20210415
Long 5 MNQ 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0, 13954.0,+18.75, +18.75, +18.75, +18.75, +18.75,
Short 10 MNQ 13994.0, 13994.0, 13994.0, 13994.0, 13994.0, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, 13996.75, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -4.5, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25, -2.25,
Short 10 MNQ 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.75, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25, 13997.25,+7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, +7.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25, -3.25,
Short 5 MES 4157.75, 4157.75, 4157.75, 4157.75, 4157.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75, +3.75
Short 5 MNQ 13999.75, 13999.75, 13999.75, 13999.75, 13999.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25
Short 15 MNQ 14005.0, 14005.0, 14005.0, 14005.0, 14005.0, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14007.75, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, 14011.25, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25, +28.25
Total MES +18.75
Total MNQ +195.0
Fading the first trend of the day will usually produce the best swing opportunity of the morning about 80% of the time. This simple statistic comes from the average occurrence of the Test-n-Reject Day Model to be about that same percentage. Sounds easy then... right? Just fade the first trend of the day and you're betting with the house. But the index futures are so very highly leveraged that picking the wrong place in that first trend to capture your fade can put your purse into negative territory even if you landed on one of the Test-n-Reject day models successfully.
You keep one eye on momentum climax, one eye out for the arrival of divergence in the established leadership, one eye on the clock for the Time Markers, and one.... wait , that's way too many eyes for any one trader to have in the front or the back of his head. So....you patiently await for the Technical Event Concepts of your Trade Plan to appear, and take those with the prescribed default Stop-Loss allowed to them... and after being stopped out once or twice, but still enough cash arrows left in your total quiver, go after them again until the appraised end-of-trend begins to produce the swing you might have been looking for.
Too bad it can't be more precise than that... But trading is dumb. Analysis belongs in the training mode, and once models have proven to be effective in, say some 65 to 75% of the time, Entry Models are basically taken on faith that their long history of success will prove smarter than the real time efforts of your Analyst, and worthy of being taken again, even after stop-outs, to the constant annoyance of your Accountant.... who still cannot figure out why it is you're trading futures in the first place.
To hear more of the adventures and travails of the Analyst, the Accountant and the Trader, I refer you to the short little Kindle Book on line at Amazon.com, entitled True Self, by the same author of the technical support book to this trade room, Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades. ...and I wish good trading to all...