20190621
Short 1 YM 25770, -8
Short 1 NQ 7754.0, -2.25
Long 2 RTY 1556.3, 1556.3, -.7, -.7
Long 2 RTY 1554.0, 1554.0, -1.5, -1.5
Long 4 RTY 1552.6, 1552.6, 1552.6, 1552.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 1564.75, +9.0
Short 1 RTY 1554.8, -0.7
Short 1 YM 26791, -4
Short 2 RTY 1556.8, 1556.8, +1.7, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 7767.5, -2.25
Short 2 RTY 1457.0, 1557.0, +1.5, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 7780.0, 7781.0, -2.25, -2.25
Short 1 YM 26850, -11
Short 1 RTY 1559.0, -1.5
Short 2 YM 26890, 26890, +40, +40
Short 2 RTY 1562.0, 1562.0, +2.0, +2.0
Total YM +57
Total NQ -0.0
Total RTY -2.8
A challenging day, to be sure. Early signs for this can usually be detected by noting the wide disparity
between indices. In this case, the RTY was deep into buy signals as the NQ and YM were offering early short signals. ...something we call a Screwball. But I was only able to enter one successful NQ short in the early going, while getting stop'd out repeatedly in RTY longs near the lows. Early RTY signals were piling up for the long side, but you can't just keep throwing money at a dead weight.
Slow build with small waves then developed across the board. Trends that begin with small waves often save their bigger waves for the end. This complicates fade entries, as the final thrusts are explosive. How to proceed? ...and "How do you accomplish these fills?", I am often asked. First, the Serial Sequent Fractal Algorithm identifies which waves to leave alone and which waves to go after. Then, since the final thrusts are producing such big spikes, you must combine exhaustion levels from the Pivot-Exhaustion Grid along with one of two tricks for order entries. With an Exhaustion Grid instead of a set of numbers from a Resistance tool like Fibonacci, you EXPECT the numbers to be broken. Those levels are running stops, and "most of the money to be made in the markets is made at the places where most traders are being stopped out and proven wrong. That's the key reason I abandoned support / resistance tools like Market Profile and Fibonacci awhile ago. No trader with any experience under his belt has failed to notice he is often stopped out just where he should have been entering in the first place. This is the nature of exhaustion. Flip the whole thing around, and reverse engineer your tools to identify those zones instead of price levels that are supposed to hold to support your underlying trend assumptions.
Throw in a couple of entry tricks like End-of-Bar and Whole Number Entries, and you have fills that are often at the extreme end of spike moves.
Today, however, I was forced to repeat those entry techniques on successive stop-outs until a final set of Serial Sequent signals put me in two winning positions. ...and typical of being down on the day before finding them, my profits barely got me back to break even after commissions.
...and the voice of my earliest mentor, long since past but not forgotten, fills my head after such strained efforts at finding the turns: "Second trends are where the surprises hide." I pretend to have a more technically sophisticated name to his simple, whimsical observation, which I steal from the Elliott Wave traders, rebranding it's use under the borrowed title 'The Rule of Alternation'.
...and a pleasant weekend to all...
