20220315
Long 3 MNQ 13135.5, 13135.5, 13135.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 13095.75,13095.75, 13095.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Long 3 MNQ 13093.5, 13093.5, 13093.5, -1.75, -1.75, -1.75,
Short 3 MNQ 13160.5, 13160.5, 13160.5, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 13159.25, 13159.25, 13159.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 13180.0, 13180.0, 13180.0, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 13189.75, 13189.75, 13189.75, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 13193.25, 13193.25, 13193.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
Short 3 MNQ 13239.25, 13239.25, 13239.25, -5.25, -5.25, -5.25,
PM Trades:
Long 3 MNQ 13294.5, 13294.5, 13294.5, +55.25, +55.25, +55.25,
Long 3 MNQ 13289.75, 13289.75, 13289.75, +37.5, +37.5, +37.5,
Total MNQ +147.25
If the 1st Trend of the day tends to be false, then the 2nd Trend direction is more likely to be the true trend. "The 2nd Trend is where the surprises hide." Perhaps this, more than any other, is the most valuable lesson for 1st trend trades from the book Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, (available online). Or in the more folksy terms my mentor from the New Orleans Cotton Exchange use to say, "When it goes down fast, it seldom lasts." --Randolf Newman
So what happens to the trader when, reaching that 1st trend bear collapse buy-signal, he misses the entry, or in my case today, tightens his stop too much, and like Moses striking the rock an extra time in loss of faith, gets bumped from this important 1st trend direction fade just before the collapse reverses, and launches into the anticipated 2nd trend advance? He is left a bit miffed, frustrated, and even angry, and can be led into fading the more likely true 2nd trend into a further--and even more extensive--set of losses. Thus was the unfortunate beginning to my trading this day, upon a Test-and-Reject day model outcome.
But all is not lost on such days, whether on a Persistent Trend, or a Test-n-Reject that becomes persistent in behavior. Because at some time in the Midday or Last Hour Frame, a phenom we call "Last Chance Texaco" often appears. And both my afternoon trades, although they might have looked like proverbial 'piano drops' to the less familiar, were, in fact, based on this afternoon model pattern. And today, did produce two very clean entries that I took without even a moment's threat to a tight initial stop.
Read about this, and the general concept of Day Models in the book, Pivots, Patterns and Intraday Swing Trades, from Wiley Publishing, online.