20141009
Short 2 TF 1089.0, 1088.6, +3.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1084.3, -0.3
Long 1 YM 16863, -5
Long 2 TF 1078.9, 1078.9, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 4013.25, 4012.25, +8.0, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +5.4
Trading in isolation can be a difficult thing. On the one hand, you need concentration and focus. That's compromised by company. On the other, a view of trade handling by others can help get you out of your own head when you feel a little stuck. "If they can do that, so can I" is not a bad conclusion to have on the way to improving on your own habits. Thankfully, I have my students. And many of them are better traders than I. Find a mentor, not so as to lose your independence of thought, but occasionally, if nothing else, to help you get unstuck when the narrow confines of your own thoughts have become too cramped.
Wed Oct 8 Trade Summary
20141008
Long 1 TF 1072.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1072.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1071.6, 1071.1, -1.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1069.5, 1069.5, +0.7, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3948.0, 3948.0, +5.0, -1.75
Long 3 NQ 3946.25, 3946.5, 3945.0, +9.0, +5.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1071.8, 1071.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1067.1, 1067.5, +2.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1070.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3942.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1064.6, 1064.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1062.7, 1061.6, -0.0, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1060.8, +2.8
Total NQ +18.25
Total TF +8.3
Long 1 TF 1072.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1072.9, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1071.6, 1071.1, -1.4, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1069.5, 1069.5, +0.7, -0.2, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3948.0, 3948.0, +5.0, -1.75
Long 3 NQ 3946.25, 3946.5, 3945.0, +9.0, +5.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1071.8, 1071.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1067.1, 1067.5, +2.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1070.7, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3942.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1064.6, 1064.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1062.7, 1061.6, -0.0, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1060.8, +2.8
Total NQ +18.25
Total TF +8.3
Tues Oct 7 Trade Summary
20141007
Long 2 NQ 3975.5, 3975.75, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1079.9, 1080.9, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1084.5, 1085.5, 1085.2, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1084.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3986.5, 3986.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, +2.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 4 TF 1081.2, 1081.2, 1080.3, 1080.8, -0.0, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Long 2 NQ 3975.5, 3975.75, +5.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1079.9, 1080.9, -1.4, -0.4
Short 3 TF 1084.5, 1085.5, 1085.2, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1084.9, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3986.5, 3986.5, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, 3982.5, +2.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 4 TF 1081.2, 1081.2, 1080.3, 1080.8, -0.0, -0.0, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +3.6
Mon Oct 6 Trades & Journal
20141006
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.1, -0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1102.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1101.7, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 4034.0, 4033.75, +2.0, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.0, +0.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1099.7, 1099.4, +0.7, -0.1
Long 1 YM 16932, +17
Short 1 YM 16962, +8
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.6, +1.0, +0.6
Total YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.8
There are two questions we ask ourselves at the major opportunities of the 1st Frame. "Where was your head at the turn?" And, "where was your Trade Plan at the opportunity"? Today my head was ok, and did catch pretty much the basic entry models, but my Trade Plan missed most of the big fish opportunities. So it is with trading. The profits you miss usually bother you more than the losses you take. But no complaints...as today, the smaller profits did add up. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.1, -0.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1102.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1101.7, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 4034.0, 4033.75, +2.0, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.0, +0.8, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1099.7, 1099.4, +0.7, -0.1
Long 1 YM 16932, +17
Short 1 YM 16962, +8
Long 2 TF 1092.1, 1092.6, +1.0, +0.6
Total YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +6.8
There are two questions we ask ourselves at the major opportunities of the 1st Frame. "Where was your head at the turn?" And, "where was your Trade Plan at the opportunity"? Today my head was ok, and did catch pretty much the basic entry models, but my Trade Plan missed most of the big fish opportunities. So it is with trading. The profits you miss usually bother you more than the losses you take. But no complaints...as today, the smaller profits did add up. Stay focused.
Fri Oct 3 Trades & Journal
20141003
Short 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 16841, 16840, -9, -10
Short 2 NQ 4009.25, 4008.00, +4.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4014.75, 4014.75, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, +0.4, +0.9
Long 2 YM 16866, 15884, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1101.0, 1101.0, 1100.7, +0.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.7, +1.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 16846, 16846, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1098.3, 1098.3, +0.7, +2.6
Long 1 YM 16833, +20
Long 1 TF 1099.6, +2.0
Total YM -13
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +7.8
Using multiple time frames is science for some. It is not in my trade plan. I find trades in-trend in one time frame can be very profitable as counter trend trades in another, and have come to the conclusion that most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which trend the market was in...but wasn't. So instead, we position into Trade Entry Models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and let the trend be discovered with us in it. But today, the buy signals from the daily frame would have served me better if I had respected them as some kind of filter and was more cautious about early shorts and more aggressive about 1st pump breakouts. As for now, I see no other than a subjective filter to place in the way, and those are seldom of any consistent value from day to day. So I only note all this as an observation and see no modification to Trade Plan at this time. Change the Plan slowly, cautiously, even reluctantly, although modify it you must. It doesn't earn the respect of discipline unless it remains a constant.
Short 2 TF 1097.3, 1097.6, -0.8, +0.7
Short 2 YM 16841, 16840, -9, -10
Short 2 NQ 4009.25, 4008.00, +4.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1100.8, 1100.6, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 NQ 4014.75, 4014.75, -3.0, -3.0
Long 2 TF 1102.0, 1102.0, +0.4, +0.9
Long 2 YM 16866, 15884, +7, -7
Long 2 TF 1101.0, 1101.0, 1100.7, +0.7, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1099.6, 1099.7, +1.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 16846, 16846, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1098.3, 1098.3, +0.7, +2.6
Long 1 YM 16833, +20
Long 1 TF 1099.6, +2.0
Total YM -13
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +7.8
Using multiple time frames is science for some. It is not in my trade plan. I find trades in-trend in one time frame can be very profitable as counter trend trades in another, and have come to the conclusion that most of the money that is lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which trend the market was in...but wasn't. So instead, we position into Trade Entry Models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and let the trend be discovered with us in it. But today, the buy signals from the daily frame would have served me better if I had respected them as some kind of filter and was more cautious about early shorts and more aggressive about 1st pump breakouts. As for now, I see no other than a subjective filter to place in the way, and those are seldom of any consistent value from day to day. So I only note all this as an observation and see no modification to Trade Plan at this time. Change the Plan slowly, cautiously, even reluctantly, although modify it you must. It doesn't earn the respect of discipline unless it remains a constant.
Thurs Oct 2 Trade Summary
20141002
Long 2 YM 16992, 16993, +7, +20
Long 2 TF 1082.7, 1082.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3971.75, 3971.75, +2.0, +7.0
Long 3 TF 1081.8, 1081.8, 1081.4, +1.0, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1078.1, 1078.2, +1.0, +1.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +5.9
Long 2 YM 16992, 16993, +7, +20
Long 2 TF 1082.7, 1082.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3971.75, 3971.75, +2.0, +7.0
Long 3 TF 1081.8, 1081.8, 1081.4, +1.0, +1.5, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1078.1, 1078.2, +1.0, +1.7
Total YM +27
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +5.9
Wed Oct 1 Trades & Journal
20141001
Long 2 TF 1089.3, 1089.0, -.5, +1.0
Long 3 NQ 4012.5, 4012.5, 4011.5, +2.0, -3.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16828, 16831, +10, +14
Short 1 TF 1088.2, +1.0
Long 2 YM 16795, 16797, +7, +20
Short 2 ES 1951.5, 1951.75, +1.25, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16821, +20
Long 1 TF 1085.4, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1089.8, -0.6
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +71
Total TF +2.2
A heavier reliance on YM entry models of late, partly due to the fuzzier, more whippy action of the TF as it overrides or fails to complete the entry models of the Trade Plan. This just reminds me the importance of
being ready to trade any of the 4 stock indices followed, included the least desirable of all, the ES. Next thing to consider in breakout models is adding in a version of the breakout model most recently added to the Plan. If it's a fair observation that price unfolds more quickly on the bear side than usually on the bull side, then breakout models that may need additional filtering in the bull side might break far more cleanly on the bear and must be weighed in if the daily trend of this market is indeed turning to the bear. Stay focused.
Long 2 TF 1089.3, 1089.0, -.5, +1.0
Long 3 NQ 4012.5, 4012.5, 4011.5, +2.0, -3.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16828, 16831, +10, +14
Short 1 TF 1088.2, +1.0
Long 2 YM 16795, 16797, +7, +20
Short 2 ES 1951.5, 1951.75, +1.25, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16821, +20
Long 1 TF 1085.4, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1089.8, -0.6
Total ES +1.25
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +71
Total TF +2.2
A heavier reliance on YM entry models of late, partly due to the fuzzier, more whippy action of the TF as it overrides or fails to complete the entry models of the Trade Plan. This just reminds me the importance of
being ready to trade any of the 4 stock indices followed, included the least desirable of all, the ES. Next thing to consider in breakout models is adding in a version of the breakout model most recently added to the Plan. If it's a fair observation that price unfolds more quickly on the bear side than usually on the bull side, then breakout models that may need additional filtering in the bull side might break far more cleanly on the bear and must be weighed in if the daily trend of this market is indeed turning to the bear. Stay focused.
Tues Sep 30 Trades & Journal
20140930
Short 1 NQ 4042.25, +4.0
Long 1 YM 16067, +5
Long 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.3, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1105.9, +0.7, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 4027.25, 4027.25, 4027.25, +2.0, -2.0, -3.0
Short 1 ES 1968.5, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4039.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1107.0, 1107.2, +0.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1107.0, +2.2
Long 2 YM 16970, 16971, +29, +7
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +41
Total TF +3.7
Today can at least post to journal that I took the breakout model that was having so much trouble acting upon in recent posts. Granted it was in the NQ, and a 1-lot at that, but at least can say I've nudged myself a bit further down the road to that behavior change. Behavior changes are slow. Trading is fast. Keep the plan in front of you. Rehearse your actions ahead of time. If this, then that.... Stay determined.
Short 1 NQ 4042.25, +4.0
Long 1 YM 16067, +5
Long 2 TF 1106.3, 1106.3, +0.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1105.9, +0.7, -1.0
Long 3 NQ 4027.25, 4027.25, 4027.25, +2.0, -2.0, -3.0
Short 1 ES 1968.5, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4039.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1107.0, 1107.2, +0.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1107.0, +2.2
Long 2 YM 16970, 16971, +29, +7
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +41
Total TF +3.7
Today can at least post to journal that I took the breakout model that was having so much trouble acting upon in recent posts. Granted it was in the NQ, and a 1-lot at that, but at least can say I've nudged myself a bit further down the road to that behavior change. Behavior changes are slow. Trading is fast. Keep the plan in front of you. Rehearse your actions ahead of time. If this, then that.... Stay determined.
Mon Sep 29 Trades & Journal
20140929
Long 2 YM 16870, 16868, +17, +7
Short 1 NQ 4004.7, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1104.7, 1104.2, 1104.3, -0.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4022.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.8, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1110.0, 1110.3, 1110.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6
Short 3 YM 16931, 16931, 16931, +10, +10, +10
Short 2 TF 1113.6, 1113.7, +0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.1, 1111.7, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +54
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +1.7
For the fourth time in just the past few weeks, have failed to take a key breakout model in my Trade Plan. And today, added big to the pain by trying to fade that same breakout model, stubbornly unable to get my hat around to be in sync. Changing habits is not easy. And this particular model seems not to set off the important dinner bell whenever it approaches. The habit of fading into the thrust being far too ingrained into my trade behavior. This has to be fixed. In recent months, have successfully added one or two other breakout models into the Plan. And have continued taking them, even after occasional failure to produce profits. But this one requires more rehearsal, so I'll review again all the screen captures and go after more consideration and mental practice. Remain determined. Make the change. The market will never change for you. The only thing in life you can effectively change is yourself, no matter how tempting it is to think otherwise, no matter how hard change is to accomplish.
Long 2 YM 16870, 16868, +17, +7
Short 1 NQ 4004.7, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1104.7, 1104.2, 1104.3, -0.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4022.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1108.8, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1110.0, 1110.3, 1110.1, -0.7, -0.5, -0.6
Short 3 YM 16931, 16931, 16931, +10, +10, +10
Short 2 TF 1113.6, 1113.7, +0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1112.1, 1111.7, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +54
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +1.7
For the fourth time in just the past few weeks, have failed to take a key breakout model in my Trade Plan. And today, added big to the pain by trying to fade that same breakout model, stubbornly unable to get my hat around to be in sync. Changing habits is not easy. And this particular model seems not to set off the important dinner bell whenever it approaches. The habit of fading into the thrust being far too ingrained into my trade behavior. This has to be fixed. In recent months, have successfully added one or two other breakout models into the Plan. And have continued taking them, even after occasional failure to produce profits. But this one requires more rehearsal, so I'll review again all the screen captures and go after more consideration and mental practice. Remain determined. Make the change. The market will never change for you. The only thing in life you can effectively change is yourself, no matter how tempting it is to think otherwise, no matter how hard change is to accomplish.
Fri Sep 26 Trade Summary
20140926
Short 1 TF 1108.8, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1106.5, +1.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.6, 1105.0, +1.6, +0.7
Total TF +6.2
Short 1 TF 1108.8, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1105.9, 1106.5, +1.7, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1105.6, 1105.0, +1.6, +0.7
Total TF +6.2
Thurs Sep 25 Trades & Journal
20140925
Long 2 YM 17056, 17057, -6, -7
Long 3 TF 1114.2, 1114.2, 1114.0, -0.7, -1.0, +0.7
Long 3 NQ 4048.0, 4048.0, 4048.0, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 YM 17009, 17009, 17011, +7, -5, -6
Long 3 TF 1111.3, 1111.3, +0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.3, 1110.3, 1110.5, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 16998, 16998, 16999, -0, -0, -10
Long 2 TF 1108.2, 1108.2, 1108.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4025.25, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1968.25, 1968.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.6, +1.5, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1101.8, 1102.0, 1101.8, -0.2, +0.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1101.8, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.4, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1107.3, 1107.1, +1.1, +1.5
Total YM -27
Total NQ -6.0
Total ES +5.75
Total TF +2.5
Taking partial off to pay for the trade is key to survival when trading against support levels in a falling market, especially when finding a bounce to short into doesn't show up til the noon hour. Today, however, I added back the 2nd unit after partially out, so confident from yesterday's bullish action that today's early plunge was just a short term set back, and that made most of those otherwise break-even trades into losers, as the bounces from support levels simply failed to materialize. Several YM and NQ positions didn't even afford a big enough bounce to partial out. Since days like this are the exception rather than the rule, it is important not to make them stand out in your P&L as big holes in your week or in your month. If your Trade Plan depends on bigger intraday swings to profit from, then you only have to keep it together on such vertical days until the larger swing days return, as they far outnumber the vertical bull or bear 1st Frames. Stay cool. Stay focused.
I did, however, again miss an important breakdown inflection level that would have put me into the early collapsing trend way ahead of any attempts at counter-trend trading it. And to my added frustration, was exactly the entry model I have castigated myself over missing several times just recently on other such days. Personal change is difficult. I have started a screen capture catalog of examples of this entry model in an effort to refine the filter and give the Trader in me the skill to recognize the model and the confidence necessary to execute. The Analyst has long been pointing it out. The Account remains in doubt, and the Trader, a bit slow on the take to be sure, needs more rehearsal before successful implementation can be expected. Get busy.
Long 2 YM 17056, 17057, -6, -7
Long 3 TF 1114.2, 1114.2, 1114.0, -0.7, -1.0, +0.7
Long 3 NQ 4048.0, 4048.0, 4048.0, +2.0, -2.0, -2.0
Long 3 YM 17009, 17009, 17011, +7, -5, -6
Long 3 TF 1111.3, 1111.3, +0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.3, 1110.3, 1110.5, +0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 YM 16998, 16998, 16999, -0, -0, -10
Long 2 TF 1108.2, 1108.2, 1108.4, +0.7, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4025.25, 4025.25, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1968.25, 1968.25, +2.0, -0.25
Long 2 TF 1101.6, 1101.6, +1.5, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1101.8, 1102.0, 1101.8, -0.2, +0.7, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1101.8, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1101.7, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1106.4, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.75, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1107.3, 1107.1, +1.1, +1.5
Total YM -27
Total NQ -6.0
Total ES +5.75
Total TF +2.5
Taking partial off to pay for the trade is key to survival when trading against support levels in a falling market, especially when finding a bounce to short into doesn't show up til the noon hour. Today, however, I added back the 2nd unit after partially out, so confident from yesterday's bullish action that today's early plunge was just a short term set back, and that made most of those otherwise break-even trades into losers, as the bounces from support levels simply failed to materialize. Several YM and NQ positions didn't even afford a big enough bounce to partial out. Since days like this are the exception rather than the rule, it is important not to make them stand out in your P&L as big holes in your week or in your month. If your Trade Plan depends on bigger intraday swings to profit from, then you only have to keep it together on such vertical days until the larger swing days return, as they far outnumber the vertical bull or bear 1st Frames. Stay cool. Stay focused.
I did, however, again miss an important breakdown inflection level that would have put me into the early collapsing trend way ahead of any attempts at counter-trend trading it. And to my added frustration, was exactly the entry model I have castigated myself over missing several times just recently on other such days. Personal change is difficult. I have started a screen capture catalog of examples of this entry model in an effort to refine the filter and give the Trader in me the skill to recognize the model and the confidence necessary to execute. The Analyst has long been pointing it out. The Account remains in doubt, and the Trader, a bit slow on the take to be sure, needs more rehearsal before successful implementation can be expected. Get busy.
Wed Sep 24 Trades & Journal
20140924
Long 1 YM 16985, -7
Long 2 ES 1973.0, 1973.0, +1.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.7, 1110.7 1110.4, +0.7, -0.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1109.7, 1110.1, +2.2, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1109.3, 1109.4, +1.5, +0.5
Total YM -7
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +6.4
The ideal in trading, as they say, is to be completely lacking in emotion. Like Andy Warhol's famous line, "I want to be a machine." You're supposed to be able to forget immediately about a bad trade and also a previous bad day. If neither have triggered some maximum loss allowable level set aside as part of the money management rules in your Trade Plan, then the next trade or next day should come as easily as the previous, even if in recovery from losses. But of course, we are not machines, and attempts to pretend so are futile. But we can apply good discipline to our trading and accept the situation where the recovery from a losing day gets us at least back in sync, even if there were further trading opportunities left on the table once those previous losses were recovered. And so it was I found myself exiting the last position taken in the TF, with all the requisite features of being the probable low of the decline, in order to exit safely with all the money back from yesterday's losing day, with a little to spare. At least that kept me from 2 losing days in a row, something that throws me back to the simulator, and helps return the confidence that is normally required to Trade the Plan. Stay focused.
Long 1 YM 16985, -7
Long 2 ES 1973.0, 1973.0, +1.5, +2.5
Short 2 TF 1114.6, 1114.7, +1.3, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1110.7, 1110.7 1110.4, +0.7, -0.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1109.7, 1110.1, +2.2, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1109.3, 1109.4, +1.5, +0.5
Total YM -7
Total ES +3.0
Total TF +6.4
The ideal in trading, as they say, is to be completely lacking in emotion. Like Andy Warhol's famous line, "I want to be a machine." You're supposed to be able to forget immediately about a bad trade and also a previous bad day. If neither have triggered some maximum loss allowable level set aside as part of the money management rules in your Trade Plan, then the next trade or next day should come as easily as the previous, even if in recovery from losses. But of course, we are not machines, and attempts to pretend so are futile. But we can apply good discipline to our trading and accept the situation where the recovery from a losing day gets us at least back in sync, even if there were further trading opportunities left on the table once those previous losses were recovered. And so it was I found myself exiting the last position taken in the TF, with all the requisite features of being the probable low of the decline, in order to exit safely with all the money back from yesterday's losing day, with a little to spare. At least that kept me from 2 losing days in a row, something that throws me back to the simulator, and helps return the confidence that is normally required to Trade the Plan. Stay focused.
Tues Sep 23 Trades & Journal
20140923
Short 3 TF 1123.2, 1123.8, 1124.3, -1.4, -0.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1124.7, 1124.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, -0.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17071, 17072, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1126.1, -0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF -4.6
When your entry model is incomplete, or is conflicted by counter signals from other contracts or entry filters, it's best to just pass on the trade. But we are an arrogant lot, we humans. When after a winning streak of many days, we are just unwilling to think that pulling the trigger again despite such entry conflicts will produce anything but the expected profits. Today's signals were difficult using the means I usually employ, but I made a crucial mistake regarding the outcome of the early trend that not only could have been avoided but in reverse would have enjoyed participation. Study all your entries with care. The best lessons that come from trading are those that surprise you and cause you to lose. The improvement you seek is not in your winners. It's where you lose that hides the success and improvement you seek. Those technical 'situations' will return, as rare as they might have seemed at the time. Categorize and catalog them. Be ready for them when they return. All things that happen in the market are in context. Look for opposites. Most of the technical language of the markets can mean the opposite to its 'norm' when that context changes. The market teaches us the best places to trade from every day. Open your mind. Listen to the market. The market is its own authority on trend excursion and reversal. Each day its history is there in plain view, and so now are your assumptions and misunderstandings about it crystallized by every bad trade.
Short 3 TF 1123.2, 1123.8, 1124.3, -1.4, -0.8, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1124.7, 1124.7, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1125.5, 1125.5, -0.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 17071, 17072, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1126.1, -0.7
Total YM -10
Total TF -4.6
When your entry model is incomplete, or is conflicted by counter signals from other contracts or entry filters, it's best to just pass on the trade. But we are an arrogant lot, we humans. When after a winning streak of many days, we are just unwilling to think that pulling the trigger again despite such entry conflicts will produce anything but the expected profits. Today's signals were difficult using the means I usually employ, but I made a crucial mistake regarding the outcome of the early trend that not only could have been avoided but in reverse would have enjoyed participation. Study all your entries with care. The best lessons that come from trading are those that surprise you and cause you to lose. The improvement you seek is not in your winners. It's where you lose that hides the success and improvement you seek. Those technical 'situations' will return, as rare as they might have seemed at the time. Categorize and catalog them. Be ready for them when they return. All things that happen in the market are in context. Look for opposites. Most of the technical language of the markets can mean the opposite to its 'norm' when that context changes. The market teaches us the best places to trade from every day. Open your mind. Listen to the market. The market is its own authority on trend excursion and reversal. Each day its history is there in plain view, and so now are your assumptions and misunderstandings about it crystallized by every bad trade.
Mon Sep 22 Trades & Journal
20140922
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, -0.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.5, 1127.5, 1127.9, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4071.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4069.25, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 4065.5, 4065.75, +3.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1125.6, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.3, +1.4, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1125.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 17143, -8
Long 1 NQ 4050.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1123.9, 1123.9, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.2, -0.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.3, +0.7, +0.7
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4
It would be better for us all if Fed Chairman would not schedule speeches for the 10am ET hour. If their info pre-released or even simultaneously released, market participation would at least be more fair. Otherwise, the comments can dribble out and extend the effects. In any case, sticking to the Trade Plan can help keep you out of trouble, but might require some wider stp's. One of the key elements to exaggerated whiplash volatility is the ability to re-enter a trade if the trade model is still intact after a whiplash event extends beyond stp's. It takes some stomach to re-enter, but observations lead me to conclude that the model will return to expected behavior with the whiplash action behind you. Stay focused. Show conviction to the Trade Entry Models in your Plan. If they don't deserve the conviction to re-enter a position after such whiplash action, they don't deserve to be included in your Trade Plan.
Long 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.8, -0.5, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1127.5, 1127.5, 1127.9, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4071.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4069.25, +8.0
Long 2 NQ 4065.5, 4065.75, +3.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1126.6, 1125.6, -1.4, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1125.3, 1125.3, +1.4, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1125.4, -0.4
Long 1 YM 17143, -8
Long 1 NQ 4050.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1123.9, 1123.9, -0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.2, -0.3, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1123.3, 1123.3, +0.7, +0.7
Total YM -8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4
It would be better for us all if Fed Chairman would not schedule speeches for the 10am ET hour. If their info pre-released or even simultaneously released, market participation would at least be more fair. Otherwise, the comments can dribble out and extend the effects. In any case, sticking to the Trade Plan can help keep you out of trouble, but might require some wider stp's. One of the key elements to exaggerated whiplash volatility is the ability to re-enter a trade if the trade model is still intact after a whiplash event extends beyond stp's. It takes some stomach to re-enter, but observations lead me to conclude that the model will return to expected behavior with the whiplash action behind you. Stay focused. Show conviction to the Trade Entry Models in your Plan. If they don't deserve the conviction to re-enter a position after such whiplash action, they don't deserve to be included in your Trade Plan.
Fri Sep 19 Trades & Journal
20140919
Short 2 NQ 4108.75, 4108.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 4109.5, 4910.0, 4109.5, +4.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4106.5, 4106.0, -1.25, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.6, -0.7, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1153.4, 1153.4, 1153.5, +0.7, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 4100.00, 4100.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4099.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1149.8, 1149.9, -0.3, -0.0
Total NQ +16.25
Total TF +0.5
Breakouts in the TF were the key ingredient to the day's big bear trend, but those came mostly after the 1st frame, and against some extreme oversold momentum readings outside of current Trade Entry Model limits. If a real bear market is finally ensuing, then the stringent filters on bear breakdown levels might have to be lifted from entry models, as when big bears finally get started, they are brutal and persistent. Since the other contracts remained from committed initially, the NQ provided some reversals in resistance to the bearish action. But eventually, the come-lately NQ bullishness will give way, as all sectors and contracts will get in sync with a major trend. Many have called a premature end to this bull market, and I've called at least 3 of the last 1 bear markets myself... Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...
Short 2 NQ 4108.75, 4108.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 3 NQ 4109.5, 4910.0, 4109.5, +4.0, -0.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4106.5, 4106.0, -1.25, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1154.4, 1154.6, -0.7, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1153.4, 1153.4, 1153.5, +0.7, -0.6, +0.7
Long 2 NQ 4100.00, 4100.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4099.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1149.8, 1149.9, -0.3, -0.0
Total NQ +16.25
Total TF +0.5
Breakouts in the TF were the key ingredient to the day's big bear trend, but those came mostly after the 1st frame, and against some extreme oversold momentum readings outside of current Trade Entry Model limits. If a real bear market is finally ensuing, then the stringent filters on bear breakdown levels might have to be lifted from entry models, as when big bears finally get started, they are brutal and persistent. Since the other contracts remained from committed initially, the NQ provided some reversals in resistance to the bearish action. But eventually, the come-lately NQ bullishness will give way, as all sectors and contracts will get in sync with a major trend. Many have called a premature end to this bull market, and I've called at least 3 of the last 1 bear markets myself... Stay focused. ...and a good weekend to all...
Sep 18 Trade Summary
20140918
Short 4 TF 1152.5, 1152.4, 1152.5, 1152.5, +0.7, +1.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17135, 17136, -4, +5
short 2 NQ 4084.25, 4084.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.9, 1153.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1151.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +6.3
Short 4 TF 1152.5, 1152.4, 1152.5, 1152.5, +0.7, +1.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 2 YM 17135, 17136, -4, +5
short 2 NQ 4084.25, 4084.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.9, 1153.5, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1151.6, +1.2
Total YM +1
Total NQ -4.0
Total TF +6.3
Wed Sep 17 Trade Summary
20140917
Long 2 YM 17864, 17864, -0, -0
Long 2 NQ 4059.75, 4060.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.6, +0.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.5, +0.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 1162.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 1164.0, 1163.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +10.00
Total TF +2.0
Long 2 YM 17864, 17864, -0, -0
Long 2 NQ 4059.75, 4060.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1150.8, 1150.6, +0.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.5, +0.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 1162.5, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 1164.0, 1163.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +10.00
Total TF +2.0
Tues Sep 16 Trades & Journal
20140916
Long 2 TF 1138.5, 1137.8, -0.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1140.8, 1140.8, -0.4, -0.4
Short 4 NQ 4024.5, 40.24.5, 4026.0, 40.26.0, -0.0, -0.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1141.8, 1141.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1141.1, 1140.9, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4026.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1138.8, 1138.2, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1137.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4019.5, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1135.8, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4017.0, 4017.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 2 TF 1135.1, 1135.6, +1.4, -0.0
Total NQ +13.5
Total TF +3.2
Considering the large swings today in the TF, trading performance can only be said to be disappointing. Got chopped out of several breakouts that needed continued encouragement as newer additions to the Trade Plan, which adds to disappoint. Part of the problem was the nearly total focus on the TF, while the YM was providing perfect signals and without all the TF's whiplash action. NQ, however, was as nearly consistent, and pretty much saved my day. A final decision to let the default stop-loss distance stand on the last trades risked all the remaining TF profits and more, but did provide the solution to surviving the whiplash action at the TF turns. Stay focused. Don't ignore the other contracts even though the TF remains the object of choice. There's nothing wrong with trading the YM, the NQ or even the ES if necessary.
Long 2 TF 1138.5, 1137.8, -0.0, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1140.8, 1140.8, -0.4, -0.4
Short 4 NQ 4024.5, 40.24.5, 4026.0, 40.26.0, -0.0, -0.0, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1141.8, 1141.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1141.1, 1140.9, +1.0, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4026.5, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1138.8, 1138.2, -1.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1137.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1136.5, 1136.4, +0.5, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4019.5, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1135.8, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4017.0, 4017.0, +2.0, +7.0
Long 2 TF 1135.1, 1135.6, +1.4, -0.0
Total NQ +13.5
Total TF +3.2
Considering the large swings today in the TF, trading performance can only be said to be disappointing. Got chopped out of several breakouts that needed continued encouragement as newer additions to the Trade Plan, which adds to disappoint. Part of the problem was the nearly total focus on the TF, while the YM was providing perfect signals and without all the TF's whiplash action. NQ, however, was as nearly consistent, and pretty much saved my day. A final decision to let the default stop-loss distance stand on the last trades risked all the remaining TF profits and more, but did provide the solution to surviving the whiplash action at the TF turns. Stay focused. Don't ignore the other contracts even though the TF remains the object of choice. There's nothing wrong with trading the YM, the NQ or even the ES if necessary.
Mon Sep 15 Trade Summary
20140915
Long 5 TF 1146.2, 1146.2, 1146.4, 1146.0, 1146.3, +0.7, +0.7, -1.0, +1.0, -0.8
Long 3 NQ 4030.75, 4031.25, 40.32.0, +2.0, +4.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1970.75, 1970.5, -1.5, +1.5
Long 4 TF 1141.0, 1141.0, 1141.5, +0.7, +4.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.4, 1145.2, +0.7, +1.8
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +8.5
Long 5 TF 1146.2, 1146.2, 1146.4, 1146.0, 1146.3, +0.7, +0.7, -1.0, +1.0, -0.8
Long 3 NQ 4030.75, 4031.25, 40.32.0, +2.0, +4.0, -2.0
Long 2 ES 1970.75, 1970.5, -1.5, +1.5
Long 4 TF 1141.0, 1141.0, 1141.5, +0.7, +4.0, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.4, 1145.2, +0.7, +1.8
Total ES -0.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +8.5
Fri Sep 12 Trades & Journal
20140912
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4062.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1164.8, 1163.9, 1164.1, -0.0, +1.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.5, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 4073.75, 4073.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.1
Contract rollover has become a bit of a curiosity. Once, when there was still a hugely active pit in SPOO's, as we called them, rollover was a quasi-religious event. The TF contract has nearly ignored the event once moving to the ICE from the CME, and now, the CME electronic contracts seem to be ignoring it a some themselves, with volume here on the 2nd day as good still in expiring Sep as is now in the new Dec. Whatever. I simply stayed with the Sep TF and went with the Dec CME's. Action was spotty regardless, but the signals were true nonetheless. Trade the Plan. ...and a good weekend to all...
Short 1 TF 1167.4, +0.5
Long 1 NQ 4062.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1164.8, 1163.9, 1164.1, -0.0, +1.9, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, +0.5, +1.2
Short 2 NQ 4073.75, 4073.75, +2.0, +3.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +5.1
Contract rollover has become a bit of a curiosity. Once, when there was still a hugely active pit in SPOO's, as we called them, rollover was a quasi-religious event. The TF contract has nearly ignored the event once moving to the ICE from the CME, and now, the CME electronic contracts seem to be ignoring it a some themselves, with volume here on the 2nd day as good still in expiring Sep as is now in the new Dec. Whatever. I simply stayed with the Sep TF and went with the Dec CME's. Action was spotty regardless, but the signals were true nonetheless. Trade the Plan. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thur Sep 11 Trades & Journal
20140911
Long 2 NQ 4080.75, 4080.0, +1.5, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1160.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17013, 17013, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1160.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4086.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1163.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.7, -0.1, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1164.5, 1164.1, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4082.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1160.8, 1160.7, -0.5, +0.6
Long 2 ES 1986.25, 1986.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1158.9, 1158.9, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4077.0, 4077.5, -1.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1166.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1166.7, 1166.6, +0.5, +1.1
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +3.5
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.2
The lack of any economic reports is often a tell that the day might be choppy. It's not that fundamentals rule the trend. In fact, if anything, its just the opposite, but a lack of belief or purpose or commitment often means that short term swings among the indices are rife with divergence and bifurcation. One of the best trades today was a stp-n-rev into shorts in the NQ while going long in the TF. Instead of handling it according to plan, my NQ stp's were hit without reversing, and my TF longs were simply stopped out too tight. I got neither of those opportunities, and extended my trading to nearly the Noon hour looking for one last decent TF signal, having missed the whole 2nd TF ride back up. Some days are better for trading than others, but today, I think I'd have to simply say some days your response and decision time is better than on other days. And today was not one of my better days. Rehearse the plan mentally over every aberration your entry models can render. Be prepared to act from those established rehearsals. Be the Plan.
Long 2 NQ 4080.75, 4080.0, +1.5, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1160.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17013, 17013, -5, -5
Long 1 TF 1160.5, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4086.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1163.3, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.7, -0.1, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1164.5, 1164.1, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4082.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1160.8, 1160.7, -0.5, +0.6
Long 2 ES 1986.25, 1986.25, +1.5, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1158.9, 1158.9, +0.5, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4077.0, 4077.5, -1.0, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1166.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1166.7, 1166.6, +0.5, +1.1
Total ES +3.0
Total NQ +3.5
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.2
The lack of any economic reports is often a tell that the day might be choppy. It's not that fundamentals rule the trend. In fact, if anything, its just the opposite, but a lack of belief or purpose or commitment often means that short term swings among the indices are rife with divergence and bifurcation. One of the best trades today was a stp-n-rev into shorts in the NQ while going long in the TF. Instead of handling it according to plan, my NQ stp's were hit without reversing, and my TF longs were simply stopped out too tight. I got neither of those opportunities, and extended my trading to nearly the Noon hour looking for one last decent TF signal, having missed the whole 2nd TF ride back up. Some days are better for trading than others, but today, I think I'd have to simply say some days your response and decision time is better than on other days. And today was not one of my better days. Rehearse the plan mentally over every aberration your entry models can render. Be prepared to act from those established rehearsals. Be the Plan.
Wed Sep 10 Trade Summary
Trade Summary
20140910
Long 1 TF 1155.8, +1.2
Short 3 TF 1158.4, 1158.8, 1158.9, -0.0, +1.5, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1154.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.7
20140910
Long 1 TF 1155.8, +1.2
Short 3 TF 1158.4, 1158.8, 1158.9, -0.0, +1.5, +3.0
Long 1 TF 1154.7, +1.0
Total TF +6.7
Tues Sep 9 Trade Summary
20140909
Short 3 TF 1165.3, 1165.5, 1166.3, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1993.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17090, 17060, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1161.1, 1160.9, +1.2, +0.5
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +26
Total TF +3.9
Short 3 TF 1165.3, 1165.5, 1166.3, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 ES 1993.0, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17090, 17060, +19, +7
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1161.1, 1160.9, +1.2, +0.5
Total ES -1.5
Total YM +26
Total TF +3.9
Mon Sep 8 Trades & Journal
20140908
Long 1 YM 17106, +17
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.8, -0.3, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1172.1, -0.5,
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.6, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, 1168.6, +0.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.3, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.2, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1171.4, 1171.9, -0.0, +1.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +4.9
Took two inflection breakout trades today, exactly as prescribed by the plan, and one of them in a place was repeatedly guilty for balking. Breakouts can be an essential element to the trade plan, and today, since I had exited the shorts from the high too early, those breakdown plays were essential in staying ahead of losses and capturing the larger trend of the morning. This required some quick stp-n-rev at critical levels, and without being alert to the possibilities in advance of their arrival, such entries would not have been possible. Stay focused .... even on Mondays... especially on Mondays.
Long 1 YM 17106, +17
Short 2 TF 1173.6, 1173.8, -0.3, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1173.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1172.1, -0.5,
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.6, -0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1170.9, +1.5
Long 3 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, 1168.6, +0.5, -0.7, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.3, +0.7, +1.7
Short 2 TF 1168.2, 1168.2, -0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1171.4, 1171.9, -0.0, +1.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +4.9
Took two inflection breakout trades today, exactly as prescribed by the plan, and one of them in a place was repeatedly guilty for balking. Breakouts can be an essential element to the trade plan, and today, since I had exited the shorts from the high too early, those breakdown plays were essential in staying ahead of losses and capturing the larger trend of the morning. This required some quick stp-n-rev at critical levels, and without being alert to the possibilities in advance of their arrival, such entries would not have been possible. Stay focused .... even on Mondays... especially on Mondays.
Fri Sep 5 Trades & Journal
20140905
Long 3 TF 1160.5, 1160.7, 1160.0, +0.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.7, -0.5, -0.6,
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1162.7, 1162.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1162.4, +1.0,
Long 1 TF 1161.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1161.4, 1161.9, -0.4, +0.7
Long 1 YM 17010, +6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 17000, +15
Long 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1157.9, +2.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +7.9
The important thing is seeing the trades coming in advance of their arrival. This is impossible without a well defined Trade Plan that has precise entry models. Otherwise, you are chasing trade entries after they've already arrived. Stay calm, consider the market from the point of view of 'what if', or 'if that, then this'. In that way,
you can avoid the aspect of being in a predictive mode. Let the market be what it wants. If falling further fulfills a model's criteria, then be prepared to act if it falls further. If a breakout at a prescribed level arrives with the proper filters, then set your entry stp's in advance. Stop-and-reverse plays are trickier. You must see both contingents in advance. If you have trouble doing this, as I often do, that suggests you have trouble in conceding that the market might go the expected distance, but in the OPPOSITE direction. Be careful of your trend assumptions, and remember the Douglas Premise: 'Most of the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go.' ....a good weekend to all...
Long 3 TF 1160.5, 1160.7, 1160.0, +0.5, +0.7, +1.9
Short 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.7, -0.5, -0.6,
Short 2 TF 1166.6, 1166.5, +0.7, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1162.7, 1162.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1162.4, +1.0,
Long 1 TF 1161.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1161.7, +0.8
Long 2 TF 1161.4, 1161.9, -0.4, +0.7
Long 1 YM 17010, +6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, +1.0
Long 1 YM 17000, +15
Long 1 TF 1158.5, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1157.9, +2.0
Total YM +21
Total TF +7.9
The important thing is seeing the trades coming in advance of their arrival. This is impossible without a well defined Trade Plan that has precise entry models. Otherwise, you are chasing trade entries after they've already arrived. Stay calm, consider the market from the point of view of 'what if', or 'if that, then this'. In that way,
you can avoid the aspect of being in a predictive mode. Let the market be what it wants. If falling further fulfills a model's criteria, then be prepared to act if it falls further. If a breakout at a prescribed level arrives with the proper filters, then set your entry stp's in advance. Stop-and-reverse plays are trickier. You must see both contingents in advance. If you have trouble doing this, as I often do, that suggests you have trouble in conceding that the market might go the expected distance, but in the OPPOSITE direction. Be careful of your trend assumptions, and remember the Douglas Premise: 'Most of the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who thought they knew which way the market was supposed to go.' ....a good weekend to all...
Thur Aug 4 Trade Summary
20140904
Short 1 ES 2003.00, -0.50
Short 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.6, +0.6, +1.0, +1.2
Total ES -0.50
Total TF +2.8
Limited screen time today because of personal biz appointments.
Short 1 ES 2003.00, -0.50
Short 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.6, +0.6, +1.0, +1.2
Total ES -0.50
Total TF +2.8
Limited screen time today because of personal biz appointments.
Wed Sep 3 Trades & Journal
20140903
Short 2 TF 1183.0, 1183.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1183.3, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4098.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1182.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1183.1, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1183.5, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1181.2, 1181.2, 1181.7, +0.5, +1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1181.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1180.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.6
Trend prejudice is a difficult thing to admit. And every basic book and beginner set of guidelines encourages you to use the trend as your mail filter criteria for taking trades. But does this definition of trend really serve you? 'Most the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who think they understand the trend'...to paraphrase the Douglas Premise. If nearly everyone attempts to trade by the trend, and nearly 90% of trading accounts close without making a profit, then perhaps that adage needs to be rethought a bit. Today I failed to follow plan and take a breakout trade in the TF because I thought I understood that trend....and it cost both in the money I didn't make in the breakout as well as that lost by trades taken too early before the breakout phase was done. Instead, focus on trading the price models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and you will 'discover' the trend along with the ensuing price action. Stay disciplined. Show faith in the plan. Trade the plan and you'll be trading into the trends that matter for your time frame and risk allowance.
Short 2 TF 1183.0, 1183.1, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1183.3, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4098.75, 4098.75, +2.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1182.7, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1183.1, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1183.5, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1181.2, 1181.2, 1181.7, +0.5, +1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1181.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1180.2, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1179.3, 1179.3, +0.7, +1.3
Total NQ +1.5
Total TF +3.6
Trend prejudice is a difficult thing to admit. And every basic book and beginner set of guidelines encourages you to use the trend as your mail filter criteria for taking trades. But does this definition of trend really serve you? 'Most the money lost in the markets is lost by traders who think they understand the trend'...to paraphrase the Douglas Premise. If nearly everyone attempts to trade by the trend, and nearly 90% of trading accounts close without making a profit, then perhaps that adage needs to be rethought a bit. Today I failed to follow plan and take a breakout trade in the TF because I thought I understood that trend....and it cost both in the money I didn't make in the breakout as well as that lost by trades taken too early before the breakout phase was done. Instead, focus on trading the price models that appear at the right edge of the video screen, and you will 'discover' the trend along with the ensuing price action. Stay disciplined. Show faith in the plan. Trade the plan and you'll be trading into the trends that matter for your time frame and risk allowance.
Tues Sep 2 Trades & Journal
20140902
Long 2 TF 1174.8, 1174.9, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4085.5, 4085.0, +2.5, -1.25
Long 2 YM 17057, 17057, -4, -4
Short 5 TF 1178.3, 1178.1, 1179.0, 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, +0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 4091.25, 4091.0, +2.0, -0.25
Short 2 YM 17077, 17078, -2, +7,
Short 2 YM 17095, 17095, +5, -6
Short 2 TF 1180.9, 1180.7, +0.5, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1178.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.1, 1176.1, -0.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1174.7, 1174.7. 1174.7, 1174.7, +0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1173.3, 1173.3, 1173.3, +0.5, +0.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1171.8, 1171.6, +1.2, +0.5,
Short 1 TF 1173.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1175.4, +2.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +6.5
Trade action can 'condition' you to go to sleep. The day starts out a bit choppy. The four index contracts aren't tracking well. Signals are split, and it seems very much like you've entered another one of those listless, caught-in-the-doldrums trading days. But the market teaches us to look for opposites. How it behaves in the First Frame is what it comes out of in the Second. If volatile in the First, the second sleeps and grinds. If grinding and choppy in the First, then look out and get ready, because the Second Frame of the day could contain all the volatility you were looking for in the First, right when you least expect it. Today was just such as day, as good short signals finally showed up in the TF and NQ, only to shake me loose from them long before their respective excursions hit vertical air pockets of total collapse. I was thinking 'It's choppy, better nailed down these minimum profits' right when I should have been looking for opposites. Look for opposites. The Rule of Alternation describes not only wave and excursion length, but the style of price action as well. Let the feeling of being lulled into sleep be a warning bell in your head. The change can be dramatic.
Long 2 TF 1174.8, 1174.9, -0.6, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 4085.5, 4085.0, +2.5, -1.25
Long 2 YM 17057, 17057, -4, -4
Short 5 TF 1178.3, 1178.1, 1179.0, 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.2, +0.5, +1.0, +0.3, +0.5
Short 2 NQ 4091.25, 4091.0, +2.0, -0.25
Short 2 YM 17077, 17078, -2, +7,
Short 2 YM 17095, 17095, +5, -6
Short 2 TF 1180.9, 1180.7, +0.5, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1178.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1176.1, 1176.1, -0.7, -0.7
Long 4 TF 1174.7, 1174.7. 1174.7, 1174.7, +0.5, -0.5, -0.5, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1173.3, 1173.3, 1173.3, +0.5, +0.8, +1.2
Long 2 TF 1171.8, 1171.6, +1.2, +0.5,
Short 1 TF 1173.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1175.4, +2.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +6.5
Trade action can 'condition' you to go to sleep. The day starts out a bit choppy. The four index contracts aren't tracking well. Signals are split, and it seems very much like you've entered another one of those listless, caught-in-the-doldrums trading days. But the market teaches us to look for opposites. How it behaves in the First Frame is what it comes out of in the Second. If volatile in the First, the second sleeps and grinds. If grinding and choppy in the First, then look out and get ready, because the Second Frame of the day could contain all the volatility you were looking for in the First, right when you least expect it. Today was just such as day, as good short signals finally showed up in the TF and NQ, only to shake me loose from them long before their respective excursions hit vertical air pockets of total collapse. I was thinking 'It's choppy, better nailed down these minimum profits' right when I should have been looking for opposites. Look for opposites. The Rule of Alternation describes not only wave and excursion length, but the style of price action as well. Let the feeling of being lulled into sleep be a warning bell in your head. The change can be dramatic.
Fir Aug 29 Trades & Journal
Trade Summary
20140829
Long 2 TF 1164.0, 1164.1, -0.5, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1163.7, 1163.7, 1163.8, +0.7, +0.7, +1.6
Long 2 NQ 4068.5, 4068.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1162.8, 1162.8, +0.7, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1164.9, 1164.6, +0.8, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1164.9, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1165.4, 1165.4, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 40.67.75, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4068.75, 4068.75, -0.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1165.8, +1.4
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +6.5
Breakouts are an important part of any Trade Plan. But choosing the right ones can be a challenge. Remember: One key question to filter the model: is the impulse before you or behind you...? Today, at least can say was in the game, but with the slow grinding 2nd trend, I punted on size and stayed small on breakout positions...to the detriment of profits. Stay with the Plan. Keep practicing with breakout models. Allow confidence to grow with the subtlety of filter refinement. ...and a good weekend to all...
20140829
Long 2 TF 1164.0, 1164.1, -0.5, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1163.7, 1163.7, 1163.8, +0.7, +0.7, +1.6
Long 2 NQ 4068.5, 4068.75, -2.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1162.8, 1162.8, +0.7, +1.8
Short 2 TF 1164.9, 1164.6, +0.8, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1164.9, -0.1
Long 2 TF 1165.4, 1165.4, -0.0, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 40.67.75, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4068.75, 4068.75, -0.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1165.8, +1.4
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +6.5
Breakouts are an important part of any Trade Plan. But choosing the right ones can be a challenge. Remember: One key question to filter the model: is the impulse before you or behind you...? Today, at least can say was in the game, but with the slow grinding 2nd trend, I punted on size and stayed small on breakout positions...to the detriment of profits. Stay with the Plan. Keep practicing with breakout models. Allow confidence to grow with the subtlety of filter refinement. ...and a good weekend to all...
Thurs Aug 28 Trades & Journal
20140828
Short 2 NQ 4058.5, 4058.75, -1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1161.4, +1.3
Short 1 NQ 4060.25, -1.25
Short 1 ES 1992.5, -1.0
Short 1 YM 17041, -1
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1163.1, 1163.1, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1162.5, +1.0
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ +0.75
Total TF +4.3
Getting out too early is one of the worst traits in trading to suffer from. Often, it can be solved by having more contracts to simply parse out. But that requires greater initial risk, or greater initial confidence that the trade entry models identify the bigger intraday swings successfully. When price action is more choppy and less volatile, as is often the case in mid-August doldrums and other lower volume periods, confidence expressed by longer holding periods or bigger positions can simply generate more losses. But when this period subsides, I need to re examine how to capture more of the available excursions from the solid entry models now being employed. Stay disciplined.
Short 2 NQ 4058.5, 4058.75, -1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1161.4, +1.3
Short 1 NQ 4060.25, -1.25
Short 1 ES 1992.5, -1.0
Short 1 YM 17041, -1
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4060.75, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1163.1, 1163.1, +0.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1162.5, +1.0
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ +0.75
Total TF +4.3
Getting out too early is one of the worst traits in trading to suffer from. Often, it can be solved by having more contracts to simply parse out. But that requires greater initial risk, or greater initial confidence that the trade entry models identify the bigger intraday swings successfully. When price action is more choppy and less volatile, as is often the case in mid-August doldrums and other lower volume periods, confidence expressed by longer holding periods or bigger positions can simply generate more losses. But when this period subsides, I need to re examine how to capture more of the available excursions from the solid entry models now being employed. Stay disciplined.
Thurs Aug 27 Trade Summary
20140827
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.8, 1171.0, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.6, 1170.6, +0.5, +1.3
Long 1 ES 1995.25, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1173.6, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1173.9, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4069.75, 4071.0, -2.75, -1.5
Short 1 ES 1997.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1174.2, 1174.2, 1174.2, -0.0, -0.4, -0.3
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +0.1
Long 2 TF 1171.5, 1171.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.8, 1171.0, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.6, 1170.6, +0.5, +1.3
Long 1 ES 1995.25, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1173.6, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1173.9, -0.5
Short 2 NQ 4069.75, 4071.0, -2.75, -1.5
Short 1 ES 1997.5, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1174.2, 1174.2, 1174.2, -0.0, -0.4, -0.3
Total ES +1.0
Total NQ -4.25
Total TF +0.1
Tues Aug 26 Trades & Journal
20140826
Long 1 TF 1164.2, +1.0
Short 3 NQ 4069.0, 4068.75, 4069.5, +1.5, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1167.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1168.5, 1168.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1168.6, 1168.9, -0.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1169.4, 1169.4, -0.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1169.8, 1169.8. -0.0, +1.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +1.8
Persistent Trend Days are usually the most challenging... especially when the trend does more grind than swing. Today, I recognized where the best chances for the more impulsive aspect of the trend to begin correctly, but one of those failed with a stp-out, weakening my constitution to hold a 2nd contract position when the latter instance appeared. In other words, I let a previous loss invade the next trade position. As long as you are not 'revenge' trading, you have to let go of a previous loss and take the next signal cleanly, and then deal with it according to your management plan quite on its own. Give the Trader voice. His most insistent and persistent vocalization is the basic question the Trade Plan demands: "Has the model arrived?" ...and, "Is the model still intact?" If it is, then wipe the little nose-bleed from your wounded psyche, stay in the ring and counter-punch the next blow. Trading is more than a little like boxing. Sometimes it actually requires taking a hit to open your eyes into a winning position. Learn to love your losses. Let them be a pathway to your success.
Long 1 TF 1164.2, +1.0
Short 3 NQ 4069.0, 4068.75, 4069.5, +1.5, -2.25, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1167.2, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1168.5, 1168.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1168.6, 1168.9, -0.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1169.4, 1169.4, -0.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1169.8, 1169.8. -0.0, +1.5
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +1.8
Persistent Trend Days are usually the most challenging... especially when the trend does more grind than swing. Today, I recognized where the best chances for the more impulsive aspect of the trend to begin correctly, but one of those failed with a stp-out, weakening my constitution to hold a 2nd contract position when the latter instance appeared. In other words, I let a previous loss invade the next trade position. As long as you are not 'revenge' trading, you have to let go of a previous loss and take the next signal cleanly, and then deal with it according to your management plan quite on its own. Give the Trader voice. His most insistent and persistent vocalization is the basic question the Trade Plan demands: "Has the model arrived?" ...and, "Is the model still intact?" If it is, then wipe the little nose-bleed from your wounded psyche, stay in the ring and counter-punch the next blow. Trading is more than a little like boxing. Sometimes it actually requires taking a hit to open your eyes into a winning position. Learn to love your losses. Let them be a pathway to your success.
Mon Aug 25 Trades & Journal
20140825
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, 4071.0, +2.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1164.6, 1164.8, -0.8, +0.7,
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +0.5, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.0, 1167.4, -0.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1997.0, 1997.0, +0.25, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1197.25, +1.75
Long 2 NQ 4071.75, 4071.5, -0.5, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1997.75, 1998.25, -1.25, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.5, -0.75, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.75, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 4073.5, 4073.5, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1167.4, 1167.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1164.3, 1154.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.1, 1163.9, -0.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1162.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1161.0, +0.5, -0.6
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +13
Total TF -1.0
As the TF trend action was Yang-Yin (the 1st Frame is consolidation leading to the more usual 1st Frame trend taking place in the 2nd Frame, I allowed myself trading into the 2nd Frame. However, I was filtered out by Plan from breakout shorts on the way down, and was left with trying to find the turn. Not satisfying. Believe it is worth re-examining those filters against shorts in that situation as I have been left on sidelines before as similar impulse trends develop, unable to act. Today, I think the Plan failed me more than I it. Plans should only change slowly, but I'll add today's technical factors to the study list. Stay focused.
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, 4071.0, +2.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1164.6, 1164.8, -0.8, +0.7,
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +0.5, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.0, 1167.4, -0.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1997.0, 1997.0, +0.25, -1.0
Short 1 ES 1197.25, +1.75
Long 2 NQ 4071.75, 4071.5, -0.5, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4071.0, +2.0
Short 2 ES 1997.75, 1998.25, -1.25, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.5, -0.75, -0.75
Short 2 NQ 4077.5, 4077.75, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 4073.5, 4073.5, +1.5, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1167.4, 1167.0, -0.7, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1164.3, 1154.5, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1164.1, 1163.9, -0.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1162.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1160.9, 1161.0, +0.5, -0.6
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +13
Total TF -1.0
As the TF trend action was Yang-Yin (the 1st Frame is consolidation leading to the more usual 1st Frame trend taking place in the 2nd Frame, I allowed myself trading into the 2nd Frame. However, I was filtered out by Plan from breakout shorts on the way down, and was left with trying to find the turn. Not satisfying. Believe it is worth re-examining those filters against shorts in that situation as I have been left on sidelines before as similar impulse trends develop, unable to act. Today, I think the Plan failed me more than I it. Plans should only change slowly, but I'll add today's technical factors to the study list. Stay focused.
Fri Aug 22 Trades & Journal
20140822
Short 2 TF 1153.7, 1154.1, -0.0, +0.9
Long 1 YM 16995, +25
Short 1 TF 1153.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4048.5, 4048.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1175.4, 1157.4, -0.7, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1158.6, 1158.6, 1158.5, 1158.3, +0.7, +0.7, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1156.1, 1156.3, +1.3, +0.5
ToTal YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.2
We dont' trade the news. We trade structure and volatility, when those aspects fulfill certain technical qualifications. Yellen may speak. She may shout. She may even yell. But we don't care as traders what she says. We are, however, grateful for the injection of adrenaline she and other Fed Chairman bring to the markets. That it is said by journalists that her news causes the markets to move does not, in fact, change the way the market fulfills the rules to its own internal structuring. That, she cannot change ever. Create a Trade Plan around these market models. Trade the models, not the news. This is our discipline. ....and a good weekend to all.
Short 2 TF 1153.7, 1154.1, -0.0, +0.9
Long 1 YM 16995, +25
Short 1 TF 1153.6, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4048.5, 4048.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1175.4, 1157.4, -0.7, -0.7
Short 4 TF 1158.6, 1158.6, 1158.5, 1158.3, +0.7, +0.7, +0.7, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1156.1, 1156.3, +1.3, +0.5
ToTal YM +25
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.2
We dont' trade the news. We trade structure and volatility, when those aspects fulfill certain technical qualifications. Yellen may speak. She may shout. She may even yell. But we don't care as traders what she says. We are, however, grateful for the injection of adrenaline she and other Fed Chairman bring to the markets. That it is said by journalists that her news causes the markets to move does not, in fact, change the way the market fulfills the rules to its own internal structuring. That, she cannot change ever. Create a Trade Plan around these market models. Trade the models, not the news. This is our discipline. ....and a good weekend to all.
Thurs Aug 21 Trades & Journal
20140821
Short 2 YM 16975, 16975, -4, -5
Short 2 YM 16987, 16987, -7, -7
Long 2 NQ 4043.5, 4043.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1153.2, 1153.1, +2.7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 17005, 17005, +7, +22
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1150.2, +2.0, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1145.7, -0.4
Long 2 YM 16985, 16983, -6, -4
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +8.8
Trading around the news, and especially positioning in front of it, does not mean you are predicting the news. Never can the news be predicted. But because the market is bound to fill out its destined structure, you can trade your plan and enter when that structure fulfills a Trade Entry Model from your plan. Today, two such entry models appeared in the TF. One just before the beloved Philly Fed number release, and then another a short time
afterwards. Trade your plan. The news itself is nothing but confusion. Leave its interpretation to the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg. Whether they can admit to it or not, they temper their comments based on how the news sees it anyway, foolishly thinking traders actually analyse it for economic content before they make short term decisions in the pits. Don't try to make decisions based on its content. Instead, study how the herd has positioned itself just prior and just after the news comes out. Trade what you see. Be the Trader.
Short 2 YM 16975, 16975, -4, -5
Short 2 YM 16987, 16987, -7, -7
Long 2 NQ 4043.5, 4043.5, +2.0, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1153.2, 1153.1, +2.7, +2.0
Short 2 YM 17005, 17005, +7, +22
Short 2 TF 1150.2, 1150.2, +2.0, +2.5
Long 1 TF 1145.7, -0.4
Long 2 YM 16985, 16983, -6, -4
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM -4
Total TF +8.8
Trading around the news, and especially positioning in front of it, does not mean you are predicting the news. Never can the news be predicted. But because the market is bound to fill out its destined structure, you can trade your plan and enter when that structure fulfills a Trade Entry Model from your plan. Today, two such entry models appeared in the TF. One just before the beloved Philly Fed number release, and then another a short time
afterwards. Trade your plan. The news itself is nothing but confusion. Leave its interpretation to the talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg. Whether they can admit to it or not, they temper their comments based on how the news sees it anyway, foolishly thinking traders actually analyse it for economic content before they make short term decisions in the pits. Don't try to make decisions based on its content. Instead, study how the herd has positioned itself just prior and just after the news comes out. Trade what you see. Be the Trader.
Tues Aug 19 Trades & Journal
20140819
Long 2 NQ 4024.0, 40.24.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1158.5, 1158.6, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -.2
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1160.2, +0.7, +0.3
Short 2 TF 1161.3, 1161.3, -0.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1162.6, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1160.6, 1160.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 ES 1975.25, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16868, -5
Short 2 YM 16877, +5, -2
Total YM -2
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.0
Pretty much stuck to plan today. Just got chopped around. Losing days are expected. Just try to avoid digging a big hole to dig out of later in the week... Stay focused.
Long 2 NQ 4024.0, 40.24.25, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1158.5, 1158.6, +1.2, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -.2
Short 1 TF 1159.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1159.8, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1160.2, +0.7, +0.3
Short 2 TF 1161.3, 1161.3, -0.8, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1162.6, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1160.6, 1160.6, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 ES 1975.25, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16868, -5
Short 2 YM 16877, +5, -2
Total YM -2
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.0
Pretty much stuck to plan today. Just got chopped around. Losing days are expected. Just try to avoid digging a big hole to dig out of later in the week... Stay focused.
Mon Aug 18 Trades & Journal
20140818
Short 2 YM 16731, 16731, -5, -5
Long 3 TF 1147.5, 1147.4, 1147.3, +1.0, +0.7, +0.7,
Short 2 YM 16734, 16736, -4, -2
Short 1 YM 16761, -7
Short 2 TF 1150,3, 1150.2, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, -0.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 1151.4, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 4010.25, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1151.9, 1151.9, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1153.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1155.2, +1.5
Total YM -23
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.0
There is such a strong temptation to judge exits on the character of price action, as to whether its choppy or whippy, impulsive or grinding, etc. But these judgements are really just a form of tape reading and are usually misleading as to the depth of any trend or pullback. Today, I lost patience with bull breakouts and didn't therefore enjoy the full excursions long into sell signals when there was really no other compelling reason to have exited but for the slow, grinding character of the action. But I know Second Trends have hidden surprises, I just let the action spook me. Don't let the price action spook you when more meaningful signals are flashing all around you. Let your position work. Position yourself to be surprised. Be disciplined.
Short 2 YM 16731, 16731, -5, -5
Long 3 TF 1147.5, 1147.4, 1147.3, +1.0, +0.7, +0.7,
Short 2 YM 16734, 16736, -4, -2
Short 1 YM 16761, -7
Short 2 TF 1150,3, 1150.2, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, -0.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 1151.4, -0.4
Long 1 NQ 4010.25, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1151.9, 1151.9, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1153.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1155.2, +1.5
Total YM -23
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +7.0
There is such a strong temptation to judge exits on the character of price action, as to whether its choppy or whippy, impulsive or grinding, etc. But these judgements are really just a form of tape reading and are usually misleading as to the depth of any trend or pullback. Today, I lost patience with bull breakouts and didn't therefore enjoy the full excursions long into sell signals when there was really no other compelling reason to have exited but for the slow, grinding character of the action. But I know Second Trends have hidden surprises, I just let the action spook me. Don't let the price action spook you when more meaningful signals are flashing all around you. Let your position work. Position yourself to be surprised. Be disciplined.
Fri Aug 15 Trades & Journal
20140815
Short 1 ES 1958.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1146.5, 1146.5, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1146.7 1146.4, -0.7, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3987.75, -1.25
Short 2 YM 16725, 16725, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1147.0, 1147.0 -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1147.4, 1147.8, 1147.6, +0.5,-0.6, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1148.9, 1148.8, +0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1149.3, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16529, -7
Short 1 ES 1960.25, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16719, 16714, -10, -4
Long 2 YM 16698, 16698, +10, -4
Long 2 ES 1953.75, 1953.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1951.75, 1951.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1136.2, 1136.2, 1136.2, +2.0,. +2.0, +4.0
Total ES -0.0
Total YM -15
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +3.6
There is a normal Ying-Yang to the volatility of the day. The 1st frame usually gets the volatility, the Midday frame gets the grind and drift. But occasionally, that flips around and then it's Yang-Ying. When this occurs, you can spend down your day's quota in losses before the best trades show up, and so it was today for me that I had just hit a daily loss quota when some important reversal signals appeared after a sudden collapse. But had no further signal appeared, I would have had to rely on a lot of self discipline to accept a moderately losing day, and a nice string of winners. Preservation of capital is key to consistency. A losing day can be overcome when consistency returns, and most market patterns and fractals do not look like that of today. Today, although I didn't trade past my loss quota before profits showed up, I did trade past my total trades taken limit. I rationalized that since so many were small losses, and I had 4 pts in ES profits as some cushion, it didn't matter. But small losses add up too. Keep your eye on the whole game. A few broken rules here and there, and a temptation to throw the whole discipline out can creep in. Stay focused. Stay in for the long haul. On most days like this, the profits you missed are usually more annoying than the losses you took, unless those losses exceed your daily loss limit. Keep an eye on that limit. Maintain that discipline. Live to trade another day.
Short 1 ES 1958.5, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1146.5, 1146.5, +0.4, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1146.7 1146.4, -0.7, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3987.75, -1.25
Short 2 YM 16725, 16725, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1147.0, 1147.0 -0.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1147.4, 1147.8, 1147.6, +0.5,-0.6, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1148.9, 1148.8, +0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1149.3, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16529, -7
Short 1 ES 1960.25, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16719, 16714, -10, -4
Long 2 YM 16698, 16698, +10, -4
Long 2 ES 1953.75, 1953.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 ES 1951.75, 1951.75, -1.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1139.6, 1139.6, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1136.2, 1136.2, 1136.2, +2.0,. +2.0, +4.0
Total ES -0.0
Total YM -15
Total NQ -1.25
Total TF +3.6
There is a normal Ying-Yang to the volatility of the day. The 1st frame usually gets the volatility, the Midday frame gets the grind and drift. But occasionally, that flips around and then it's Yang-Ying. When this occurs, you can spend down your day's quota in losses before the best trades show up, and so it was today for me that I had just hit a daily loss quota when some important reversal signals appeared after a sudden collapse. But had no further signal appeared, I would have had to rely on a lot of self discipline to accept a moderately losing day, and a nice string of winners. Preservation of capital is key to consistency. A losing day can be overcome when consistency returns, and most market patterns and fractals do not look like that of today. Today, although I didn't trade past my loss quota before profits showed up, I did trade past my total trades taken limit. I rationalized that since so many were small losses, and I had 4 pts in ES profits as some cushion, it didn't matter. But small losses add up too. Keep your eye on the whole game. A few broken rules here and there, and a temptation to throw the whole discipline out can creep in. Stay focused. Stay in for the long haul. On most days like this, the profits you missed are usually more annoying than the losses you took, unless those losses exceed your daily loss limit. Keep an eye on that limit. Maintain that discipline. Live to trade another day.
Thurs Aug 14 Trades & Journal
20140814
Long 1 TF 1141.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.3, 1141.3, +.7, +.7
Long 2 NQ 3948.5, 39.48.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.3, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16620, 16621, +5, +1
Short 2 TF 1139.5, 1139.9, -0.7, -0.5
Short 1 YM 16631, -7
Short 1 ES 1946.75, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, 1140,5, +0.5, +1.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1141.7, 1141.6, +0.5, +1.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -1
Total TF +3.7
...some days are better for trading than others....
Long 1 TF 1141.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.3, 1141.3, +.7, +.7
Long 2 NQ 3948.5, 39.48.25, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.3, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16620, 16621, +5, +1
Short 2 TF 1139.5, 1139.9, -0.7, -0.5
Short 1 YM 16631, -7
Short 1 ES 1946.75, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1140.6, 1140.6, 1140,5, +0.5, +1.0, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1141.7, 1141.6, +0.5, +1.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -1
Total TF +3.7
...some days are better for trading than others....
Wed Aug 13 Trades & Journal
20140813
Long 1 NQ 3921.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1134.5, 1134.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1132.8, 1132.7, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1132.7, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3927.5, 3927.25, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3923.0, 3923.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.25, -2.00, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 3931.0, 3930.0, 3930.5, +2.0, -2.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1137.5, 1137.6, +1.0, +.07
Short 2 NQ 3934.0, 3934.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1139.0, -0.0
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.1
Balked at another breakout trade today. And since a pair of signals came in immediate succession, the first one failing to produce actually made the second one all the more likely to succeed... and yet I still balked and failed to take it. The more successful breakouts tend to arrive in disbelief, and yet "most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market could go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction". This is the nature of the market. Use the measure of your own disbelief that price can't possibly succeed in going further into a trigger to take the trade anyway. The peaking momentum is only a sign that price will soon peak itself in mimicry to the momentum, not a warning that the market has already peaked. As price follows momentum, the market is far more likely to peak after momentum, giving the breakout the surprising impulse needed to make the trade a success. Wait til an actual price impulse spike is behind you to expect the momentum to have an affect. Use the Rule of Alternation to full advantage. If the model is in place, take the trade, your disbelief in the trade's potential notwithstanding.
Long 1 NQ 3921.5, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1134.5, 1134.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1132.8, 1132.7, -0.0, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1132.6, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1132.7, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3927.5, 3927.25, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 3923.0, 3923.5, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 NQ 3928.5, 3928.25, -2.00, -0.0
Short 3 NQ 3931.0, 3930.0, 3930.5, +2.0, -2.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1137.5, 1137.6, +1.0, +.07
Short 2 NQ 3934.0, 3934.0, -1.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1139.0, -0.0
Total NQ +8.25
Total TF +6.1
Balked at another breakout trade today. And since a pair of signals came in immediate succession, the first one failing to produce actually made the second one all the more likely to succeed... and yet I still balked and failed to take it. The more successful breakouts tend to arrive in disbelief, and yet "most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market could go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction". This is the nature of the market. Use the measure of your own disbelief that price can't possibly succeed in going further into a trigger to take the trade anyway. The peaking momentum is only a sign that price will soon peak itself in mimicry to the momentum, not a warning that the market has already peaked. As price follows momentum, the market is far more likely to peak after momentum, giving the breakout the surprising impulse needed to make the trade a success. Wait til an actual price impulse spike is behind you to expect the momentum to have an affect. Use the Rule of Alternation to full advantage. If the model is in place, take the trade, your disbelief in the trade's potential notwithstanding.
Tues Aug 12 Trades & Journal
20140812
Short 2 NQ 3912.25, 3912.0, +2.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1139.6, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16506, 16506, +7, +15
Long 1 NQ 3900.75, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 3899.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.6, 1134.5, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1133.6, 1133.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.4, 1130.4, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +22
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +4.9
For both these past two days, I ducked an in-trend breakout because the special momentum indicator was flashing a warning level. But a warning level is not a true block to filter out the entry model as it crosses the 'tracks', it's a warning that the end-of-trend could be nearing. And when it comes to momentum, the last few readings left in the momentum indicator itself can be accompanied by the final price spike in an impulse trend that reached a climatic extreme, accounting for far more price in that final spike than perhaps would be expected by such a small final move in the momentum indicator. Thus it is how nearly parabolic moves come to an end. This is not a new aspect to trade entry model specifications. More accurately, I have used the warning aspect of the momentum indicator as an excuse to balk at taking the breakout, which is a tendency I've long wanted to control in order to participate better with these breakouts when the entry model signifies go otherwise. In other words, I use the excuse that my trade model was failing me when it was really me that was keeping my trade model vague on purpose, in order to avoid taking the breakout play. Let's wash this out. Breakouts can take some faith, granted, but overcoming the apprehension surrounding them would markedly improve my trading. Polish the plan. Acknowledge the adjustment. Be determined to act.
Short 2 NQ 3912.25, 3912.0, +2.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1139.6, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16506, 16506, +7, +15
Long 1 NQ 3900.75, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 3899.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1134.6, 1134.5, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1133.6, 1133.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1130.4, 1130.4, +0.7, +2.0
Total YM +22
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +4.9
For both these past two days, I ducked an in-trend breakout because the special momentum indicator was flashing a warning level. But a warning level is not a true block to filter out the entry model as it crosses the 'tracks', it's a warning that the end-of-trend could be nearing. And when it comes to momentum, the last few readings left in the momentum indicator itself can be accompanied by the final price spike in an impulse trend that reached a climatic extreme, accounting for far more price in that final spike than perhaps would be expected by such a small final move in the momentum indicator. Thus it is how nearly parabolic moves come to an end. This is not a new aspect to trade entry model specifications. More accurately, I have used the warning aspect of the momentum indicator as an excuse to balk at taking the breakout, which is a tendency I've long wanted to control in order to participate better with these breakouts when the entry model signifies go otherwise. In other words, I use the excuse that my trade model was failing me when it was really me that was keeping my trade model vague on purpose, in order to avoid taking the breakout play. Let's wash this out. Breakouts can take some faith, granted, but overcoming the apprehension surrounding them would markedly improve my trading. Polish the plan. Acknowledge the adjustment. Be determined to act.
Mon Aug 11 Trade Summary
20140811
Short 2 TF 1133.1, 1133.4, -0.1, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3999.75, 3999.0, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1131.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1133.3, 1133.5, -0.6, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3999.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1135.5, 1136.5, -0.0, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 3908.25, 3908.5, -1.25, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3909.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.3, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1141.9, 1141.7, +0.7, +2.0
Total NQ +7.25
Total TF +5.8
Short 2 TF 1133.1, 1133.4, -0.1, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3999.75, 3999.0, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1131.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1133.3, 1133.5, -0.6, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3999.0, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1135.5, 1136.5, -0.0, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 3908.25, 3908.5, -1.25, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3909.0, +5.0
Short 2 TF 1141.1, 1141.0, -0.3, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1141.9, 1141.7, +0.7, +2.0
Total NQ +7.25
Total TF +5.8
Fri Aug 8 Trade Summary
20140808
Long 2 YM 16319, 16319, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16314, 16314, +10, +15
Short 3 TF 1117.0, 1117.5, 1117.6, -0.1, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 16350, 16350, 16351, +7, +7, -5
Short 1 TF 1120.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1120.4, 1120.4, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, +0.7, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1121.9, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +7.0
Long 2 YM 16319, 16319, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16314, 16314, +10, +15
Short 3 TF 1117.0, 1117.5, 1117.6, -0.1, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 YM 16350, 16350, 16351, +7, +7, -5
Short 1 TF 1120.5, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1120.4, 1120.4, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1122.3, 1122.3, +0.7, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1121.9, +1.5
Total YM +15
Total TF +7.0
Thur Aug 7 Trades & Journal
20140807
Short 2 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.2, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1920.5, 1920.25, +1.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 3878.75, 3875.5, +4.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1129.9, 1129.8, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1125.1, 1125.3, +0.7, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1124.9, +0.7, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16412, 16412, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16402, 16402, +10, -1, -1
Long 2 YM 16384, 16384, -5, -5
Long 2 NQ 3869.5, 3869.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1120.2, 1120.0, -.7, -.5
Long 2 NQ 3870.5, 3870.75, +2.0, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16350, 16350, +7, +13
Long 1 TF 1115.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1115.7, +2.0
Total ES -0.25
Total YM +8
Total NQ +16.5
Total TF +10.0
Adages and truisms are easy to quote. But the "Ten Rules of Trading You Should Never Violate" is like a tome of how-to for thinking outside the box. Today was a perfect example. Early going in the TF provided great two-sided trading... enough to have made a reasonable trade quota before the TF had even succeeded in leaving the attraction of the ORB. But at the lows, after it broke, the momentum indicators were cautioning against selling further breakdowns, and indeed, anyone who might have taken them would have been hooked short on most breaks while the bulls who faded them enjoyed swooning balloons of profits upward. "Never buy a new Low" is just one of those ten rules, and I remain so pleased that those who adhere to it are crowding me out of buying those lows when exacting trade entry models are fulfilled by them. Stay disciplined. Trade according to a rule book written by the market itself. The market tells you where and how to buy everyday. Shut up and listen. ...and I'll continue to take my rules from the wisdom of Heraclitus. "Fools, although they hear, are like the deaf." When it comes to trading, don't turn a deaf ear to what the market is teaching you. There are times to counter-trade and times to enter into breakouts. Just stop and listen to the market. Each day an internal structure to its opportunities is on full display to anyone who can take the ten rules of trading from what the market itself can teach you, and nowhere else.
Short 2 TF 1125.6, 1125.6, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.2, +1.0
Long 2 ES 1920.5, 1920.25, +1.0, -1.25
Long 2 NQ 3878.75, 3875.5, +4.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1129.9, 1129.8, +0.7, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1125.1, 1125.3, +0.7, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1124.9, 1124.9, +0.7, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16412, 16412, -5, -5
Long 2 YM 16402, 16402, +10, -1, -1
Long 2 YM 16384, 16384, -5, -5
Long 2 NQ 3869.5, 3869.25, +2.0, +8.0
Long 2 TF 1120.2, 1120.0, -.7, -.5
Long 2 NQ 3870.5, 3870.75, +2.0, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16350, 16350, +7, +13
Long 1 TF 1115.9, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1115.7, +2.0
Total ES -0.25
Total YM +8
Total NQ +16.5
Total TF +10.0
Adages and truisms are easy to quote. But the "Ten Rules of Trading You Should Never Violate" is like a tome of how-to for thinking outside the box. Today was a perfect example. Early going in the TF provided great two-sided trading... enough to have made a reasonable trade quota before the TF had even succeeded in leaving the attraction of the ORB. But at the lows, after it broke, the momentum indicators were cautioning against selling further breakdowns, and indeed, anyone who might have taken them would have been hooked short on most breaks while the bulls who faded them enjoyed swooning balloons of profits upward. "Never buy a new Low" is just one of those ten rules, and I remain so pleased that those who adhere to it are crowding me out of buying those lows when exacting trade entry models are fulfilled by them. Stay disciplined. Trade according to a rule book written by the market itself. The market tells you where and how to buy everyday. Shut up and listen. ...and I'll continue to take my rules from the wisdom of Heraclitus. "Fools, although they hear, are like the deaf." When it comes to trading, don't turn a deaf ear to what the market is teaching you. There are times to counter-trade and times to enter into breakouts. Just stop and listen to the market. Each day an internal structure to its opportunities is on full display to anyone who can take the ten rules of trading from what the market itself can teach you, and nowhere else.
Wed Aug 6 Trade Summary
20140806
Short 1 TF 1112.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1112.4, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1910.5, 1912.0, -2.5, -1.25
Short 3 TF 1117.8, 1117.8, 1117.8, +1.2, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3863.0, 3863.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 4 NQ 3864.25, 3864.5, 3864.5, 3864.0, +5.0, +2.0, +7.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1118.6, 1118.7, +1.2, +1.3
Short 3 NQ 3867.5, 3867.0, 3867.5, +2.0, -2.5, -2.5
Short 3 TF 1122.9, 1122.9, 1123.2, +0.7, +0.7, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3864.0, +3.0
Total ES -3.75
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +6.2
Short 1 TF 1112.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1112.4, -0.6
Short 2 ES 1910.5, 1912.0, -2.5, -1.25
Short 3 TF 1117.8, 1117.8, 1117.8, +1.2, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3863.0, 3863.0, -2.0, -2.0
Short 4 NQ 3864.25, 3864.5, 3864.5, 3864.0, +5.0, +2.0, +7.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1118.6, 1118.7, +1.2, +1.3
Short 3 NQ 3867.5, 3867.0, 3867.5, +2.0, -2.5, -2.5
Short 3 TF 1122.9, 1122.9, 1123.2, +0.7, +0.7, +3.0
Long 1 NQ 3864.0, +3.0
Total ES -3.75
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +6.2
Tues Aug 5 Trades & Journal
20140805
Short 1 NQ 3884.75, -2.5
Long 2 YM 16456, 16452, -6, +7
Long 2 NQ 3883.00, 3883.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1118.3, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +1
Total TF +6.7
It pays to have all four contracts, ES, YM, NQ and TF in plain site in prime monitor real estate at all times. Today, an important trade came for the TF, without a signal itself, by borrowing the simultaneous signals appearing in all three of the others. TF is contract of choice. It's the Goldie Locks of volume and volatility for the futures trader. And acquiring signals by the confluence of other technical concepts to trade it is by far the greatest joy of my long career as a futures trader. Stay focused.
Short 1 NQ 3884.75, -2.5
Long 2 YM 16456, 16452, -6, +7
Long 2 NQ 3883.00, 3883.25, +2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1118.3, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1113.8, 1113.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1114.8, +2.0
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +1
Total TF +6.7
It pays to have all four contracts, ES, YM, NQ and TF in plain site in prime monitor real estate at all times. Today, an important trade came for the TF, without a signal itself, by borrowing the simultaneous signals appearing in all three of the others. TF is contract of choice. It's the Goldie Locks of volume and volatility for the futures trader. And acquiring signals by the confluence of other technical concepts to trade it is by far the greatest joy of my long career as a futures trader. Stay focused.
Mon Aug 4 Trades & Journal
20140804
Long 2 YM 16425, 16425, +5, +15
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16450, 16450, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3889.5, 3889.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16436, +15
Short 2 TF 1117.2, 1117.2, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1110.7, +1.4
Long 1 YM 16417, -5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1107.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.2
Total NQ -0.0
Total YM +47
Total TF +6.0
The best trades are always a combination of momentum, fractal structure and price level. Leave out any one of those, the risks increase that the trade will fail. Balk at taking multiple contract position when they all appear in confluence as signals, then risk not being able to profit from the best trades of the frame, leaving you the impulse to take other trades of lessor signal strength. Today, on a breakdown play well within the parameters of all 3 technical aspects, I took a 1-lot position when I should have taken 2. ...but at least I'll acknowledge some improvement for having taken the breakdown play in the first place, as aspect of my trading long in need of serious improvement. Stay focused on what needs to change. Note the opportunities that correspond to these changes. Take the trades until they become habits. Your fate as the Trader is built on better habits.
Long 2 YM 16425, 16425, +5, +15
Long 1 TF 1113.5, +1.5
Short 2 YM 16450, 16450, +7, +10
Long 2 NQ 3889.5, 3889.0, -2.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16436, +15
Short 2 TF 1117.2, 1117.2, +0.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1110.7, +1.4
Long 1 YM 16417, -5
Long 1 TF 1108.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1107.7, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1107.4, +1.2
Total NQ -0.0
Total YM +47
Total TF +6.0
The best trades are always a combination of momentum, fractal structure and price level. Leave out any one of those, the risks increase that the trade will fail. Balk at taking multiple contract position when they all appear in confluence as signals, then risk not being able to profit from the best trades of the frame, leaving you the impulse to take other trades of lessor signal strength. Today, on a breakdown play well within the parameters of all 3 technical aspects, I took a 1-lot position when I should have taken 2. ...but at least I'll acknowledge some improvement for having taken the breakdown play in the first place, as aspect of my trading long in need of serious improvement. Stay focused on what needs to change. Note the opportunities that correspond to these changes. Take the trades until they become habits. Your fate as the Trader is built on better habits.
Fri Aug 1 Trade Summary
20140801
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1116.9, -0.3
Short 3 NQ 3895.0, 3895.5, 3895.25, +2.0, +5.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.4, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1113.1, 1113.1, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3879.5, 3879.5, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +18.00
Total TF +1.5
Short 1 TF 1117.0, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1116.9, -0.3
Short 3 NQ 3895.0, 3895.5, 3895.25, +2.0, +5.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1118.5, 1118.5, 1118.4, +0.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 2 TF 1113.1, 1113.1, -0.6, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3879.5, 3879.5, +2.0, +5.0
Total NQ +18.00
Total TF +1.5
Thur Jul 31 Trades & Journal
20140731
Short 1 TF 1133.1, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1133.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1134.2, 1133.8, +2.5, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1949.5, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1126.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.1, +1.0
Total ES +4.0
Total TF +3.8
The action of a big bear move after a big opening gap can be a little confusing. The initial choppiness seems a tug-a-war between the ensuing trend and the immediate oversold condition such gaps produce. That can make breakdown triggers less inviting, and today, I let those feelings about the action deter me from the better trades. When the big bear comes... and eventually it will... Risks in taking more of the breakdown triggers that action might be choppy must be endured. For those breakdown triggers that do appear within the Trade Plan, have confidence. They're no riskier than the bounces and far less risky than fading the unraveling price decline. Come the market prepared to act decisively. Trade the Plan, not the action.
Short 1 TF 1133.1, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1132.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1133.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1134.2, 1133.8, +2.5, +0.7
Short 1 ES 1949.5, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1126.9, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1126.1, +1.0
Total ES +4.0
Total TF +3.8
The action of a big bear move after a big opening gap can be a little confusing. The initial choppiness seems a tug-a-war between the ensuing trend and the immediate oversold condition such gaps produce. That can make breakdown triggers less inviting, and today, I let those feelings about the action deter me from the better trades. When the big bear comes... and eventually it will... Risks in taking more of the breakdown triggers that action might be choppy must be endured. For those breakdown triggers that do appear within the Trade Plan, have confidence. They're no riskier than the bounces and far less risky than fading the unraveling price decline. Come the market prepared to act decisively. Trade the Plan, not the action.
Wed Jul 30 Trades & Journal
20140730
Short 1 TF 1147.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1145.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1146.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1147.9, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1142.1, 1142.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1141.7, 1141.7, 1142.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.25, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.6, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +1.50
Total TF +9.0
Many FOMC days are dead ducks going into the news, but seems today the anticipation WAS the game, or at least is my impression as I wrap up the 1st Frame trading. Mostly stuck to plan today, but have to be grateful for catching a 2nd big down draft after losing almost all of the profits of the 1st big 4 pt short earlier on. Whatever made me try so hard to get positioned at exactly the wrong place to be long is worth some further reflection, and I need to revisit those moments in quiet mode for a few minutes to remember where my head was at that potential turn that failed... The best source of trade improvement is in your own trade history. "What were you thinking at the turn?" is a question worth repeating as an exercise each day. There's so much rich wisdom to be garnered from your decisions. Or in the words of the wise sage Heraclitus, "I searched myself."
Short 1 TF 1147.4, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1145.5, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1146.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1147.9, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1142.1, 1142.1, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1141.7, 1141.7, 1142.0, -0.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 1 ES 1967.25, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1144.8, 1144.6, +3.0, +1.5
Total ES +1.50
Total TF +9.0
Many FOMC days are dead ducks going into the news, but seems today the anticipation WAS the game, or at least is my impression as I wrap up the 1st Frame trading. Mostly stuck to plan today, but have to be grateful for catching a 2nd big down draft after losing almost all of the profits of the 1st big 4 pt short earlier on. Whatever made me try so hard to get positioned at exactly the wrong place to be long is worth some further reflection, and I need to revisit those moments in quiet mode for a few minutes to remember where my head was at that potential turn that failed... The best source of trade improvement is in your own trade history. "What were you thinking at the turn?" is a question worth repeating as an exercise each day. There's so much rich wisdom to be garnered from your decisions. Or in the words of the wise sage Heraclitus, "I searched myself."
Tues Jul 29 Trades & Journal
20140729
Short 2 NQ 3967.0, 3967.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16936, 16938, +13, +6,
Short 1 TF 1139.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1140.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.6, 1141.6, +0.7, +0.6
Long 1 NQ 3970.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.2, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1144.7, 1145.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1146.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1145.7, +0.7
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +19
Total TF +4.8
One of the most difficult aspects of taking breakouts is the consideration given to the resistance or support price faces just upon breakout. Why get involved in a position that is about to hit a wall? But often, price dances around just shy of that same support/resistance number with a bit of complexity in wave structure that can serve as a 'pre-breakout' pause pattern. This concept can serve as a sort of setting stone for price to get better footing on, as if it needed a fulcrum for better leverage. I past on such a breakout today that should have been in my Trade Plan except for the fact that I had just hit my minimum quota as the 1st Frame was coming to an end. That's not a bad practice to quit at such times, but does come in conflict with another market behaviorism that I have failed to take advantage of a lot, and mentioned it just the other day here in the journal: that of missing a larger potential turn just as the market comes out of the 1st Frame. I don't have a firm resolution to this quandary as of just yet, but will continue to cite it here in the journal and perhaps reach a better conclusion as to how to proceed in such cases.... a last trade before the final wire versus a trade opp that although involves a breakout, could be coming at a major swing point in the day. Resolving this conflict should come in the form of a rule. Once in play, rules tend to eliminate thinking. No thinking allowed while trading.... Stay disciplined. Stick to a plan. Make the Trade Plan clear enough to follow in most all market circumstances.
Short 2 NQ 3967.0, 3967.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 YM 16936, 16938, +13, +6,
Short 1 TF 1139.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1140.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1141.6, 1141.6, +0.7, +0.6
Long 1 NQ 3970.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1141.2, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1144.7, 1145.0, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1146.0, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1145.7, +0.7
Total NQ +3.0
Total YM +19
Total TF +4.8
One of the most difficult aspects of taking breakouts is the consideration given to the resistance or support price faces just upon breakout. Why get involved in a position that is about to hit a wall? But often, price dances around just shy of that same support/resistance number with a bit of complexity in wave structure that can serve as a 'pre-breakout' pause pattern. This concept can serve as a sort of setting stone for price to get better footing on, as if it needed a fulcrum for better leverage. I past on such a breakout today that should have been in my Trade Plan except for the fact that I had just hit my minimum quota as the 1st Frame was coming to an end. That's not a bad practice to quit at such times, but does come in conflict with another market behaviorism that I have failed to take advantage of a lot, and mentioned it just the other day here in the journal: that of missing a larger potential turn just as the market comes out of the 1st Frame. I don't have a firm resolution to this quandary as of just yet, but will continue to cite it here in the journal and perhaps reach a better conclusion as to how to proceed in such cases.... a last trade before the final wire versus a trade opp that although involves a breakout, could be coming at a major swing point in the day. Resolving this conflict should come in the form of a rule. Once in play, rules tend to eliminate thinking. No thinking allowed while trading.... Stay disciplined. Stick to a plan. Make the Trade Plan clear enough to follow in most all market circumstances.
Mon Jul 28 Trades & Journal
20140728
Long 2 TF 1135.5, 1135.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, +0.7, +2.6
Short 1 TF 1132.1, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1963.75, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1131.5, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.7, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.9, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1962.0, 1962.0, +1.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1127.9, 1127.9, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1132.4, 1132.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1131.9, +2.0
Total ES +1.75
Total TF +6.3
Had little trepidation about taking breakouts today on the way down....only the lack the emotion that often makes me balk at these did little to help the choppy conditions. And befitting the usual laws of the universe, I gave up taking the breakdown signals just at the point where I should have tried once more. Still, I have to feel encouraged that I was able to take them fairly easily today and hope this behavior can become more habitual when such breakout models appear that match my plan again in the trading days ahead.
Long 2 TF 1135.5, 1135.5, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1132.7, 1132.7, +0.7, +2.6
Short 1 TF 1132.1, -0.5
Long 1 ES 1963.75, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1131.5, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1129.7, 1129.7, -0.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1128.9, 1128.9, +0.7, -0.0
Long 2 ES 1962.0, 1962.0, +1.75, +1.25
Short 2 TF 1127.9, 1127.9, +0.7, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1132.4, 1132.4, +0.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1131.9, +2.0
Total ES +1.75
Total TF +6.3
Had little trepidation about taking breakouts today on the way down....only the lack the emotion that often makes me balk at these did little to help the choppy conditions. And befitting the usual laws of the universe, I gave up taking the breakdown signals just at the point where I should have tried once more. Still, I have to feel encouraged that I was able to take them fairly easily today and hope this behavior can become more habitual when such breakout models appear that match my plan again in the trading days ahead.
Thurs Jul 24 Trade Summary
20140724
Long 1 YM 17030, -1
Long 1 TF 1156.7, +1.4
Short 1 YM 17052, -5
Short 2 YM 17051, 17054, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 1156.9, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17028, 17023, +5, -6
Long 3 TF 1153.6, 1153.7, 1153.1, +1.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1154.1, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +5.6
Long 1 YM 17030, -1
Long 1 TF 1156.7, +1.4
Short 1 YM 17052, -5
Short 2 YM 17051, 17054, +7, +20
Long 1 TF 1156.9, -0.5
Long 2 YM 17028, 17023, +5, -6
Long 3 TF 1153.6, 1153.7, 1153.1, +1.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1154.1, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +5.6
Wed Jul 23 Trade Summary
20140723
Short 1 NQ 3967.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3966.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16995, 16995, +7, +26
Short 2 NQ 3672.0, 3670.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3667.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1155.9, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1157.5, -0.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.7
Short 1 NQ 3967.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3966.0, -1.0
Long 2 YM 16995, 16995, +7, +26
Short 2 NQ 3672.0, 3670.75, +4.0, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3667.25, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1156.0, 1155.9, +0.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1157.5, -0.0
Total YM +33
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +1.7
Tues Jul 22 Trades & Journal
20140722
Short 2 YM 17031, 17029, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3951.75, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1154.0, 1153.8, 1154.2, +1.0, -0.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1154.6, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17062, +9
Short 2 TF 1155.5, 1155.3, -0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17055, 17055, +7, -2
Long 2 YM 17043, 17043, +5, +10
Total YM +20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.0
The end of the first frame is arbitrarily defined as 11:15am ET. ....and at least that's how I've observed it all these many years. There are no bells rung on the floor, no hand signals from the pit, no announcement from the exchanges nor econ reports scheduled from the Federal Budget offices. And yet, around 11:15am, the action usually seems to change. If the day has been dull, it may finally begin to show a trend, if impulsive and volatile in the early going, it may roll-over and take a nap. It's a self-imposed limit to only trade the 1st Frame of the day, one which I established after uncovering the fractal study we named Serial Sequent. But it was not my intention to use the impending end-of-frame time to get weak about taking another trade when the day's profits were of still slightly shy of quota. That comes from an unwillingness to give up at least a modest profit in pursuit of a full daily goal. But the last signal of this frame is often one of the best on an otherwise listless day, and balking at its appearance so often lately seems to me to be now a behavior pattern and a growing bad habit. Consider the last trade of the day on its own merits. Reckon its outcome as part of the business of the day, regardless whether it diminishes a modest day, or achieves the full quota. Make the time limit more important than the dollar goal, and use the time limit to its fullest opportunity. This change might clear my head of being afraid to lose on that last trade for fear of making a mediocre day more so, and take advantage of the full frame's best opportunities until the time limit for trading has actually come to an end. Stay focused.
Short 2 YM 17031, 17029, -4, -5
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 3951.75, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1154.0, 1153.8, 1154.2, +1.0, -0.0, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1154.6, -0.5
Short 1 YM 17062, +9
Short 2 TF 1155.5, 1155.3, -0.7, -0.0
Long 2 YM 17055, 17055, +7, -2
Long 2 YM 17043, 17043, +5, +10
Total YM +20
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +3.0
The end of the first frame is arbitrarily defined as 11:15am ET. ....and at least that's how I've observed it all these many years. There are no bells rung on the floor, no hand signals from the pit, no announcement from the exchanges nor econ reports scheduled from the Federal Budget offices. And yet, around 11:15am, the action usually seems to change. If the day has been dull, it may finally begin to show a trend, if impulsive and volatile in the early going, it may roll-over and take a nap. It's a self-imposed limit to only trade the 1st Frame of the day, one which I established after uncovering the fractal study we named Serial Sequent. But it was not my intention to use the impending end-of-frame time to get weak about taking another trade when the day's profits were of still slightly shy of quota. That comes from an unwillingness to give up at least a modest profit in pursuit of a full daily goal. But the last signal of this frame is often one of the best on an otherwise listless day, and balking at its appearance so often lately seems to me to be now a behavior pattern and a growing bad habit. Consider the last trade of the day on its own merits. Reckon its outcome as part of the business of the day, regardless whether it diminishes a modest day, or achieves the full quota. Make the time limit more important than the dollar goal, and use the time limit to its fullest opportunity. This change might clear my head of being afraid to lose on that last trade for fear of making a mediocre day more so, and take advantage of the full frame's best opportunities until the time limit for trading has actually come to an end. Stay focused.
Mon Jul 21 Trades and Journal
20140721
Short 2 TF 1138.9, 1138.9, +0.4, +1.4
Short 3 TF 1143.2, 1143.6, 1144.0, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.2, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16942, 16942, +7, +15
Long 2 TF 1138.6, 1138.8, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +7.2
We often think of trading as either long or short. But flat is a position too. And at times, when signals are in conflict, just passing on them can be the most profitable position of the day. Stay focused.
Short 2 TF 1138.9, 1138.9, +0.4, +1.4
Short 3 TF 1143.2, 1143.6, 1144.0, -0.0, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1140.2, +1.2
Long 2 YM 16942, 16942, +7, +15
Long 2 TF 1138.6, 1138.8, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +7.2
We often think of trading as either long or short. But flat is a position too. And at times, when signals are in conflict, just passing on them can be the most profitable position of the day. Stay focused.
Fri Jul 18 Trades & Journal
20140718
Long 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.8, -.6, -.4
Long 1 TF 1132.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1132.4, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1136.6, 1136.5, -0.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1136.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1136.8, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1138.5, 1138.4, +1.7, +0.7
Short 3 NQ 3910.25, 3911.0, 3910.0, -1.25, +1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1143.2, +1.5
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +4.7
A journal is designed for constructive self-critique, and as such, those trading aspects that have been mastered tend to go unmentioned and certainly without self-applause. But working with a student yesterday reminded me how much of my own trading habits are now taken for granted. Take the aspect of the initial exit of a partial position, for instance, or simply a 1 lot position. There is little management of a 1-lot position. Attempts to make all 1-lot positions taken in the 1st Frame of day into runner's is going to be a sorely disappointing process. Nevertheless, many a beginning trader will display the same behavior in the exiting of this 1-lot whether consciously deciding to treat it like a runner or not. Far better than to depend on a trailing stp-loss order to exit at the best profit consistently is to exit the market into the action in the direction of the trade taken. This can be done by leading the market with a limit order at some concept-based level of support or resistance the ensuing action has yet to face, or simply taking advantage of a volatile swoon in the direction of your trade as a nearby wave is broken and advanced. Let the position go into the action, instead of waiting for it to come back in your face. When trading 1-lots or exiting a partial position, this is almost always more favorable than letting your trailing stp-loss be hit. Get focused on the prescribed changes to your behavior noted in your journal. And then change your habits accordingly with practice. This is your new discipline. Repeat until you own it. Then maintain it as your success depends.
Long 2 TF 1132.9, 1132.8, -.6, -.4
Long 1 TF 1132.2, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1132.4, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1136.6, 1136.5, -0.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1136.7, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1136.8, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1137.8, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1138.5, 1138.4, +1.7, +0.7
Short 3 NQ 3910.25, 3911.0, 3910.0, -1.25, +1.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1143.2, +1.5
Total NQ +1.75
Total TF +4.7
A journal is designed for constructive self-critique, and as such, those trading aspects that have been mastered tend to go unmentioned and certainly without self-applause. But working with a student yesterday reminded me how much of my own trading habits are now taken for granted. Take the aspect of the initial exit of a partial position, for instance, or simply a 1 lot position. There is little management of a 1-lot position. Attempts to make all 1-lot positions taken in the 1st Frame of day into runner's is going to be a sorely disappointing process. Nevertheless, many a beginning trader will display the same behavior in the exiting of this 1-lot whether consciously deciding to treat it like a runner or not. Far better than to depend on a trailing stp-loss order to exit at the best profit consistently is to exit the market into the action in the direction of the trade taken. This can be done by leading the market with a limit order at some concept-based level of support or resistance the ensuing action has yet to face, or simply taking advantage of a volatile swoon in the direction of your trade as a nearby wave is broken and advanced. Let the position go into the action, instead of waiting for it to come back in your face. When trading 1-lots or exiting a partial position, this is almost always more favorable than letting your trailing stp-loss be hit. Get focused on the prescribed changes to your behavior noted in your journal. And then change your habits accordingly with practice. This is your new discipline. Repeat until you own it. Then maintain it as your success depends.
Thurs Jul 17 Trade Summary
20140717
Short 2 TF 1144.6, 1144.5, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.8, 1145.6, +1.2, +2.3
Short 1 YM 17064, -7
Short 2 TF 1145.5, 1145.7, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1142.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1147.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1142.7, +2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +8.6
Short 2 TF 1144.6, 1144.5, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1145.8, 1145.6, +1.2, +2.3
Short 1 YM 17064, -7
Short 2 TF 1145.5, 1145.7, +0.7, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1142.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1147.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1142.7, +2.0
Total YM -7
Total TF +8.6
Wed Jul 16 Trade Summary
20140716
Long 1 TF 1151.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17049, 17047, -6, -5
Short 2 ES 1975.25, 1975.25, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1145.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1146.7, 1146.2, -0.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1145.1, 1145.2, +0.4, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1143.4, 1144.0, +1.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +1.2
Total YM -11
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +3.1
Long 1 TF 1151.1, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1151.3, 1151.4, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 YM 17049, 17047, -6, -5
Short 2 ES 1975.25, 1975.25, -0.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1153.0, 1153.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1145.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1146.7, 1146.2, -0.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1145.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1145.1, 1145.2, +0.4, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1143.4, 1144.0, +1.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1143.9, +1.2
Total YM -11
Total ES +2.0
Total TF +3.1
Tues Jul 15 Trades & Journal
20140715
Short 2 NQ 3930.5, 3951.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.7, +0.7, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1160.2, 1159.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 3923.75, 3923.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1153.1, 1152.9, -0.7, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1152.9, 1153.3, 1152.8, +1.2, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 YM 16973, -7
Long 1 TF 1147.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3897.5, +6.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.2
If Test-n-Reject is indeed the more common Day Model, then at the very least it deserves more complexity and a more patient exit strategy once a 1st trend reversal has gotten started. Today, although positioned for it, I missed most of the selling excursion because I let go that position too early, and didn't give the deserved complexity any respect. I took the safe exits on the early shorts instead. The tendency when recognizing having made that error, would be to try and correct it while making subsequent trades as the trend you vacated continues. But if then forced to find counter-trend trades, this error-correction thing only adds to your mistake as the 'safe exits' to initial resistance is exactly the right thing to do in a counter-trend position. I've made that over-corrective or miss-corrective mistake plenty of times before, and today, at least can say that I didn't add to the mistake of exiting too soon in-trend by trying to exit too late in counter-trend. I guess improvements to trading can come in small increments.... ...but must find keys to an earlier awareness of the potential Day Model, as such would have benefited Day Model exit outcomes much better. Be prepared. Consider your exit strategies BEFORE the trade is filled. Question all 'easy' habits and those that make you feel more comfortable.
Short 2 NQ 3930.5, 3951.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1164.7, 1164.7, +0.7, +1.7
Long 2 TF 1160.2, 1159.2, -0.0, -0.4
Long 2 NQ 3923.75, 3923.75, +2.0, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1153.1, 1152.9, -0.7, -0.5,
Long 3 TF 1152.9, 1153.3, 1152.8, +1.2, +2.0, +1.2
Long 1 YM 16973, -7
Long 1 TF 1147.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 3897.5, +6.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +5.2
If Test-n-Reject is indeed the more common Day Model, then at the very least it deserves more complexity and a more patient exit strategy once a 1st trend reversal has gotten started. Today, although positioned for it, I missed most of the selling excursion because I let go that position too early, and didn't give the deserved complexity any respect. I took the safe exits on the early shorts instead. The tendency when recognizing having made that error, would be to try and correct it while making subsequent trades as the trend you vacated continues. But if then forced to find counter-trend trades, this error-correction thing only adds to your mistake as the 'safe exits' to initial resistance is exactly the right thing to do in a counter-trend position. I've made that over-corrective or miss-corrective mistake plenty of times before, and today, at least can say that I didn't add to the mistake of exiting too soon in-trend by trying to exit too late in counter-trend. I guess improvements to trading can come in small increments.... ...but must find keys to an earlier awareness of the potential Day Model, as such would have benefited Day Model exit outcomes much better. Be prepared. Consider your exit strategies BEFORE the trade is filled. Question all 'easy' habits and those that make you feel more comfortable.
Mon Jul 14 Trades & Journal
20140714
Short 3 NQ 3916.5, 3916.5, 3818.25, -0.75, +0.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3919.5, 1919.0, +1.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1161.3, 1161.1, 1160.7, -0.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1159.9, 1159.6, +1.0, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1159.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1159.3, 1159.1, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +3.1
Patience is a key element to successful trading. ...but so is striking quickly at the right time, so also a key is timely exits near the exhaustion or resistance levels. ...but when to apply patience is clearly a difficult thing to time. One thing to look for in applying some patience, is the emotional context of feeling compelled to get rid of a position that struggled so hard to finally turn. By the time it finally does, you're mentally fried, and know you might not be able to handle the even bigger emotional strain of watching it all dissipate and give up such hard earned profits even if the target hasn't been met. Then let entries at turns that really annoy and frustrate trigger a rule of behavior: once out of a messy turn but into the advancing trends with some minimum profits finally in hand, keep your trailing stp's well back. Give it some rope. To the extent of its troubles in making the turn, is potentially a stretch of undisturbed excursion. Relax. Their should be a more rewarding impulse type action when the fire of the budding trend finally takes hold in the awareness of other traders, who have been as deeply affected by the strain of the turn as have you.
Short 3 NQ 3916.5, 3916.5, 3818.25, -0.75, +0.25, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3919.5, 1919.0, +1.0, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1161.3, 1161.1, 1160.7, -0.7, +0.7, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1159.9, 1159.6, +1.0, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1159.8, -0.8
Long 1 TF 1159.3, 1159.1, +1.5, +0.7
Total NQ +2.25
Total TF +3.1
Patience is a key element to successful trading. ...but so is striking quickly at the right time, so also a key is timely exits near the exhaustion or resistance levels. ...but when to apply patience is clearly a difficult thing to time. One thing to look for in applying some patience, is the emotional context of feeling compelled to get rid of a position that struggled so hard to finally turn. By the time it finally does, you're mentally fried, and know you might not be able to handle the even bigger emotional strain of watching it all dissipate and give up such hard earned profits even if the target hasn't been met. Then let entries at turns that really annoy and frustrate trigger a rule of behavior: once out of a messy turn but into the advancing trends with some minimum profits finally in hand, keep your trailing stp's well back. Give it some rope. To the extent of its troubles in making the turn, is potentially a stretch of undisturbed excursion. Relax. Their should be a more rewarding impulse type action when the fire of the budding trend finally takes hold in the awareness of other traders, who have been as deeply affected by the strain of the turn as have you.
Fri Jul 11 Trades & Journal
20140711
Long 2 NQ 3875.75, 3875.75, -1.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.3, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1155.6, 1155.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3886.25, 3886.5, 3880.0, -0.0, -2.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1155.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.0, +2.0
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +3.1
Today's action and outcome served to remind us how important it is to participate in the right breakout plays. One cannot always rely on fades and pullbacks alone. Although both those were the thrust of today's profits, several of those a little later failed and took me back to break-even on the day. When the right breakout signal appeared, it simply triggered no reaction or adjustment in my head. I just sat there with a long that should have then become a Stp-n-Rev position. Everything about that more complex entry model was right.... except my head. Pay attention to what you are doing. Consider the possibilities like a checklist in your brain. Assume nothing. Any sign of comfort or acquiescence in a position is a sign of an impending blind spot to outcomes. Position for the outcomes when the entries are complex. The trades will take care of themselves.
Long 2 NQ 3875.75, 3875.75, -1.0, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1151.2, 1151.3, +0.7, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1155.6, 1155.7, -0.4, -0.5
Short 3 NQ 3886.25, 3886.5, 3880.0, -0.0, -2.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1156.2, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1155.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1153.0, +2.0
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF +3.1
Today's action and outcome served to remind us how important it is to participate in the right breakout plays. One cannot always rely on fades and pullbacks alone. Although both those were the thrust of today's profits, several of those a little later failed and took me back to break-even on the day. When the right breakout signal appeared, it simply triggered no reaction or adjustment in my head. I just sat there with a long that should have then become a Stp-n-Rev position. Everything about that more complex entry model was right.... except my head. Pay attention to what you are doing. Consider the possibilities like a checklist in your brain. Assume nothing. Any sign of comfort or acquiescence in a position is a sign of an impending blind spot to outcomes. Position for the outcomes when the entries are complex. The trades will take care of themselves.
Thurs Jul 10 Trades & Journal
20140710
Short 3 NQ 3847.25, 3846.75, 3846.5, +2.0, +4.0, +8.5
Long 1 TF 1147.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.3, +2.0
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF +1.7
After the initial swings, trades became harder to find, and most arrived with a good deal of conflicting filters. Flat is a position too.
Short 3 NQ 3847.25, 3846.75, 3846.5, +2.0, +4.0, +8.5
Long 1 TF 1147.8, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.8, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1147.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.2, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1146.3, +2.0
Total NQ +14.5
Total TF +1.7
After the initial swings, trades became harder to find, and most arrived with a good deal of conflicting filters. Flat is a position too.
Wed Jul 9 Trades & Journal
20140709
Short 1 TF 1174.7, -0.3
Long 2 YM 16884, 16883, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1168.7, 1168.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16853, -7
Long 1 NQ 3853.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.2, 1166.7, +0.5, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1166.7, +2.0
Totay YM -21
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.4
Sometimes the action itself discourages trades, choppiness, whiplash action, etc. But this is usually just weakness on our part. The signals are there, or they reappear after stp-outs, and it simply requires bigger heart to step back into them. Thus is was today on an earlier short opportunity coming off the initial highs. Because of managing the trades itself, I lost focus on what the signals were and how those signals were being re-created. Trading requires that difficult dichotomy of being totally focused but relaxed at the same time. Note what's really in front of you and trade what you see when price fulfills an entry model you have pre-selected as part of your Trade Plan.
Short 1 TF 1174.7, -0.3
Long 2 YM 16884, 16883, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1172.7, 1172.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1172.5, 1172.5, -0.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1168.7, 1168.7, +0.7, -0.7
Long 1 YM 16853, -7
Long 1 NQ 3853.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1167.2, 1167.2, 1166.7, +0.5, +0.7, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1166.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1165.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1166.7, +2.0
Totay YM -21
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.4
Sometimes the action itself discourages trades, choppiness, whiplash action, etc. But this is usually just weakness on our part. The signals are there, or they reappear after stp-outs, and it simply requires bigger heart to step back into them. Thus is was today on an earlier short opportunity coming off the initial highs. Because of managing the trades itself, I lost focus on what the signals were and how those signals were being re-created. Trading requires that difficult dichotomy of being totally focused but relaxed at the same time. Note what's really in front of you and trade what you see when price fulfills an entry model you have pre-selected as part of your Trade Plan.
Tues Jul 8 Trades & Journal
20140708
Long 2 YM 16857, 16857, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 3884.0, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 3882.5, 3882.0, -1.25, -0.75
Long 2 YM 16855, 16855, -0, -6
Long 2 NQ 3877.5, 3877.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3877.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3877.0, 3877.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1169.9, 1169.9, +0.4, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.5, +1.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.8, +1.5
Total YM +1
Total NQ -5.25
Total TF +8.3
Although early in the day yet as I post, a 2nd Persistent Trend Day Down in row could be sign of budding bear market. ...but we've heard that before... Today, failed to get in sync with two model entry pullbacks because they failed to reach resistance. Instead, I should have had trailing sell stp's for 1-lots ready on both opportunities despite their shortcomings, so was overcautious there. But did manage to short a breakdown in the breakout trend entry model just recently added to the Plan. Breakouts remain a mental challenge to my trading, but have taken this one now several times with continued success, and want to reinforce the habit with a brief glove-clap. Focus is always critical. And today's breakdown play came with a Turn-n-Rev back to long as a critical hourly low was taken. Without the diligence to mark and monitor those lows, that Turn-n-Rev could never have been managed correctly. Stay disciplined. Don't predict; position.
Long 2 YM 16857, 16857, +7, -0
Long 1 NQ 3884.0, -0.25
Long 2 NQ 3882.5, 3882.0, -1.25, -0.75
Long 2 YM 16855, 16855, -0, -6
Long 2 NQ 3877.5, 3877.5, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 3877.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3877.0, 3877.0, +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1169.9, 1169.9, +0.4, +3.0
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.5, +1.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1163.8, +1.5
Total YM +1
Total NQ -5.25
Total TF +8.3
Although early in the day yet as I post, a 2nd Persistent Trend Day Down in row could be sign of budding bear market. ...but we've heard that before... Today, failed to get in sync with two model entry pullbacks because they failed to reach resistance. Instead, I should have had trailing sell stp's for 1-lots ready on both opportunities despite their shortcomings, so was overcautious there. But did manage to short a breakdown in the breakout trend entry model just recently added to the Plan. Breakouts remain a mental challenge to my trading, but have taken this one now several times with continued success, and want to reinforce the habit with a brief glove-clap. Focus is always critical. And today's breakdown play came with a Turn-n-Rev back to long as a critical hourly low was taken. Without the diligence to mark and monitor those lows, that Turn-n-Rev could never have been managed correctly. Stay disciplined. Don't predict; position.
Mon Jul 7 Trade Summary
20140707
Short 2 TF 1196.8, +1.4, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16924, -2
Short 1 TF 1196.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1193.3, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1196.3, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16955, +11
Total YM +9
Total TF +5.3
Short 2 TF 1196.8, +1.4, +2.0
Short 1 YM 16924, -2
Short 1 TF 1196.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1193.3, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1196.3, +1.4
Short 1 YM 16955, +11
Total YM +9
Total TF +5.3
Thurs Jul 3 Trades & Journal
20140703
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.2, +0.8, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1199.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1200.1, 1200.2, +0.7, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1201.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1202.0, 1201.9, +0.7, +0.6
Total TF +5.6
Want to wish all a great July 4th Independence Day. Is a tradition with some of my family to gather and play small-olympics with kids. Games and teams and beer and barbeque. And we even start the festivities by singing the Star Spangled Banner. Our fireworks are small... but we have big hearts... and we love this country dearly. ...and stand to be in the number who are so very very proud to be American. God bless all....
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.2, +0.8, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1199.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1198.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1198.1, 1198.1, +0.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1200.1, 1200.2, +0.7, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1201.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1202.0, 1201.9, +0.7, +0.6
Total TF +5.6
Want to wish all a great July 4th Independence Day. Is a tradition with some of my family to gather and play small-olympics with kids. Games and teams and beer and barbeque. And we even start the festivities by singing the Star Spangled Banner. Our fireworks are small... but we have big hearts... and we love this country dearly. ...and stand to be in the number who are so very very proud to be American. God bless all....
Wed Jul 2 Trade Summary
20140702
Short 2 YM 16902, 16901, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1202.7, +0.9, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.4, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1200.3, 1200.4, +0.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +6.2
Short 2 YM 16902, 16901, +7, +8
Long 2 TF 1203.2, 1202.7, +0.9, +1.3
Long 2 TF 1102.3, 1102.4, +1.2, +0.5
Long 2 TF 1200.3, 1200.4, +0.6, +1.7
Total YM +15
Total TF +6.2
Tues Jul 1 Trades & Journal
20140701
Short 1 NQ 3858.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16842, +11
Short 2 NQ 3863.75, 38.62.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3866.25, 3866.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1180.6, 1180.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1202.0, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1201.8, 1201.7, 1002.2, -0.9, -0.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1203.9, +0.8
Long 2 YM 16849, 16849, +5, +15
Short 1 TF 1205.2, +1.3
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +31
Total TF +1.4
Always tough finding way into an in-trend play on a Persistent Trend Day model. Did take a breakout that was added to Trade Plan just a couple weeks ago for the first time, and was rewarded for it ....but also took a breakout that was not in Trade Plan design.... and was duly punished for it as well. Borrowed sell signals from 3 other contracts in order to short the TF on a retest, but that failed as well. Am not ready, however, to remove all borrowing from Trade Plan, as that technique is usually far more successful... just not today. Stay focused.
Short 1 NQ 3858.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 16842, +11
Short 2 NQ 3863.75, 38.62.75, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 3866.25, 3866.25, +2.0, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1180.6, 1180.7, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1202.0, -0.6
Short 3 TF 1201.8, 1201.7, 1002.2, -0.9, -0.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1102.8, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1203.9, +0.8
Long 2 YM 16849, 16849, +5, +15
Short 1 TF 1205.2, +1.3
Total NQ -1.0
Total YM +31
Total TF +1.4
Always tough finding way into an in-trend play on a Persistent Trend Day model. Did take a breakout that was added to Trade Plan just a couple weeks ago for the first time, and was rewarded for it ....but also took a breakout that was not in Trade Plan design.... and was duly punished for it as well. Borrowed sell signals from 3 other contracts in order to short the TF on a retest, but that failed as well. Am not ready, however, to remove all borrowing from Trade Plan, as that technique is usually far more successful... just not today. Stay focused.
Mon Jun 30 Trades & Journal
20140630
Short 1 NQ 3836.25, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16740, 16738, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 16719, +12
Short 1 TF 1184.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1182.7, 1182.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3843.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1184.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1185.1, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1183.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1182.9, 1183.2, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1182.2, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1181.4, 1181.4, 1184.5, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +29
Total TF +3.0
There's a good question to ask yourself when reviewing the days trades and market action. What were you thinking at the turns? ...or put another way, what were your prejudices at the places that turned out just minutes later to have been the better market opportunities of the day? That's why writing a journal immediately after your trading is better than waiting even an hour, let alone a whole day. .....because you can't remember emotional states that well. They don't linger on, and they are supplanted by the next one erasing the previous one. But if the opportunities in question arrives within the scope and entry models of your trade plan, then something must have kept you out of the trade. What was that thing..? ...that impression? .....that prejudice?
For those of us who have at least conquered some of those prejudices, and have learned to take the trades from our trade plan as they appear at the right edge of the video screen, that important self-improvement question can use a little tweaking. What were you thinking at the places where a runner should have been established instead of exiting with such a nominal profit at the junctures that ended up producing the most important excursions of the frame? And if you are at this point in your trading, you may be able to find the door to the next level of profits you seek to ascend from nominal but already consistent profits to highly rewarding and outstanding daily returns. Let's repeat that question more often during the day. Let's review the day with that question in mind after the end of the first frame has revealed the real excursions from those that were only nominal blips. Let's write that question down on a yellow sticky and put it up on the monitor. And after a few days, let's rewrite it on a blue or pink or any other color sticky so as to keep that consideration freshly before us at all times. Improvement never comes easy. It usually must be goaded along in drips and stumbles. Get focused on it. ...and if it turns out that the best excursions in the day are appearing without triggering a solid resemblance to entry models in your plan, then you need a new Trade Plan, or at least an aptly improved one.
Short 1 NQ 3836.25, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16740, 16738, +7, +10
Long 1 YM 16719, +12
Short 1 TF 1184.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1182.7, 1182.8, -0.5, +0.5
Short 1 NQ 3843.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1184.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1185.1, +1.3
Long 1 TF 1183.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1182.9, 1183.2, -0.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1182.2, -0.6
Long 3 TF 1181.4, 1181.4, 1184.5, +0.7, +0.5, +0.9
Total NQ -2.5
Total YM +29
Total TF +3.0
There's a good question to ask yourself when reviewing the days trades and market action. What were you thinking at the turns? ...or put another way, what were your prejudices at the places that turned out just minutes later to have been the better market opportunities of the day? That's why writing a journal immediately after your trading is better than waiting even an hour, let alone a whole day. .....because you can't remember emotional states that well. They don't linger on, and they are supplanted by the next one erasing the previous one. But if the opportunities in question arrives within the scope and entry models of your trade plan, then something must have kept you out of the trade. What was that thing..? ...that impression? .....that prejudice?
For those of us who have at least conquered some of those prejudices, and have learned to take the trades from our trade plan as they appear at the right edge of the video screen, that important self-improvement question can use a little tweaking. What were you thinking at the places where a runner should have been established instead of exiting with such a nominal profit at the junctures that ended up producing the most important excursions of the frame? And if you are at this point in your trading, you may be able to find the door to the next level of profits you seek to ascend from nominal but already consistent profits to highly rewarding and outstanding daily returns. Let's repeat that question more often during the day. Let's review the day with that question in mind after the end of the first frame has revealed the real excursions from those that were only nominal blips. Let's write that question down on a yellow sticky and put it up on the monitor. And after a few days, let's rewrite it on a blue or pink or any other color sticky so as to keep that consideration freshly before us at all times. Improvement never comes easy. It usually must be goaded along in drips and stumbles. Get focused on it. ...and if it turns out that the best excursions in the day are appearing without triggering a solid resemblance to entry models in your plan, then you need a new Trade Plan, or at least an aptly improved one.
Fri Jun 27 Trades & Journal
20140627
Short 1 TF 1173.3, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1177.9, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 3817.25, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +1.0
Long 1 YM 16714, +15
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16748, +7
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.6
The consequences of taking small 1-lot positions means you have no money management strategy, and the risks of making such positions into runners means you might lose your initial profits from the trade if the budding trend fails to run. Today again, but especially yesterday's first TF short entry, the 1-lot taken meant I missed the ensuing full excursion. Thereafter, as that same full excursion turned into a burning hot impulsive bear collapse, I was left looking for the next trade against the same trend I would have profited immensely by, had I had a runner with which to participate. There are certainly plenty of trades to take using the fractal study we call Serial Sequent within the 1st Frame of the day, but each extra trade taken is a fresh risk, and those signals that produced such great excursions are mostly wasted. Missing, as I did, from a premature 1-lot exit what turned out to be an impulsive in-trend excursion, left me counter-trend trading the violent thrusts of a bear climax... not an easy way to continue in profits, or to make up for the profits I missed by not having the extra units 'running'. Re-examine what is worthy of a 2nd contract that is currently not spelled out specifically enough in the Trade Plan. Whether better to add to the risk of the current position at hand with an additional contract, or add to the risk a bit later by having to take more trades at new junctures is the question. The answer should like in how good those early trade entry models are in the first place vs those at begin to appear as trends reach near-but-perhaps-not-quite-finished climactic finish. ...and a good weekend to all....
Short 1 TF 1173.3, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1177.9, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 3817.25, -1.5
Long 1 TF 1174.2, +1.0
Long 1 YM 16714, +15
Short 1 TF 1177.8, -0.0
Short 1 YM 16748, +7
Total NQ -1.5
Total YM +22
Total TF +2.6
The consequences of taking small 1-lot positions means you have no money management strategy, and the risks of making such positions into runners means you might lose your initial profits from the trade if the budding trend fails to run. Today again, but especially yesterday's first TF short entry, the 1-lot taken meant I missed the ensuing full excursion. Thereafter, as that same full excursion turned into a burning hot impulsive bear collapse, I was left looking for the next trade against the same trend I would have profited immensely by, had I had a runner with which to participate. There are certainly plenty of trades to take using the fractal study we call Serial Sequent within the 1st Frame of the day, but each extra trade taken is a fresh risk, and those signals that produced such great excursions are mostly wasted. Missing, as I did, from a premature 1-lot exit what turned out to be an impulsive in-trend excursion, left me counter-trend trading the violent thrusts of a bear climax... not an easy way to continue in profits, or to make up for the profits I missed by not having the extra units 'running'. Re-examine what is worthy of a 2nd contract that is currently not spelled out specifically enough in the Trade Plan. Whether better to add to the risk of the current position at hand with an additional contract, or add to the risk a bit later by having to take more trades at new junctures is the question. The answer should like in how good those early trade entry models are in the first place vs those at begin to appear as trends reach near-but-perhaps-not-quite-finished climactic finish. ...and a good weekend to all....
Thurs Jun 26 Trades & Journal
20140626
Short 1 TF +1.2
Short 2 TF 1174.1, 1173.1, -1.6, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3804.25, 3804.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16710, 16712, +7, -7
Long 3 TF 1169.5, 1169.6, 1169.8, +1.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 3790.5, 33790.5, 3790.5, +2, +5.0, +7.0
Short 2 ES 1939.5, 1940.25, -1.5, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1170.2, 1170.6, 1170.3, 1170.6, -0.9, +0.7, -0.8, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3802.0, 3801.5, +2.0, +4.5
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1171.9, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.8, -0.1
Total YM, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ +25.5
Total TF -3.4
There is an important point to viewing and trading more than one contract simultaneously. Not all contracts are making lows and highs and pullbacks at the same place. Thus not all sectors offer the same opportunities. On most days, the signals in the TF are more consistent and more indicative of the turns and the breakouts. Today, not so much. But retaining the other contracts within the Trade Plan prevents a myopic market view, as well as offering different levels of risk and opportunity. Sometimes it may seem that the additional concentration to other contracts only bleeds profits off from the winning trades. ...but there is no way to tell in advance which contract will offer the greater percentage of winners. Today only reminds me how important this diversification is, both in comprising the complete signal picture of the days technical events, and cushioning the losing trades with the winners of the better performer.
Short 1 TF +1.2
Short 2 TF 1174.1, 1173.1, -1.6, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3804.25, 3804.25, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16710, 16712, +7, -7
Long 3 TF 1169.5, 1169.6, 1169.8, +1.5, -0.7, -0.7
Long 3 NQ 3790.5, 33790.5, 3790.5, +2, +5.0, +7.0
Short 2 ES 1939.5, 1940.25, -1.5, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1170.2, 1170.6, 1170.3, 1170.6, -0.9, +0.7, -0.8, -0.6
Short 2 NQ 3802.0, 3801.5, +2.0, +4.5
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1171.9, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1171.8, -0.1
Total YM, -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ +25.5
Total TF -3.4
There is an important point to viewing and trading more than one contract simultaneously. Not all contracts are making lows and highs and pullbacks at the same place. Thus not all sectors offer the same opportunities. On most days, the signals in the TF are more consistent and more indicative of the turns and the breakouts. Today, not so much. But retaining the other contracts within the Trade Plan prevents a myopic market view, as well as offering different levels of risk and opportunity. Sometimes it may seem that the additional concentration to other contracts only bleeds profits off from the winning trades. ...but there is no way to tell in advance which contract will offer the greater percentage of winners. Today only reminds me how important this diversification is, both in comprising the complete signal picture of the days technical events, and cushioning the losing trades with the winners of the better performer.
Wed Jun 25 Trades & Journal
20140625
Short 1 YM 16771, +20
Short 2 NQ 3801.0, 3800.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1167.0, 1167.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1166.5, 1167.0, +3.5, +0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.0
The Trade Plan must make accommodations for the frame of day. Since at this stage of my career I only trade the 1st Frame, many of the Midday and Last Hour considerations fall by the wayside, outside my purview. On days like today, there are certainly no regrets for that, as the volatility is mostly released in the early going from the singularity we label the ORB, Opening Range Bar. But looking back on days like yesterday, we have to realize that the biggest, boldest moves often come much later than the 1st Frame. That's fine. Have a plan and stick with it. Suffer no regret at trades outside those limitations, and if / when venturing out into the later frames, be sure your trade entry models accommodate the market's propensity to reverse the initial trend and extend significantly the excursions of the second. What worked as counter trend in the first trend, usually becomes fodder for stp-outs in the second. Adjust your Trade Plan accordingly.
Short 1 YM 16771, +20
Short 2 NQ 3801.0, 3800.5, +2.0, +4.0
Long 3 TF 1167.0, 1167.2, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1166.5, 1167.0, +3.5, +0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.0
The Trade Plan must make accommodations for the frame of day. Since at this stage of my career I only trade the 1st Frame, many of the Midday and Last Hour considerations fall by the wayside, outside my purview. On days like today, there are certainly no regrets for that, as the volatility is mostly released in the early going from the singularity we label the ORB, Opening Range Bar. But looking back on days like yesterday, we have to realize that the biggest, boldest moves often come much later than the 1st Frame. That's fine. Have a plan and stick with it. Suffer no regret at trades outside those limitations, and if / when venturing out into the later frames, be sure your trade entry models accommodate the market's propensity to reverse the initial trend and extend significantly the excursions of the second. What worked as counter trend in the first trend, usually becomes fodder for stp-outs in the second. Adjust your Trade Plan accordingly.
Tues Jun 24 Trades & Journal
20140624
Short 1 NQ 3806.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16845, 16845, +7, +14
Long 2 TF 1176.9, 1176,8, -0.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.8, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1183.6, 1183.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3819.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1187.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1188.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.3, +0.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 YM 16880, +5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +26
Total TF +4.7
A number of low volatility days to deal with lately, followed today by an early vertical climb with scant and shallow pullbacks. Today, sticking to the Trade Plan with pre-10am News management rules bumped me out of longs just before the news explosion, but a nice pullback to the tick lap at least got me back in 1/2 position. Better management would have captured far more of that excursion, but I succumbed to taking the nice sounding round number of +3 for a profit, when the whole 2nd TF trend was waiting to be ridden all the up.
We too often have a tendency to want to be sure of making up for our most recent stp-outs when landing in a position worth far more than the mere recapture of those losses. There are just too many cross currents of emotions at such points to reduce the better outcome to a simple set of rules: getting stp'd out of 2 contracts, I tend to go back only in 1. Landing in the budding reversal with 1 means there is no real management strategy to take partial profits. Trailing a stp on a 1-lot position means staying back far enough to risk recovery from losses while giving the new position enough space to breathe, etc., etc. One is reminded of one of Andy Warhol's many famous quotes in such circumstances, "I want to be a machine," and just so the Trader needs often to be more purely mechanical, and leave the creativity to the planning and insight periods when the markets are closed for business and the trade platforms are safely unloaded from our screens.
Short 1 NQ 3806.5, -1.5
Short 2 YM 16845, 16845, +7, +14
Long 2 TF 1176.9, 1176,8, -0.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.8, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1183.6, 1183.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3819.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1187.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1188.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1188.3, 1188.3, 1188.3, +0.6, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 YM 16880, +5
Total NQ -3.0
Total YM +26
Total TF +4.7
A number of low volatility days to deal with lately, followed today by an early vertical climb with scant and shallow pullbacks. Today, sticking to the Trade Plan with pre-10am News management rules bumped me out of longs just before the news explosion, but a nice pullback to the tick lap at least got me back in 1/2 position. Better management would have captured far more of that excursion, but I succumbed to taking the nice sounding round number of +3 for a profit, when the whole 2nd TF trend was waiting to be ridden all the up.
We too often have a tendency to want to be sure of making up for our most recent stp-outs when landing in a position worth far more than the mere recapture of those losses. There are just too many cross currents of emotions at such points to reduce the better outcome to a simple set of rules: getting stp'd out of 2 contracts, I tend to go back only in 1. Landing in the budding reversal with 1 means there is no real management strategy to take partial profits. Trailing a stp on a 1-lot position means staying back far enough to risk recovery from losses while giving the new position enough space to breathe, etc., etc. One is reminded of one of Andy Warhol's many famous quotes in such circumstances, "I want to be a machine," and just so the Trader needs often to be more purely mechanical, and leave the creativity to the planning and insight periods when the markets are closed for business and the trade platforms are safely unloaded from our screens.
Mon Jun 23 Trade Summary
20140623
Long 1 TF 1182.7, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1953.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1184.6, 1184.6 -0.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1185.3, 1185.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, -1.25, -1.5
Long 1 YM 16825, +17
Long 1 TF 1180.6, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1180.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1180.0, 1180.0, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 ES 1950.25, +0.5
Total ES -0.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ -2.75
Total TF +0.5
Long 1 TF 1182.7, -1.4
Short 1 ES 1953.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1183.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1184.6, 1184.6 -0.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1185.3, 1185.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, -1.25, -1.5
Long 1 YM 16825, +17
Long 1 TF 1180.6, +0.8
Short 1 TF 1180.4, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1180.0, 1180.0, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1178.9, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1178.4, 1178.4, +0.4, -0.4
Long 1 ES 1950.25, +0.5
Total ES -0.5
Total YM +17
Total NQ -2.75
Total TF +0.5
Fri Jun 20 Trades & Journal
20140620
Long 4 TF 1176.9, 1176.9, 1177.0, +0.7, +1.5, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1178.6, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1178.7, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16874, -4
Long 1 NQ 3793.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3792.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1177.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1176.7, 1176.7, +0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.2, -0.3
Total YM -4
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.7
Let myself be affected by the early shaky action, dumping extra units so as to remain small. ....only to find myself frustrated that I had no 2nd unit to ride the fuller excursions. But the biggest weakness was failure to take a breakout that was just recently added to the Trade Plan. I let the approaching end-of-frame filter be a rationale to avoid it ... only to see it pay off big just as the model prescribed. My constitution is usually weaker on Friday's. Am more eager to get off the floor with any nailed down profits, to avoid the angst of a losing Friday. The Friday thing not much of a concern. ...but since I so rarely add anything to the Trade Plan, I must prove the Plan's authority by being more determined to act on those new models. Get rested. Stay disciplined. cya all next week... a good weekend to all...
Long 4 TF 1176.9, 1176.9, 1177.0, +0.7, +1.5, -0.5, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1178.6, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1178.7, +1.2
Short 1 YM 16874, -4
Long 1 NQ 3793.25, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3792.0, -1.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1177.3, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1176.7, 1176.7, +0.4, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1176.2, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.2, -0.3
Total YM -4
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.7
Let myself be affected by the early shaky action, dumping extra units so as to remain small. ....only to find myself frustrated that I had no 2nd unit to ride the fuller excursions. But the biggest weakness was failure to take a breakout that was just recently added to the Trade Plan. I let the approaching end-of-frame filter be a rationale to avoid it ... only to see it pay off big just as the model prescribed. My constitution is usually weaker on Friday's. Am more eager to get off the floor with any nailed down profits, to avoid the angst of a losing Friday. The Friday thing not much of a concern. ...but since I so rarely add anything to the Trade Plan, I must prove the Plan's authority by being more determined to act on those new models. Get rested. Stay disciplined. cya all next week... a good weekend to all...
Thurs Jun 19 Trade Summary
20140619
Short 1 YM 16820, -9
Long 2 NQ 3799.25, 3799.25, +2.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3798.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1179.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.8, +0.5, -0.0, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 3792.0, +3.5
Long 1 TF 1177.8, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3791.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1175.6, 1175.4, +1.0, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.6, +1.6
Total YM -9
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +7.1
Short 1 YM 16820, -9
Long 2 NQ 3799.25, 3799.25, +2.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1181.5, +1.2
Long 1 NQ 3798.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1179.3, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1177.8, 1177.8, 1177.8, +0.5, -0.0, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 3792.0, +3.5
Long 1 TF 1177.8, +1.0
Long 2 NQ 3792.0, 3791.75, -1.0, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1178.9, +1.5
Long 2 TF 1175.6, 1175.4, +1.0, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1178.6, +1.6
Total YM -9
Total NQ +2.5
Total TF +7.1
Wed Jun 18 Trade Summary
20140618
Short 1 NQ 3776.75, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 3774.5, 3773.0, -3.0, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1169.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3767.75, 3767.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16716, 16716, -1, -1
Short 2 NQ 7373.25, 7372.5, -1.25, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16708, 16708, -3, -2
Short 1 NQ 3775.75, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16679, -0
Total YM -7
Total NQ -4.75
Total TF +0.8
Short 1 NQ 3776.75, +3.0
Long 2 NQ 3774.5, 3773.0, -3.0, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1169.0, 1169.0, +0.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1169.4, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 3767.75, 3767.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 YM 16716, 16716, -1, -1
Short 2 NQ 7373.25, 7372.5, -1.25, -2.0
Long 2 YM 16708, 16708, -3, -2
Short 1 NQ 3775.75, +3.0
Long 1 YM 16679, -0
Total YM -7
Total NQ -4.75
Total TF +0.8
Tues Jun 17 Trades & Journal
20140617
Long 2 NQ 3767.25, 3766.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 3772.25, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1163.9, 1164.8, 1164.8, -1.5, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3777.5, 3778.0, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 16708, 16709, -7, +7
Short 2 TF 1169.7, 1169.3, +07, -0.9
Short 3 TF 1172.5, 1172.2, 1172.1, +1.0, +0,7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1172.1, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1930.5, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3779.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1169.1, 1168.8, -0.8, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3778.5, 3778.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.6, +1.5, +0.7
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +3.9
One of the best secrets to being in a fade that is not working is trade management. Stay willing to exit one unit at small enough profit to meet a small pullback price, but large enough to allow an equal stop-loss adjustment to pay for the 2nd unit. This simple trick can cover a lot of mistakes. But a mistake is not when you trade the plan. A mistake is when you ignore the plan and enter because you believe price has gone far enough. ...and an even greater mistake, but one usually ignored by traders, is the consideration to trades that should have been taken and weren't because you thought price could not breakout from the current level and refresh the whole trend. Today, I ignored those levels in the 2nd trend direction, which was the downside. I just couldn't believe the market would give it all back. Remember the 2nd corollary: "....most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market would go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction." Place-card the inflection areas WHILE they are setting up. Consider that there is two sides to your proposed entries at such levels: In, with stp-rev back out and back into the same direction that brought you to the inflection level. Yes, it's true, many breakouts are duds. You must pay the price of embarrassment when you short a low or buy a high when entering one. But the payoffs from the best inflections are far better. Get in the game. Manage your losses, and get the most when the breakouts are impulsive. This is why you come to the markets. Have a game. ID the game's entry models. Get in the game, but trade according to your Plan and none other.
Long 2 NQ 3767.25, 3766.25, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 NQ 3772.25, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1163.9, 1164.8, 1164.8, -1.5, +0.7, +0.7
Short 2 NQ 3777.5, 3778.0, -2.0, -1.0
Short 2 YM 16708, 16709, -7, +7
Short 2 TF 1169.7, 1169.3, +07, -0.9
Short 3 TF 1172.5, 1172.2, 1172.1, +1.0, +0,7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1172.1, +1.0
Long 1 ES 1930.5, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 3779.25, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1169.1, 1168.8, -0.8, -0.6
Long 2 NQ 3778.5, 3778.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1168.3, 1168.6, +1.5, +0.7
Total ES -1.5
Total YM -0
Total NQ -3.0
Total TF +3.9
One of the best secrets to being in a fade that is not working is trade management. Stay willing to exit one unit at small enough profit to meet a small pullback price, but large enough to allow an equal stop-loss adjustment to pay for the 2nd unit. This simple trick can cover a lot of mistakes. But a mistake is not when you trade the plan. A mistake is when you ignore the plan and enter because you believe price has gone far enough. ...and an even greater mistake, but one usually ignored by traders, is the consideration to trades that should have been taken and weren't because you thought price could not breakout from the current level and refresh the whole trend. Today, I ignored those levels in the 2nd trend direction, which was the downside. I just couldn't believe the market would give it all back. Remember the 2nd corollary: "....most of the opportunity that is missed in the markets is missed by traders who couldn't concede that the market would go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction." Place-card the inflection areas WHILE they are setting up. Consider that there is two sides to your proposed entries at such levels: In, with stp-rev back out and back into the same direction that brought you to the inflection level. Yes, it's true, many breakouts are duds. You must pay the price of embarrassment when you short a low or buy a high when entering one. But the payoffs from the best inflections are far better. Get in the game. Manage your losses, and get the most when the breakouts are impulsive. This is why you come to the markets. Have a game. ID the game's entry models. Get in the game, but trade according to your Plan and none other.
Mon Jun 16 Trades & Journal
20140616
Long 1 TF 1156.3, +2.0
Short 1 ES 1929.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1160.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1932.75, -0
Long 2 TF 1160.0, 1159.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3775.25, 3775.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1157.9, 1158.1, +1.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1156.8, +1.3
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4
The Trade Plan can often conflict with intuitive insight. But this discrepancy must be used for a longer term benefit. Lifting the ban against intuitive tape reading because you're just so sure you know what the market is trying to do betrays an admission that in reality, the market can surprise you at any point. Today's high was just such a place for that conflict today. The signal to buy that last breakout was definitely thin with the momentum already pointing down and the Pivot Ledge from the all-session frames staring dead ahead. But I have worked very hard to put breakout triggers first into the Plan, and then into practice, that I deemed it more important to take a 1-lot according to the plan than introduce intuition into the regime. Once introduced, it's so hard to get rid of... and before you know it, you are back to tape reading full-time. Don't let yourself drift back to tape reading. Stick to your Trade Plan. And instead, at those places where you believed your intuitive insight trumped the effectiveness of your Trade Plan, dwell on conditions after the market day is over to study the landscape for a possible filter that should have been there to restrict the Plan at the proper places. Stay disciplined...
Long 1 TF 1156.3, +2.0
Short 1 ES 1929.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1160.7, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1161.8, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1932.75, -0
Long 2 TF 1160.0, 1159.6, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3775.25, 3775.25, +2.0, +4.0
Long 2 TF 1157.9, 1158.1, +1.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1156.8, +1.3
Total ES -1.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.4
The Trade Plan can often conflict with intuitive insight. But this discrepancy must be used for a longer term benefit. Lifting the ban against intuitive tape reading because you're just so sure you know what the market is trying to do betrays an admission that in reality, the market can surprise you at any point. Today's high was just such a place for that conflict today. The signal to buy that last breakout was definitely thin with the momentum already pointing down and the Pivot Ledge from the all-session frames staring dead ahead. But I have worked very hard to put breakout triggers first into the Plan, and then into practice, that I deemed it more important to take a 1-lot according to the plan than introduce intuition into the regime. Once introduced, it's so hard to get rid of... and before you know it, you are back to tape reading full-time. Don't let yourself drift back to tape reading. Stick to your Trade Plan. And instead, at those places where you believed your intuitive insight trumped the effectiveness of your Trade Plan, dwell on conditions after the market day is over to study the landscape for a possible filter that should have been there to restrict the Plan at the proper places. Stay disciplined...
Fri Jun 13 Trades & Journal
20140613
Long 2 NQ 3777.5, 3778.5, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16730, +3
Long 1 TF 1159.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1156.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1155.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3762.5, 3762.25, -1.5, ,-1.25
Short 1 NQ 3758.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 16680, 16682, -7, -10
Short 2 TF 1154.3, 1154.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 2 YM 16693, 16697, -8, -4
Short 1 TF 1155.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1157.3, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1158.8, 1158.6, 1158.5, 1158.8, +1.1, +1.2, -0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1155.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1154.6, 1154.2, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM -26
Total NQ +0.25
Total TF +3.3
The most common Day Model is Test-n-Reject. My Trade Plan looks for it everyday. But even when it shows, sometimes the action is brutal. A V-Bottom is hit or miss. Today, I missed. The 2nd trend tends to be truer, and as such, shorting it can cause multiple stp-outs. Stay cool while its getting away from you. Hold onto cash if the signals are murky. The 2nd trend ends eventually reveal themselves, and if you haven't spent too much capital trying to find, it, its much less likely to repeat a V-Top having made a V-Bottom. Far more likely, the top will then retest and form a large topping pattern, frustrating your attempts to go the other way with it, as the after-shocks of impulse energy that got it up there reverberate into some kind of complex pattern. But your brain has been incorrectly trained from the V-Bottom lows to fear missing the same kind of reversal at the other end. Don't let your brain be trained by the turn of the first trend. Remember markets tend to flip in impulse to correction, and from fast action into grind. Let your brain be trained by historical outcomes, not the emotions of misreading the most recent turn. Stay relaxed, stay focused. Let the market be what it wants. Besides, it's Friday the 13th !!
Long 2 NQ 3777.5, 3778.5, +3.0, +2.0
Long 1 YM 16730, +3
Long 1 TF 1159.0, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1156.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1155.7, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3762.5, 3762.25, -1.5, ,-1.25
Short 1 NQ 3758.0, -2.0
Short 2 YM 16680, 16682, -7, -10
Short 2 TF 1154.3, 1154.4, +0.7, -0.6
Short 2 YM 16693, 16697, -8, -4
Short 1 TF 1155.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1157.3, -0.5
Short 4 TF 1158.8, 1158.6, 1158.5, 1158.8, +1.1, +1.2, -0.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1155.5, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1154.6, 1154.2, +1.0, +0.5
Total YM -26
Total NQ +0.25
Total TF +3.3
The most common Day Model is Test-n-Reject. My Trade Plan looks for it everyday. But even when it shows, sometimes the action is brutal. A V-Bottom is hit or miss. Today, I missed. The 2nd trend tends to be truer, and as such, shorting it can cause multiple stp-outs. Stay cool while its getting away from you. Hold onto cash if the signals are murky. The 2nd trend ends eventually reveal themselves, and if you haven't spent too much capital trying to find, it, its much less likely to repeat a V-Top having made a V-Bottom. Far more likely, the top will then retest and form a large topping pattern, frustrating your attempts to go the other way with it, as the after-shocks of impulse energy that got it up there reverberate into some kind of complex pattern. But your brain has been incorrectly trained from the V-Bottom lows to fear missing the same kind of reversal at the other end. Don't let your brain be trained by the turn of the first trend. Remember markets tend to flip in impulse to correction, and from fast action into grind. Let your brain be trained by historical outcomes, not the emotions of misreading the most recent turn. Stay relaxed, stay focused. Let the market be what it wants. Besides, it's Friday the 13th !!
Thurs Jun 12 Trade Summary
20140612
Short 1 YM 16830, +20
Short 1 NQ 3790.0, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, +5.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1162.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1163.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1163.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1163.5, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3786.25, +3.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +4.1
There is no rush to leave the current month's contracts on roll-over day, especially if trading the ICE TF. Volume in the TF remains better in the current contract all day anyway. The CME is a different story, and by the end of the 1st hour, volume in the expiring contract tends to wane badly. Stayed with the plan today, although remained with 1-lots mostly, sacrificing better profits for some weakness and lack of confluence between contract signals. Stay focused.
Short 1 YM 16830, +20
Short 1 NQ 3790.0, +3.0
Short 2 NQ 3793.0, 3793.25, +5.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1162.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1163.2, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1163.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1163.5, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 3786.25, +3.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +13.0
Total TF +4.1
There is no rush to leave the current month's contracts on roll-over day, especially if trading the ICE TF. Volume in the TF remains better in the current contract all day anyway. The CME is a different story, and by the end of the 1st hour, volume in the expiring contract tends to wane badly. Stayed with the plan today, although remained with 1-lots mostly, sacrificing better profits for some weakness and lack of confluence between contract signals. Stay focused.
Wed Jun 11 Trades & Journal
20140611
Long 1 TF 1164.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1167.8, 1167.5, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3801.75, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1, 1165.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1163.3, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1166.2, 1166.0, +1.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1166.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1167.8, 1167.6, +1.4, +0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +5.2
Generally suffered from a lack of faith today. My trading seemed shaky, and I was reluctant to hold several positions into their better development, therefore missing most of the excursion. Big divergences and big gap openings can be very distracting and tend to rattle one's commitment. One especially annoying failure in the Trade Plan was my avoidance to take a breakdown inflection in the 2nd Trend, that clearly fit my Entry Model requirements. Since I'm a bit tired today, I'll go back over those trading errors a bit closer later, and try to identify exactly where my head was at the time of better management opportunities. Stay focused....
Long 1 TF 1164.7, +1.5
Short 2 TF 1167.8, 1167.5, +0.7, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 3801.75, +5.0
Long 2 TF 1165.8, 1, 1165.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1163.3, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1166.2, 1166.0, +1.4, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1166.6, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1167.8, 1167.6, +1.4, +0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +5.2
Generally suffered from a lack of faith today. My trading seemed shaky, and I was reluctant to hold several positions into their better development, therefore missing most of the excursion. Big divergences and big gap openings can be very distracting and tend to rattle one's commitment. One especially annoying failure in the Trade Plan was my avoidance to take a breakdown inflection in the 2nd Trend, that clearly fit my Entry Model requirements. Since I'm a bit tired today, I'll go back over those trading errors a bit closer later, and try to identify exactly where my head was at the time of better management opportunities. Stay focused....
Tues Jun 10 Trades & Journal
20140610
Long 2 NQ 3795.0, 3795.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 YM 16918, +20
Long 1 TF 1169.9, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3789.75, 3789.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.6, +1.0, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1169.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1169.3, -0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +2.0
Total +3.6
Not all turns in intraday swings come with signals. Sometimes, price just grinds on. There is strong temptation when no other signal at hand to tape read and trade on intuition, on what the market seems to be trying to do. Don't trade on intuition and what the market seems to be trying to do. Stay disciplined. Better to miss trades, or even have a flat day, than win on intuition and risk introducing that fatal disease into your regime.
Long 2 NQ 3795.0, 3795.0, +2.0, +3.0
Short 1 YM 16918, +20
Long 1 TF 1169.9, -0.0
Long 2 NQ 3789.75, 3789.75, -1.5, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1166.3, 1166.6, +1.0, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1169.1, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1169.3, -0.5
Total YM +20
Total NQ +2.0
Total +3.6
Not all turns in intraday swings come with signals. Sometimes, price just grinds on. There is strong temptation when no other signal at hand to tape read and trade on intuition, on what the market seems to be trying to do. Don't trade on intuition and what the market seems to be trying to do. Stay disciplined. Better to miss trades, or even have a flat day, than win on intuition and risk introducing that fatal disease into your regime.
Mon Jun 9 Trades & Journal
20140609
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1169.7, 1169.5, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1950.0, 1949.75, -0.0, +0.25
Short 4 TF 1172.1, 1171.9, 1171.8, 1172.0, -0.5, +1.2, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.1, +1.4, +1.0
PM Trades:
Long 3 TF 1170.4, 1170.8, 1170.2, -0.5, -0.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1169.6, 1169.6, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total ES +0.25
Total TF +2.9
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in a row is very rare, so an eventual reversal was likely. But that doesn't mean it is always easily found. And today, had to return at the Transition Time in order to book even a minimal day's profit. ....some days are better for trading than others.... ...and when the signals are sloppy and the action grinding you down, best to remember to keep the losses small, avoid feeling revenge or irritation, and just wait... ...even if it means waiting for another day. Stay disciplined.
Long 1 NQ 3796.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1169.7, 1169.5, -0.4, -0.5
Short 2 ES 1950.0, 1949.75, -0.0, +0.25
Short 4 TF 1172.1, 1171.9, 1171.8, 1172.0, -0.5, +1.2, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1170.2, 1170.1, +1.4, +1.0
PM Trades:
Long 3 TF 1170.4, 1170.8, 1170.2, -0.5, -0.1, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1169.6, 1169.6, +1.0, +2.0
Total NQ -2.0
Total ES +0.25
Total TF +2.9
Two Persistent Trend Days Up in a row is very rare, so an eventual reversal was likely. But that doesn't mean it is always easily found. And today, had to return at the Transition Time in order to book even a minimal day's profit. ....some days are better for trading than others.... ...and when the signals are sloppy and the action grinding you down, best to remember to keep the losses small, avoid feeling revenge or irritation, and just wait... ...even if it means waiting for another day. Stay disciplined.
Fri Jun 6 Trades & Journal
20140606
Long 1 YM 16864, +20
Long 1 TF 1159.3, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1181.8, 1181.6, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 ES 194575. -0.75
Short 1 NQ 3790.25, +3.0
Short 2 YM 16898, 15900, +10, +5
Long 1 ES 1944.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3788.0, +2.0
Total ES +0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM +35
Total TF -0.2
Funny how conscious I was all week of finishing on a positive note after having had such a bad Monday. ...how the losses linger and the profits are quickly forgot... Today, I gave up the TF ORB breakout play at break even after it acted so whippy from the get go, only to watch it soar minutes later.. Was already in the YM with the same trade, but it's the TF that makes the profit goals each day, not the YM. In any case, did at least get back mostly on track after Monday with profitable days thereafter. Getting back in sync is the best means to recovering from losses, not 'getting even'. Wish all a good weekend.... Stay focused. Recapture the discipline.
Long 1 YM 16864, +20
Long 1 TF 1159.3, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1181.8, 1181.6, +0.5, -0.7
Short 1 ES 194575. -0.75
Short 1 NQ 3790.25, +3.0
Short 2 YM 16898, 15900, +10, +5
Long 1 ES 1944.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 3788.0, +2.0
Total ES +0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total YM +35
Total TF -0.2
Funny how conscious I was all week of finishing on a positive note after having had such a bad Monday. ...how the losses linger and the profits are quickly forgot... Today, I gave up the TF ORB breakout play at break even after it acted so whippy from the get go, only to watch it soar minutes later.. Was already in the YM with the same trade, but it's the TF that makes the profit goals each day, not the YM. In any case, did at least get back mostly on track after Monday with profitable days thereafter. Getting back in sync is the best means to recovering from losses, not 'getting even'. Wish all a good weekend.... Stay focused. Recapture the discipline.
Thurs Jun 5 Trade Summary
20140605
Short 1 TF 1132.5, -0.0
Short 2 YM 16755, 16755, +5, +17
Long 2 ES 1925.0, 1925.25, -1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1128.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1126.9, 1126.9, +0.7, -0.9
Long 1 TF 1126.6, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1132.7, +1.5
Total YM +22
Total ES -0.5
Total TF +2.3
Short 1 TF 1132.5, -0.0
Short 2 YM 16755, 16755, +5, +17
Long 2 ES 1925.0, 1925.25, -1.5, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1128.6, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1127.8, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1126.9, 1126.9, +0.7, -0.9
Long 1 TF 1126.6, +2.5
Short 1 TF 1129.2, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1129.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1132.7, +1.5
Total YM +22
Total ES -0.5
Total TF +2.3
Wed Jun 4 Trades & Journal
20140604
Long 2 NQ 3721.5, 3721.5, -0.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.4, +1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1117.9, 1117.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1117.0, 1116.9, +0.7, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1121.5, +1.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +9.7
Most days are not Persistent Trends Up or Down. So best to accommodate with a Trade Plan of entry models the more typical Day Model pattern of Test-n-Reject. I remain determined, however, to play the momentum breakout trades when the fairly exacting breakout models I require for my Plan do, in fact, appear. ...there just weren't any today I can reprimand or congratulate myself for facing. As for making up Monday's losses, no one trading day is meant ever to have as a goal the erasing of previous losses. The goal is just to get back in sync. Trade what's in front of you. Trade the entry models as they appear at the right edge of the video screen and no other. Be the Plan, and the losses will be erased as the profits take care of themselves.
Long 2 NQ 3721.5, 3721.5, -0.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1119.4, 1119.4, +1.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1117.9, 1117.9, +0.7, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1117.0, 1116.9, +0.7, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1122.2, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1121.5, +1.0
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +9.7
Most days are not Persistent Trends Up or Down. So best to accommodate with a Trade Plan of entry models the more typical Day Model pattern of Test-n-Reject. I remain determined, however, to play the momentum breakout trades when the fairly exacting breakout models I require for my Plan do, in fact, appear. ...there just weren't any today I can reprimand or congratulate myself for facing. As for making up Monday's losses, no one trading day is meant ever to have as a goal the erasing of previous losses. The goal is just to get back in sync. Trade what's in front of you. Trade the entry models as they appear at the right edge of the video screen and no other. Be the Plan, and the losses will be erased as the profits take care of themselves.
Tues Jun 3 Trades & Journal
20140603
Short 1 TF 1120.1, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1126.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1127.2, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1921.75, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1123.6, 1123.7, 1123.8, +1.0, +1.0, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1119.9, +1.3
Total ES +1.0
Total TF +3.3
Mostly traded within the Plan today, but did miss one critical inflection breakout that could have made for a much better day. Maybe just a touch gun shy from yesterday's poor performance, and always like to avoid two losing days in a row. The inflection trade model missed is one am only moving into the trade plan after many weeks consideration.... plus the blistering opportunity lost in yesterday's early collapse. At some point... who knows when... the bear will surely return, and as they have a tendency to fall much more impulsively than they rise, another 1st trend breakout strategy could at least add to the meager list of breakouts and momentum trades currently in the Plan. Stay focused. Re-commit to the Plan. Commit to the changes within the Plan.
Short 1 TF 1120.1, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1126.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1127.2, -0.4
Short 1 ES 1921.75, +1.0
Long 3 TF 1123.6, 1123.7, 1123.8, +1.0, +1.0, +0.8
Long 1 TF 1119.9, +1.3
Total ES +1.0
Total TF +3.3
Mostly traded within the Plan today, but did miss one critical inflection breakout that could have made for a much better day. Maybe just a touch gun shy from yesterday's poor performance, and always like to avoid two losing days in a row. The inflection trade model missed is one am only moving into the trade plan after many weeks consideration.... plus the blistering opportunity lost in yesterday's early collapse. At some point... who knows when... the bear will surely return, and as they have a tendency to fall much more impulsively than they rise, another 1st trend breakout strategy could at least add to the meager list of breakouts and momentum trades currently in the Plan. Stay focused. Re-commit to the Plan. Commit to the changes within the Plan.
Mon Jun 2 Trades & Journal Addendum
20140602
Short 2 YM 16727, 16727, -3, -3
Long 1 TF 1131.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1129.5, 1129.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.2, 1127.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3724.5, 3724.5, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 ES 1919.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1125.8, 1125.9, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1122.8, 1122.7, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3718.25, 3718.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 YM 16690, 16690, 16690, -7, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1120.3, 1120.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 16679, 16679, 16681, +10, +10, +7
Short 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1125.8, 1126.0, 1126.6, -1.3, -1.1, -0.5
Total YM -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF -7.2
Big stretches both ends today exceeded all my trade signals and made this the worse trading day for quite awhile. And feeling the need to 'get even', allowed myself to get sucked into trading after both my loss quota and frame limitations should have kicked me out for the day, nearly doubling my losses instead of getting even. Today was indeed challenging, but there was no reason but weakness to pile it on at the end... Now, one day's loss limit was nearly made into 2 in one day. Shake it off and come back tomorrow. That's what traders do.... Resolve to restore the discipline of the behavior triggers. Any trade plan must accommodate losing days. When things settle, must re-examine my trades and my motives. But excess in the face of unusual volatility and adversity was the biggest mistake. Regain focus. Return to the Plan.
Addendum: It only took getting up from my desk and away from my screens to better examine my motives for exceeding my loss limits today. I was reluctant to give up a long winning streak, in fact, the longest in my career. And two of the best months I've ever had in total profits back to back inflicted me with a notion of arrogance and invincibility. It's as if any habits, even winning streaks, can have a deleterious effect on trading. Whether it be the seeking of glory or arrangement of profits and stops for greater security...all affect your trading to some degree. We can never quite become pure killing machines, but that is what the Trader strives for. He must leave the emotions to the Analyst and the Accountant and the relative comfort they are confined to by not being allowed to trade our accounts.... Stay strong. As for any changes to the Trade Plan as a result of today's action, there are none immediately. However, I did ignore a potential breakdown play what would ahve triggered a short entry just a quarter or third the way down, shortly after the opening. A Serial Sequent rule invites this trade entry, but as breakouts are the least of my plan, this one, like many others, is not included. Must review the frequency of this one's occurrence to see if it should be added to the Plan.
Short 2 YM 16727, 16727, -3, -3
Long 1 TF 1131.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1129.5, 1129.4, -0.7, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1128.2, 1127.8, -1.4, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 3724.5, 3724.5, +2.0, -1.0
Long 1 ES 1919.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1125.8, 1125.9, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1122.8, 1122.7, +1.0, -0.5
Long 2 NQ 3718.25, 3718.25, -2.25, -2.25
Long 3 YM 16690, 16690, 16690, -7, -7, -7
Long 2 TF 1120.3, 1120.3, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 16679, 16679, 16681, +10, +10, +7
Short 1 TF 1119.5, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1125.8, 1126.0, 1126.6, -1.3, -1.1, -0.5
Total YM -0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF -7.2
Big stretches both ends today exceeded all my trade signals and made this the worse trading day for quite awhile. And feeling the need to 'get even', allowed myself to get sucked into trading after both my loss quota and frame limitations should have kicked me out for the day, nearly doubling my losses instead of getting even. Today was indeed challenging, but there was no reason but weakness to pile it on at the end... Now, one day's loss limit was nearly made into 2 in one day. Shake it off and come back tomorrow. That's what traders do.... Resolve to restore the discipline of the behavior triggers. Any trade plan must accommodate losing days. When things settle, must re-examine my trades and my motives. But excess in the face of unusual volatility and adversity was the biggest mistake. Regain focus. Return to the Plan.
Addendum: It only took getting up from my desk and away from my screens to better examine my motives for exceeding my loss limits today. I was reluctant to give up a long winning streak, in fact, the longest in my career. And two of the best months I've ever had in total profits back to back inflicted me with a notion of arrogance and invincibility. It's as if any habits, even winning streaks, can have a deleterious effect on trading. Whether it be the seeking of glory or arrangement of profits and stops for greater security...all affect your trading to some degree. We can never quite become pure killing machines, but that is what the Trader strives for. He must leave the emotions to the Analyst and the Accountant and the relative comfort they are confined to by not being allowed to trade our accounts.... Stay strong. As for any changes to the Trade Plan as a result of today's action, there are none immediately. However, I did ignore a potential breakdown play what would ahve triggered a short entry just a quarter or third the way down, shortly after the opening. A Serial Sequent rule invites this trade entry, but as breakouts are the least of my plan, this one, like many others, is not included. Must review the frequency of this one's occurrence to see if it should be added to the Plan.
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