20160504
Short 1 NQ 4307.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1120.5, 1121.6, -0.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1122.6, 1122.4, +2, +1.4
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.8
Tues May 3 Trades and Journal
20160503
Short 1 TF 1126.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1121.9, 1121.7, -1.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.5, -1.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1118.9, 1118.6, 1118.6, +3.0, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.3
Always remember to 'pay for the trade' with partial exits. This is the problem with shying away from a 2nd or 3rd unit when the entry model warrants it. Trading with a 1-lot position denies you this important part of the management strategy. There are signals that arrive with a decent swing for 2nd contract profits, and there are those that signal an entry but only move far enough to get that initial profit for a partial exit. You can't assume that just because the entry signal appeared, the market will cooperate with a good swing. Sometimes, its no more than the proverbial dead cat bounce... but that bounce may be just the needed distance to pay for the trade.... Stay focused. Enter your trades based on models with a history of structural correlation. Then, manage your trades as if the position will NOT work. Too many traders do it the other way around, entering trades because they think the market is trying to move in one direction or the other, then manage the trade as if it MUST work. This produces a day with too often with more losses than gains.
Short 1 TF 1126.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1121.9, 1121.7, -1.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1119.6, 1119.5, -1.4, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1118.9, 1118.6, 1118.6, +3.0, +0.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.3
Always remember to 'pay for the trade' with partial exits. This is the problem with shying away from a 2nd or 3rd unit when the entry model warrants it. Trading with a 1-lot position denies you this important part of the management strategy. There are signals that arrive with a decent swing for 2nd contract profits, and there are those that signal an entry but only move far enough to get that initial profit for a partial exit. You can't assume that just because the entry signal appeared, the market will cooperate with a good swing. Sometimes, its no more than the proverbial dead cat bounce... but that bounce may be just the needed distance to pay for the trade.... Stay focused. Enter your trades based on models with a history of structural correlation. Then, manage your trades as if the position will NOT work. Too many traders do it the other way around, entering trades because they think the market is trying to move in one direction or the other, then manage the trade as if it MUST work. This produces a day with too often with more losses than gains.
Mon May 2 Trade Summary
20160502
Long 1 TF 1126.8, +2.7
Short 2 NQ 43420, 4341.0, +8.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1125.4, +1.5
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.2
Long 1 TF 1126.8, +2.7
Short 2 NQ 43420, 4341.0, +8.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1125.4, +1.5
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +4.2
Fri Apr 29 Trades & Journal
20160429
Long 1 TF 1134.6, -1.4
Long 2 YM 17677, 17688, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, 1131.8, +1.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1127.2, 1126.2, 1126.4, +1.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1131.5, +1.0
Total YM -20
Total TF +2.8
The big sell signals in Serial Sequent from the daily frame in ES, NQ and TF these past few days had their follow through this morning. And all I could do was complain yesterday about the action of yesterdays' 1st Frame dull bull grind...that today's return to impulse swing left me mentally unprepared for it, and somewhat trained to expect the same as yesterday. That's what the market does. It conditions you to a set of expectations in its action and direction, and arrives on the precipice of its true intentions in the disguise of those expectations. The the market tends to fulfill in opposites. That's why the Elliott Wavers call it the Rule of Alternation. It plays out by impulsive action going into choppy consolidation, in 1st Frame going into 2nd, in the George Taylor Three Day Cycle, in the rotation of Persistent Trend to Test-n-Reject models, in the April bull grind of recent days setting up for the 'sell May, and go away' seasonal. Look for opposites... or in the words of Heraclitus "Unless you expect the unexpected, you cannot find Truth, so hard it is to find and grasp."
Long 1 TF 1134.6, -1.4
Long 2 YM 17677, 17688, -10, -10
Long 2 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1131.8, 1131.8, 1131.8, +1.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1127.2, 1126.2, 1126.4, +1.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1131.5, +1.0
Total YM -20
Total TF +2.8
The big sell signals in Serial Sequent from the daily frame in ES, NQ and TF these past few days had their follow through this morning. And all I could do was complain yesterday about the action of yesterdays' 1st Frame dull bull grind...that today's return to impulse swing left me mentally unprepared for it, and somewhat trained to expect the same as yesterday. That's what the market does. It conditions you to a set of expectations in its action and direction, and arrives on the precipice of its true intentions in the disguise of those expectations. The the market tends to fulfill in opposites. That's why the Elliott Wavers call it the Rule of Alternation. It plays out by impulsive action going into choppy consolidation, in 1st Frame going into 2nd, in the George Taylor Three Day Cycle, in the rotation of Persistent Trend to Test-n-Reject models, in the April bull grind of recent days setting up for the 'sell May, and go away' seasonal. Look for opposites... or in the words of Heraclitus "Unless you expect the unexpected, you cannot find Truth, so hard it is to find and grasp."
Thurs Apr 28 Trade Summary
20160428
Short 3 TF 1148.0, 1149.1, 1148.6, -0.0, +1.0, -1.6
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1150.3, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 4434.5, 4436.0, 4436.0, -3.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.7, -0.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1152.8, 1152.8, +0.3, -0.5
Short 1 Tf 1152.8, -0.5
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +1.1
Short 3 TF 1148.0, 1149.1, 1148.6, -0.0, +1.0, -1.6
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1150.3, 1149.9, +1.0, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 4434.5, 4436.0, 4436.0, -3.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.7, -0.6, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1152.8, 1152.8, +0.3, -0.5
Short 1 Tf 1152.8, -0.5
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +1.1
Tues Apr 26 Trade Summary
20160426
Short 2 NQ 4481.5, 4480.5, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1142.9, 1142.7, -0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.5, +2.3, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1140.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1138.0, 1137.9, 1137.0, 1136.9, -0.0, +0.5, +1.9, +0.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.8
Short 2 NQ 4481.5, 4480.5, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1142.9, 1142.7, -0.9, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.5, +2.3, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1140.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1138.0, 1137.9, 1137.0, 1136.9, -0.0, +0.5, +1.9, +0.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.8
Mon Apr 25 Trade Summary
20160425
Short 1 TF 1142.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1136.9, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4453.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.8, 1134.7, -0.1, +0.7
Short 1 YM 17821, +5
Short 1 TF 1136.6, +1.2
Total YM +5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.3
Short 1 TF 1142.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1136.9, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4453.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.8, 1134.7, -0.1, +0.7
Short 1 YM 17821, +5
Short 1 TF 1136.6, +1.2
Total YM +5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.3
Fri Apr 22 Trade Summary
20160422
Short 2 YM 17946, 17945, +20, +10
Short 3 TF 1140.4, 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.0, +1.0, +2.0,
Short 1 TF 1142.3, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +4.0
Short 2 YM 17946, 17945, +20, +10
Short 3 TF 1140.4, 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.0, +1.0, +2.0,
Short 1 TF 1142.3, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +4.0
Thur Apr 21 Trades & Journal
20160421
Short 1 TF 1139.4, -1.4
Short 1 ES 2096.75, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1140.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1141.5, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4546.25, -2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF -1.8
Traders tend to look for trades when it's convenient to arrive at work that day. "I'll just jump in and find a few trades. But the market is not always so accommodating. Today, unable to make the opening bell, I stepped in at the 2nd Trend and got stop'd out repeatedly trying to fade it. The trades normally taken had already appeared in the first hour, but I felt I 'needed' to trade, and misapplied one method in the wrong place. ...I got what I deserved. If you can't make to work on time for the opening bell, consider just watching for awhile, and take stock of what is really occurring in the bigger picture. Because from down in the weeds of a fractal algorithm, incomplete trade signals can be very deceiving.
Short 1 TF 1139.4, -1.4
Short 1 ES 2096.75, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1140.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1141.5, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4546.25, -2.0
Total ES +2.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF -1.8
Traders tend to look for trades when it's convenient to arrive at work that day. "I'll just jump in and find a few trades. But the market is not always so accommodating. Today, unable to make the opening bell, I stepped in at the 2nd Trend and got stop'd out repeatedly trying to fade it. The trades normally taken had already appeared in the first hour, but I felt I 'needed' to trade, and misapplied one method in the wrong place. ...I got what I deserved. If you can't make to work on time for the opening bell, consider just watching for awhile, and take stock of what is really occurring in the bigger picture. Because from down in the weeds of a fractal algorithm, incomplete trade signals can be very deceiving.
Wed Apr 20 Trade Summary
20160420
Long 1 NQ 4517.0, +7.5
Short 1 TF 1137.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1139.0, 1138.7, 1138.7, +1.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1137.4, 1137.7, +0.7, -1.0
Short 2 YM 17988, 17989, +13, +7
Long 1 YM 17974, -7
Long 2 YM 1796, 1797, +7, +10
Short 1 YM 17977, +20
Long 2 NQ 4522.5, 4522.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1135.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1136.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1138.1, -0.5
Total YM +30
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4517.0, +7.5
Short 1 TF 1137.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1139.0, 1138.7, 1138.7, +1.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1137.4, 1137.7, +0.7, -1.0
Short 2 YM 17988, 17989, +13, +7
Long 1 YM 17974, -7
Long 2 YM 1796, 1797, +7, +10
Short 1 YM 17977, +20
Long 2 NQ 4522.5, 4522.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1135.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1136.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1138.1, -0.5
Total YM +30
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF -1.0
Tues Apr 19 Trade Summary
20160419
Short 1 YM 17954, -11
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4540.75, 4540.5, +5.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, +0.5, -0.8
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1142.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1143.6, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4546.25, 4546.25, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, +2.0, +1.5
Total YM -11
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +2.2
Short 1 YM 17954, -11
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4540.75, 4540.5, +5.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, +0.5, -0.8
Long 1 NQ 4543.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1142.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1143.6, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4546.25, 4546.25, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, +2.0, +1.5
Total YM -11
Total NQ +14.0
Total TF +2.2
Mon Apr 18 Trade Summary
20160418
Short 2 YM 17808, 17806, +7, -3
Long 1 NQ 4524.75, +7.0
Short 1 TF 1125.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4532.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4535.75, 4546.0, -2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1129.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4548.25, 4548.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1130.8, 1130.2, -1.2, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 4554.5, 4554.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1132.6, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 4559.0, 4559.0, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1131.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1130.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1132.3, +0.8
Total YM +4
Total NQ +6.5
Total +3.4
Short 2 YM 17808, 17806, +7, -3
Long 1 NQ 4524.75, +7.0
Short 1 TF 1125.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4532.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4535.75, 4546.0, -2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1129.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4548.25, 4548.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1130.8, 1130.2, -1.2, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 4554.5, 4554.5, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1132.6, +1.7
Short 2 NQ 4559.0, 4559.0, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1131.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1130.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1132.3, +0.8
Total YM +4
Total NQ +6.5
Total +3.4
Fri Apr 15 Trades and Journal
20160415
Long 1 TF 1122.4, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1123.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4546.0, 4546.26, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 1125.5, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1127.6, -0.3
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +0.6
Some days are better for trading than others.....
Long 1 TF 1122.4, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1123.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4546.0, 4546.26, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 1125.5, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1127.6, -0.3
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +0.6
Some days are better for trading than others.....
Thur Apr 14 Trade Summary
20160414
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1122.5, 1122.2, +1.3, +1.6
Total TF +3.9
Long 2 TF 1128.8, 1128.8, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1125.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1122.5, 1122.2, +1.3, +1.6
Total TF +3.9
Wed Apr 13 Trade Summary
20160413
Short 1 NQ 4518.75, -2.5
Long 1 TF 1110.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1109.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1112.4, 1112.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1112.7, 1112.9, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1113.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, +0.5, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.6, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1113.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1114.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1114.3, 1114.7, -0.0, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.8, 1119.5, +0.7, -0.8, -1.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1121.0, 1121.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1122.1, 1122.5, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +3.6
Short 1 NQ 4518.75, -2.5
Long 1 TF 1110.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1109.5, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1112.4, 1112.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1112.7, 1112.9, -0.7, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1113.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1113.5, 1113.5, +0.5, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1114.4, 1114.6, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1113.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1113.5, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1114.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1114.3, 1114.7, -0.0, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.8, 1119.5, +0.7, -0.8, -1.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1121.0, 1121.0, +0.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1122.1, 1122.5, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +3.6
Tues Apr 12 Trades & Journal
20160412
Short 1 YM 17522, +17
Short 1 TF 1092.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1093.8, 1093.8, +1.0, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1091.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.5, -0.0, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1090.3, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17477, 17477, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1086.8, 1087.1, +1.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1101.2, +1.0
Total YM +3
Total TF +5.4
Third day in row where breakouts worked well and were the preferred call to fades.
Friday and Monday were bear breakouts in 2nd trend Inflection Levels, after explosive 1st trends that stretched momentum to limits. ....and me stp'd out badly in Friday's 1st trend trying to find the turn to begin it all. But the 2nd trend breakdowns had very readable inflection levels, and gave a clinic on taking breakouts AFTER the turn was in, instead of fighting the frothing momentum trying to find the turn. So if you want to study breakouts, these last 3 days were good chapters on that subject. Today, the predominant breakout play did not appear at an inflection level, but was more classic Pre-breakout Pause Pattern instead, old school. But whether breakout plays arrive with Inflection Levels or classic patterns, the most important ingredient is the same: a WorkDone technical event accomplished as background to the ensuing 2nd trend trend explosion. These type of technical events base their reversals on exhaustion, a feat that tends to clear the market of all traders holding positions in the opposite direction. Cleaned out, and now attracted to participating in the trend that took them out, they switch hats only to be caught again, fighting the very direction they had intended to partake in the first place. Such is the perversity of the market. But since it's classic and textbook, why not incorporate it in a Trade Plan. The most desirable positions are those that are taken where everyone else is being stp'd out and proven wrong, thus born is the 1st Corollary to the Douglas Premise. Those market psychological concepts are available in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swings Trades, but in more exhaustive detail in the upcoming book Self Recognition A treatise on mental habit patterns, and a guide to train for and navigate the psychological landscape faced by the active market trader.
Short 1 YM 17522, +17
Short 1 TF 1092.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1093.8, 1093.8, +1.0, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1091.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.5, -0.0, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1090.3, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1088.7, 1088.7, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17477, 17477, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1086.8, 1087.1, +1.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1101.2, +1.0
Total YM +3
Total TF +5.4
Third day in row where breakouts worked well and were the preferred call to fades.
Friday and Monday were bear breakouts in 2nd trend Inflection Levels, after explosive 1st trends that stretched momentum to limits. ....and me stp'd out badly in Friday's 1st trend trying to find the turn to begin it all. But the 2nd trend breakdowns had very readable inflection levels, and gave a clinic on taking breakouts AFTER the turn was in, instead of fighting the frothing momentum trying to find the turn. So if you want to study breakouts, these last 3 days were good chapters on that subject. Today, the predominant breakout play did not appear at an inflection level, but was more classic Pre-breakout Pause Pattern instead, old school. But whether breakout plays arrive with Inflection Levels or classic patterns, the most important ingredient is the same: a WorkDone technical event accomplished as background to the ensuing 2nd trend trend explosion. These type of technical events base their reversals on exhaustion, a feat that tends to clear the market of all traders holding positions in the opposite direction. Cleaned out, and now attracted to participating in the trend that took them out, they switch hats only to be caught again, fighting the very direction they had intended to partake in the first place. Such is the perversity of the market. But since it's classic and textbook, why not incorporate it in a Trade Plan. The most desirable positions are those that are taken where everyone else is being stp'd out and proven wrong, thus born is the 1st Corollary to the Douglas Premise. Those market psychological concepts are available in the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swings Trades, but in more exhaustive detail in the upcoming book Self Recognition A treatise on mental habit patterns, and a guide to train for and navigate the psychological landscape faced by the active market trader.
Mon Apr 11 Trades & Journal
20160411
Long 1 NQ 4080.75, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1098.8, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1102.1, 1102.1, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1104.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.8, +1.4
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.3
After a losing day, especially after a big stinker like Friday's, there's a temptation to try and recover losses ...to get back what was taken from you. This usually just leads to further mistakes. Consistency is the key, so the day after a loss is an important day to reach a daily goal and quit, just to try and reestablish that consistency. Friday was also a good lesson in what not to do when you have assumed you are right...do not extend stp-losses trying to survive when price moves outside the model price and structure zone. Just let it go. There will be more signals ahead. Also, Friday's big momentum stretch Test-n-Reject model left me trained for today's action, and so I made sure I wasn't suffering any early short positions while that momentum stretch took its course. Stay focused. Stay within Plan.
Long 1 NQ 4080.75, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1098.8, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1102.1, 1102.1, +0.5, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1104.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1100.8, +1.4
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.3
After a losing day, especially after a big stinker like Friday's, there's a temptation to try and recover losses ...to get back what was taken from you. This usually just leads to further mistakes. Consistency is the key, so the day after a loss is an important day to reach a daily goal and quit, just to try and reestablish that consistency. Friday was also a good lesson in what not to do when you have assumed you are right...do not extend stp-losses trying to survive when price moves outside the model price and structure zone. Just let it go. There will be more signals ahead. Also, Friday's big momentum stretch Test-n-Reject model left me trained for today's action, and so I made sure I wasn't suffering any early short positions while that momentum stretch took its course. Stay focused. Stay within Plan.
Fri Apr 8 Trades & Journal
20160408
Long 2 NQ 4490.75, 4491.25. +7.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -1.5, -1.6
Short 3 TF 1101.5, 1101.5, 1102.2, -1.4, -1.4, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1102.05, 1102.5, 1102.5, 1102.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.4
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -10.5
The personality of a days trend formation, sometimes referred to as 'price action', can be very alluring... and very deceptive. What the market looks like it's doing, it often is not. And in the case of the TF contract, the structure was not that unusual, but the stretched out volatility was above normal... or so at least I've tried to comfort myself with all morning, having had the biggest losing day in some months. Mistakes are the most important things you can learn from in trading. In the early stages of one's career, your mistakes and be so comprehensive and overlapping as to crowd out the proper identification of one from the other. At later stages of trading experience, one should be able to focus on just one or two critical errors in judgement that correctly identify the cause of a day's losses. and set a course of action to work on in the mental game. For today's needed clarity, I'm going to have to let it all just sit for a day or two, as I try to get my head around the best lessons today's mistakes have to offer me for trading in the days ahead. In a volatile market, you read of the entry model may, in fact, be correct, but a too-early entry can push the limits of your risk tolerance...and also your ego and confidence about the certainty of the entry ...a good weekend to all..
Long 2 NQ 4490.75, 4491.25. +7.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1098.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1099.8, 1099.9, -1.5, -1.6
Short 3 TF 1101.5, 1101.5, 1102.2, -1.4, -1.4, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1102.05, 1102.5, 1102.5, 1102.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.4
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -10.5
The personality of a days trend formation, sometimes referred to as 'price action', can be very alluring... and very deceptive. What the market looks like it's doing, it often is not. And in the case of the TF contract, the structure was not that unusual, but the stretched out volatility was above normal... or so at least I've tried to comfort myself with all morning, having had the biggest losing day in some months. Mistakes are the most important things you can learn from in trading. In the early stages of one's career, your mistakes and be so comprehensive and overlapping as to crowd out the proper identification of one from the other. At later stages of trading experience, one should be able to focus on just one or two critical errors in judgement that correctly identify the cause of a day's losses. and set a course of action to work on in the mental game. For today's needed clarity, I'm going to have to let it all just sit for a day or two, as I try to get my head around the best lessons today's mistakes have to offer me for trading in the days ahead. In a volatile market, you read of the entry model may, in fact, be correct, but a too-early entry can push the limits of your risk tolerance...and also your ego and confidence about the certainty of the entry ...a good weekend to all..
Thur Apr 7 Trades & Journal
20160407
Short 3 TF 1101.1, 1101.1, 1101.1, +1.0, +1.1, +1.2
Total TF +3.3
Entry Modeling is a science, trade exiting is an art. But that doesn't mean it is totally bereft of management rules. Today, I exited the last of a 3 contract position without allowing it to run, simply because it had gone against me about a point, and it had reached an initial support zone...which melted away as quickly as butter on hot toast. I incorrectly assumed there'd be a retest opportunity on which to short again, and on the way down, had no bounce short entry models to get back in with. Beware of your assumptions. They are seldom a good guide to trading, and in fact, are more often a signpost of self deception and impending surprise.
Short 3 TF 1101.1, 1101.1, 1101.1, +1.0, +1.1, +1.2
Total TF +3.3
Entry Modeling is a science, trade exiting is an art. But that doesn't mean it is totally bereft of management rules. Today, I exited the last of a 3 contract position without allowing it to run, simply because it had gone against me about a point, and it had reached an initial support zone...which melted away as quickly as butter on hot toast. I incorrectly assumed there'd be a retest opportunity on which to short again, and on the way down, had no bounce short entry models to get back in with. Beware of your assumptions. They are seldom a good guide to trading, and in fact, are more often a signpost of self deception and impending surprise.
Wed Apr 6 Trade Summary
20160406
Long 2 TF 1088.9, 1088.9, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 YM 17474, +20
Short 1 TF 1094.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1090.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1090.3, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +7.6
Long 2 TF 1088.9, 1088.9, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 YM 17474, +20
Short 1 TF 1094.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1090.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1090.3, +2.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +7.6
Tues Apr 5 Trade Summary
20160405
Long 2 NQ 4460.0, 4460.75, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1097.1, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1099.4, 1099.0, 1099.4, +1.0, -0.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.7, +0.7, +1.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +1.1
Long 2 NQ 4460.0, 4460.75, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1097.1, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1099.4, 1099.0, 1099.4, +1.0, -0.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.7, +0.7, +1.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +1.1
Mon Apr 4 Trade Summary
20160404
Short 2 NQ 4519.5, 4520.5, +10.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1111.2, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4519.25, -2.0
Short 2 YM 17706, 17706, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 4522.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1112.9, 1112.3, +0.1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1115.3, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.3, -0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1107.6, 1107.4, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.8
Short 2 NQ 4519.5, 4520.5, +10.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1111.2, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4519.25, -2.0
Short 2 YM 17706, 17706, +7, -7
Short 1 NQ 4522.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1112.9, 1112.3, +0.1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1115.3, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1108.6, 1108.3, -0.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1107.6, 1107.4, +1.0, +0.7
Total YM -0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.8
Fri Apr 1 Trade Summary
20160401
Long 1 TF 1100.6, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4454.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1100.2, -1.4
Short 2 YM 17508, 17508, +7, +20
Short 1 NQ 4560.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1100.1, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1104.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1107.1, 1107.3, +0.5, +0.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +4.2
Long 1 TF 1100.6, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4454.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1100.2, -1.4
Short 2 YM 17508, 17508, +7, +20
Short 1 NQ 4560.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1100.1, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1104.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.5, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1107.1, 1107.3, +0.5, +0.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +4.2
Thur Mar 31 Trade Summary
20160331
Short 1 TF 1108.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1107.5, 1107.6, 1107.5, +1.0, +2.0, +0.5
Total TF +3.0
Short 1 TF 1108.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1107.5, 1107.6, 1107.5, +1.0, +2.0, +0.5
Total TF +3.0
Wed Mar 30 Trade Summary
20160330
Short 1 YM 17883, -0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 4507.75, 4508.50, +4.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1110.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1112.0, 1112.1, +3.0, +0.7
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.6
All the textbooks and talking head guru's say 'the trend is your friend'. But nothing is more detrimental to the trader than trend prejudice. A trader has to stick to technical models, and await them patiently to appear at the right edge of the video screen, often despite his trend opinion. This is just the opposite of tape reading, intuition, trading market action, etc. And to make it even more tempting to tape read, sometimes a trader's entry models don't actually reacyh fruition before the turn or the breakout takes place. ...and you're left on the sidelines muttering that misleading and defeatist remark "I knew that would happen...". This is just how traders lose money. They bring that 'I knew that would happen' attitude to the market at some other juncture or even on the following day...and have a losing day with it. Have a Trade Plan. Stick with it. You don't know what the market is going to do next. Wait for your opportunities to gel. Don't break your discipline and your good habits that are not producing well today to overcome the opportunities you are so apparently missing. Some days are better for trading than others.... Tomorrow is another day, but not if you've lost 2 days in a row, and you're now forced to trade on the simulator.....
Short 1 YM 17883, -0
Long 1 TF 1109.6, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1109.4, +1.1
Short 2 NQ 4507.75, 4508.50, +4.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1110.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1112.0, 1112.1, +3.0, +0.7
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +2.6
All the textbooks and talking head guru's say 'the trend is your friend'. But nothing is more detrimental to the trader than trend prejudice. A trader has to stick to technical models, and await them patiently to appear at the right edge of the video screen, often despite his trend opinion. This is just the opposite of tape reading, intuition, trading market action, etc. And to make it even more tempting to tape read, sometimes a trader's entry models don't actually reacyh fruition before the turn or the breakout takes place. ...and you're left on the sidelines muttering that misleading and defeatist remark "I knew that would happen...". This is just how traders lose money. They bring that 'I knew that would happen' attitude to the market at some other juncture or even on the following day...and have a losing day with it. Have a Trade Plan. Stick with it. You don't know what the market is going to do next. Wait for your opportunities to gel. Don't break your discipline and your good habits that are not producing well today to overcome the opportunities you are so apparently missing. Some days are better for trading than others.... Tomorrow is another day, but not if you've lost 2 days in a row, and you're now forced to trade on the simulator.....
Tues Mar 29 Trade Summary
20160329
Long 1 NQ, 4375.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 1075.9, -0.2,
Short 2 TF 1077.3, +.7, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1075.3, +1.4
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.0
Long 1 NQ, 4375.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 1075.9, -0.2,
Short 2 TF 1077.3, +.7, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1075.3, +1.4
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.0
Mon Mar 28 Trade Summary
20160328
Long 1 NQ 4367.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 8384.0, 8382.5, +8.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1072.6, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1073.4, +1.3
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1
Long 1 NQ 4367.5, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 8384.0, 8382.5, +8.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1072.6, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1073.4, +1.3
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1
Thurs Mar 24 Trades & Journal
20160324
Short 2 NQ 4382.5, 4382.5, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1064.4, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1064.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1065.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1066.9, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.8, +1.4, +0.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.3
2nd Trend's are where lie the surprises, especially on a day following a Persistent Trend Day Down in the typical Day Model rotation cycle. In fact, so much so a 2nd Trend can grind through short signsls on such a day that it can be fairly said that all 1st Trend fades are, in fact, in-trend entries rather than counter trend trades. Accordingly, keep a cool head when fading the 2nd Trend. Action will usually disguise the underlying and emerging true-trend, and thus trap tape readers and 'price-action' traders by lulling them towards the Song of the Sirens. This is how such swing reversals are fed. They climb on the backs of disbelieving shorts.
Short 2 NQ 4382.5, 4382.5, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1064.4, +2.2
Short 1 TF 1063.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1064.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1065.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1066.9, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1069.6, 1069.8, +1.4, +0.5
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +5.3
2nd Trend's are where lie the surprises, especially on a day following a Persistent Trend Day Down in the typical Day Model rotation cycle. In fact, so much so a 2nd Trend can grind through short signsls on such a day that it can be fairly said that all 1st Trend fades are, in fact, in-trend entries rather than counter trend trades. Accordingly, keep a cool head when fading the 2nd Trend. Action will usually disguise the underlying and emerging true-trend, and thus trap tape readers and 'price-action' traders by lulling them towards the Song of the Sirens. This is how such swing reversals are fed. They climb on the backs of disbelieving shorts.
Wed Mar 23 Trade Summary
20160323
Long 1 YM 17438, -10
Long 2 YM 17429, 17430, +15, +17
Long 2 TF 1082.0, 1082.3, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4415.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1077.7, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1077.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1077.1, +1.7
Total YM +22
Total NQ -0.75
Total TF +5.9
Long 1 YM 17438, -10
Long 2 YM 17429, 17430, +15, +17
Long 2 TF 1082.0, 1082.3, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4415.0, -0.75
Long 1 TF 1077.7, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1077.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1077.1, +1.7
Total YM +22
Total NQ -0.75
Total TF +5.9
Tues Mar 22 Trades & Journal
20160322
Long 3 TF 1184.9, 1185.0, 1184.1, +2.0, +0.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1187.2, 1188.0, -0.2, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1188.0, 1189.0, 1189.4, -2.1, -1.0, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1190.1, 1190.1, 1190.1, +1.5, +1.5, +1.8
Total TF +5.6
When the normally leading contract (usually the TF) becomes the laggard, having telegraphed the rest of the world that a bear day is upon us, its reluctant bull action after reversing to 2nd Trend becomes a Song of the Sirens. Of course I can short this, you say to yourself. Anybody can see that the TF is an anchor today and bound to go back down. But 2nd Trends are tricky, and therein can lie the surprises, as your hopes are dashed upon the rocks as the emerging laggard bull becomes the eager come-lately playing catch-up. Over confidence often comes from one's delusions regarding the ability to 'read' the market price action. But '....most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was really trying to go...' (The Douglas Premise). Remember that the minute structure, aka 'price action', is always subordinate to Day Model, and many a woodsman has been lost in the forest unable to see the forest for the trees. Pay attention to the concept of WorkDone in the 1st Trend. Once accomplished, the 2nd Trend can build into momentum late in its stages, often exceeding all expectations, with the sound of the impending rocks drowned out by the pretty Song of the Sirens...the ego that says 'I know which way the market is really trying to go...and I'm going to prove it....no matter how much it costs me...'.
Long 3 TF 1184.9, 1185.0, 1184.1, +2.0, +0.5, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1187.2, 1188.0, -0.2, +0.7
Short 3 TF 1188.0, 1189.0, 1189.4, -2.1, -1.0, -0.8
Short 3 TF 1190.1, 1190.1, 1190.1, +1.5, +1.5, +1.8
Total TF +5.6
When the normally leading contract (usually the TF) becomes the laggard, having telegraphed the rest of the world that a bear day is upon us, its reluctant bull action after reversing to 2nd Trend becomes a Song of the Sirens. Of course I can short this, you say to yourself. Anybody can see that the TF is an anchor today and bound to go back down. But 2nd Trends are tricky, and therein can lie the surprises, as your hopes are dashed upon the rocks as the emerging laggard bull becomes the eager come-lately playing catch-up. Over confidence often comes from one's delusions regarding the ability to 'read' the market price action. But '....most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was really trying to go...' (The Douglas Premise). Remember that the minute structure, aka 'price action', is always subordinate to Day Model, and many a woodsman has been lost in the forest unable to see the forest for the trees. Pay attention to the concept of WorkDone in the 1st Trend. Once accomplished, the 2nd Trend can build into momentum late in its stages, often exceeding all expectations, with the sound of the impending rocks drowned out by the pretty Song of the Sirens...the ego that says 'I know which way the market is really trying to go...and I'm going to prove it....no matter how much it costs me...'.
Mon Mar 21 Trade Summary
20160321
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.7
Long 1 YM 17460, +15
Long 1 TF 1191.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +5.2
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1198.5, +1.7
Long 1 YM 17460, +15
Long 1 TF 1191.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +5.2
Thur Mar 17 Trades & Journal
20160317
Long 1 TF 1163.0, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1165.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1165.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1167.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 4 TF 1169.8, 1170.0, 1170.8, 1171.5, -1.4, -1.8, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.3, +0.7, +2.0
Total +4.4
Nothing is worse than having executed the right trading habit the day before, and acknowledging it--then to commit a violation of that same principle the very next day. It's like reversing a lesson you thought you'd finally learned. But new habits are hard to form, and old ones not easily shaken. Today, that's exactly what I did. I let an entry model go by that would have put me in-trend, and participating in the eventual outcome, and then as if to punish myself--or get even with the market for punishing me--I faded a second trend as the momentum continued to demonstrate persistence. ...something I should know better by now than do...
Take a moment to reflect on the day's trades. Assess which were made within Trade Plan and best-habits, and which were not. Rehearse, rehearse, rehearse your behavior. ...and never relax the muscles of self discipline. It's like the paradox of golf. Focus your muscle memory on what it must do. Then relax so it can accomplish it.
Long 1 TF 1163.0, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1165.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1165.8, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1167.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 4 TF 1169.8, 1170.0, 1170.8, 1171.5, -1.4, -1.8, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.3, +0.7, +2.0
Total +4.4
Nothing is worse than having executed the right trading habit the day before, and acknowledging it--then to commit a violation of that same principle the very next day. It's like reversing a lesson you thought you'd finally learned. But new habits are hard to form, and old ones not easily shaken. Today, that's exactly what I did. I let an entry model go by that would have put me in-trend, and participating in the eventual outcome, and then as if to punish myself--or get even with the market for punishing me--I faded a second trend as the momentum continued to demonstrate persistence. ...something I should know better by now than do...
Take a moment to reflect on the day's trades. Assess which were made within Trade Plan and best-habits, and which were not. Rehearse, rehearse, rehearse your behavior. ...and never relax the muscles of self discipline. It's like the paradox of golf. Focus your muscle memory on what it must do. Then relax so it can accomplish it.
Wed Mar 16 Trades & Journal
20160316
Long 1 TF 1160.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1160.1, 1160.2, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1063.9, +1.0
Total TF +5.7
It's not that you can ever know that the pullback opportunities will be better than the fade opportunities as the trading day gets started. It's rather that the former present themselves with enough model clarity for you to recognize them, and that your head is sufficiently clear of trend prejudice to act on them immediately that makes a morning of trend swings profitable. Keep your head clear. Trade from the right edge of your video screen when it matches the Technical Event Concepts described in your Trade Plan on your desktop. Each the day the market is different. Like a population of finger prints, no two are ever quite alike. ...and yet, with the right set of Event Models in your Trade Plan, you'll trade the same thing day after day after day after day.... Be the Plan, not your prejudice.
Long 1 TF 1160.0, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1160.1, 1160.2, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1063.9, +1.0
Total TF +5.7
It's not that you can ever know that the pullback opportunities will be better than the fade opportunities as the trading day gets started. It's rather that the former present themselves with enough model clarity for you to recognize them, and that your head is sufficiently clear of trend prejudice to act on them immediately that makes a morning of trend swings profitable. Keep your head clear. Trade from the right edge of your video screen when it matches the Technical Event Concepts described in your Trade Plan on your desktop. Each the day the market is different. Like a population of finger prints, no two are ever quite alike. ...and yet, with the right set of Event Models in your Trade Plan, you'll trade the same thing day after day after day after day.... Be the Plan, not your prejudice.
Tues Mar 15 Trade Summary
20160315
Long 3 TF 1066.4, 1165.1, 1165.4, -1.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.2, 1164.3, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 TF 1164.6, +1.0
Total TF +4.5
Long 3 TF 1066.4, 1165.1, 1165.4, -1.4, +1.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.2, 1164.3, +1.0, +2.2
Long 1 TF 1164.6, +1.0
Total TF +4.5
Mon Mar 14 Trade Summary
20160314
Short 2 TF 1078.8, 1079.1, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1177.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1175.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1175.4, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1174.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1078.8, +1.3
Total TF +5.7
Short 2 TF 1078.8, 1079.1, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1177.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1175.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1175.4, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1174.9, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1078.8, +1.3
Total TF +5.7
Fri Mar 11 Trade Summary
20160311
Long 1 TF 1068.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4326.75, 4326.75, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4327.75, 4329.0, +6.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1070.0, 1070.0, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 4326.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.6, -0.0, +1.1
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1
Long 1 TF 1068.0, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4326.75, 4326.75, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4327.75, 4329.0, +6.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1070.0, 1070.0, +0.5, +2.2
Short 1 NQ 4326.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1072.0, 1072.6, -0.0, +1.1
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.1
Thur Mar 10 Trades & Journal
20160310
Short 1 NQ 4323.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.2, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4329.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1078.0, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4331.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1072.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1070.4, 1069.8, +1.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 4311.75, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4208.5, 4208.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4203.75. 4203.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4197.0, 4197.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.1, 1066.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1064.9, 1064.9, 1064.9, +3.0, +4.0, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 4185.5, 4185.5, +8.0, +8.0
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +10.5
Volatility can be your friend, but it can also kill you. Yesterday I found myself positioned for the mid morning collapse with shorts in ES and TF. Problem was, I had no idea that mini collapse was coming, and so got out with minimum profits and was left on the sidelines just watching as successive support levels were taken out in minutes. At the lows, could only find a buy signal in the YM, and was late to that, and failed to get in. A full recovery followed. Today, I nibbled at the NQ's better relative strength....all the way down, and accrued some unpleasant but just-manageable losses until a valid long entry model appeared in all four contracts simultaneously. That put me into 3 contracts, and the bounce was so sharp, that it was easy to trail a stop as default OCO targets were approached and met. When the bottom falls out suddenly, there's a tendency to consider that something bigger is afoot than mere technical selling. ....that the world is ended or a catastrophe is behind the market. Keep your head clear. It's just the market. It has its own internal logic and no attempts at explaining it with fundamental reasoning with ever produce anything of value to the Trader. Only the Accountant believes in such things. He's of the school of Graham & Dodd. When technical opportunities appear at the right edge of the video screen, those are the only realities of any value. Grab the opportunity and milk it for what it's worth. The bigger the plunge, the bigger the bounce once the signals are in place. And you know when to go all in when the signals appear simultaneously across all four contracts.
Short 1 NQ 4323.5, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1076.7, 1077.2, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4329.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1078.0, +1.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4331.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1072.8, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1070.4, 1069.8, +1.0, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 4311.75, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4208.5, 4208.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4203.75. 4203.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4197.0, 4197.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.1, 1066.2, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1064.9, 1064.9, 1064.9, +3.0, +4.0, +4.0
Long 2 NQ 4185.5, 4185.5, +8.0, +8.0
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +10.5
Volatility can be your friend, but it can also kill you. Yesterday I found myself positioned for the mid morning collapse with shorts in ES and TF. Problem was, I had no idea that mini collapse was coming, and so got out with minimum profits and was left on the sidelines just watching as successive support levels were taken out in minutes. At the lows, could only find a buy signal in the YM, and was late to that, and failed to get in. A full recovery followed. Today, I nibbled at the NQ's better relative strength....all the way down, and accrued some unpleasant but just-manageable losses until a valid long entry model appeared in all four contracts simultaneously. That put me into 3 contracts, and the bounce was so sharp, that it was easy to trail a stop as default OCO targets were approached and met. When the bottom falls out suddenly, there's a tendency to consider that something bigger is afoot than mere technical selling. ....that the world is ended or a catastrophe is behind the market. Keep your head clear. It's just the market. It has its own internal logic and no attempts at explaining it with fundamental reasoning with ever produce anything of value to the Trader. Only the Accountant believes in such things. He's of the school of Graham & Dodd. When technical opportunities appear at the right edge of the video screen, those are the only realities of any value. Grab the opportunity and milk it for what it's worth. The bigger the plunge, the bigger the bounce once the signals are in place. And you know when to go all in when the signals appear simultaneously across all four contracts.
Wed Mar 9 Trade Summary
20160309
Short 2 NQ 4272.5, 4272.75, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1068.8, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 5258.0, 4258.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 4275.0, 4274.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1987.5, 1987.5, +1.0, -1.25
Short 2 NQ 4284.0, 4284.0, -3.5, -3.5
Short 2 TF 1072.8, 1072.8, +1.0, +1.5
Short 1 ES 1990.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.2, 1065.2, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1069.7, 1069.5, +1.5, +0.5
Total ES +1.75
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.4
Short 2 NQ 4272.5, 4272.75, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1069.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1068.8, -1.4
Long 2 NQ 5258.0, 4258.5, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 4275.0, 4274.0, -3.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1987.5, 1987.5, +1.0, -1.25
Short 2 NQ 4284.0, 4284.0, -3.5, -3.5
Short 2 TF 1072.8, 1072.8, +1.0, +1.5
Short 1 ES 1990.25, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1066.2, 1065.2, -0.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1069.7, 1069.5, +1.5, +0.5
Total ES +1.75
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.4
Tues Mar 8 Trade Summary
20160308
Long 2 YM 16947, 16948, +10, -10
Long 1 YM 16934, +30
Short 1 TF 1083.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 4290.0, 4288.25, -0.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1187.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1078.3, 1078.6, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 78.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1181.0, +2.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.2
Long 2 YM 16947, 16948, +10, -10
Long 1 YM 16934, +30
Short 1 TF 1083.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 4290.0, 4288.25, -0.0, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1187.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1078.3, 1078.6, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 78.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1181.0, +2.0
Total YM +30
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.2
Mon Mar 7 Trade Summary
20160307
Short 1 TF 1077.8, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1181.1, 1181.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4307.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4292.5, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1080.4, 1080.1, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 YM 16995, 16993, +7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 16998, 16998, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1088.5, 1088.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +27
Total NQ -5.0
Total TF +3.2
Short 1 TF 1077.8, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1181.1, 1181.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4307.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4292.5, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1080.4, 1080.1, +1.8, +1.0
Short 2 YM 16995, 16993, +7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 16998, 16998, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1088.5, 1088.5, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +27
Total NQ -5.0
Total TF +3.2
Fri Mar 4 Trades & Journal
20160304
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4305.5, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4313.75, 431325, +8.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4301.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4313.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4305.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.1, 1084.7, -0.0, -0.6
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF +1.2
Second trend efforts tend to be truer than 1st. That's a statistic from two of the three Day Models which show that Test-n-Reject are far more common than Persistent Trend. Today I could pretend to congratulate myself on limiting my attempts to short the 2nd Trend as it continued to grind up and through one resistance level and structure level after another. But the truth is, I already had my daily goal with some nice NQ trades, and it was my caution to not give that away on the last daily of the week more than the mark of self discipline to bide 2nd Trends very carefully. Consistency is more important than being right. And nothing feels better than after having been whacked very hard earlier in the week on Tuesday, to close put the 1st Frame on three days thereafter back-to-back with profits. ....and it's Friday. ...a good weekend to all...
Long 1 TF 1071.0, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4305.5, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4313.75, 431325, +8.0, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4301.75, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4313.25, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4305.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 1 NQ 4333.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1084.1, 1084.7, -0.0, -0.6
Total NQ +21.0
Total TF +1.2
Second trend efforts tend to be truer than 1st. That's a statistic from two of the three Day Models which show that Test-n-Reject are far more common than Persistent Trend. Today I could pretend to congratulate myself on limiting my attempts to short the 2nd Trend as it continued to grind up and through one resistance level and structure level after another. But the truth is, I already had my daily goal with some nice NQ trades, and it was my caution to not give that away on the last daily of the week more than the mark of self discipline to bide 2nd Trends very carefully. Consistency is more important than being right. And nothing feels better than after having been whacked very hard earlier in the week on Tuesday, to close put the 1st Frame on three days thereafter back-to-back with profits. ....and it's Friday. ...a good weekend to all...
Thurs Mar 3 Trades & Journal
20160303
Long 1 NQ 4316.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4314.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1065.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1066.9, 1066.9, +1.3, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1068.2, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 4304.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1068.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1071.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1071.3, +1.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +4.7
Trade entry signals, when based on models of comprised disparate elements, can become fuzzy when there is dramatic bifurcation between contracts. At some point, this tug-a-war becomes resolved, but often invites assumptions about the true trend. Assumptions can be costly. It is better to trade such diverging contracts on their individual merits, and keep the size small....sometimes even to the point of being long the one and short the other at the same time. If such a battle persists throughout the 1st Frame of the day, it is quite likely to find some resolution as the Midday Frame ensues. Be patient, and hold back on size. Eventually, the flock of black birds coagulates and syncs into a more unified decision.
Long 1 NQ 4316.5, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4314.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1065.9, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1066.9, 1066.9, +1.3, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1068.2, +1.4
Long 1 NQ 4304.5, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1068.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1071.6, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1071.3, +1.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +4.7
Trade entry signals, when based on models of comprised disparate elements, can become fuzzy when there is dramatic bifurcation between contracts. At some point, this tug-a-war becomes resolved, but often invites assumptions about the true trend. Assumptions can be costly. It is better to trade such diverging contracts on their individual merits, and keep the size small....sometimes even to the point of being long the one and short the other at the same time. If such a battle persists throughout the 1st Frame of the day, it is quite likely to find some resolution as the Midday Frame ensues. Be patient, and hold back on size. Eventually, the flock of black birds coagulates and syncs into a more unified decision.
Wed Mar 2 Trade Summary
20160302
Short 1 NQ 4330.25, +8.0
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.2, +0.7, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1055.6, +1.1
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +4.6
Short 1 NQ 4330.25, +8.0
Short 2 TF 1054.3, 1054.2, +0.7, +2.8
Short 1 TF 1055.6, +1.1
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +4.6
Tues Mar 1 Trades & Journal
20160301
Short 1 TF 1039.3, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1037.9, 1037.3, -1.6, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1035.6, 1035.6, +1.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4248.25, 4248.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4254.25, 4254.25, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16600, +25
Short 1 TF 1040.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1043.0, 1042.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1043.3, 1043.3, 1043.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1043.9, 1043.9, 1043.9, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total YM +25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF -7.4
Some days the swing signals are just challenging...to say the least. When the dust settles, there are often more subtle signs you could have seen that were then outside your purview in the heat of trade entry decisions. Today, I had to look pretty hard even to find those. The trade models appeared, but price was simply not contained by them, and consequently I was repeatedly stp'd out. When such days appear, somethings the best you can do is contain your losses to no more than about the numerical value of a day's profit goals. Stay with your Trade Plan. Let the Plan'sbehavior stops take you out when loss limits are reached. Accept the outcome and resolve to come back fresh tomorrow. ...it's another day....
Short 1 TF 1039.3, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1037.9, 1037.3, -1.6, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1035.6, 1035.6, +1.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4248.25, 4248.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4254.25, 4254.25, +4.0, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16600, +25
Short 1 TF 1040.3, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1043.0, 1042.7, -1.0, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1043.3, 1043.3, 1043.2, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1043.9, 1043.9, 1043.9, -0.8, -0.8, -0.8
Total YM +25
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF -7.4
Some days the swing signals are just challenging...to say the least. When the dust settles, there are often more subtle signs you could have seen that were then outside your purview in the heat of trade entry decisions. Today, I had to look pretty hard even to find those. The trade models appeared, but price was simply not contained by them, and consequently I was repeatedly stp'd out. When such days appear, somethings the best you can do is contain your losses to no more than about the numerical value of a day's profit goals. Stay with your Trade Plan. Let the Plan'sbehavior stops take you out when loss limits are reached. Accept the outcome and resolve to come back fresh tomorrow. ...it's another day....
Mon Feb 29 Trade Summary
20160227
Long 1 TF 1035.1, +2.4
Short 1 YM 16642, +20
Long 1 YM 16599, -3
Long 1 NQ 4234.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, +1.2
Total YM +17
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Long 1 TF 1035.1, +2.4
Short 1 YM 16642, +20
Long 1 YM 16599, -3
Long 1 NQ 4234.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, +1.2
Total YM +17
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Fri Feb 26 Trade Summary
20160226
Long 1 TF 1035.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1033.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1032.8, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1032.9, +1.5,
Short 1 TF 1034.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1037.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1032.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1035.9, +1.5
Total TF +3.9
Long 1 TF 1035.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1033.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1032.8, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1032.9, +1.5,
Short 1 TF 1034.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1037.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1032.0, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1035.9, +1.5
Total TF +3.9
Thurs Feb 25 Trade Summary
20160225
Long 1 TF 1022.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.5, 1020.7, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1018.6, +1.2
Total TF +4.7
Long 1 TF 1022.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1020.5, 1020.7, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1018.6, +1.2
Total TF +4.7
Wed Feb 24 Trade Summary
20160224
Long 1 TF 994.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 994.3, 994.3, +1.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1001.8, 1001.5, +0.7, +1.1
Total TF +6.0
Long 1 TF 994.4, +1.5
Long 2 TF 994.3, 994.3, +1.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1001.8, 1001.5, +0.7, +1.1
Total TF +6.0
Tues Feb 23 Trades & Summary
20160223
Long 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1015.1, 1015.5, 1015.8, +0.7, -0.7, +0.7
Total TF +0.2
Sometimes the turns take place without entry signals. You watch the choppy action. You wait for technical events to appear....but they just don't. Then, when you find yourself left behind, you have a strong temptation to play catch-up so as to look less the fool. Today I resisted that. And all I have to show for it is staying flat. ..but the the market is open again tomorrow too....
Long 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1015.1, 1015.5, 1015.8, +0.7, -0.7, +0.7
Total TF +0.2
Sometimes the turns take place without entry signals. You watch the choppy action. You wait for technical events to appear....but they just don't. Then, when you find yourself left behind, you have a strong temptation to play catch-up so as to look less the fool. Today I resisted that. And all I have to show for it is staying flat. ..but the the market is open again tomorrow too....
Mon Feb 22 Trade Summary
20160222
Short 2 YM 16560, 16560, -10, -10
Short 2 NQ 4216.5, 4216.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1020.7, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 4218.75, 4218.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.5, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1017.7, -0.5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.4
Short 2 YM 16560, 16560, -10, -10
Short 2 NQ 4216.5, 4216.5, +3.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1020.7, +1.4
Short 2 NQ 4218.75, 4218.75, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.5, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4213.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1019.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1017.7, -0.5
Total YM -20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.4
Fri Feb 19 Trades & Journal
20160219
Long 2 TF 998.2, 997.3, +1.0, +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Trade management must be rule based and semi-automatic. If your buy zone allows averaging in a better price, then it should be taken without regard of the trepidation you suffer at the hands of unexpected volatility. The same can go for using a decent size default target when trading the early intraday swings of something as volatile as the mini-Russell 2000 contract. "Position yourself to be surprise", my mentor was fond of saying. But too tight an exit target will deny the fruits of such surprise strength in reversals. Give the market a bit of room to breathe, and it will tend to fulfill its excursions at the significant exhaustion and pivot targets.
Long 2 TF 998.2, 997.3, +1.0, +4.0
Total TF +5.0
Trade management must be rule based and semi-automatic. If your buy zone allows averaging in a better price, then it should be taken without regard of the trepidation you suffer at the hands of unexpected volatility. The same can go for using a decent size default target when trading the early intraday swings of something as volatile as the mini-Russell 2000 contract. "Position yourself to be surprise", my mentor was fond of saying. But too tight an exit target will deny the fruits of such surprise strength in reversals. Give the market a bit of room to breathe, and it will tend to fulfill its excursions at the significant exhaustion and pivot targets.
Thurs Feb 18 Trade Summary
20160218
Long 1 TF 1002.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.9, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1008.1, +1.1
Total TF +5.1
Long 1 TF 1002.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.9, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1008.1, +1.1
Total TF +5.1
Wed Feb 17 Trade Summary
20160217
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1008.2, 1008.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4154.0, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1010.4, 1010.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 4156.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1010.9, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1013.1, 1013.0, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4165, 4165.75, -2.5, +2.0
Total NQ -5.5
Total TF +0.6
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1008.2, 1008.1, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4154.0, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1010.4, 1010.4, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 4156.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1010.9, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1013.1, 1013.0, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4165, 4165.75, -2.5, +2.0
Total NQ -5.5
Total TF +0.6
Tues Feb 16 Trades & Journal
20160216
Long 1 TF 981.1, -1.4
Long 1 TF 979.9, +2.2
Long 1 TF 977.3, +1.7
Long 2 TF 976.8, 977.3, +1.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 978.8, -0.0
Long 2 TF 976.1, 976.1, +0.5, +2.0
Total TF +7.0
Is good to remember how the action can deceive at 1st Trend lows ....how price seems to just keep puking up the longs, like after too much to drink or something bad to eat. This tends to give the impression that something bigger is behind the selling, that there's an overriding fundamental at work that you missed in the morning news. And then, when the vomiting is all done, the selling just dries up and price explodes upward, catching the come-lately shorts by surprise. This is where that false narrative that so many less experienced traders fall prey to and repeat appears, that there's a 'they' out there, manipulating prices to their benefit. ...that the more fundamentally informed institutional traders or the hedge funds are somehow orchestrating these events so 'they' can load up while pushing 'us' little guys aside while getting us to fall for their fake sell-offs. ...that the market is all somehow rigged and in order to better level the playing field, we have to examine closely what these cognoscenti are doing, what footprints they may be leaving, what tea leaves they've left disturbed in order to better get in sync with their evil machinations. Such nonsense. Market activity forms patterns, not footprints. There is no orchestration. There is no cognoscenti. There is no 'us' versus 'them'. Those guys compete with each other more than they compete with us. Price, structure and momentum models tend to repeat themselves at the right edge of your video screen with great regularity. It's our own emotions we must contend with that would have us believe something outside the market itself is actually at work. Put these models into a Trade Plan. See nothing else. Know nothing else. Be the Plan.
Long 1 TF 981.1, -1.4
Long 1 TF 979.9, +2.2
Long 1 TF 977.3, +1.7
Long 2 TF 976.8, 977.3, +1.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 978.8, -0.0
Long 2 TF 976.1, 976.1, +0.5, +2.0
Total TF +7.0
Is good to remember how the action can deceive at 1st Trend lows ....how price seems to just keep puking up the longs, like after too much to drink or something bad to eat. This tends to give the impression that something bigger is behind the selling, that there's an overriding fundamental at work that you missed in the morning news. And then, when the vomiting is all done, the selling just dries up and price explodes upward, catching the come-lately shorts by surprise. This is where that false narrative that so many less experienced traders fall prey to and repeat appears, that there's a 'they' out there, manipulating prices to their benefit. ...that the more fundamentally informed institutional traders or the hedge funds are somehow orchestrating these events so 'they' can load up while pushing 'us' little guys aside while getting us to fall for their fake sell-offs. ...that the market is all somehow rigged and in order to better level the playing field, we have to examine closely what these cognoscenti are doing, what footprints they may be leaving, what tea leaves they've left disturbed in order to better get in sync with their evil machinations. Such nonsense. Market activity forms patterns, not footprints. There is no orchestration. There is no cognoscenti. There is no 'us' versus 'them'. Those guys compete with each other more than they compete with us. Price, structure and momentum models tend to repeat themselves at the right edge of your video screen with great regularity. It's our own emotions we must contend with that would have us believe something outside the market itself is actually at work. Put these models into a Trade Plan. See nothing else. Know nothing else. Be the Plan.
Fri Feb 12 Trade Summary
20160212
Long 2 TF 959.8, 959.5, +2.0, +2.3
Long 1 TF 959.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 957.9, 958.2, +1.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 956.9, 956.8, +1.0, +2.0
Total TF +7.6
Long 2 TF 959.8, 959.5, +2.0, +2.3
Long 1 TF 959.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 957.9, 958.2, +1.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 956.9, 956.8, +1.0, +2.0
Total TF +7.6
Thur Feb 11 Trades & Journal
20160211
Long 1 TF 945.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 944.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 950.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 951.0, -1.5
Short 1 YM 15710, +30
Short 1 TF 954.0, -0.7
Short 1 TF 954.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 947.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 947.0, 947.5, +2.0, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +3.8
Resolutions to change behavior are must easier to write than to keep. Today I did the same error as yesterday, letting go of the early buy signals because I lost faith in choppy action. Yes, I could make the same excuse that Yellen was yappin', but in truth it was just my head that wasn't on that well. Yellen made no difference to the success of both day's early buy signals. Both needed to be allowed to work. So how does one change behavior. One thing that clearly helps is to add the resolution into your Trade Plan and then read that addendum on the following day just before trading begins. Get the message into your head. Give your trader voice. Let that voice be the guide that you listen to, and not the appraisal of your tape reading Analyst, or your loss fearing Accountant. Be the Trader.
Long 1 TF 945.4, -0.0
Long 1 TF 944.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 950.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 951.0, -1.5
Short 1 YM 15710, +30
Short 1 TF 954.0, -0.7
Short 1 TF 954.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 947.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 947.0, 947.5, +2.0, +1.0
Total YM +30
Total TF +3.8
Resolutions to change behavior are must easier to write than to keep. Today I did the same error as yesterday, letting go of the early buy signals because I lost faith in choppy action. Yes, I could make the same excuse that Yellen was yappin', but in truth it was just my head that wasn't on that well. Yellen made no difference to the success of both day's early buy signals. Both needed to be allowed to work. So how does one change behavior. One thing that clearly helps is to add the resolution into your Trade Plan and then read that addendum on the following day just before trading begins. Get the message into your head. Give your trader voice. Let that voice be the guide that you listen to, and not the appraisal of your tape reading Analyst, or your loss fearing Accountant. Be the Trader.
Wed Feb 10 Trades & Journal
20160210
Long 1 TF 965.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 971.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 975.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.0
Anticipated news can make the market action appear jittery and stutter-step at the turns. ...thus it was today in the early going with Fed Chairman Yellen scheduled at the hour. It's not like a simple econ report that is released-and-done-with. Testimony can drag on and so position commitments are halfhearted. ...at least that's what I keep telling myself was the reason for dumping positions with so small a gain each time. Consequently, I left a day's profit goal on the table with two of my three positions, otherwise easily gained. Action is deceiving. Take the position for the signal it offered and forget about the action. Trading on price action is the act of opening the door on intuition. 'Price action' is all the rage now. Having given up on sacred science like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, Steidlmayer's Market Profile and now even algorithmic high-frequency entries, the traders have returned to plain intuitive 'tape reading', which discredited by blown out accounts years ago, has been brushed up with the new coat of verbal paint called 'price action'....no doubt soon to be discredited again by similar results. Trade with a Plan. Look for entry models from disparate technical elements that arrive simultaneously at the right edge of the video screen regardless of the oft deceptive appearance of 'price action'. Then, manage the outcome.
Long 1 TF 965.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 971.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 975.2, +1.0
Total TF +3.0
Anticipated news can make the market action appear jittery and stutter-step at the turns. ...thus it was today in the early going with Fed Chairman Yellen scheduled at the hour. It's not like a simple econ report that is released-and-done-with. Testimony can drag on and so position commitments are halfhearted. ...at least that's what I keep telling myself was the reason for dumping positions with so small a gain each time. Consequently, I left a day's profit goal on the table with two of my three positions, otherwise easily gained. Action is deceiving. Take the position for the signal it offered and forget about the action. Trading on price action is the act of opening the door on intuition. 'Price action' is all the rage now. Having given up on sacred science like Elliott Wave and Fibonacci, Steidlmayer's Market Profile and now even algorithmic high-frequency entries, the traders have returned to plain intuitive 'tape reading', which discredited by blown out accounts years ago, has been brushed up with the new coat of verbal paint called 'price action'....no doubt soon to be discredited again by similar results. Trade with a Plan. Look for entry models from disparate technical elements that arrive simultaneously at the right edge of the video screen regardless of the oft deceptive appearance of 'price action'. Then, manage the outcome.
Tues Feb 9 Trade Summary
20160209
Short 1 ES 1839.5, +3.0
Short 2 TF 966.3, 967.4, -1.7, -1.4
Short 2 TF 969.0, 969.0, 969.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 997.7, +3.0
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +5.9
Short 1 ES 1839.5, +3.0
Short 2 TF 966.3, 967.4, -1.7, -1.4
Short 2 TF 969.0, 969.0, 969.4, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 997.7, +3.0
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +5.9
Mon Feb 8 Trade Summary
20160208
Short 2 TF 968.6, 969.6, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.9, +3.0
Long 1 TF 964.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 961.7, 962.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 961.6, +1.3
Long 2 TF 960.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 959.9, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 3916.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 964.4, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +6.7
Short 2 TF 968.6, 969.6, -1.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 969.9, +3.0
Long 1 TF 964.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 961.7, 962.0, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 961.6, +1.3
Long 2 TF 960.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 959.9, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 3916.25, +10.0
Short 1 TF 964.4, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +6.7
Fri Feb 5 Trade Summary
20160205
Short 1 TF 1001.2, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1898.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 998.5, +1.1
Short 1 ES 1893.25, +3.0
Total ES +2.0
Total TF -0.3
Short 1 TF 1001.2, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1898.0, -1.0
Long 1 TF 998.5, +1.1
Short 1 ES 1893.25, +3.0
Total ES +2.0
Total TF -0.3
Thurs Feb 4 Trades & Journal
20160204
Long 1 TF 1006.4, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4453.75, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4358.75, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4363.0, -3.0
Short 3 TF 1019.4, 1019.4, 1019.5, -0.4, , -0.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1019.8, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1023.2, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1023.2, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1016.3, 1015.3, -1.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1013.0, 1013.3, +1.7, -0.1
Total NQ -9.0
Total TF +6.3
Tops and bottoms have come with so many retests and so much over-reach these past sessions that by the time the true climax is finally in I've spent too much effort and cost positioning, only then to act weak about my exits... just when the best opportunity for a runner is finally appearing. This suggests a big improvement is needed in management
and psyche. ...and we probably face even greater volatility in the days to come, not less. Clear your head. Expect the unexpected. The early trends are not done until early position holders are taken out. Then, when all those fighting the apparent reality of the trend are exhausted and flat, a reversal can finally take hold. Take note of those signs of climax. Save some strength for that position, even and especially if it means overcoming some losses.
Long 1 TF 1006.4, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4453.75, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4358.75, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4363.0, -3.0
Short 3 TF 1019.4, 1019.4, 1019.5, -0.4, , -0.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1019.8, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1023.2, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1023.2, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1016.3, 1015.3, -1.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1013.0, 1013.3, +1.7, -0.1
Total NQ -9.0
Total TF +6.3
Tops and bottoms have come with so many retests and so much over-reach these past sessions that by the time the true climax is finally in I've spent too much effort and cost positioning, only then to act weak about my exits... just when the best opportunity for a runner is finally appearing. This suggests a big improvement is needed in management
and psyche. ...and we probably face even greater volatility in the days to come, not less. Clear your head. Expect the unexpected. The early trends are not done until early position holders are taken out. Then, when all those fighting the apparent reality of the trend are exhausted and flat, a reversal can finally take hold. Take note of those signs of climax. Save some strength for that position, even and especially if it means overcoming some losses.
Wed Feb 3 Trade Summary
20160203
Long 1 TF 1003.3, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1005.6, 1004.7, -1.5, -1.6
Long 1 TF 993.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 991.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 998.3, -1.4
Long 1 TF 996.8, 996.0, 995.8, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 996.0, 996.0, +3.0, +3.0
Total TF +0.9
Long 1 TF 1003.3, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1005.6, 1004.7, -1.5, -1.6
Long 1 TF 993.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 991.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 998.3, -1.4
Long 1 TF 996.8, 996.0, 995.8, -1.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 996.0, 996.0, +3.0, +3.0
Total TF +0.9
Tues Feb 2 Trade Summary
20160202
Short 1 TF 1015.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1011.7, 1010.9, 1011.2, -0.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1010.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1009.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1009.8, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1013.4, 1014.2, -0.0, +3.0
Total TF +7.5
Short 1 TF 1015.4, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1011.7, 1010.9, 1011.2, -0.0, +1.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1010.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1009.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1009.8, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1013.4, 1014.2, -0.0, +3.0
Total TF +7.5
Mon Feb 1 Trade Summary
20160201
Long 2 TF 1018.3, 1017.5, -0.0, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1017.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.9, +2.0, +3.0
Total TF +6.8
Long 2 TF 1018.3, 1017.5, -0.0, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1017.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1016.7, 1016.9, +2.0, +3.0
Total TF +6.8
Fri Jan 29 Trades & Journal
20160129
Short 1 ES 1900.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1016.6, 1017.1, 1017.7, -0.0, +1.5, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4215.75, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1120.2, 1119.7, -0.4, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1121.0, 1120.7, -0.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1120.6, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1015.4, +2.0
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +5.6
The market's behavior is often perversely designed to encourage you to do the wrong thing at the wrong time, especially on Persistent Trend Days. Yes, the first trend direction of the day will eventually fail, but on a Persistent Trend Day that seems to come out of nowhere, it's repeated impulse spikes are surprising. The reversal signals appear and offer your position encouraging results, so you hold, thinking it would be cowardice and a crime to take profits too soon. ....only to have the market surge back into new extremes to stop your proposed big runner out. Then, when a more final, exhaustive sell signal does appear, you nearly miss it, and this time you are so please to be capturing at least a decent profit that you let it go too quickly and forego all the gratification of holding the right runner you mistakenly took for earlier reversals. It doesn't matter how stupid you look. Take each position for what it is. Acknowledge the signs of a possible Persistent Trend immediately as they appear, and take any profit gained accordingly. Wait for that more exhaustive signal that finally comes after a true WorkDone target has finally been achieved, and when a true pullback finally appears, hold on and give the position a chance. Stay calm. Don't let your early mistakes rattle you. You've seen this before. Let the market speak. Just listen. Accept it for what it is, and modify your behavior accordingly.
Short 1 ES 1900.5, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1016.6, 1017.1, 1017.7, -0.0, +1.5, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4215.75, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1120.2, 1119.7, -0.4, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1121.0, 1120.7, -0.6, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1120.6, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1015.4, +2.0
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +5.6
The market's behavior is often perversely designed to encourage you to do the wrong thing at the wrong time, especially on Persistent Trend Days. Yes, the first trend direction of the day will eventually fail, but on a Persistent Trend Day that seems to come out of nowhere, it's repeated impulse spikes are surprising. The reversal signals appear and offer your position encouraging results, so you hold, thinking it would be cowardice and a crime to take profits too soon. ....only to have the market surge back into new extremes to stop your proposed big runner out. Then, when a more final, exhaustive sell signal does appear, you nearly miss it, and this time you are so please to be capturing at least a decent profit that you let it go too quickly and forego all the gratification of holding the right runner you mistakenly took for earlier reversals. It doesn't matter how stupid you look. Take each position for what it is. Acknowledge the signs of a possible Persistent Trend immediately as they appear, and take any profit gained accordingly. Wait for that more exhaustive signal that finally comes after a true WorkDone target has finally been achieved, and when a true pullback finally appears, hold on and give the position a chance. Stay calm. Don't let your early mistakes rattle you. You've seen this before. Let the market speak. Just listen. Accept it for what it is, and modify your behavior accordingly.
Thurs Jan 28 Trade Summary
20160128
Short 1 TF 1010.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1007.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1005.9, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1005.0, -1.4
Long 2 TF 10004.0, 1004.1, +1.4, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1004.1, -1.4
Long 1 NQ 4136.25, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1000.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 999.3, 999.7, +1.0, +3.6
Long 1 TF 999.7, -0.9
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +3.6
Short 1 TF 1010.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1007.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1005.9, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1005.0, -1.4
Long 2 TF 10004.0, 1004.1, +1.4, +1.6
Long 1 TF 1004.1, -1.4
Long 1 NQ 4136.25, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1000.9, -0.7
Long 2 TF 999.3, 999.7, +1.0, +3.6
Long 1 TF 999.7, -0.9
Short 1 TF 1004.2, +1.0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +3.6
Wed Jan 27 Trade Summary
20160127
Long 1 TF 1008.6, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 4199.0, 4197.75, +6.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4193.0, -3.0
Long 1 NQ 4190.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1003.5, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1007.0, 1006.0, -1.4, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1006.0, 1006.0, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1005.1, 1005.1, +1.0, +3.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +2.1
Long 1 TF 1008.6, +1.3
Long 2 NQ 4199.0, 4197.75, +6.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4193.0, -3.0
Long 1 NQ 4190.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1003.5, +1.1
Long 2 TF 1007.0, 1006.0, -1.4, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1006.0, 1006.0, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1005.1, 1005.1, +1.0, +3.0
Total NQ +11.0
Total TF +2.1
Tues Jan 26 Trade Summary
20160126
Long 1 TF 1000.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 999.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 996.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 996.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1002.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1003.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1004.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1005.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.3
Long 1 TF 1000.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 999.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 996.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 996.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1002.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1003.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1004.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1005.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1007.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.3
Mon Jan 25 Trade Summary
20160125
Short 1 TF 1014.1, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1013.8, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1009.4, +2.0
Total TF +5.1
Short 1 TF 1014.1, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1013.8, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1009.4, +2.0
Total TF +5.1
Fri Jan 22 Trade Summary
20160122
Short 1 NQ 4207.5, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1013.8, 1013.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1015.9, 1015.9, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4232.5, 4230.5, +8.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4233.75, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1012.2, 1012.2, +2.0, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1011.7, 1011.0, 1011.0, -0.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1890.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1008.7, 1008.7, +2.0, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1008.2, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1107.0, 1107.0, 1107.3, +1.0, +3.0, +4.0
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.0
Short 1 NQ 4207.5, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1012.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1013.8, 1013.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1015.9, 1015.9, -1.4, -1.4
Short 2 NQ 4232.5, 4230.5, +8.0, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4233.75, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1012.2, 1012.2, +2.0, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1011.7, 1011.0, 1011.0, -0.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1890.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1008.7, 1008.7, +2.0, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1008.2, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1107.0, 1107.0, 1107.3, +1.0, +3.0, +4.0
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.0
Thurs Jan 21 Trade Summary
20160121
Short 1 TF 995.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 996.5, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1000.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 999.4, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1004.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1005.0, +2.0
Total TF +6.7
Short 1 TF 995.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 996.5, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1000.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 999.4, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1004.2, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1005.0, +2.0
Total TF +6.7
Wed Jan 20 Trade Summary
20160120
Long 1 TF 967.0, -1.4
Long 1 ES 1832.75, +5.0
Long 1 TF 962.4, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4017.5, -1.0
Long 1 ES 1822.25, +4.0
Total ES +9.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF -2.4
Long 1 TF 967.0, -1.4
Long 1 ES 1832.75, +5.0
Long 1 TF 962.4, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4017.5, -1.0
Long 1 ES 1822.25, +4.0
Total ES +9.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF -2.4
Tues Jan 19 Trade Summary
20160119
Long 2 TF 1003.8, 1004.2, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1003.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1002.7, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4176.5, +5.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +7.0
Long 2 TF 1003.8, 1004.2, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1003.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1002.7, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4176.5, +5.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +7.0
Fri Jan 15 Trade Summary
20160115
Long 1 TF 995.7, +3.0
Long 1 TF 999.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1000.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 992.6, +2.4
Total TF +4.6
Long 1 TF 995.7, +3.0
Long 1 TF 999.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1000.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 992.6, +2.4
Total TF +4.6
Thurs Jan 14 Trades and Journal
20160114
Long 1 NQ 4163.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1003.3, 1003.5, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 999.3, 999.7, +1.0, -1.2
Long 1 NQ 4128.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 996.7, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16070, -10
Short 2 TF 1003.7, 1004.6, -0.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 16113, 16113, -0, -0
Short 1 TF 1010.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1011.4, 1011.4, +1.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1116.2, 1116.2, -0.4, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1909.25, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1010.8, +1.7
Long 1 TF 1007.5, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1005.7, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -10
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +2.3
Entry levels tend to come in zones. A trader might have an exact set of numbers from his Pivot / Exhaustion Grid, but the more volatile the day, the more likely those numbers will bleed. Same can be said of any tool that analyses structure. The momentum behind fast charging prices push the waves out far beyond expectations. If the entry models are still intact after such over-throws, then you only have two choices, to assess the day as too hot to play, or get back in the positions when the next entry level arrives after suffering a manageable dollar amount of stop-outs. But stop-outs can take the wind from your sail, and yet can come just at the time when you must be most alert to the truer turn and reversal signals. Regardless, don't let your stop outs exceed the dollar amount of your profit goal. There's always another day if you keep your losses to a minimum. With the bear tending to be more volatile than the bull, we may yet be facing some very challenging days ahead for short term futures trading.
Long 1 NQ 4163.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1003.3, 1003.5, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 999.3, 999.7, +1.0, -1.2
Long 1 NQ 4128.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 996.7, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16070, -10
Short 2 TF 1003.7, 1004.6, -0.0, -0.7
Short 2 YM 16113, 16113, -0, -0
Short 1 TF 1010.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1011.4, 1011.4, +1.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1116.2, 1116.2, -0.4, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1909.25, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1010.8, +1.7
Long 1 TF 1007.5, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1005.7, +2.0
Total ES +2.0
Total YM -10
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +2.3
Entry levels tend to come in zones. A trader might have an exact set of numbers from his Pivot / Exhaustion Grid, but the more volatile the day, the more likely those numbers will bleed. Same can be said of any tool that analyses structure. The momentum behind fast charging prices push the waves out far beyond expectations. If the entry models are still intact after such over-throws, then you only have two choices, to assess the day as too hot to play, or get back in the positions when the next entry level arrives after suffering a manageable dollar amount of stop-outs. But stop-outs can take the wind from your sail, and yet can come just at the time when you must be most alert to the truer turn and reversal signals. Regardless, don't let your stop outs exceed the dollar amount of your profit goal. There's always another day if you keep your losses to a minimum. With the bear tending to be more volatile than the bull, we may yet be facing some very challenging days ahead for short term futures trading.
Wed Jan 13 Trade Summary
20160113
Long 1 NQ 4338.5, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4342.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1039.6, 1039.7, -0.3, +1.0
Long 4 TF 1038.2, 1037.0, 1036.6, 1036.5 -1.4, -1.4, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1034.0, 1034.0, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1032.1, 1032.1, -0.2, -0.2
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -6.8
Long 1 NQ 4338.5, +8.0
Long 1 NQ 4342.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1039.6, 1039.7, -0.3, +1.0
Long 4 TF 1038.2, 1037.0, 1036.6, 1036.5 -1.4, -1.4, -1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1034.0, 1034.0, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1032.1, 1032.1, -0.2, -0.2
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -6.8
Tues Jan 12 Trades & Journal
20160112
Short 2 TF 1051.4, 1051.4, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1052.6, 1053.5, +2.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1045.9, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1144.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1144.2, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1143.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1142.6, +3.0
Total TF +5.7
Trade management is a series of 'what-ifs'. There is simply no time to think otherwise. And in the case of a trade going a distance against you but not quite enough to stop you out, that what-if is best served as a reprieve. Pre-acknowledge that you can entered too early in some cases, and instead of trying to extend your luck, back out of the trade at break-even or near break-even when given reprieve. If indeed a true turn or break out is at hand, the market is now proscribing for you what the entry range for that position should have actually been. Reset your entry nearer the edge of that newly established range instead of the one you had assumed it to be. There, your entry now stands a better chance. This kind of what-if must be rehearsed, practiced, and re-rehearsed. You don't have time to think about it, or weigh the possibility that the outcome will finally benefit you. You entered poorly...at least according to what the market structure now tells you, so enter again at a better place, or forget the trade altogether and wait for the next larger swing signal opportunity to present itself later. If your system of acquiring market structure and support / resistance do not lend themselves normally to greater accuracy in the first place, then you are using the wrong methods of determining such things. Take the time to find and develop them. You can't rely on luck or crude methods for long in the world of stock index futures.
Short 2 TF 1051.4, 1051.4, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1052.6, 1053.5, +2.3, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1045.9, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1144.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1144.2, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1143.6, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1142.6, +3.0
Total TF +5.7
Trade management is a series of 'what-ifs'. There is simply no time to think otherwise. And in the case of a trade going a distance against you but not quite enough to stop you out, that what-if is best served as a reprieve. Pre-acknowledge that you can entered too early in some cases, and instead of trying to extend your luck, back out of the trade at break-even or near break-even when given reprieve. If indeed a true turn or break out is at hand, the market is now proscribing for you what the entry range for that position should have actually been. Reset your entry nearer the edge of that newly established range instead of the one you had assumed it to be. There, your entry now stands a better chance. This kind of what-if must be rehearsed, practiced, and re-rehearsed. You don't have time to think about it, or weigh the possibility that the outcome will finally benefit you. You entered poorly...at least according to what the market structure now tells you, so enter again at a better place, or forget the trade altogether and wait for the next larger swing signal opportunity to present itself later. If your system of acquiring market structure and support / resistance do not lend themselves normally to greater accuracy in the first place, then you are using the wrong methods of determining such things. Take the time to find and develop them. You can't rely on luck or crude methods for long in the world of stock index futures.
Mon Jan 11 Trade Summary
20160111
Short 1 TF 1050.8, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1140.0, 1140.2, -1.4, -0.0
Long 1 ES 1913.00, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16335, +15
Long 1 ES 1911.25, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4248.5, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, -0.0
Long 1 ES 1905.75, +4.0
Total ES +8.0
Total YM +15
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.6
Short 1 TF 1050.8, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1140.0, 1140.2, -1.4, -0.0
Long 1 ES 1913.00, +4.0
Short 1 YM 16335, +15
Long 1 ES 1911.25, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4248.5, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1036.3, -0.0
Long 1 ES 1905.75, +4.0
Total ES +8.0
Total YM +15
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +0.6
Fri Jan 8 Trades & Journal
20160108
Long 2 TF 1058.8, 1058.8, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1054.7, 1054.7, 1054.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Total TF +6.0
Sometimes you have to stalk your trade signals patiently... but that result looks more accidental today than any gift of patience I displayed. Truth is, the NQ offered valid signals at nearly every swing turn in the First Frame, and yet I stubbornly sat on my hands as if the TF were the only car I'd drive. Four contracts offer four opportunities. It's great when they all add in for the same swing signal at a potential turn, but what if they don't? Ignoring an opportunity in the ES or NQ when the TF is off in an alternative universe is like suffering from carpal tunnel syndrome. Don't let your joints and tendons get that stiff.
Long 2 TF 1058.8, 1058.8, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1054.7, 1054.7, 1054.0, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Total TF +6.0
Sometimes you have to stalk your trade signals patiently... but that result looks more accidental today than any gift of patience I displayed. Truth is, the NQ offered valid signals at nearly every swing turn in the First Frame, and yet I stubbornly sat on my hands as if the TF were the only car I'd drive. Four contracts offer four opportunities. It's great when they all add in for the same swing signal at a potential turn, but what if they don't? Ignoring an opportunity in the ES or NQ when the TF is off in an alternative universe is like suffering from carpal tunnel syndrome. Don't let your joints and tendons get that stiff.
Thur Jan 7 Trade Summary
20160107
Short 1 TF 1174.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1172.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.1, 1170.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1169.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1175.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1178.4, +1.3
Total TF +2.4
Short 1 TF 1174.3, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1172.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.1, 1170.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1169.2, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1175.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1178.4, +1.3
Total TF +2.4
Wed Jan 6 Trade Summary
20160106
Long 1 TF 1194.0, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1195.8, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1186.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1198.3, 1198.2, +1.0, +1.2
Total TF +4.9
Long 1 TF 1194.0, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1195.8, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1186.0, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1198.3, 1198.2, +1.0, +1.2
Total TF +4.9
Tues Jan 5 Trade Summary
20160105
Long 1 TF 1103.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1101.9, 1101.6, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1100.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1109.2, +1.7
Total TF +2.2
Long 1 TF 1103.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1101.9, 1101.6, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1100.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1108.1, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1109.2, +1.7
Total TF +2.2
Mon Jan 4 2016 Trade Summary
20160104
Long 1 TF 1106.9, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -1.2
Long 2 TF 1101.1, 1101.2, +1.0, +3.7
Total TF +5.5
Long 1 TF 1106.9, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1103.0, -1.2
Long 2 TF 1101.1, 1101.2, +1.0, +3.7
Total TF +5.5
Mon Dec 21 Trade Summary
20151221
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1119.2, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1123.6, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1124.1, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.3, +0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1124.7, +1.0
Total TF +5.1
Short 1 TF 1121.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1119.2, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1123.6, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1124.1, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1124.4, 1124.3, +0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1124.7, +1.0
Total TF +5.1
Fri Dec 18 Trade & Journal
20151218
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1126.6, +0.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1127.3, 1127.2, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1127.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1128.1, +1.0
Total TF +4.3
Facing early profits but while still shy of a daily profit goal can be a quandary, especially on Friday, and especially on the Friday before Christmas with a last minute package to get in the Post. Should you take the next trade..? or close out the cash register and call it a frame. Today, I left two of the best trades of the frame on the table rather than risking those early profits that were a little harder won. At some point, the goal of consistency can actually impede the goal of larger daily goals. You get comfortable...and comfort is the enemy of trading. I'll think about this later.... on the way to the Post.
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1126.6, +0.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1127.3, 1127.2, +2.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1127.1, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1127.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1128.1, +1.0
Total TF +4.3
Facing early profits but while still shy of a daily profit goal can be a quandary, especially on Friday, and especially on the Friday before Christmas with a last minute package to get in the Post. Should you take the next trade..? or close out the cash register and call it a frame. Today, I left two of the best trades of the frame on the table rather than risking those early profits that were a little harder won. At some point, the goal of consistency can actually impede the goal of larger daily goals. You get comfortable...and comfort is the enemy of trading. I'll think about this later.... on the way to the Post.
Thurs Dec 17 Trade Summary
20151217
Long 2 TF 1144.7, 1144.8, -0.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1144.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1147.3, 1147.4, +3.0, +1.5
Total TF +4.7
Long 2 TF 1144.7, 1144.8, -0.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1144.1, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1147.3, 1147.4, +3.0, +1.5
Total TF +4.7
Wed Dec 16 Trade Summary
20151216
Long 1 TF 1135.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1134.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1133.8, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1134.2, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17524, 17521, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1130.9, 1129.9, +1.0, +2.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +4.3
Long 1 TF 1135.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1134.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1133.8, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1134.2, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17524, 17521, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1130.9, 1129.9, +1.0, +2.0
Total YM -14
Total TF +4.3
Tues Dec 15 Trade Summary
20151215
Short 6 TF 1121.7, 1122.7, 1123.4, 1124.7, 1124.8, 1124.5, -1.4, -1.4, -2.0, +1.5, +1.6, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, 1125.5, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1120.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.4, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1118.9, 1118.8, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1118.9, 1118.8, +1.5, +1.5
Total TF +3.8
Short 6 TF 1121.7, 1122.7, 1123.4, 1124.7, 1124.8, 1124.5, -1.4, -1.4, -2.0, +1.5, +1.6, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, 1125.5, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1120.7, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.4, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1118.9, 1118.8, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1118.9, 1118.8, +1.5, +1.5
Total TF +3.8
Mon Dec 14 Trades and Journal
20151214
Long 1 TF 1123.2, -0.7 (Dec contract)
Long 1 TF 1117.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1117.7, +2.0
Long 3 TF 1110.0, 1109.0, 1109.6, -0.0, -0.1, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1108.5, 1107.3, 1107.8, -0.0, +2.0, +1.0
Total TF +3.8
My mentor always use to say, "Position yourself to be surprised." Of course, he said a lot of things and was full of market wisdom and witticism. But later on, I came to realize that what he must have meant by that was always to trade on your technical price and pattern models as they appear at hand before you, and often enough those unexpected news spikes just seems to appear. ....sometimes as if the market somehow had its own sort of prescience. Today was just such a day..., but I ignored the rule of Serial Sequent to be a buyer just before a big vertical news pop appeared as if out of nowhere. (Someone later told me it was Draghi-speak, but it makes little difference what the source.) Pay attention to the models at hand. In order to be able to act on them, you must be able to see them coming in advance, on a what-if basis. Be the Plan.
Long 1 TF 1123.2, -0.7 (Dec contract)
Long 1 TF 1117.0, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1117.7, +2.0
Long 3 TF 1110.0, 1109.0, 1109.6, -0.0, -0.1, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1108.5, 1107.3, 1107.8, -0.0, +2.0, +1.0
Total TF +3.8
My mentor always use to say, "Position yourself to be surprised." Of course, he said a lot of things and was full of market wisdom and witticism. But later on, I came to realize that what he must have meant by that was always to trade on your technical price and pattern models as they appear at hand before you, and often enough those unexpected news spikes just seems to appear. ....sometimes as if the market somehow had its own sort of prescience. Today was just such a day..., but I ignored the rule of Serial Sequent to be a buyer just before a big vertical news pop appeared as if out of nowhere. (Someone later told me it was Draghi-speak, but it makes little difference what the source.) Pay attention to the models at hand. In order to be able to act on them, you must be able to see them coming in advance, on a what-if basis. Be the Plan.
Fri Dec 11 Trade Summary
20151211
Short 1 TF 1137.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1133.0, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.0, 1132.0, +0.7, +1.8
Short 1 YM 17288, +20
Short 1 YM 17288, -0
Short 1 YM 17295, +20
Short 1 TF 1137.1, +1.0
Total YM +40
Total TF +3.8
Short 1 TF 1137.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1133.0, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.0, 1132.0, +0.7, +1.8
Short 1 YM 17288, +20
Short 1 YM 17288, -0
Short 1 YM 17295, +20
Short 1 TF 1137.1, +1.0
Total YM +40
Total TF +3.8
Thur Dec 10 Trade Summary
20151210
Short 3 TF 1148.3, 1148.6, 1148.3, +2.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1148.2, +1.0
Total TF +4.7
Short 3 TF 1148.3, 1148.6, 1148.3, +2.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1148.2, +1.0
Total TF +4.7
Wed Dec 9 Trade Summary
20151209
Short 1 TF 1164.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1165.3, 1165.3, +0.1, +0.1
Short 2 TF 1165.6, 1165.3, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.1, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1161.1, -0.3
Total TF +2.0
Short 1 TF 1164.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1165.3, 1165.3, +0.1, +0.1
Short 2 TF 1165.6, 1165.3, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.1, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1161.1, -0.3
Total TF +2.0
Tues Dec 8 Trade Summary
20151208
Short 1 NQ 4658.25, -.5
Short 2 TF 1157.7, 1158.2, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.7, +3.0
Total NQ -0.50
Total TF +5.7
Short 1 NQ 4658.25, -.5
Short 2 TF 1157.7, 1158.2, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.7, +3.0
Total NQ -0.50
Total TF +5.7
Mon Dec 7 Trade Summary
20151207
Long 2 TF 1174.1, 1174.1, +1.0, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1171.9, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1168.5, +0.1
Total TF +5.1
Long 2 TF 1174.1, 1174.1, +1.0, +1.9
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1171.9, +0.1
Long 1 TF 1168.5, +0.1
Total TF +5.1
Fri Dec 4 Trade Summary
20151204
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1172.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.2, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1177.6, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.1, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1179.2, +2.0
Total TF +5.1
Short 1 TF 1171.5, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1172.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.2, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1177.6, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.1, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1179.2, +2.0
Total TF +5.1
Thur Dec 3 Trade Summary
0151203
Long 2 TF 1192.9, 1193.0, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1192.8, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1192.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1190.3, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1190.2, 1190.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1184.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1182.9, +3.0
Total TF +7.0
Long 2 TF 1192.9, 1193.0, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1192.8, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1192.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1190.3, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1190.2, 1190.3, +0.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1184.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1182.9, +3.0
Total TF +7.0
Wed Dec 2 Trade Summary
20151202
Short 1 NQ 4732.50, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1201.8, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1204.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +4.3
Short 1 NQ 4732.50, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1201.8, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1204.8, +1.3
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +4.3
Tues Dec 1 Trades & Journal
20151201
Long 2 NQ 4682.5, 4682.0, +5.0, +9.5
Short 1 TF 1202.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1202.9, +1.1
Long 4 TF 1198.6, 1197.6, 1197.1, 1197.0, -1.6, -0.0, +1.6, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4683.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1198.6, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1199.3, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 4707.0, +4.0
Total NQ +23.5
Total TF +2.9
Today was a day that makes you sit up and take notice of Inflection Breakout levels. The breaks in the collapse were so clean and so profitable and it just hurt to be stop out of longs and stranded on the sidelines without the complete stop-n-reverse model executed. Problem is, such breakouts are not the norm, and after being chopped out of messy breakout action a few times, that section of a Trade Plan can get dusty, as mine certainly was today. I couldn't even hear the rusty joints of my elbows squeaking as I reached for the mouse to place the orders. ....because my elbows never even moved. ....dear in the headlights phenom. When the filters for taking breakouts are just right, your head has to be in that game fully prepared. ....not on the sidelines pondering the possibilities as the numbers roll by. Those of us that trade the First Frame for a living can get lazy and comfortable at all the nice swing trends that usually appear as price tries and fails to discover the True Trend in early going. Then a day like this comes along and gives you a jolt: the best trades are, indeed, sometimes the breakouts.
Long 2 NQ 4682.5, 4682.0, +5.0, +9.5
Short 1 TF 1202.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1202.9, +1.1
Long 4 TF 1198.6, 1197.6, 1197.1, 1197.0, -1.6, -0.0, +1.6, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4683.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1198.6, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1199.3, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 4707.0, +4.0
Total NQ +23.5
Total TF +2.9
Today was a day that makes you sit up and take notice of Inflection Breakout levels. The breaks in the collapse were so clean and so profitable and it just hurt to be stop out of longs and stranded on the sidelines without the complete stop-n-reverse model executed. Problem is, such breakouts are not the norm, and after being chopped out of messy breakout action a few times, that section of a Trade Plan can get dusty, as mine certainly was today. I couldn't even hear the rusty joints of my elbows squeaking as I reached for the mouse to place the orders. ....because my elbows never even moved. ....dear in the headlights phenom. When the filters for taking breakouts are just right, your head has to be in that game fully prepared. ....not on the sidelines pondering the possibilities as the numbers roll by. Those of us that trade the First Frame for a living can get lazy and comfortable at all the nice swing trends that usually appear as price tries and fails to discover the True Trend in early going. Then a day like this comes along and gives you a jolt: the best trades are, indeed, sometimes the breakouts.
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