES and the NQ near the highs of the 1st Frame today, I could not be sure enough that we had reached a final buying climax in the that early bull trend til it was well behind me, and I had already exited. In fact, the ES was producing so poorly I dumped it immediately as the NQ continued to peel off. One solution is to step out of shorts as support and structure approach, but look for stp n rev levels back to short should the apparent pullback gather enough extension to warrant the identity of a new trend. Breakouts are my weakest play. I find then so fraught with failure, that, like today, I'll pass on committing to an entry at the breakout level in anticipation of a bounce that gives me a pullback in-trend entry, rather than going with a fresh break. But the market is not always so accommodating, especially on the bear side, where once it gets the message that the trend has turned down, often leaves the station on the express train, and waits for no man. We continue to examine our breakout filters, and hope to eventually crystallize a more concrete set of parameters with which to govern trade behavior at those critical junctures. Always be a student... both of the markets, and your own trading behavior.
Fri Oct 25 Trades & Journal
20131025
Short 2 NQ 3382.50, 3384.5, -3.0, -1.5
Short 3 NQ 3385.2, 3386.5, 3386.25, +2.0, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1117.5, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.4, +0.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +3.0
I've often been reminded by the day's net outcome to trading activity accomplished without a good night's sleep. This was especially evident today. But it showed up mostly in my exits. Just didn't have the heart to hold on, especially considering that the Trade Plan got us short just a few ticks from the high-of-day in the TF, and I profited so little from it. Easy to have an excuse on Friday, and glad to be off for a few days with family. All the best ....and stay focused.
Short 2 NQ 3382.50, 3384.5, -3.0, -1.5
Short 3 NQ 3385.2, 3386.5, 3386.25, +2.0, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1117.5, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.4, +0.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +3.0
I've often been reminded by the day's net outcome to trading activity accomplished without a good night's sleep. This was especially evident today. But it showed up mostly in my exits. Just didn't have the heart to hold on, especially considering that the Trade Plan got us short just a few ticks from the high-of-day in the TF, and I profited so little from it. Easy to have an excuse on Friday, and glad to be off for a few days with family. All the best ....and stay focused.
Thurs Oct 24 Trades & Journal
20131024
Long 2 ES 1740.5, 1740.25, +2.0, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3343.5, 3343.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3344.0, 3345.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1112.6, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1110.9, 1110.5, +1.0, +0.7
Total ES +3.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.2
Holding onto positions to get their fuller excursions is perhaps the biggest challenge of all. The markets are so volatile, and in the 1st frame where I concentrate my entries, the whiplash action pushes you out of trades mentally often too soon. That, and finding the right breakout filters are the two areas in need of most of my focus on improvement. The issue of the right breakout filters is a work in progress in study and post-market closing time studies, and not a mental issue. Exiting too soon, that's a mental thing entirely, and is complicated by the needed confidence of taking more than one or two contracts when a trade signal appears. Will try to bring more focus into that issue in the coming days ahead, here in the journal. Stay focused.....
Long 2 ES 1740.5, 1740.25, +2.0, +1.5
Short 2 NQ 3343.5, 3343.0, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3344.0, 3345.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1112.6, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1110.9, 1110.5, +1.0, +0.7
Total ES +3.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.2
Holding onto positions to get their fuller excursions is perhaps the biggest challenge of all. The markets are so volatile, and in the 1st frame where I concentrate my entries, the whiplash action pushes you out of trades mentally often too soon. That, and finding the right breakout filters are the two areas in need of most of my focus on improvement. The issue of the right breakout filters is a work in progress in study and post-market closing time studies, and not a mental issue. Exiting too soon, that's a mental thing entirely, and is complicated by the needed confidence of taking more than one or two contracts when a trade signal appears. Will try to bring more focus into that issue in the coming days ahead, here in the journal. Stay focused.....
Wed Oct 23 Trades & Journal
20131023
Long 1 NQ 3341.5, +4
Short 1 NQ 3348.25, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3337.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3334.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1008.5, 1008.6, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3339.75, 3339.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1007.4, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 3327.75, 3327.75, +2.0, +4.75
Total NQ +22.25
Total TF +1.2
Sometimes buy signal in one contract can come at the same time as a sell signal arrives in another. In Serial Sequent rules, the outcome can depend on which, if either, is also a stp-n-rev signal when if the raw turn signal fails. This inflection only occurs at certain junctures. You have to think fast on your feet. Today, I succeeded in going with the NQ stp n rev short signal while the TF was flashing an intial buy. I managed to bite my tongue just a minute delay in the TF buy signal to stay with the NQ short. That worked for an initial NQ short profit, but I also lost focus of the TF exhaustion zone reversal, and before I knew it, TF had reversed so sharply that it was too far to chase. But signals in the NQ continued to appear, so just stayed with it, till something clearer in the TF showed its face. Trading requires tremendous focus. Any off balance to one's mental state can affect your game tremendously. If there are other, outside issues influencing your morning, don't trade. Walk away from the screen. It doesn't matter what the numbers are tomorrow. Tomorrow is the same day, but will just different numbers. You won't miss a thing. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 NQ 3341.5, +4
Short 1 NQ 3348.25, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3337.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 3334.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1008.5, 1008.6, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3339.75, 3339.75, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1007.4, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 3327.75, 3327.75, +2.0, +4.75
Total NQ +22.25
Total TF +1.2
Sometimes buy signal in one contract can come at the same time as a sell signal arrives in another. In Serial Sequent rules, the outcome can depend on which, if either, is also a stp-n-rev signal when if the raw turn signal fails. This inflection only occurs at certain junctures. You have to think fast on your feet. Today, I succeeded in going with the NQ stp n rev short signal while the TF was flashing an intial buy. I managed to bite my tongue just a minute delay in the TF buy signal to stay with the NQ short. That worked for an initial NQ short profit, but I also lost focus of the TF exhaustion zone reversal, and before I knew it, TF had reversed so sharply that it was too far to chase. But signals in the NQ continued to appear, so just stayed with it, till something clearer in the TF showed its face. Trading requires tremendous focus. Any off balance to one's mental state can affect your game tremendously. If there are other, outside issues influencing your morning, don't trade. Walk away from the screen. It doesn't matter what the numbers are tomorrow. Tomorrow is the same day, but will just different numbers. You won't miss a thing. Stay disciplined.
Tues Oct 22 Trades & Journal
20131022
Short 1 YM 15368, -10
Short 2 TF 1117.4, 1117.5, -0.5, -1.2
Short 4 TF 1118.6, 1118.6, 1118.5, 1118.6, +0.4, -0.6, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1750.0, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1119.0, 1118.9, -0.7, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1120.1, 1120.0, 1120.2, +2.7, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1115.1, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, -0.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1113.7, +1.4
PM trades
Short 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +0.9, +0.7
Total ES -1.75
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.6
Large extensions in both directions can be challenging. A second set of sell signals kept me in the game, and were definitely fit Trade Models from the plan. But once the selling got started, didn't get a chance to re enter after taking profits. Any profit taking on shorts was too early as the drop was vertical. But hard to pass up a 3 pt profit on the 3rd contract, and would usually be a foolish move, as such a fast drop not easy to anticipate. Early exits come from playing catch up to initial losses. But it's important not to let winners that restore health go untaken. There are always more trades..... Stay focused.
Addendum:
Price and pattern reached good short entry level for an Trade Entry Model short, but I dumped the potential runner too quickly thinking, just as I had done at the AM highs, that I'd get another immediate retest to re-short with. Entries, as tough as they were today, are still far easier than exits, and that is the area in which I most need improvement.
Short 1 YM 15368, -10
Short 2 TF 1117.4, 1117.5, -0.5, -1.2
Short 4 TF 1118.6, 1118.6, 1118.5, 1118.6, +0.4, -0.6, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1750.0, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1119.0, 1118.9, -0.7, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1120.1, 1120.0, 1120.2, +2.7, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1115.1, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1113.9, 1113.9, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, -0.2, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1113.7, +1.4
PM trades
Short 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +0.9, +0.7
Total ES -1.75
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.6
Large extensions in both directions can be challenging. A second set of sell signals kept me in the game, and were definitely fit Trade Models from the plan. But once the selling got started, didn't get a chance to re enter after taking profits. Any profit taking on shorts was too early as the drop was vertical. But hard to pass up a 3 pt profit on the 3rd contract, and would usually be a foolish move, as such a fast drop not easy to anticipate. Early exits come from playing catch up to initial losses. But it's important not to let winners that restore health go untaken. There are always more trades..... Stay focused.
Addendum:
Price and pattern reached good short entry level for an Trade Entry Model short, but I dumped the potential runner too quickly thinking, just as I had done at the AM highs, that I'd get another immediate retest to re-short with. Entries, as tough as they were today, are still far easier than exits, and that is the area in which I most need improvement.
Mon Oct 21 Trades & Journal
20131021
Long 2 YM 15305, 15306, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15322, 15321, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 1115.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1115.4, 1115.7, +.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 15343, 15343, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15329, 15329, +7, +14
Short 1 YM 15308, -6
Short 2 TF 1110.8, 1110.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +52
Total TF +1.2
Breakdown trades continue to be tricky. I chose the YM because it had been the weaker up the point where breakdown levels were being reached by the TF and YM. But the TF took over bear leadership signals just a few minutes prior to that, and I ignored it. I missed the good bear trade because I had been slow to the signs of change in structure. The market is seldom logical, but it is always fair. Stay alert. Stay focused.
Long 2 YM 15305, 15306, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15322, 15321, +7, -7
Short 1 TF 1115.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, +7, -4
Short 1 TF 1115.4, 1115.7, +.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 15343, 15343, +7, +10
Short 2 YM 15329, 15329, +7, +14
Short 1 YM 15308, -6
Short 2 TF 1110.8, 1110.9, -0.0, -0.3
Total YM +52
Total TF +1.2
Breakdown trades continue to be tricky. I chose the YM because it had been the weaker up the point where breakdown levels were being reached by the TF and YM. But the TF took over bear leadership signals just a few minutes prior to that, and I ignored it. I missed the good bear trade because I had been slow to the signs of change in structure. The market is seldom logical, but it is always fair. Stay alert. Stay focused.
Fri Oct 18 Trades & Journal
20131018
Short 1 TF 1106.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.9, -1.1, -.5
Short 3 YM 15318, 15318, 15316, +7, -5, -6
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.9
Short 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.5, +2.1, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15318, 15318, +7, +15
Short 1 TF 1105.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1105.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1105.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15292, 15292, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 1106.0, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15291, 15291, -3, -3
Short 1 TF 1106.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +1.8
Turning points are not always clean. Take note of extreme divergence as we saw today in a much weaker YM to NQ's relative strength. The TF can get caught in the middle, and as a result, there's a lot of whiplash at the turns. Stepping back into a trade once stopped out is ok if the signal is still there, and the whiplash can be seen as nothing but stop-threatening noise at the turns. But you also have budget limitations to obey in your plan, both to amount of risk and to number of trades. Stick with your Trade Plan. ....and enjoy your weekend...!!
Short 1 TF 1106.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.9, -1.1, -.5
Short 3 YM 15318, 15318, 15316, +7, -5, -6
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.9
Short 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.5, +2.1, +0.5
Short 2 YM 15318, 15318, +7, +15
Short 1 TF 1105.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1105.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1105.4, -0.6
Short 2 YM 15292, 15292, -4, -4
Short 1 TF 1106.0, -0.3
Short 2 YM 15291, 15291, -3, -3
Short 1 TF 1106.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +1.8
Turning points are not always clean. Take note of extreme divergence as we saw today in a much weaker YM to NQ's relative strength. The TF can get caught in the middle, and as a result, there's a lot of whiplash at the turns. Stepping back into a trade once stopped out is ok if the signal is still there, and the whiplash can be seen as nothing but stop-threatening noise at the turns. But you also have budget limitations to obey in your plan, both to amount of risk and to number of trades. Stick with your Trade Plan. ....and enjoy your weekend...!!
Thur Oct 17 Trades & Journal
20131017
Short 2 YM 15219, 15220, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1089.8, 1089.8, +1.0, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15202, 15202, +7, +15
Short 2 TF 1091.7, 1091.6, -0.2, +0.2
Total YM +39
Total TF +2.5
Most days, am grateful that breakout trades taken with such strict filters. Today was for fading new HOD's and buying the pullbacks. Those came well within Trade Plan guidelines. Stick to your Plan!
Short 2 YM 15219, 15220, +7, +10
Short 2 TF 1089.8, 1089.8, +1.0, +1.5
Long 2 YM 15202, 15202, +7, +15
Short 2 TF 1091.7, 1091.6, -0.2, +0.2
Total YM +39
Total TF +2.5
Most days, am grateful that breakout trades taken with such strict filters. Today was for fading new HOD's and buying the pullbacks. Those came well within Trade Plan guidelines. Stick to your Plan!
Wed Oct 16 Trades & Journal
20131016
Short 2 YM 15251 15249, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 1087.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1089.6, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1090.2, 1090.2, 1090.5, +2.0, +1.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1088.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1087.4, 1087.2, +1.2, +0.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +4.2
Breakout players have been well rewarded lately with all the bull impulse moves. Normally, these only appear a few times a month, and the rest is swing time. But these are appearing back to back and such things in the markets cause a feeling of being left out. The rest of the time, breakout players can get whacked so easily, as breakouts are prone to fail on far more days in a month--normally--than do succeed. In any case, our Trade Plan got us into sync quickly with the big swings that appeared in the TF after a 2nd exhaustion signal. We remain a student of the market, and as such, continue to examine breakout triggers in detail. The Plan is always open for improvement, but never to chase an idea that worked recently but fails most of the time. We'll continue to look at structure for breakout triggers rather than pure price, and believe the best breakout techniques are yet to be developed into Technical Event Models. Stay tuned.... and stay disciplined. !!
Short 2 YM 15251 15249, -3, -5
Short 1 TF 1087.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1089.6, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1090.2, 1090.2, 1090.5, +2.0, +1.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1088.0, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1087.4, 1087.2, +1.2, +0.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +4.2
Breakout players have been well rewarded lately with all the bull impulse moves. Normally, these only appear a few times a month, and the rest is swing time. But these are appearing back to back and such things in the markets cause a feeling of being left out. The rest of the time, breakout players can get whacked so easily, as breakouts are prone to fail on far more days in a month--normally--than do succeed. In any case, our Trade Plan got us into sync quickly with the big swings that appeared in the TF after a 2nd exhaustion signal. We remain a student of the market, and as such, continue to examine breakout triggers in detail. The Plan is always open for improvement, but never to chase an idea that worked recently but fails most of the time. We'll continue to look at structure for breakout triggers rather than pure price, and believe the best breakout techniques are yet to be developed into Technical Event Models. Stay tuned.... and stay disciplined. !!
Tues Oct 15 Trades & Journal
20131015
Long 1 YM 15163, -10
Long 2 NQ 3241.5, 3241.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 15174, 15174, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1083.7, 1083.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1083.5, 1083.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3253.0, 3253.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.1, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1085.2, 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.0, +1.2, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1085.9, 1085.9, -0.3, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1081.2, +1.0
Total YM -22
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF+4.4
A leadership struggle means that long and short signals can come nearly on top of each other, and in the opposing trend directions. One of those leaders, however, is usually proven wrong right from the outset. Today, both were proven right, but at differing times, as if they were politely punting the ball back after 4 or more downs if unsuccessful in moving the chains the required 10 yards, or after having scored a touch down to new highs or lows. Whatever... it only makes the trades come a bit faster and requires keeping the overall trend prejudice to a squat nothing. Other than that... a walk in the park. Stay with your Plan. Your Trade Plan will keep the losses small and bring you back into sync, assuming the entry models you're using within your Plan work far more than they fail.
Long 1 YM 15163, -10
Long 2 NQ 3241.5, 3241.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 YM 15174, 15174, -6, -6
Short 2 TF 1083.7, 1083.4, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1083.5, 1083.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3253.0, 3253.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.1, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1085.2, 1084.5, 1084.8, -0.0, +1.2, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1085.9, 1085.9, -0.3, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1081.2, +1.0
Total YM -22
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF+4.4
A leadership struggle means that long and short signals can come nearly on top of each other, and in the opposing trend directions. One of those leaders, however, is usually proven wrong right from the outset. Today, both were proven right, but at differing times, as if they were politely punting the ball back after 4 or more downs if unsuccessful in moving the chains the required 10 yards, or after having scored a touch down to new highs or lows. Whatever... it only makes the trades come a bit faster and requires keeping the overall trend prejudice to a squat nothing. Other than that... a walk in the park. Stay with your Plan. Your Trade Plan will keep the losses small and bring you back into sync, assuming the entry models you're using within your Plan work far more than they fail.
Mon Oct 14 Trade Summary
20131014
Long 2 TF 1076.0, 1076.0, +0.4, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1075.2, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1075.2, +1.4
Total TF +1.5
Long 2 TF 1076.0, 1076.0, +0.4, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1075.2, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1075.2, +1.4
Total TF +1.5
Fri Oct 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131011
Short 1 NQ 3203.75, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1686.75, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.0, 1068.0, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3209.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.7, +0.4, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.5, +1.4, +0.4
Total NQ -3.0
Total ES -1.0
Total TF +5.2
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in row is very rare without some strong reversal action. So kept to the short side on resistances, and initial pullbacks were profitable. But no serious corrective selling appeared on pullbacks, except for large pullback in the YM, which I was not in. On the one hand, there's 'being right'. On the other, there's making a profit. Never confuse the two. Trade from Technical Entry Models. Define them into a Plan. Trade the Plan not your opinions. ...a good weekend to all...
20131011
Short 1 NQ 3203.75, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1686.75, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.0, 1068.0, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3209.75, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.7, +0.4, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.4, 1070.5, +1.4, +0.4
Total NQ -3.0
Total ES -1.0
Total TF +5.2
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in row is very rare without some strong reversal action. So kept to the short side on resistances, and initial pullbacks were profitable. But no serious corrective selling appeared on pullbacks, except for large pullback in the YM, which I was not in. On the one hand, there's 'being right'. On the other, there's making a profit. Never confuse the two. Trade from Technical Entry Models. Define them into a Plan. Trade the Plan not your opinions. ...a good weekend to all...
Thurs Oct 10 Trades & Journal
20131010
Short 2 TF 1058.1, 1058.1, +.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1673.25, 1673.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14917, 14919, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3178.75, 3178.25, +3.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1060.7, -0.3
Short 1 ES 1076.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 3189.5, 3189.5, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1059.1, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1059.0, 1058.6, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1058.0, +1.0
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ +12
Total TF +0.9
Each day his its own challenges, and very large gap openings have theirs. but if you have patience, and it's not a grinding Persistent Trend, pullbacks will usually come, and with them the opportunities it takes to participate. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. There are lots of trades outside your current Trade Plan. And when they have merit, they can still be monitored as you stick to those you know and trust. Always be a student. Trade Plans should evolve slowly, and not with an idea you picked up just the other day. You have plenty of time to watch what you are still learning and observing. When you see it work for a few hundred times, then consider moving it into your Plan, but not until.
Short 2 TF 1058.1, 1058.1, +.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1673.25, 1673.25, -1.25, -1.25
Short 2 YM 14917, 14919, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3178.75, 3178.25, +3.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1060.7, -0.3
Short 1 ES 1076.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 3189.5, 3189.5, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1059.1, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1059.0, 1058.6, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1058.0, +1.0
Total ES -2.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ +12
Total TF +0.9
Each day his its own challenges, and very large gap openings have theirs. but if you have patience, and it's not a grinding Persistent Trend, pullbacks will usually come, and with them the opportunities it takes to participate. Stay focused. Stick with your Trade Plan. There are lots of trades outside your current Trade Plan. And when they have merit, they can still be monitored as you stick to those you know and trust. Always be a student. Trade Plans should evolve slowly, and not with an idea you picked up just the other day. You have plenty of time to watch what you are still learning and observing. When you see it work for a few hundred times, then consider moving it into your Plan, but not until.
Wed Oct 9 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131009
Long 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.0, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14717, 14720, +10, +5
Short 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.1, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1038.7, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +3.7
Two Persistent Trend Days Down in a row are very rare, and so reversal action at lower lows fit the trading plan well for buy opps. Big swings tend to offer much better opps than vertical moves, unless of course you can catch the right breakout triggers into those vertical moves. Since so many breakouts get whipped right out of the positions quickly, the filters for breakouts are of necessity more demanding, and must eliminate the majority of potential breakout triggers from a Trade Plan. Yesterday's breakdown after the 1st Frame did offer such a trigger, but I was asleep at the switch, and should have made my last buy attempt in TF at the then current 1st hour low into a stp-n-rev short. Since the right breakout triggers are fewer and farther in between, it's easier to let the discipline necessary to stay alert for them begin to slide. Stay focused.
20131009
Long 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.0, -0.5, +0.5
Short 2 YM 14717, 14720, +10, +5
Short 2 TF 1042.8, 1043.1, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1038.7, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +3.7
Two Persistent Trend Days Down in a row are very rare, and so reversal action at lower lows fit the trading plan well for buy opps. Big swings tend to offer much better opps than vertical moves, unless of course you can catch the right breakout triggers into those vertical moves. Since so many breakouts get whipped right out of the positions quickly, the filters for breakouts are of necessity more demanding, and must eliminate the majority of potential breakout triggers from a Trade Plan. Yesterday's breakdown after the 1st Frame did offer such a trigger, but I was asleep at the switch, and should have made my last buy attempt in TF at the then current 1st hour low into a stp-n-rev short. Since the right breakout triggers are fewer and farther in between, it's easier to let the discipline necessary to stay alert for them begin to slide. Stay focused.
Tues Oct 8 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131008
Short 2 YM 14843, 14846, -5, -10
Short 3 YM 14853, 14853, 14852, +10, +12, +5
Long 2 YM 14861, 14861, -0, -5
Long 2 YM 14848, 14844, -8, +7
Long 2 YM 14842, 14840, -7, +7
Long 2 YM 14837, 14838, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 14836, 14837, -7, -6
Long 1 YM 14834, +20
Long 3 TF 1063.5, 1062.8, 1062.7, -1.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1062.0, 1061.6, -0.1, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1061.2, 1061.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1060.9, 1061.1, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.5, 1055.3, -0.8, -0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF -5.8
TF relative strength was cue for the repeated buy attempts, but the real failure to caplitalize on the breakdown was lack of attention to very subtle TF pre-breakdown trigger. 1st Frame coils tend to lead to Midday Trends, and if you miss the door, price can get away from you quickly. And nothing hurts worse than big breakout profits you miss. Feels far worse even that losing trades. The overall 1st Frame coil and its subsequent breakdown deserves close study. Learn from your mistakes. Mine were pretty obvious today. But I'll be back tomorrow.....
20131008
Short 2 YM 14843, 14846, -5, -10
Short 3 YM 14853, 14853, 14852, +10, +12, +5
Long 2 YM 14861, 14861, -0, -5
Long 2 YM 14848, 14844, -8, +7
Long 2 YM 14842, 14840, -7, +7
Long 2 YM 14837, 14838, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 14836, 14837, -7, -6
Long 1 YM 14834, +20
Long 3 TF 1063.5, 1062.8, 1062.7, -1.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1062.0, 1061.6, -0.1, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1061.2, 1061.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1060.9, 1061.1, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.5, 1055.3, -0.8, -0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF -5.8
TF relative strength was cue for the repeated buy attempts, but the real failure to caplitalize on the breakdown was lack of attention to very subtle TF pre-breakdown trigger. 1st Frame coils tend to lead to Midday Trends, and if you miss the door, price can get away from you quickly. And nothing hurts worse than big breakout profits you miss. Feels far worse even that losing trades. The overall 1st Frame coil and its subsequent breakdown deserves close study. Learn from your mistakes. Mine were pretty obvious today. But I'll be back tomorrow.....
Mon Oct 7 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131007
Short 2 TF 1067.0, 1067.2, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1068.2, 1068.3, 1068.3, +2.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1065.1, 1065.5, 1065.6, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3226.5, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1067.3, 1067.4, 1067.2, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14924, 15923, 15921, +7, +20, +7
Short 3 TF 1070.0, 1070.8, 1070.9, -0.2, +1.7, +1.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +34
Total TF +3.4
Trading can be a lot like boxing. You take a few hits to the face sometimes in order that you find your opponent has created an opening. Today's TF extra volatility spikes at the sell levels did just that. The first one hit me so hard it blew through default stp's on both contracts, but although a bit dazed, could see that it had simply pushed all the way to the next resistance level while still in the same signal zone. Volatility is something to be treasured, not feared. But without a methodology to interpret market structure, it can really chew you up quickly. But after being stp'd out, if the signal is still there, then re entering the trade from a flat position can be the best solution to a losing trade, and the shortest distance back to being in sync. This takes three things to accomplish. 1.), A methodology to identify structural fruition and trend pivots before they have arrived. 2.), A trade plan to accommodate this methodology and give structure to one's behavior. and 3.), self discipline to stick to the plan when emotions tell you otherwise.
20131007
Short 2 TF 1067.0, 1067.2, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1068.2, 1068.3, 1068.3, +2.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 3 TF 1065.1, 1065.5, 1065.6, -0.0, -0.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3226.5, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1067.3, 1067.4, 1067.2, -0.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 YM 14924, 15923, 15921, +7, +20, +7
Short 3 TF 1070.0, 1070.8, 1070.9, -0.2, +1.7, +1.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total YM +34
Total TF +3.4
Trading can be a lot like boxing. You take a few hits to the face sometimes in order that you find your opponent has created an opening. Today's TF extra volatility spikes at the sell levels did just that. The first one hit me so hard it blew through default stp's on both contracts, but although a bit dazed, could see that it had simply pushed all the way to the next resistance level while still in the same signal zone. Volatility is something to be treasured, not feared. But without a methodology to interpret market structure, it can really chew you up quickly. But after being stp'd out, if the signal is still there, then re entering the trade from a flat position can be the best solution to a losing trade, and the shortest distance back to being in sync. This takes three things to accomplish. 1.), A methodology to identify structural fruition and trend pivots before they have arrived. 2.), A trade plan to accommodate this methodology and give structure to one's behavior. and 3.), self discipline to stick to the plan when emotions tell you otherwise.
Fri Oct 4 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131004
Short 2 YM 14936, 14936, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 1071.8, 1071.8, 1072.3, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.5, -0.5, -0,5
Short 4 YM 14951, 14951, 14951, 14950, +7, +10, +10, -0
Short 2 TF 1072.7, 1072.7, +0.7, +1.0
Short 3 YM 14952, 14951, 14951, -3, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.6, +1.2, +0.4
Long 2 NQ 3220.75, 3221.0, -1.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1072.4, +1.2
Total YM +13
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +1.8
Failed to take a critical stp n rev in YM today, and so failed to participate in the upside glory. Otherwise, stuck to the trading plan pretty close. Since the Trade Plan has some strict criteria for taking breakouts, I also missed a piece of the TF on the long side, but am not willing to change that plan criteria to accomodate that type of breakout yet. Am always looking for better refinement in the filters for taking breakouts, as the successful ones are so rewarding. But in general, the filter set also keeps me out of a lot of failing breakouts and losses. Wishing all a good weekend.
20131004
Short 2 YM 14936, 14936, -7, -7
Short 3 TF 1071.8, 1071.8, 1072.3, -0.7, -0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.5, -0.5, -0,5
Short 4 YM 14951, 14951, 14951, 14950, +7, +10, +10, -0
Short 2 TF 1072.7, 1072.7, +0.7, +1.0
Short 3 YM 14952, 14951, 14951, -3, +7, -2
Short 2 TF 1072.5, 1072.6, +1.2, +0.4
Long 2 NQ 3220.75, 3221.0, -1.0, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1072.4, +1.2
Total YM +13
Total NQ -2.25
Total TF +1.8
Failed to take a critical stp n rev in YM today, and so failed to participate in the upside glory. Otherwise, stuck to the trading plan pretty close. Since the Trade Plan has some strict criteria for taking breakouts, I also missed a piece of the TF on the long side, but am not willing to change that plan criteria to accomodate that type of breakout yet. Am always looking for better refinement in the filters for taking breakouts, as the successful ones are so rewarding. But in general, the filter set also keeps me out of a lot of failing breakouts and losses. Wishing all a good weekend.
Thurs Oct 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20131003
Long 2 YM 14969, 14969, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1071.1, 1071.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3225.75, 3226.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 YM 14946, 14946, +5, +15
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1065.0, +1.1, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1064.7, -0.2, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1064.7, +1.2
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +6.7
Although Serial Sequent Method allows for stp n rev at potential reversal levels, my Trade Plan filters those out when in the first trend direction of the day. On days when initial trend is vertical plummet, like today, that filter prevents me from participating in a big initial move. These big vertical moves have a lasting impression on the trader's psyche. He wants to for this action every day. But these days are not the norm. Test-n-Reject and swing reversals are greater percentage of Day Models. Thankfully, today's big initial trend had some great reversals and pullbacks and key Grid levels, so missing the short side initially did not preclude finding other opportunities. Stay focused. When Momentum, Wave Structure, Time Markers and Price Grid collide at the same time, there is little time for hesitation. These often come at the most emotionally challenging moments. Stay disciplined.
20131003
Long 2 YM 14969, 14969, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1071.1, 1071.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3225.75, 3226.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 YM 14946, 14946, +5, +15
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1065.0, +1.1, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1065.1, 1064.7, -0.2, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1064.7, +1.2
PM Trades:
Long 2 TF 1064.9, 1064.7, +2.0, +0.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +6.7
Although Serial Sequent Method allows for stp n rev at potential reversal levels, my Trade Plan filters those out when in the first trend direction of the day. On days when initial trend is vertical plummet, like today, that filter prevents me from participating in a big initial move. These big vertical moves have a lasting impression on the trader's psyche. He wants to for this action every day. But these days are not the norm. Test-n-Reject and swing reversals are greater percentage of Day Models. Thankfully, today's big initial trend had some great reversals and pullbacks and key Grid levels, so missing the short side initially did not preclude finding other opportunities. Stay focused. When Momentum, Wave Structure, Time Markers and Price Grid collide at the same time, there is little time for hesitation. These often come at the most emotionally challenging moments. Stay disciplined.
Tues Oct 2 Trades & Journal
20131002
Long 3 TF 1074.3, 1074.2, 1073.8, +0.5, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +2.2
Don't trade when you haven't had a good nights sleep. You're going to be worthless....or worse. Today, I got lucky. The mistakes I made were in missing several trade entry signals because I hesitated too long. ...and the market seemed about as tired as I was .... your health is an integral part of your success as a trader. Take care of it...
Long 3 TF 1074.3, 1074.2, 1073.8, +0.5, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +2.2
Don't trade when you haven't had a good nights sleep. You're going to be worthless....or worse. Today, I got lucky. The mistakes I made were in missing several trade entry signals because I hesitated too long. ...and the market seemed about as tired as I was .... your health is an integral part of your success as a trader. Take care of it...
Tues Oct 1 Trades & Journal
20131001
Short 2 TF 1075.7, 1075.8, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1074.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1077.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1075.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1076.8, 1076.7, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1077.7, 1077.5, -0.4, +0.3
Short 3 TF 1077.7, 1077.7, 1077.7, +0.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1078.7, 1078.7, +0.1, +0.9
Total TF +3.8
Bull trends usually have pullbacks. Today's early pullbacks, like yesterday's, came after the initial short signal in the NQ and ES, and required some focus apart from the TF. This time, the TF was also flashing a buy signal just a minute or so in front of the 10:00am econ reports. That provided the perfect background, so long as a premium accrued before the last 15 secs of the countdown. A 2nd unit would have been required to see the position through to the new HOD, and whether to take a 2nd is often left to an appraisal of conditions rather than a strict rule of the Trade Plan. ...or this simply might be a weakness in self discipline. That aspect has always been a point of interest in Trade Plan development, but so far, I've come to no solution. Since I favor taking a 2nd unit as price forms a base or a top against some predetermined support / exhaustion number, getting a 2nd is much harder if price vacates that area on price rejection quickly, without a bit of bouncing around. ...food for more thought...
Short 2 TF 1075.7, 1075.8, -0.5, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1074.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1077.5, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1075.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1076.8, 1076.7, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1077.7, 1077.5, -0.4, +0.3
Short 3 TF 1077.7, 1077.7, 1077.7, +0.7, +0.5, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1078.7, 1078.7, +0.1, +0.9
Total TF +3.8
Bull trends usually have pullbacks. Today's early pullbacks, like yesterday's, came after the initial short signal in the NQ and ES, and required some focus apart from the TF. This time, the TF was also flashing a buy signal just a minute or so in front of the 10:00am econ reports. That provided the perfect background, so long as a premium accrued before the last 15 secs of the countdown. A 2nd unit would have been required to see the position through to the new HOD, and whether to take a 2nd is often left to an appraisal of conditions rather than a strict rule of the Trade Plan. ...or this simply might be a weakness in self discipline. That aspect has always been a point of interest in Trade Plan development, but so far, I've come to no solution. Since I favor taking a 2nd unit as price forms a base or a top against some predetermined support / exhaustion number, getting a 2nd is much harder if price vacates that area on price rejection quickly, without a bit of bouncing around. ...food for more thought...
Mon Sep 30 Trades & Journal
20130930
Short 1 TF 1061.7, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1061.0, 1061.0, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3202.15, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 3205, 3205.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15065, 15065, -4, -4
Short 2 TF 1063.9, 1064.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1064.9, 1065.3, +1.4, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3212.5, 3212.5, -1.5, -0.75
Short 1 TF 1067.3, -0.7
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1072.9, 1073.0, 1073.8, -0, -0. +1.3
Total NQ -4.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +5.3
The internals looked so poor at the opening, they should have been regarded as good, especially the -1041 tick reading. Any 1000 tick reading rare these days, and should be regarded as initial exhaustion. The initlal shorts into the first spike up were nonetheless the Trade Model calls, and showed good profits, but my entries were impatient, and I failed to wait to a solid resistance number, forcing me to re enter from stop-outs. Be patient, wait til all elements of the model appear, then act decisively. Thereafter, the buy signal in the TF was valid, but with the 2nd buy signals failing to fill, I should have switched over to the YM or NQ in order to participate with the main rally thrust. Without a timely pullback buy entry, you are left fading the extremes of the breakouts, which are counter trend. And those must be timed fairly precisely. Today, fading paid off in the TF because pullbacks were deep enough for profits. Stay focused. Trade within the Plan.
Short 1 TF 1061.7, -0.5,
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.0, +0.5, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1061.0, 1061.0, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3202.15, -0.25
Short 2 NQ 3205, 3205.0, -1.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 15065, 15065, -4, -4
Short 2 TF 1063.9, 1064.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1064.9, 1065.3, +1.4, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 3212.5, 3212.5, -1.5, -0.75
Short 1 TF 1067.3, -0.7
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1072.9, 1073.0, 1073.8, -0, -0. +1.3
Total NQ -4.5
Total YM -8
Total TF +5.3
The internals looked so poor at the opening, they should have been regarded as good, especially the -1041 tick reading. Any 1000 tick reading rare these days, and should be regarded as initial exhaustion. The initlal shorts into the first spike up were nonetheless the Trade Model calls, and showed good profits, but my entries were impatient, and I failed to wait to a solid resistance number, forcing me to re enter from stop-outs. Be patient, wait til all elements of the model appear, then act decisively. Thereafter, the buy signal in the TF was valid, but with the 2nd buy signals failing to fill, I should have switched over to the YM or NQ in order to participate with the main rally thrust. Without a timely pullback buy entry, you are left fading the extremes of the breakouts, which are counter trend. And those must be timed fairly precisely. Today, fading paid off in the TF because pullbacks were deep enough for profits. Stay focused. Trade within the Plan.
Fri Sep 27 Trades & Journal
20130927
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Long 1 TF 1069.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1069.8, 1069.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1068.7, 1068.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1069.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1068.4, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1072.0, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 3219.75, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1075.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1075.6, 1075.5, +0.5, +1.2
Total NQ -1.5
Total TF +4.2
Trading early in the first frame requires close attention. Signals appear rapidly, and of late, action is volatile,
even though contained in a tight coil pattern. Be ready to act. When the signal comes, act decisively. No hesitation allowed. This is the business of trading in the 1st Frame. ...a good weekend to all....
Thurs Sep 26 Trades & Journal
20130926
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Short 3 YM 15281, 15287, 15288, -11, -5, -4
Short 2 NQ 3230.75, 3231.75, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1079.7, +1.7
Short 1 ES 1697.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1074.1, 1074.2, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 ES 1689.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 15247, -0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1068.8, +1.5
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -20
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +4.2
Volatile days require strict adherence to Trade Plan. As long as the signals are valid, early stop-outs must be overcome mentally if the turn signals are to be achieved with positions. Such was the case today with some extra excursion mileage coming in the early YM NQ short signals. Eventually, more solid ES and TF short signals appeared, and losses were quickly recovered. Stay focused.....
Wed Sep 25 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
20130925
Short 2 NQ 3206.0, 3206.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3198.05, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3207.5, -1.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +1.0
There is a Yin Yang to the transitions from one frame to the next. Usually, the 1st frame has all the volatility.
And if the market only coils in the 1st Frame, it's the Midday Frame that gets the trend. Today, the 1st frame was very volatile, so when it came to an end, and a TF buy signal appeared, I ignored it; partly because I tend not to trade into the Midday Frame, and partly because it usually dies off for a few hours into consolidation. But today the 1st Frame had the less common combination of both being volatile, but also a coil, and consequently, that last TF buy signal exploded into the midday with the trendiness to contrast the coil of the 1st frame. I was left watching on the sidelines. My mentor always use to say "Position yourself to be surprised." Stay focused. The Trader's role is not to predict. The Trader's role is to position.
Tues Sep 24 Trades & Journal
20130924
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Long 1 ES 1691.5, +2.25
Long 2 TF 1066.3, 1066.5, +0.7, +1.4
Long 3 TF 1065.9, 1066.1, 1065.9, +0.5, -0.0, +0.5
Long 2 YM 15308, 15304, +5, -7
Long 2 YM 15291, 15291, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1063.9, 1063.9, +0.7, +3.0
Short 3 TF 1073.5, 1073.9, 1073.9, -0.0, -0.1, -0.8
Total ES +2.25
Total YM -22
Total TF +5.9
What is counter trend and what is in-trend can be deceiving to the casual observer in the early going. Remember, Test-n-Reject is the more typical of Day Models, not Persistent Trend, so yesterday's reversal by TF following Friday's Persistent Trend Day Down in the ES and YM built up the potential of a strong Test-n-Reject today--with TF showing its hand at leadership yesterday. Having entered at the LOD, a 3 pt gain in today's reversal seemed paltry, but usually, such a reversal would be accompanied by several pullbacks as 2nd chance entries. Breakout plays were well within the Trade Plan on 2nd Trend Direction setups, but those didn't come til the momentum indicators were pushing up against the ceiling. Missing out on profits is always harder emotionally than even losing capital. Stay focused, and stay within the plan. Trade what's in front of you, that's all you can ever accomplish.
Mon Sep 23 Trades & Journal
20130923
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Long 2 TF 1067.4, 1067.4, +0.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1066.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1066.3, -0.5
Long 2 YM 15356, 15357, +6, -1
Short 2 TF 1066.1, 1065.9, -0.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1065.3, 1065.7, -01, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1065.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1064.9, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.2, -0.5
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1067.4, 1068.3, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1069.8, 1069.7, 1069.6, -0.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1070.9, 1071.0, 1071.0, +0.5, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1069.5, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1070.3, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1069.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.2, -0.2
Total YM +5
Total TF +0.1
No methods of decision support can well predict whether the action will be whippy at the breakdown levels. Serial Sequent can be deadly accurate at identifying the inflection levels associated with breakout momentum levels, but not the style of action. And today, several stp-n-rev plays into short were stopped-out. The last of 3 in a row, however, did trend nicely, but otherwise, I was treading water. The idea is always to stay with the trade plan. Some days are better for trending action than others. The trade plan should keep you healthy until then, and also contain losses to a minimum when action is less favorable.
PM Addendum
TF sudden volatility at the end the correction stop'd out my premature short entries, but can not blame anything my failure to adhere to trade plan. The structure was correct, but did not have a resistance number at the price entered, and paid the consequences. The ES and YM levels reached by comparable signals, however, did stick nicely, and had I been more flexible about contract choice, either of those would have shown excellent production. Stick to the plan. The trade management aspect of the plan kept me from losing all the AM profits, but was actually negative on the day with the commissions.
Thurs Sep 19 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
20130919
Long 2 TF 1073.0, 1073.1, +0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1071.7, 1071.1, 1071.3, -0.0, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1070.9, 1070.9, -0.0, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1072.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1069.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1070.1, 1070.0, +0.5, +0.7
Long 1 YM 15588, -3
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1069.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1069.0, -0.2
Total YM -3
Total TF +1.9
The clearer signals were from the long side in early going, but were also clearly counter trend to the bearish momentum. Best trades were pullback patterns, and although I tried two of them, I failed to make the connection to the upper line of the declining channel resistance to pick the entry targets, and by the time I figured it out, there were already 4 touch points. This was simply a matter of being lazy and not paying attention to lower frame trend lines. Focus is essential in trading. And your software programs seldom supply all the necessary elements automatically to an entry model.
Wed Sep 18 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
20130918
Short 2 YM 15448, 15448, -6, -7
Short 2 TF 1063.0, 1063.2, +1.1, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1062.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1059.9, 1059.8, -0.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1060.3, 1060.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 2 YM 15424, 15423, +7, +10
PM Trades
Short 1 TF 1070.6, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.0, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1072.1, +1.0
Total YM +4
Total TF +4.3
The YM short stop-out was within the management plan, but the TF stop out was a trade I outside of my plan, that I fudged thinking support would hold without structure. It's annoying to miss out on a trade that your intuition and expectations call for even though the trade model is broken or absent. But usually, you pay for that intuition either immediately, or later when you think you're just unbeatable that day. You aren't. When a model fails to gel, or falls apart and does not hold, exit immediately, even at the risk of missing a winner. Stay within your trade plan. Stay disciplined. Today is a much anticipated FOMC day, so will at least come back for that expected volatility and monitor possible trade model setups.
PM Addendum:
The best trade for the PM was the retest of the LOD, pre-FOMC. My excuse for not being in that was absence from the screen, but would have to admit that I would have taken the profits for that entry, even a runner, before the news release, but not because my management called for it.... Shorts at the HOD post news were well within structure, but the 1st entry just too soon for the volatility needed to complete a short term high. The retest was also a trade model entry, and so am glad to have traded within the plan during such volatility. The Trade Models remain the same, regardless of volatility, but entries are far more challenging. Tomorrow, Philly Fed will also provide possible pre-news setups, and being that those outcomes far less volatile than FOMC, is easier to overcome mental blocks of holding a potential runner into the news release itself. Stay focused.....
Tues Sep 17 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
20130917
Short 3 TF 1055.0, 1056.1, 1056.1, -1.4, -0.3, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1696.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1056.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1056.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1057.8, 1057.6, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1057.6, 1057.7, -0.3, -0.4
PM Trades:
Short 2 TF 1060.8, 1060.5, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1061.1, 1061.1, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES -0
Total TF -4.2
Yesterday Persistent Trend Day down offered sufficient swings extremes to play in both directions. Today, all pullbacks were shallow in a Persistent Trend Day morning. The last set of shorts eventually did produce a payoff but I lost patience as my loss limit approached. Some days better for trading than others. The NQ could have offered at least one bull breakout play to capture a piece of the early going, and I must be willing to include and act on the more volatile NQ for such setups as it can sometimes be the only way to jump aboard a vertical market and still remain within the Trade Plan. Action item: review and resolve.
Mon Sep 16 Trades & Journal
20130916
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Long 2 NQ 3189.0, 3187.25, -0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1057.4, 1057.5, -0. -0
Short 3 TF 1057.6, 1058.0, 1057.8, -1.0, +0.5, +0.4
Short 3 TF 1059.4, 1059.3, 1059.4, +0.7, +1.1, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1056.6, 1056.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1055.8, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1055.0, 1054.9, +1.0, +0.5
PM Trades:
Long 2 YM 15416, 15414, +10, +5
Total YM +15
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.4
Sometimes prices open at such extremes that you can just smell a gap close coming. But once you introduce intuition into your Trade Plan, it starts leaking in at other occasions less convincing. Intuition has no qualifiers. It always feels like the right direction. Today, had no short signal at the opening, despite the strong odor in the extreme price highs, but a good bounce midway down provided one. Thereafter, the Plan spotted the lows quite well in the NQ and the TF, although the TF came a bit shy of the more ideal entry level, and so had to to scramble. Also backed out of two long entries today, when the structure failed to hold the right plan model, and was rewarded by getting out about b/e on those. It's important not to talk yourself into holding a position when the pattern and price described by the model deteriorate. No trade decision is ever 'General Custer". You take trade entries for a specific set of conditions, and even if price is holding, you should exit that trade quickly if the reason you entered the trade can no longer be seen. Stay disciplined.
Fri Sep 13 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
20130913
Short 2 NQ 3174.0, 3174.0, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 YM 15277, 15300, -4, -1
Short 1 TF 1048.2, +1.1
Long 2 YM 15279, 15278, +1, -4
Long 1 YM 15263, +15
Total YM +7
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +1.0
Guess I was reacting still to the need to post a profitable week, but in truth the reason for the 1 lot trade size today was more a quickness in the turns. Since I usually try to get a 2nd or 3rd contract as some kind of base builds, I can miss out of those additional positions if price takes off immediately from ID'd support/resistance. But at least all five days this week profitable, and that's important coming off a losing week last week. Consistency is more important than missed opportunities. Don't play catch-up. Find the consistency you lost, and you will catch up with all your losses. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Sep 12 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
20130912
Long 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.4, +0.7, +1.2
Long 1 ES 1685.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.4, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 YM 15334, 15334, -2, -1
Short 2 NQ 3182.75, 3182.75, +2.0, +3.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 10551.1, 1051.2, -0.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.3, -0.2, -0.3
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -3
Total TF +0.0
Diverging leadership again today between the YM and the TF. Yesterday, YM won out handily, but today, TF not so willing. PM whipsaws stopped out two trend entry signals in both directions, but both trades were within the Plan models, arriving near the Transition Time. Sometimes, just walking away is better than giving up small gains for reappearing opportunities. And even a small winning week after a losing one helps to get back in sync. Stay disciplined.
Wed Sep 11 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
20130911
Short 2 YM 115218, 15221, -4, +7
Long 2 TF 1051.2, 1051.2, +0.5, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1053.3, 1053.4, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +3
Total TF +3.1
After reaching this minimum profit level, balked at buying an ES long signal at the 10:30am Trend Check. Could have taken that with minimum risk, but in fact, there was a critical momentum component missing. Also ducked at least one short scalp trade opp in the TF after reaching this level. But the important thing is getting one's consistency back. That consists of posting profits nearly every day. And after a losing week, it is so very important to come back with a winning week, even if it was done with limited risks. Two losing weeks in a row can be so dibiliating mentally, and mental factors, notwithstanding the goal to trade indifferently to emotions, can nonetheless have such an overriding effect on all your trading efforts. Establish consistency. Trade the Plan. Be willing to quit after reaching a profit goal. It's far more important to finish the day having rung decent profits up on the cash register than worry about any missed trade opportunities, when the goal is so clearly a return-to-consistency.
Tues Sep 10 Trades and Journal
Trade Summary
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
20130910
Short 3 TF 1050.1, 1049.9, 1051.1, -1.5, -1.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.1, 1051.9, 1051.9, +1.0, +1.2, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1051.6, +1.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1052.3, 1052.1, 1052.2, -0.6, -0.7, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1052.5, 1052.5, 1052.5, +0.5, +1.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1051.7, 1052.0, -0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1051.8, 1052.1, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1052.4, 1052.5, +0.5, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1053.1, 1053.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1052.9, 1052.8, +2.0, +0.5
Short 3 TF 1050.4, 1050.3, 1050.2, -0.4 +0.5, +0.5
Total TF +2.3
Hard fought battles today at the potential turns, with a very choppy first trend up, in what should have been a Test-n-Reject pattern in the the Day Model sequence cycle. You have to work with what's offered. And sometimes trading more like boxing, where a punch from your opponent leaves him open to a re entry signal and an opportunity to turn the tide. Such it was today. When things get difficult, stay focused on the signals, because in choppy, whippy action those signals can follow one on top of the other. Be ready to take quick partial exits to pay for the trade, and take 2nd and/or 3rd units as the turn forms at better prices in order to take those quick exits. Then work the runner for a target support/resistance number. Then keep an eye on your maximum allowable trades. If things not going well, don't let emotions drive you to exceed those limits. Take a break, get away from screen. Action will improve on subsequent days, but you must keep your capital intact for better opportunities when they do arrive.
Mon Sep 9 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
20130909
Simulator Trades
Short 2 YM 14996, 14996, +7, -7
Short 3 TF 1035.8, 1036.3, 1036.2, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1037.1, 1037.1, 1037.3, +2.0, +0.7, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1036.1, 1035.9, +0.5, +0.4
Short 1 TF 1036.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.1, 1037.9, +0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1038.4, 1038.6, +0.5, +0.5,
Total YM -0
Total TF +4.6
PM Trades Cash Trades
Short 1 TF 1043.7, +0.9
Short 2 TF 1044.7, 1044.7, +0.4, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1045.2, 1045.3, 1045.4, -0.0, +0.4, +0.5
PM Total TF +1.7
All these trades were taken on the simulator this morning, as required by a trip wire in my Trade Plan. Last week a losing week, and although the 1st in a year, still doesn't change the Behavior Governor to quit trading real money and take a series of trades on the simulator. Is a bit humbling to do this, but have found over the years that P&L far more important than being right about the next set of trades. And missing a few profits is really not the point for the long term. What matters in the long term is consistency. Although I posted those trades in this blog,
they will not appear in the Performance Archive, as I don't count those on the simulator towards those totals.
PM Addendum Some ok signals at the 2:30 Transition Time, and again at the Cash Closing, both fit trade models but TF Persistent Trend Day action seems to have denied any real correction at the short entry points. At least these last trades were from outside the penalty box of the simulator and can claim a few dollars to pay the bills with today... Stay focused and stick to the Plan !!
Fri Sep 6 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
20130906
Long 2 TF 1022.8, 1021.6, -2.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1018.7, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1018.3, 1018.3, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1021.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1022.2, -0,5, -0,5
Short 2 TF 1025.7, 1025.7, -0,4 -0.4
Total TF -5.8
Made a number of mistakes today, and stepped outside my Trading Models at a time when I probably should only have watching anyway. One support level after another gave way, and once the sharp V-Bottom was in, I ignored the bullish momentum readings trying to short as price met resistance levels on the way back up. They held no better than did the support levels on the way down. An adherence to the rules of the TTI momentum indicator would have kept me out of the short attempts altogether, except for maybe the small losses taken for the final trades. With only one profitable day in 4 this week, have to post a losing week for the first time in a year. A Behavior Governor in my Trade Plan requires that I begin Monday with trades outside my cash account on the simulator, until I am back in sync. Wishing all a good weekend. Will lick my wounds, and look forward to getting back next week!
Thurs Sep 5 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
20130905
Short 3 TF 1029.3, 1029.3, 1029.2 +0.5, +0.5 +1.6
PM trades
Short 1 TF 1029.9, +1.2
Total TF +3.8
As yesterday's losses were under a 3 pt loss quota, and Tuesday morning's losses were trimmed by PM trades, ...and I because forgot this morning... I did not instigate my 'go to simulator' rule, which triggers after 2 losing days in a row. But I did proceed with caution and was careful only to wait til both price and structure aligned for a short today as the Test n Reject pattern of the early going set in. A breakdown trade in the YM would have added to profits, but I balked. At least I put myself back on track a bit with today's trade decisions, having done so well in August where the trading is usually poor, didn't want to start off in Sept digging a hole. One day at a time....
Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum:
The 2:30 Transition Time offered another short opp for a 1-lot trade, and added a bit to the day's modest P&L. Is important to establish series of winning days, and especially important to end a day after 2 losing days prior back in the black. Like weekend golfers, the temptation is to focus more on the big drives rather than the short game or the total score. But short term gratification almost always is paid for by a suffering outcome. Stick with your Trade Plan. Limit your trades and monitor your status for the week when things not going so well. The best way to dig yourself out of a hole is not to get in one in the first place.
Wed Sep 4 Trades & Summary
Trade Summary
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
20130904
Short 2 YM 14837, 14836, -7, -0
Short 1 YM 14850, -5
Short 2 TF 1019.5, 1019.4, , -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 14863, 14862, 14870, -0, -5, -5
Short 2 TF 1020.7, 1020.7, +0.5, -0.3
Short 2 YM 14871, 14870, -5, -6
Short 4 TF 1021.0, 1021.1, 1021.2, 1021.0, +0.7, -0.2, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1022.5, 1022.2, +0.5, -0.7
Short 3 YM 14888, 14886, 14887, -6, -0, -7
Short 2 TF 1023.6, 1023.7, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -46
Total TF -0.3
Although we had a good support number at the very low of the day in some initial selling, the signal was incomplete and the benefits to sticking to the Trade Plan models far outweighs the occasionally lucky hit of trading from just numbers by themselves. Today's action straight up throughout the 1st Frame, and pullbacks for the shorts where
structure and price aligned were extremely shallow. ....these are always the harder markets to trade. Although the losses were small these past 2 days, that's still 2 losing days in a row for me, and in my Trade Plan, that means
I start tomorrow off on the trade simulator. The point of such strict money management rules is to keep from digging deep into a negative hole for the week. If simulated profits remain unattainable from here, then a big draw-down is avoided. Money management is far more important than being right, and a consistent methodology should get back on track in time to recapture losses fairly quickly, even if a few good trades are missed while on the simulator. Stay disciplined. Have a Plan and stick to it.
Tues Sep 3 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
20130903
Long 3 TF 1027.1, 1026.7, 1026.1, -0.0, +0,5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1025.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1024.6, 1024.3, -0.7, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1021.0, 1019.8, 1019.0, 1018.9, -2.5, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1014.8, 1014.8, +0.7, +1.5
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1007.4, +0.8,
Long 1 TF 1007.1, +1.1
Total TF -3.6
Not a pretty beginning to the month. Biggest failing today was in stretching out a stp loss, and adding to it outside my money management rules. That would have reduced my losses by nearly 3 pts on the day, but irregardless, it would have been a losing day for me. I did stick to the mm requirement to only take simulator trades after those initial set of losses, until I had posted 2 of 3 trades as winners on the simulator. That allowed me to come back with that last trade in real money for a decent profit, albeit only a dent into my day's losses. I also balked at a bear inflection breakdown play in the TF, but would have had to survive a big whipsaw before enjoying the profits of the mornings big plunge down. And even if partial exits there, would have been stp'd out no better than breakeven. I'll study it all again for awhile this afternoon, to see if anything more constructive should be added to the journal. In general, losing days are the best for education. Winning days have little to teach you besides reinforcement in your trade plan. Control the number and depth of losing days, and winning days can shine.
PM Addendum:
Good signal at the Transition Time for a sharp short covering rally. Lost faith early with it, and had no real runner. This is what you get mentally when playing catch up. You don't want to add to a day already in the red, so when profits do appear, you tend to exit too soon. Is not something I've even attempted to master, that is putting the days losses totally behind when some minimum profits appear. Tomorrow is another day....
Fr Aug 30 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20130830
Short 2 TF 1023.2, 1032.1, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3087.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 3080.5, -0
Long 2 TF 1018.6, 1018.6, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1018.1, 1018.3, 1018.1, 1018.5, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3071.0, 3071.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +11
Total TF +2.9
Monthly Totals Aug 2013
Total ES +0.25
Total YM +24
Total NQ +36.5
Total TF +54.7
I let the whippy action caution me out of an inflection breakdown call in the TF today, even after the pre-break setup gel'd nicely. No excuse. Just too cautious. The whipsaws from failed breakout plays can leave lasting stings, and mine still linger from previous failed breakouts. But need to focus on the setups better, and reduce the decision down to precise filters. When this..then that. No thinking allowed. Thinking is for after "those machines turned off" as Harvey Duke would have said (Trading Places fame). Trading is all about following rules, and keeping to the discipline of the Trade Plan. Wishing a great Labor Day weekend to all.... cya next week.
20130830
Short 2 TF 1023.2, 1032.1, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3087.75, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 3080.5, -0
Long 2 TF 1018.6, 1018.6, -0.5, -0.5
Long 4 TF 1018.1, 1018.3, 1018.1, 1018.5, +0.5, -0.5, +1.2, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3071.0, 3071.0, +2.0, +4.0
Total NQ +11
Total TF +2.9
Monthly Totals Aug 2013
Total ES +0.25
Total YM +24
Total NQ +36.5
Total TF +54.7
I let the whippy action caution me out of an inflection breakdown call in the TF today, even after the pre-break setup gel'd nicely. No excuse. Just too cautious. The whipsaws from failed breakout plays can leave lasting stings, and mine still linger from previous failed breakouts. But need to focus on the setups better, and reduce the decision down to precise filters. When this..then that. No thinking allowed. Thinking is for after "those machines turned off" as Harvey Duke would have said (Trading Places fame). Trading is all about following rules, and keeping to the discipline of the Trade Plan. Wishing a great Labor Day weekend to all.... cya next week.
Thurs Aug 29 Trade & Journal
Trade Summary
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
20130829
Short 2 YM 14823, 14823, +7, -7
Short 2 TF 1018.1, 1018.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1018.8, 1018.8, 1019.3, +0.7, -0.0, +1.0,
Short 2 YM 14838, 14838, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1021.0, 1021.0, -0.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1022.0, 1022.9, -1.4, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1023.1, 1023.1, 1023.0, +1.0, +0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1027.1, 1027.2, +1.0, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1027.3, 1027.4, -0.2, +0.5
PM trades:
Short 3 TF 1024.8, 1025.4, 1025.5, -0.0, +1.4, +0.5
Total YM -14
Total TF +2.4
Vertical markets the most difficult to trade. Very shallow pullbacks in the early drive, and was left with counter trend short signals at resistance and structural levels only. These barely paid their way to a net b/e state. I filter out from my Trade Plan breakouts to the initial trend direction on such days, as they can often come right back in your face. But a shallow pullback at the 10:30am Trend Check did hit an initial support number that would have positioned for the 2nd leg and a huge payoff. I balked and was left without an in-sync trade entry for the morning. As I post this journal, TF is making the best short signal so far today here at the Noon Hour, but I've closed the books and will just have to wait til tomorrow. Good trading. Stay disciplined.
PM Addendum
Although missed the Noon hour high and was shy of a fill on a trade call for retest of same, did find a short on retest later on well within Trade Plan. My entry a bit early, but the signal remained valid, so added to position and worked out of the less attractive fill. Have always found most the more accepted adages and trade axioms to be of little use, and in fact a deterrent to taking positions more precisely at the turns. "Never short a new High, sell a new Low" is one of those axioms. Tell that to a floor trader. That's where his profits come from. And "never add to a losing position" is also of little use if that position is still being built within the validity of the same signal setup. As long as the signal is still valid, a better fill price opportunity, is, well a better fill opportunity. And money management strategies like taking a 2nd and 3rd contract for a quick partial exit can help reduce or altogether eliminate the risk of the trade, as the position is reduced to a net break/even stp-loss strategy. For those attempting to trade futures without using auto OCO orders, this would all be impossible.
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