Fri Apr 30 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210430

 

Short 5 MNQ 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, 13878.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, 13891.25, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, +9.5, 

Short 10 MNQ 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13923.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, 13924.25, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, +3.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 

Short 10 MNQ 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.75, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, 13948.0, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, +4.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, 13949.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, 13898.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

 

Total MNQ +32.5

 

Although not as brutally challenging as yesterday, today offered no gimmie's at the turns either, nor was there any classic long entry model to work from for riding the first trend up to and through the gap close.  About the best I can say is that I did not suffer two losing days in a row, and so avoided spending this coming Monday's early action in the simulator box for the Behavior Governor that is triggers by two days in a row of net losing trades.  

 

There's always next week....     and a good weekend to all...

 

Thur Apr 29 2021 Trade Signals

20210429 

Long 5 MNQ 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, 14007.0, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, 14005.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Long 5 MNQ 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, 14001.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13991.50, 13991.50, 13991.50, 13991.50, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,

Long 5 MNQ 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, 13982.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Long 5 MNQ 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, 13980.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, 13957.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 10 MNQ 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13925.75, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, 13927.50, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Long 5MNQ 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, 13933.5, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25,

Long 1 RTY  2295.5, -0.9

Long 10 MNQ  13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.0, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, 13925.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,

Long 10 MNQ 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75, 13924.75,  -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Short 5 MNQ 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, 13936.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,

Short 5 MNQ 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,

Short 10 MNQ 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13941.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, 13940.75, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +6.0, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, +27.50, 

 

Total MNQ -33.75

Total RTY -0.9

 

There are often early entry signals from structure to capture the initial trend thrust of the first frame.  Today, I couldn't find that entry, even though it was right in front of me in a contract that I lost focus in.   And so found myself buying on bounces, unsuccessfully about half the way down... until a big bounce at the end of the frame finally gave me a short entry I could sink my teeth into.  

 

In the early going, usually before you brain is even warmed up, the action around the ORB can be critical.  And you have to stay alert as to what contract it might be showing up in, because it may only appear in one.   

 

Today, my early focus and trade calls to sell the MNQ and the RTY on some modest structure recovery both alternated in coming close...  close enough that I ignored the ES/MES contract altogether....which of course was the only one that offered the classic Return-to-the ORB trade, that the bread-n-butter pattern entry in the book Pivots and Patterns.  

 

To my chagrin on this frustrating, losing day, one of my students took that ES short opportunity, which was so clean an in-trend play that it became a one-and-done for him.

 

Apparently, my students just are not trained well enough to alert me of my own stuff when I fail to see it....ha!   Maybe have to add that as a Chapter 11 to my 10 part course...   'When I the instructor doesn't do as he says...  wake him up.....

Wed Apr 28 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210428

 

Long 5 MNQ 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, 13888.25, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13920.75,  13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25

Short 5 MNQ 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, -4.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, 13943.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, 13963.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, 

Short 10 MNQ  13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13970.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 10 MNQ 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13928.75, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, 13929.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 10 MNQ 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.00, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, 13914.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Long 10 MNQ 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13883.75, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, 13884.25, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 10 MNQ 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.0, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, 13881.5, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, +24.75, 

 

Total MNQ +122.50 

 

A rough road just to get back to about what I started with in the first place...  ...and it should have been a one-and-done day from the get-go.    

 

A simple exit rule could have kept me into that long position picked up just points above the initial crash low of the 1st Trend plunge.    ...and that management rule..?    Hold into complexity.   

 

Why did I give it up rather than doing that simple exercise that would have given me the 1st frame goal on that first position?   ...I've asked myself that a few hundred times already today...  and can come up with nothing better than "I couldn't resist running my stop up to protect the first 20 points too quickly after those 20 points arrived."  So resist it next time.   ...easier said then done..     

 

Was a similar habit in the RTY where I'd rush to protect 2 pts in early profits, only to get stopped out just before the position would have gone to +6 ...or more.   ..and these days, that would usually mean much more.   

 

But here is the more important observation, by far.  Is it the money in those profits that you are actually trying to protect when rushing up a protective stop-loss too fast?    No...  rather it is the anxiety of possible embarrassment when a position that puts a couple hundred dollars of paper in your pocket gets stop-d out at break-even.. or less.    ...and nothing reeks of stupidity more.    ...except that of rushing up your stop-loss too quickly and missing out of the entire 2nd trend move in the first place.   

 

Study the internal character profiles that rise to the surface while in the throngs of a trade in the little book, True Self, companion to the technical book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, both available at online book stores.

Tues Apr 27 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210427

 

Short 5 MNQ 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, 14020.25, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, 13992.0, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, 

Long 5 M2K,  2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, 2291.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7,

Long 5 MNQ 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, 13983.75, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,

Long 5 M2K 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, 2289.0, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1, +6.1,

Long 5 MNQ 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, 13970.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, 13920.25, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, +19.75, 

Short 5 MNQ  13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, 13960.50, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75, +23.75

 

Total M2K +27.0

Total MNQ +160.0

Mon Apr 26 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210426 

 

Short 5 MNQ 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, 13938.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75 

Short 5 MNQ 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, 13950.0, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25, +19.25  

Short 5 MNQ 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, 13939.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25 

Short 10 MNQ 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.75, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, 13943.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,+5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13962.25,  13962.25, 13962.25, 13962.25, 13962.25, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5, +11.5 

Long 5 MNQ 13946.75,  13946.75, 13946.75, 13946.75, 13946.75, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, 13947.75, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0,  

Short 5 MNQ 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, 13981.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5 

Short 1 RTY 2295.3, -1.5 

Short 5 MNQ 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, 13988.0, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, +12.5, 

 

Total MNQ 226.25 

Total RTY -1.5

Fri Apr 23 Trade Signals & Journal

20210423

 

Short 5 MNQ 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25, 13820.25,+21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, 13823.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0, -3.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, 13825.5, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13836.25, 13836.25, 13836.25, 13836.25,  13836.25,  -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,  

Short 5 MNQ 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25, 13838.25,  -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0,  

Short 5 MNQ 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50, 13851.50,  +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, +17.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, 13826.75, +15.75,  +15.75, +15.75, +15.75, +15.75, 

 

Total MNQ +121.25

 

Underestimating the underlying strength in the bull has always been a weakness.  It always seems understandable when bears rip through one level of support after another... after all, doesn't it just seem like the inevitable weight of gravity finally having its way..    But for the bulls, where does this rocket fuel for these Moon shots come from?   

 

One clue today was the scar left from the sudden news collapse at the very highs of the previous day.  Price wants the total recovery of these air pockets when the underlying trend is still in play.   Since the day often starts out in swings around the ORB, good gains can be made just playing those swings.   But the thing to avoid at all costs is attempting to step in front of the rocket ship as begins to leave Earth's gravity.  For thinking that it's done enough as those previous highs are approached denies how much power the thrusts can bring when there is simply no further atmosphere to contain it...   and on she goes... 

...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Apr 22 2021 Trade Signals

20210422

 

Long 5 MNQ 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, 13872.75, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Long 5 MNQ  13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, 13858.25, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, +21.5, 

Short 5 MNQ  13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, 13912.25, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, 13914.0, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 

Long 5 MNQ  13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, 13907.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short 1 RTY  2256.2, +3.1

 

Total MNQ  +67.5

Total RTY +3.1

Wed Apr 21 2021 Trade Signals & Journal

20210421 

 

Short 5 MNQ 13742.75, 13742.75, 13742.75, 13742.75, 13742.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13761.5, 13761.5, 13761.5, 13761.5, 13761.5, 13761.75, 13761.75, 13761.75, 13761.75, 13761.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, -4.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13777.5, 13777.5, 13777.5, 13777.5, 13777.5, 13777.75, 13777.75, 13777.75, 13777.75, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, 

Short 1 RTY 2198.6, -1.5 

Short 1 RTY 2212.0, -0.3 

Short 1 RTY 2212.2, -1.5 

Short 2 RTY 2216.1, 2216.1, +4.3, +4.3 

Short 1 RTY 2218.0, -1.4 

Short 1 RTY 2219.0, -1.5 

Short 5 MNQ 13846.25, 13846.25, 13846.25, 13846.25, 13846.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Short 5 MES 4147.0, 4147.0, 4147.0, 4147.0, 4147.0, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, 

 

Total MES -1.25 

Total MNQ -120 

Total RTY +2.4 

 

What bothers you most as a trader are not necessarily the stop-out losses you incur during the day. No, what is even worse are the trade signals either you fail to take, or those you try to take but miss by virtue of the speed with which price vacates your entry zone. 

 

In the first case, I passed on the bull 3-Bar ORB trade signal in the RTY because it had to travel 10 points just to reach the break out trigger. No fool would ever go for that... and yet, the RTY continued to move 50+ points after that break out price pattern was triggered.  Doh. 

 

The next two opportunities I missed were both in the MNQ. I missed an entry on a key buy on pullback opportunity by only a couple ticks, and being way too smart to chase it and accept a poor fill by a few points (no, I'm way to smart for that !), I just sat there and watched it go vertical thereafter more than 60 points before arriving at the Trend Check.  Double doh. 

 

The 2nd MNQ buy opportunity came on the pullback sell-off from that first bull explosion I missed.   But this 2nd one I was nowhere near getting filled with my price zone expectations. That 2nd one only went straight up for 110 points or so... triple doh.  And being frustrated at missing the pullback opps offering the real rewards, I doubled down further on my stupidity by trying to fade the momentum spikes.... all of which--except one small RTY trade--proved to be utterly pointless. ...and in retrospect, nothing could have been easier than the trades I failed to enter... Our charts always look so perfect in the rear view mirror.....

 

well, shake it off... lucky for me, there's always tomorrow.

Tues Apr 20 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210420

 

Short 5 MNQ 13908.75, 13908.75, 13908.75, 13908.75, 13908.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Short 10 MNQ 13914.75, 13914.75, 13914.75, 13914.75, 13914.75, 13915.25  +6.25, +6.25, +6.25, +6.25, +6.25,  +14.50, +14.50, +14.50, +14.50, +14.50, 

Long 5 MNQ 13897.0, 13897.0, 13897.0, 13897.0, 13897.0, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13893.75,  13893.75, 13893.75, 13893.75, 13893.75, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, 

Long 5 MNQ  13876.25, 13876.25, 13876.25, 13876.25, 13876.25, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13871.5, 13871.5, 13871.5, 13871.5, 13871.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13872.25, 13872.25, 13872.25, 13872.25, 13872.25, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, +4.0, 

Long 5 MNQ  13873.75, 13873.75, 13873.75, 13873.75, 13873.75,  -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75,

Long 5 MNQ 13867.5, 13867.5, 13867.5, 13867.5, 13867.5, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 

Long 10 MNQ 13860.0, 13860.0, 13860.0, 13860.0, 13860.0, 13862.0, 13862.0, 13862.0, 13862.0, 13862.0,  -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, -0.75, +8.0, +8.0, +8.0, +8.0, +8.0,  

Long 10 MNQ  13817.0, 13817.0, 13817.0, 13817.0, 13817.0, 13814.0, 13814.0, 13814.0, 13814.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,

Long 10 MNQ 13815.5, 13815.5, 13815.5, 13815.5, 13815.5, 13816.25, 13816.25, 13816.25, 13816.25, 13816.25, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, +8.25, +8.25, +8.25, +8.25, +8.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13803.75, 13803.75, 13803.75, 13803.75, 13803.75, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13788.25, 13788.25, 13788.25, 13788.25, 13788.25, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13722.0, 13722.0, 13722.0, 13722.0, 13722.0, +18.75, +18.75, +18.75,+18.75,+18.75,

 

Total MNQ +216.75

 

A painful of too many trades and too many small stop outs trying to hold for more complex moves.   But I stuck around until just after the 1st frame, and as the Noon hour approached, two big reversals finally did take place, with enough to give me my base goal.   

 

But all this is really irrelevant,  because I spotted,  but froze myself out from calling and taking the most important trade of the morning, a stop-n-reverse signal that would have produced the desired complex breakout, but in the opposite direction to the pullback buy-opps I had been ardently focused on just under the ORB.   

 

What does it take mentally to get your hat turned around and shake off a long series of signals in one direction in order to time a flipped switch into a breakout in the opposing direction?    A clear, objective mind, and the ability to surrender all trend prejudice for the clarity of the underlying signal that structure so often presents to you... just at the moment your frustration and commitment to the wrong signals are at their peak.   

 

And when the dust finally settles, and you're looking back at it all in your journal, you phrase it as clearly as possible so that on the smallest chance, you might be more able to take that trade in the weeks ahead...   as it will surely present itself.  

 

Mon Apr 19 2021 Trade Signals & Journal

20210419

 

Long 5 MNQ 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, 13985.25, +9.0, +9.0, +9.0, +9.0, +9.0, 

Long 5 MNQ 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, 13968.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, -3.5, 

Long 5 MNQ 13953.75, 13953.75, 13953.75, 13953.75, 13953.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13950.75, 13950.75, 13950.75, 13950.75, 13950.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,

Long 5 MNQ 13940.0,  13940.0, 13940.0, 13940.0, 13940.0, 13940.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, 13920.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75, -3.75,

Long 5 MNQ 13915.0, 13915.0, 13915.0, 13915.0, 13915.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 5 MNQ 13936.0,  13936.0,  13936.0,  13936.0,  13936.0, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, -5.5, 

Short 10 MNQ 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5,  -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, -1.5, 

Short 10 MNQ 13940.25,  13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.25, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5, 13940.5,+13.0, +13.0, +13.0, +13.0, +13.0,+23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, 

 

Total MNQ +90.0

 

The public looks to the news for the rationale behind market movements.   And indeed, it is surely a supply of energy to market structure.   But what if there is no news to account for the sudden appearance of a burst of energy?   The market needs no rationale, and indeed, the absence of news to market movement supports the premise that the market has an internal structure, and news simply helps flesh it out in its inevitable course towards structural fulfillment.    

 

Market wisdom in aphorism can be found the chapter headings of Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, attributed to my lovable mentor, Randolph Newman, and the wisdom of the ages as applied to the outrageous fortunes of trading can be found in the chapter headings of the companion book, True Self, as attributed to the great seer, Heraclitus.   ...both books available in inexpensive Kindle Editions on line at Amazon.com. 

 

...and a good trading week remaining to all....

 

Fri Apr 16 Trade Signals and Journal

20210416

 

Long 5 MNQ 13975.25, 13975.25, 13975.25, 13975.25, 13975.25, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5, -2.5,

Long 5 MNQ 13972.75, 13972.75, 13972.75, 13972.75, 13972.75, +24.0, +24.0, +24.0, +24.0, +24.0

Long 1 RTY 2252.8, -0.2

Long 1 RTY 2252.1, -1.5

Long 1 RTY 2250.5, -0.2

Long 5 MNQ  13958.75, 13958.75, 13958.75, 13958.75, 13958.75, +30.25, +30.25, +30.25, +30.25, +30.25,

Long 5 MNQ 13989.75,  13989.75, 13989.75, 13989.75, 13989.75, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13988.75, 13988.75, 13988.75, 13988.75, 13988.75, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0,

 

Total MNQ +252.5

Total RTY -1.9

ValhallaFutures uses target zones for entries, and so focuses on prices reaching those zones, then retreating from them.   That allows an entry method of either having a Limit order there waiting to catch a price, or a trailing stop that ratchets closer as price enters the zone....or both.   An example of this technique was captured in a video on the TickTec.com site, under the menu titled Trade Room.    

 

Often it takes more than one entry to capture the turn from these opportunity zones, as I have a practice of trying get a stop-loss order near break even after entry, as prices retreat back into the favored trend direction from the price rejection of these zones.   But if your're trading the Nasdaq, as I prefer to do, the action can be quite whippy at these turns, even though the entry zone is being generally maintained.     ....welcome to futures trading....   

 

In all, a good week behind us, except for an especially nasty Monday...     ...and a good weekend to all...

Thur Apr 15 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210415

 

Long 5 MNQ 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0,+18.75, +18.75, +18.75, +18.75, +18.75, 

Short 10 MNQ 13994.0,  13994.0, 13994.0, 13994.0, 13994.0, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 10 MNQ 13997.75,  13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25,+7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 

Short 5 MES 4157.75,  4157.75, 4157.75, 4157.75, 4157.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75

Short 5 MNQ 13999.75,  13999.75, 13999.75, 13999.75, 13999.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25

Short 15 MNQ 14005.0,  14005.0, 14005.0, 14005.0, 14005.0, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25

 

Total MES +18.75

Total MNQ +195.0

 

Fading the first trend of the day will usually produce the best swing opportunity of the morning about 80% of the time.   This simple statistic comes from the average occurrence of the Test-n-Reject Day Model to be about that same percentage.   Sounds easy then... right?  Just fade the first trend of the day and you're betting with the house.   But the index futures are so very highly leveraged that picking the wrong place in that first trend to capture your fade can put your purse into negative territory even if you landed on one of the Test-n-Reject day models successfully.  

 

You keep one eye on momentum climax, one eye out for the arrival of divergence in the established leadership, one eye on the clock for the Time Markers, and one....   wait , that's way too many eyes for any one trader to have in the front or the back of his head.    So....you patiently await for the Technical Event Concepts of your Trade Plan to appear, and take those with the prescribed default Stop-Loss allowed to them...    and after being stopped out once or twice, but still enough cash arrows left in your total quiver, go after them again until the appraised end-of-trend begins to produce  the swing you might have been looking for.     

 

Too bad it can't be more precise than that...   But trading is dumb.   Analysis belongs in the training mode, and once models have proven to  be effective in, say some 65 to 75% of the time, Entry Models are basically taken on faith that their long history of success will prove smarter than the real time efforts of your Analyst, and worthy of being taken again, even after stop-outs, to the constant annoyance of your Accountant.... who still cannot figure out why it is you're trading futures in the first place.  

 

To hear more of the adventures and travails of the Analyst, the Accountant and the Trader, I refer you to the short little Kindle Book on line at Amazon.com, entitled True Self, by the same author of the technical support book to this trade room, Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades.    ...and I wish good trading to all...

Wed Apr 14 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210414

 

Short 2 YM 33714, 33717, -9, +12

Short 1 RTY 2260.1, -1.1

Short 2 RTY 2260.7, 2260.5, -1.5, -1.5

Short 5 MES 4139.75,  4139.75, 4139.75, 4139.75, 4139.75, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Short 1 YM 33749, -9

Short 2 RTY 2267.7, 2267.8, +7.0, +4.2 

Long 5 MNQ 13934.5,  13934.5, 13934.5, 13934.5, 13934.5, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, -4.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13918.25, 13918.25, 13918.25, 13918.25, 13918.25,+34.75, +34.75, +34.75, +34.75, +34.75, 

 

Total MES -10.0

Total MNQ +152.5,  

Total YM -6

Total RTY +7.1

 

The first trend of the day is the best one to fade.  Emotionally, it's the more difficult.  And initial heat in the RTY had to be overcome with repeated entries..      But to complicate things further, what if the NQ and the RTY have first trends in the opposite directions?   Bifurcation, or 'versus play', as we call this obstinate action, adds a special layer of adversity to trading all its own.    And today found me shorting the RTY while buying the MNQ.   When such opposing trend trades come exactly at the same time, we call this being in a 'Screwball'.   ...and it takes an extra bit of concentration to get your head around it.   Imagine a pitcher in baseball be allowed to throw two balls at once...  and add to that, a pitcher with the ability to throw opposing curve pitches in opposite directions...  and you might get the level of concentration it sometimes takes to handle managing two such futures trades simultaneously..     Both pitches seldom work out for you if you hit them both with your bat on the same swing.    But if the profits of one exceed the losses of the other, they let you take first base...  

...and good trading the rest of the week to all...   

 

Tues Apr 13 2021 Trades and Journal

20210413 

Long 1 RTY 2216.5, -1.4

Long 2 RTY 2215.0, 2215.0, +3.0, -1.1

Short 5 MNQ 13944.50, 13944.50, 13944.50, 13944.50, 13944.50, +16.75, +16.75, +16.75, +16.75, +16.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13901.25, 13901.25, 13901.25, 13901.25, 13901.25,+14.0, +14.0, +14.0, +14.0, +14.0, 

 

Total MNQ +153.75

Total RTY +0.5 

 

I can still remember the sinking feeling I use to face when approaching the next day after a losing day.   But the best policy is to depend on your Trade Plan and execute it as if your memory has been wiped.   ....easier said than done, unless of course your MIB-Tommy Lee Jones Neuralyzer is fully charged, and you remember to wipe your mind clear in the first place...   

 

Short of that, you just have to trade like Rumpelstiltskin and get on with it.  And although I clearly balked at the first signal, an ES short opp, (which was a nice winner, without me) I somehow managed to wake up in time for the first RTY long opp (which I lost on a full default stop-out !), and was ok from there on.     

 

Because, you see, the consequences of a second day of losing trades in a row means that I have to begin the following day in the penalty box of trade simulator to begin with on the third day, right from the get-go--not an easy thing to announce to the trade room as trade room moderator..... ha !   Doesn't exactly inspire confidence...     

All these cash stop-out limits and behavior governor stop-out limits can be found in the last chapter of the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, available online in Kindle format.   

Now... to get on with the rest of the week.... 

Mon Apr 12 2021 Trade Signals & Journal

20210412 

 

Long 1 RTY 2234.4, -0.4 

Long 5 MNQ 13782.0, 13782.0, 13782.0, 13782.0, 13782.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, -2.0, 

Long 5 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Long 5 13766.0, 13766.0, 13766.0, 13766.0, 13766.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 5 13755.5 13755.5 13755.5 13755.5 13755.5 -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Long 5 137750.5, 137750.5, 137750.5, 137750.5, 137750.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5, 

Short 5 13776.0, 13776.0, 13776.0, 13776.0, 13776.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 13784.0, 13784.0, 13784.0, 13784.0, 13784.0, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 13785.5, 13785.5, 13785.5, 13785.5, 13785.5, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, 

Short 5 13790.50, 13790.50, 13790.50, 13790.50, 13790.50, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, -2.75, 

Short 5 13792.0, 13792.0, 13792.0, 13792.0, 13792.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, 13774.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, 

Long 5 MNQ 13671.5, 13671.5, 13671.5, 13671.5, 13671.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

 

Total MNQ -172.5 

Total RTY -0.4 

 

A nice winning streak hits the skids today. Finding the 1st trend down to buy would have returned just the opposite results...but found the initial mini-crash in the NQ a bit too hot to handle. And when you miss the 1st trend fade from the long side, you tend to treat the 2nd trend back up as a pullback to that 1st trend. But 2nd trends are where the surprises hide, and this one was no exception, as the right short entry was elusive as well. 

 

Trade plans are created with Behavior Governors. Limit the number of trades, and/or the maximum $$ loss allowed, or some number of losing trades in a row that are losers. ....and push further trading off until tomorrow. Learn to love both your cash stop-outs and your behavior stop-outs. They leave you plenty to trade with on the following day.

Fri Apr 9 2021 Trade Signal Summary

2020409

 

Long 5 MNQ 13660.5,  13660.5, 13660.5, 13660.5, 13660.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, +23.5, 

Short 5 MNQ 13719.75, 13719.75, 13719.75, 13719.75, 13719.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Short 5 MNQ 13725.75, 13725.75, 13725.75, 13725.75, 13725.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13727.0,  13727.0, 13727.0, 13727.0, 13727.0, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, 

Short  5 MNQ 13739.75, 13739.75, 13739.75, 13739.75, 13739.75, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25, -1.25,

Short 5 MNQ 13744.75,  13744.75, 13744.75, 13744.75, 13744.75, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, 

Short 1 RTY  2242.8, +3.4

 

Total MNQ +105.0

Total RTY +3.4

 

Thur Apr 8 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210408

 

Short 5 MNQ 13753.75,  13753.75, 13753.75, 13753.75, 13753.75, +23.25, +23.25, +23.25, +23.25, +23.25, 

Short 5 MES 4080.5, 4080.5, 4080.5, 4080.5, 4080.5, -2.75. -2.75. -2.75. -2.75. -2.75

Short 1 RTY 2219.0, -1.1

Short 10 MNQ 13733.0, 13733.0, 13733.0, 13733.0, 13733.0, 13735.0, 13735.0, 13735.0, 13735.0, 13735.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0, +5.0,

Short 5 MNQ 13737.0,  13737.0, 13737.0, 13737.0, 13737.0, +16.5, +16.5, +16.5, +16.5, +16.5, 

 

Total MES -13.75

Total MNQ +197.5

Total RTY -1.1

Wed Apr 7 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210407

 

Long 1 YM 33313, +27

Short 5 MNQ 13613.5, 13613.5, 13613.5, 13613.5, 13613.5, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Long 5 MNQ 13600.5, 13600.5, 13600.5, 13600.5, 13600.5, +13.75, +13.75, +13.75, +13.75, +13.75, 

Long 1 RTY  2247.8, -0.8

Long 1 RTY 2231.7, -0.8

Long 1 RTY 2230.5, -0.8

Long 5 MNQ 13584.5, 13584.5, 13584.5, 13584.5, 13584.5, +12.0, +12.0, +12.0, +12.0, +12.0,

Long 1 RTY 2224.1, -1.1

Long 5 MNQ 13580.25,  13580.25, 13580.25, 13580.25, 13580.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Long 5 MNQ  13565.50, 13565.50, 13565.50, 13565.50, 13565.50, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

Total  MNQ +208.75

Total YM +27 

Total RTY -3.5

 

One of the extreme challenges in trading recent Index Futures action is what some would call divergence.   But that's not quite the right term.  Bifurcation is closer, as the strength in one index, like the NQ, just adds more selling weakness to the RTY, and/or the Dow component indices, like the ES and the YM.  It's like watching the behavior of two opposing magnets repel each other.   

 

And just as you might expect, extreme climax sell signals often up in the stronger just when the weaker is offering the same, but for long positions.   Thus, you might end up, as we did for a few minutes both long and short in opposing directions in two different indices.   

 

And you might also like to think, that this should work, and that they return to some more relative balance, working back towards each other.    ....but it seldom works out that way.    

 

We call this obstinacy 'vice-a-versus play'.   Or just 'versus play', for short.   And it's most typical these days between the RTY and the NQ, two of my favorite trading vehicles...   but not so much on days like this..     

 

 

Tues Apr 6 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210406

Short 5 MNQ 13589.75,  13589.75, 13589.75, 13589.75, 13589.75, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Short 10 MNQ 13594.25,  13594.25, 13594.25, 13594.25, 13594.25, 13592.75, 13592.75, 13592.75, 13592.75, 13592.75, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, -0.25, 

Short 5 MNQ 13593.75, 13593.75, 13593.75, 13593.75, 13593.75, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 MES  4072.25, 4072.25, 4072.25, 4072.25, 4072.25, +0.75, +0.75, +0.75, +0.75, +0.75,

Long 5 MNQ 13568.0, 13568.0, 13568.0, 13568.0, 13568.0,+10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, 

Long 1 RTY  2266.3, +1.9

Total MES +3.75

Total MNQ +11.25

Total  RTY +1.9

After several sustained Persistent Trend Days Up, today's consolidation was extremely choppy.  And the absence of any news anticipation, there was repeated shifting leadership, and extreme Versus action.   Some days are better for trading than others...  

 

Mon Apr 5 2021 Trade Signal Summary

20210405

Long 1 RTY 2265.5, -0.5

Short 10 MNQ 13494.75, 13494.75, 13494.75, 13494.75, 13494.75, 13494.25, 13494.25, 13494.25, 13494.25, 13494.25, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -1.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, 

Short 5 MES  4050.5, 4050.5, 4050.5, 4050.5, 4050.5, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75, 

Short 10 MNQ  13522.0, 13522.0, 13522.0, 13522.0, 13522.0, 13522.25, 13522.25, 13522.25, 13522.25, 13522.25, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, -5.0, 

Short  10 MES 4055.75, 4055.75, 4055.75, 4055.75, 4055.75, 4058.0, 4058.0, 4058.0, 4058.0, 4058.0, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, -1.50, 

Short 10 MNQ  13537.5, 13537.5, 13537.5, 13537.5, 13537.5, 13537.25, 13537.25, 13537.25, 13537.25, 13537.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +15.25, +6.25, +6.25, +6.25, +6.25, +6.25, 

Total MES -27.5

Total MNQ +52.5

Total RTY -0.5

Fri Apr 2 2021 Good Friday, Mkt Closed.

Thur Apr 1 2021 Trade Signals and Journal

20210401

 

Short 5 MNQ 13299.25,  13299.25, 13299.25, 13299.25, 13299.25, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, +10.0, 

Long 10 MNQ  13266.25, 13266.25, 13266.25, 13266.25, 13266.25, 13264.50, 13264.50, 13264.50, 13264.50, 13264.50,+8.75, +8.75, +8.75, +8.75, +8.75,+20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, +20.0, 

Total MNQ +193.75

 

I want to wish all a Blessed Passover, and Good Friday, and a Joyful Easter Sunday for this, a most difficult year for so many...and for so much of our great country.   We will never be united around an absence of integrity to our election and immigration systems, nor to socialist means of finance and expenditure.  Let's all take a moment to remember how the United States of America came to be the greatest country in the history of recorded civilization, and by what standards and principles it will take to maintain that..... and ask for a continuance in these troubled times of what must have been the indispensable ingredient to that great accomplishment--that of the invisible guiding hand of Providence Himself.  Peace and True Freedom to all.   They remain inseparable.