20200324
Long 1 YM 19620, -2
Long 1 YM 19580, -1
Long 1 NQ 7353.0, -2.25
Long 1 NQ 7350.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 7330.0, +19.75
Short 1 NQ 7394.0, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 7402.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 7410.0, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 7415.0, -2.5
Short 1 NQ 7415.5, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 7411.0, +12.25
Short 1 YM 19900, -1
Short 1 YM 19902, -2
Short 1 YM 19945, -8
Short 1 NQ 7450, -2.25
Short 1 NQ 7456.0, +31.75
Total YM -14
Total NQ +52.75
"What's the secret to catching those turns?", I'm often asked. The short answer: persistence. But unless the signals for such exhaustion moves were solidly in place for a Trade Entry Model from my daily Trade Plan, I would never tolerate such repeated stop-outs trying to establish these short runners. Your entry model must be solid in the first place, and be derived from multiple, disparate technical events arriving at the same time, or nearly at that the same time at the right corner of your video screen. I never look for price confirmation. Most trades depend on it. I find this to be a huge flaw in their thinking... Although it may be of use in positioning for swing trades with your underlying instrument being an equity or an index ETF, it can be severely counter-productive in the smaller frames of futures trading. Instead, I look for SIGNAL confirmation. ...and if that signal confirmation is there, I am willing to forego any number of stop-outs until the swing trend is truly in progress, and my profit meter is spinning its dial like a filling station pump on full throttle. These volatile, near-violent swing turns tend to sweep you into the chart patterns at breath-taking speeds these days. But the entries can be equally wicked to endure before hitting the right one. And if the action is in a stutter-step type mode, like it was today, then the sweep will often be just enough to warrant moving the stop-loss to near b/e quickly, and then tending to the re-entry process a bit deeper into the thrust. For these, I eyeball whole numbers and grid numbers in advance of their arrival, and try not to be too surprised that price eventually makes the grid element I thought unlikely only minutes before. "Expect the unexpected", said Heraclitus. Had he been a trader, he might have said, 'Bet on the unexpected', or even 'Don't bet until the unexpected finally rears its head'. Stay safe, stay home...
