Wed-Fri Nov 23-25 Thanksgiving

no trades

Tues Nov 22 Trade Summary

20161122
Short 3 TF 1326.5, 1326.9, 1326.9, -0.0, +0.5, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1327.2, -0.8
Short 2 TF 1328.7, 1328.6, -0.2, -0.1
Short 2 YM 18979, 18980, +10, +10
Short 2 YM 18956, 18955, +7, -2
Total YM +25
Total TF -1.2

Fri Nov 18 Trade Summary

20161118
Short 1 TF 1312.5, +2.7
Long 1 NQ 4829.75, +8.0
Short 1 NQ 4828.0, +4.0
Total NQ +12.0
Total TF +2.7

Thur Nov 17 Trade Summary

20161117
Short 2 ES 2179.5, 2179.75, -1.75, -0.0
Long 1 YM 18849, -3
Long 2 TF 1304.4, 1303.7, +0.8, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4791.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1306.1, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1306.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1308.4, 1308.4, +0.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1312.2, +1.1
Total ES -1.75
Total YM -3
Total NQ +3
Total TF +4.0

Tues Nov 15 Trade Summary

20161115
Long 1 TF 1294.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1290.3, -1.4
Long 1 YM 18770, -10
Short 1 NQ 4765.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1294.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1294.2, +1.0
Short 1 YM 18797, +10
Long 1 NQ 4762.25, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4759.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1292.2, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4754.0, -3.0
Long 2 NQ 4750.75, +4.0, +7.0
PM trades:
Short 2 TF 1300.6, 1300.6, +.0.5, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1300.9, 1300.9, +0.5, , -0.1
Total YM -0
Total NQ +3.5
Total TF +5.4

Mon Nov 14 Trade Summary

20161114
Long 1 YM 18824, -1
Long 1 NQ 4725.0, +7.0
Short 2 TF 1301.6, 1302.6, -0.2, +1.6
Long 1 NQ 4719.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1298.1, -1.4
Long 1 TF 1296.9, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1301.7, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1303.5, 1303.5, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1305.8, 1305.8, 1305.8, -1.4, -1.4, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1303.8, 1303.3, -1.4, -1.4
Long 3 TF 1300.0, 1300.0, 1300.1, -0.4, -0.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1295.3, 1295.3, +2.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1293.9, +1.1, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1294.1, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1292.8, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1302.4, +1.0
Total YM -1
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF -4.0

Fri Nov 11 Trade Summary

20161111
Short 1 TF 1254.9, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4726.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1254.3, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4710.0, +10.0
Short 1 TF 1264.7, +0.2
Long 1 TF 1259.9, +2.0
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +3.7

Thurs Nov 10 Trade Summary

20161110
Short 1 NQ 4848.5, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4850.0, +12.0
Short 1 TF 1255.5, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1250.7, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1245.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1241.8, 1241.7, +1.2, +1.1
Long 1 NQ 4760.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1240.8, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4726.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1251.7, +3.4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +7.0

Wed Nov 9 Trade Summary

20161109
Short 1 YM 18280, -10
Short 1 TF 1200, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1197.4, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1196.2, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1195.5, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1194.2, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1198.6, +1.6
Total YM -10
Total TF +3.4

Tues Nov 8 Trade Summary

20161108
Long 1 TF 1183.4, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4761.75, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1188.2, 1188.2, +0.7, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1183.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1183.4, +0.6
Short 1 TF 1181.6, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1185.7, 1186.2, +0.1, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1191.5, +0.8
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +4.0

Mon Nov 7 Trade Summary

20161107
Short 2 NQ 4736.5, 4736.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1184.9, +2.4
Short 1 TF 1184.7, -0.6
Short 1 ES 2113.5, +0.5
Short 1 TF 1185.7, +1.2
Short 1 NQ 4741.25, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4743.75, -0.25
Short 1 NQ 4748.25, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1187.9, +0.4
Short 2 NQ 4752.5, 4752.5, +2.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1187.5, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1188.9, 1189.2, -0.0, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4761.0, -3.0
Short 1 NQ 4766.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1189.7, +0.9
Short 1 NQ 4766.75, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1192.0, +1.0
Total ES +0.5
Total NQ -0.25
Total TF +4.8

Fri Nov 4 Trade Summary

20161104
Long 1 NQ 4664.75, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1157.4, +1.8
Long 1 TF 1157.7, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1161.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1161.5, +1.2
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +5.5

Thurs Nov 3 Trade Summary

20161103
Long 1 TF 1164.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1163.4, 1163.6, -0.4, -0.7
Short 2 YM 17909, 17909, +8, +25
Short 1 YM 17904, -7
Short 2 YM 17912, +15, +30
Long 1 TF 1161.7, +1.6
Short 1 NQ 4720.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1164.0, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1160.8, +0.2
Long 1 TF 1160.9, +1.1
Total NQ -0.0
Total YM +71
Total TF +0.9

Wed Nov 2 Trade Summary

20161102
Short 2 TF 1171.7, 1172.5, -0.0, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1172.4, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1173.0, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1173.2, 1173.7, -0.0, -0.2
Short 1 YM 17490, +10
Long 1 TF 1170.8, -0.1
Long 1 TF 70.9, -0.3
Long 1 TF 70.4, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1169.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1168.6, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1168.7, +1.0
Total YM +10
Total TF +0.1

Tues Nov 1 Trade Summary

20161101
Long 1 NQ 4790.75, +6.0
Long 1 TF 1186.7, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1185.4, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1184.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1184.8, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1184.0, 1183.8, -0.6, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1183.8, -0.7
Long 1 NQ 4778.5, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1180.9, +1.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +2.3

Mon Oct 31 Trade Summary

20161031
Long 2 YM 18073, 18076, -3, +7
Short 1 NQ 4817.25, +6.0
Long 1 TF 1184.2, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1183.7, 1184.2, 1183.5, -0.7, -0.0, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1182.8, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4809.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1185.2, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1186.3, +1.8
Total YM +4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF -1.1

Fri Oct 28 Trade Summary

20161028
Short 1 TF 1188.9, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1190.7, 1191.1, -0.1, +0.7
Long 3 TF 1189.5, 1188.6, 1188.1, -1.4, +1.1, +1.4
Long 1 TF 1188.1, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1190.4, -1.6
Short 2 NQ 4838.5, 4838.0, +2.0, -2.5
Short 2 YM 18156, 18155, +7, +2
Short 2 TF 1193.7, 1193.8, +1.5, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1191.4, -0.6
Long 1 TF 1191.1, +1.1
Total YM +9
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +4.4

Thurs Oct 27 Trades and Journal

20161027
Long 1 NQ 4869.25, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1201.4, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1201.0, 1201.1, +1.2, +1.5
Long 1 NQ 4863.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1200.8, -0.7
Long 3 TF 1199.4, 1198.7, 1198.7, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1197.4, 1196.5, 1196.5, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1195.3, 1195.5, +2.3, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4846.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1195.1, 1195.2, +0.7, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1293.8, -0.1
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +6.4

'Price Action', as it is so called, can be very deceiving. It seems to say one thing while delivering quite the opposite. That my losses did not more equal my profits must fairly be admitted to luck more than skill. I entered too early on buy-stop's at critical structure and price levels, only to have those levels smashed by after-shocks once my price was filled. That a -1.4 stop-loss was enough to survive those initial aftershocks was surprising at the time. But always stick to plan. When filled, an auto-trade management platform should fill your protective stop some default distance from the entry level. Mine is 1.4 for the TF, 3 for the NQ, 1.75 for the ES and 12 for the YM. If price goes my way initially, I cut those stp's down. As I am usually buying in a falling market, a price reaction often favors such daring entries leaving a candle tail just below. I can then cut the stop to that candle tail and see if it holds. Exit one of two contracts at some default profit, say +0.7 to +1.0 for the TF, and you've paid for the trade should a more significant turn not come. But today, price didn't go much in my favor after entries in several critical places. ...but didn't quite stop me out either. Instead, the Trade Plan stipulates that if the entry did not produce a favorable reaction in my direction, and yet nearly-but-not-quite stops me out, bring your default target quickly to break-even and just step aside. If the structure and other trade entry model aspects are still in place after this initial price erosion, then consider re entering closer to the fresh price extreme on a retest for a better relative fill. If that retest fails, however, or if the after shock destroyed the wave structure needed for the model, then wait for another model altogether. Keep to the Plan. In the heat of the moment, that's all you actually have. Assuming you know what the market is trying to do based on your appraisal of 'Price Action' is the very worst thing you can rely on for trade entry.

Wed Oct 26 Trade Summary

20161026
Short 1 NQ 4854.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1207.5, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1208.6, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1206.9, +0.1
Short 1 NQ 4854.5, +2.0
Short 1 YM 18048, -7
Short 1 YM 18093, +6
Short 1 NQ 4873.25, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4876.5, 4877.5, +3.0, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1213.9, 1213.9, -0.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1212.0, -0.1
PM trades:
Long 1 TF 1209.9, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1209.6, +0.2
Long 1 TF 1199.2, +2.0
Total YM -1
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +5.1

Tues Oct 25 Trade Summary

20161025
Short 1 NQ 4901.5, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1224.4, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1221.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1217.7, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1217.7, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1214.5, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1212.4, 1212.5, +1.0, +1.0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.5

Mon Oct 24 Trade Summary

20161024
Short 3 TF 1230.5, 1230.9, 1230.5, +0.5, +1.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1227.3, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1227.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1227.2, +0.7
Total TF +3.4

Fri Oct 21 Trades & Journal

20161021
Short 1 TF 1207.4, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1208.3, -0.3,
Long 1 TF 1208.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1209.2, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1210.9, +1.4
Long 1 YM 17976, -7
Long 1 NQ 4825.5, +5.25
Long 1 NQ 4827.75, +7.0
Long 1 NQ 4831.25, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1216.2, -0.1
Total YM -7
Total NQ +16.25
Total TF +0.1

Trade where the signals occur. Too many beginner traders say things like "I'm only going to trade the TF", ....or the ES, or whatever. The market doesn't care what you want. The TF is certainly the more desirable candidate for any entry, and and if signals do not occur there but do occur in the NQ and one of the others simultaneously, the TF is likely to do the same, even if it's entry model is incomplete. But unless you're ready to take trades in any contract, many days' action will simply leave you stranded.....or worse, leave you pressing. Monitor real estate is cheap these days. Buy lots of them... enough to cover charting for all 4 major contracts and the price entry ladders to go with each. Trade where the market leads you, not where you want to go.

Thurs Oct 20 Trade Summary

20161020
Long 1 NQ 4823.0, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1218.9, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1220.4, 1220.1, +1.6, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1217.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1216.0, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1215.9, 1215.9, -0.4, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1211.7, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1211.0, -0.6
Short 2 TF 1215.2, 1215.0, +0.7, +1.1
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +1.5

Wed Oct 19 Trade Summary

20161019
Short 1 NQ 4830.75, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1214.1, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1212.8, +1.8
Long 1 NQ 4827.0, +7.5
Long 1 TF 1209.8, +1.5
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +2.9

Tues Oct 18 Trade Summary

20161018
Long 1 TF 1217.1, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1216.5, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4844.0, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1215.4, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1214.4, 1213.8, +0.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1213.8, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1214.2, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1213.4, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1213.8, 1214.0, -0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1217.1, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1218.3, 1218.7, -1.4, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1220.0, 1219.9, +0.5, +0.8
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +1.2

Mon Oct 17 Trade Summary

20161017
Short 1 NQ 4804.5, +3.0
Short 2 TF 1211.1, 1211.6, +1.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1208.9, +2.3
Short 1 NQ 4797.5, +3.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.2

Fri Oct 14 Trades and Journal

20161014
Short 1 NQ 4839.0, +5.0
Long 1 NQ 4830.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1230.1, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1223.0, +0.3
Long 1 TF 1220.5, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1219.2, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1217.1, -0.3
Long 1 TF 12.8, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1213.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1211.1, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1211.1, +2.0
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +4.0

In trading, one mistake tends to compound into another. One instigator of this comes from exiting an otherwise good position too soon, sometimes by simply doubting it merits even before it shows you any pain, as I did on a short at a high fairly early in the frame, and again at the LOD at the end of the 1st frame. When you get close to your trading goal for the frame, you get protective and balk at any hesitation the market shows once a position taken. Then, when it exceeds your expectations for the excursion altogether--while you're now on the sidelines--a tendency to get some revenge creeps in and you enter the next trade too early. Although you'd like to pretend you're a machine. You are not. And once out of sync, a whole series of mistakes can be committed, and your profits can be given back quickly. Stay calm. Shake off the doubts. If the model was valid, it deserves the minimum risk afforded to Trade Plan. Accept your stop-outs. A stop-out on a valid entry model is trading according to Plan. Dumping a trade because you have misgivings about it emotionally is not.

Thurs Oct 13 Trade Summary

20161013
Short 1 NQ 4782.5, +4.5
Long 1 TF 1212.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1200.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1209.6, 1208.5, 1208.3, -1.6, -1.4, -1.0
Long 3 TF 1207.4, 1207.4, 1207.4, +1.0, -0.5, -0.5
Long 3 YM 17878, 17878, 17875, +20, +20, +15
Short 1 TF 1208.9, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1210.0, 1210.1, 1209.9, +0.8, -0.5, -0.3
Long 1 YM 17874, +20
Short 1 TF 1214.6, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1214.6, 1214.6, 1214.7, -0.8, +0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1215.0, +1.5
Total YM +75
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF -2.1

Wed Oct 12 Trade Summary

20161012
Short 1 TF 1228.2, +1.1
Short 2 TF 1228.2, 1228.9, -0.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1226.2, +1.7
Total TF +4.8

Tues Oct 11 Trade Summary

20161011
Short 1 NQ 4880.00, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1241.7, +1.7
Long 1 NQ 4871.25, -1.25
Long 1 TF 1239.0, -0.0
Short 1 YM 18163, +45
Long 1 TF 1237.3, -0.0
Total YM +45
Total NQ +3.75
Total TF +1.7

Mon Oct 10 Trade Summary

20161010
Short 3 TF 1251.5, 1251.3, 1251.5, -0.1, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 NQ 4898.5, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4900.75, +5.0
Total NQ +8.0
Total TF +1.6

Fri Oct 7 Trade Summary

20161007
Short 2 NQ 4862.0, 4862.0, +2.0, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1239.8, 1240.0, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1241.5, 1241.5, 1241.5, +1.4, +1.4, +1.4
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +1.4

Thurs Oct 6 Trade Summary

20161006
Short 2 NQ 4861.25, 4862.25, +2.0, +6.0
Long 1 NQ 4855.5, -1.5
Short 1 NQ 4860.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1234.8, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0
Total NQ +7.5
Total TF +2.0

Wed Oct 5 Trade Summary

20161005
Short 2 NQ 4872.5, 4872.5, -2.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1244.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1245.1, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1246.8, -0.5
Short 3 TF 1247.3, 1247.2, 1247.3, +0.7, +1.0, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 4883.5, 4883.5, +2.0, +2.0
Total NQ -0
Total TF +3.2

Tues Oct 4 Trade Summary

20161004
Short 1 YM 18217, -4
Short 1 TF 1244.3, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1245.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1243.8, -0.2
Long 3 TF 1241.3, 1240.3, 1240.3, -1.3, +0.9, +2.0
Short 3 TF 1243.7, 1243.7, 1243.8, -0.0, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1244.6, 1244.6, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1245.2, 1254.2, 1245.2, -0.3, -0.3, -0.3
Long 2 TF 1243.4, 1243.4, -1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4863.0, -2.0
Long 3 TF 1239.0, 1239.4, 1239.0, +2.4, +1.0, +1.0
Total YM -4
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +2.1

Mon Oct 3 Trades & Journal

20161003
Short 1 NQ 4862.0, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1239.6, 1239.6, +0.6, -0.7
Long 2 NQ 4851.0, 4851.0, -1.25, -1.25
Short 1 YM 18129, -1
Short 2 YM 18146, 18146, -10, -10
Short 2 YM 18179, 18179, +20, +25
Short 2 TF 1241.6, 1241.4, -0.9, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1243.1, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1243.4, 1243.4, -1.4, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1244.5, -1.4
Long 1 TF 1242.6, -0.5
Total YM +44
Total NQ -3.5
Total TF -5.7
Second trend directions can be tricky. Disguised as pullbacks to the 1st trend direction, they often come accompanied by stutter-step action, which can draw you in as encourage to fade the dwindling strength. But 2nd trends are where the surprises often lie. A strategy when the entry models are ambiguous, and assume the roles both of pullback opportunities as well as inflection break-out opp's, is to use smaller stp-loos values, and lessen the pain if surprised by the short covering build. Today, I did not, and consequently paid the price of a full days' loss limit to bring my trading to a halt.

Fri Sep 30 no trades, away from the market

Thur Sep 29 Trades & Joural

20160929
Short 1 TF 1249.3, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1250.6, 1250.6, +2.0, +4.0
Total TF +7.0

Most of the time, exiting trades proves to involve far more guesswork than entering, and is generally harder. Entry Modeling can be a fairly exacting checklist. Signals forming simultaneous entry signals in parallel contracts simply add in to quantities for the preferred contract chosen to be used. Today, in the TF, it was no more than a mechanical reaction to add a 2nd contract because the duplication of signals that appeared in both the YM and NQ contracts at the time the TF formed its own. Exiting, however, was more luck than insight. A default target of 4 points in the TF is simply the preset part of the ATM OCO order from the moment the entry is made. Today, that target limit order was hit before I could even consider removing it or moving the trailing stop order more than once did price collapse so quickly. Pure luck. But as my mentor use to remind me often, luck comes only to those who are in a position to receive it.... and a good weekend to all.

Wed Sep 28 Trade Summary

20160928
Short 1 NQ 4867.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1247.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1244.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1242.3, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1238.7, -1.4
Long 1 YM 18093, +20
Long 2 TF 1236.5, 1236.5, +0.7, +2.1
Total YM +20
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.4

Tues Sep 27 Trade Summary

20160927
Short 2 NQ 4830.0, 4895.5, -3.0, +2.0
Short 1 YM 18046, -7
Short 2 TF 1242.7, 1242.7, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1239.2, +1.0
Total YM -7
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +4.0

Mon Sep 26 Trade Summary

20160926
Long 1 TF 1243.9, -0.5,
Long 1 TF 1243.1, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1242.8, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4823.0, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1246.5, 1246.5, +0.7, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1244.2, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 4824.25, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1246.9, +1.0
Total NQ +2.0
Total TF +2.9

Fri Sep 23 Trade Summary

20160923
Long 1 TF 1258.0, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1254.6, 1254.7, +1.0, +1.7
Short 1 YM 18268, +1
Long 1 TF 1254.5, +1.2
Long 1 YM 18256, +1
Long 1 TF 1254.1, +1.7
Total YM +2
Total TF +4.2

Thurs Sep 22 Trade Summary

20160922
Long 1 TF 1250.1, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1248.6, -0.6
Long 2 TF 1251.5, +0.4, 1250.0, -0.5
Long 1 YM 18341, -0
Long 1 TF 1250.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4881.5, -2.0
Short 2 TF 1253.9, 1253.7, +0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1254.0, 1254.0, +0.7, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4886.0, +6.0
Short 1 TF 1254.0, +1.6
Total YM -0
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +2.9

Wed Sep 21 Trade Summary

20160921
Short 1 TF 1232.7, +1.7
Short 1 TF 1234.0, -0.2
Short 1 NQ 4825.25, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1235.1, -0.1
Long 2 NQ 4823.0, 4822.0, +3.0, +2.0
Total NQ +4.5
Total TF +1.4

Tues Sep 20 Trade Summary

20160920
Long 1 TF 1234.1, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1229.2, +1.2
Short 3 TF 1232.9, 1232.6, 1232.9, +0.7, -0.0, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1233.7, 1233.5, +2.0, +1.5
Total TF +4.0

Mon Sep 19 Trade Summary

Trade Summary
20160919
Short 1 TF 1230.1, +2.0
Short 2 TF 1235.1, 1234.9, -1.5, -1.5
Short 3 TF 1237.0, 1237.0, 1237.0, +1.1, +1.1, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1235.0, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1234.7, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1233.2, +0.3
Total TF +3.7

Fri Sep 16 Trade Summary

20160916
Long 2 NQ 4801.0, 4802.5, +5.0, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1218.6, +1.3
Long 1 NQ 4801.0, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1213.5, 1213.8, -0.2, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1213.0, +1.6
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +3.4

Thurs Sep 15 Trade Summary

20160915
Long 1 NQ 4748.0, +7.0
Long 1 NQ 4745.25, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1211.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1212.4, 1212.1, +1.0, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1213.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1214.4, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1216.5, 1216.5, +0.7, +0.4
Total NQ +15.0
Total TF +1.8

Wed Sep 14 Trades and Streaming Journal

20160914
Long 1 TF 1205.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1205.1, 1205.2, -0.6, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1205.2, 1205.2, +1.8, +2.1
Short 2 TF 1208.8, 1208.9, -0.9, +0.7
Short 2 TF 1209.9, 1209.9, +0.7, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1211.6, 1211.9, +0.7, +1.0
Short 1 YM 18061, -1
Short 1 TF 1215.3, +2.3
Short 1 TF 1214.7, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1215.1, +1.7
Long 1 TF 1207.9, +0.3
Total YM -1
Total TF +6.4

[Rather than editing the journal today for this blog format, I've simply copied what I streamed into the valhallafutures real time chat room after trading, as the 1st Frame came to an end. Although much will no doubt remain obscure to those unfamiliar, members understand these concepts which are used every day in the room to call trades.]

Wed Sep14 11:05AM success today at the major turns
Wed Sep14 11:05AM at the LOD 1st trend
Wed Sep14 11:05AM and the HOD
Wed Sep14 11:05AM end of 2nd trend
Wed Sep14 11:05AM required
Wed Sep14 11:05AM that extra focus
Wed Sep14 11:05AM of seeing the other contracts
Wed Sep14 11:05AM offer loans
Wed Sep14 11:05AM against background of
Wed Sep14 11:05AM TTI track hooks
Wed Sep14 11:06AM the action can knock you out
Wed Sep14 11:06AM at least did me at the LOD
Wed Sep14 11:06AM because I had tight stps there
Wed Sep14 11:06AM now wanting to find out how big
Wed Sep14 11:06AM that 1st Pump might become.
Wed Sep14 11:06AM but once it turned
Wed Sep14 11:06AM and the loan signals and TTI hook were obvious
Wed Sep14 11:07AM then I re entered
Wed Sep14 11:07AM on top of being stp'd out.
Wed Sep14 11:07AM ..same at the HOD
Wed Sep14 11:07AM when the retest of the 1st Half Sequent
Wed Sep14 11:07AM didn't hold
Wed Sep14 11:07AM the 1st Pump appeared with YM NQ loan signals
Wed Sep14 11:07AM and the TTI hit track.
Wed Sep14 11:07AM even then,
Wed Sep14 11:08AM I barely caught it
Wed Sep14 11:08AM as price paused just for few moments after the 1st Pump spike
Wed Sep14 11:08AM around 1215.0 level
Wed Sep14 11:08AM just long enough to catch 1.
Wed Sep14 11:09AM but my management not so good,
Wed Sep14 11:09AM once I made up for the earlier stp-out
Wed Sep14 11:09AM took a small profit only
Wed Sep14 11:09AM and so left most of the excursion on the table.
Wed Sep14 11:10AM getting the bulk of the excur
Wed Sep14 11:10AM is a huge area of needed improvement
Wed Sep14 11:10AM comes much easier when you have 3 contracts,
Wed Sep14 11:11AM and with the Trendcheck in play at the HOD
Wed Sep14 11:11AM needed at least 2 up there.
Wed Sep14 11:11AM other things note worthy are the Inflections.
Wed Sep14 11:12AM yesterday's big inflection came on the way down
Wed Sep14 11:12AM at the First Half Sequent level
Wed Sep14 11:12AM which I faded
Wed Sep14 11:12AM but exited b/e,
Wed Sep14 11:12AM after with so many retests
Wed Sep14 11:12AM was likely to give way .
Wed Sep14 11:12AM but the waves piling up to that 1st Half SEquent
Wed Sep14 11:13AM were all InTights
Wed Sep14 11:13AM and TTI had room to spare,
Wed Sep14 11:13AM so was good candidate for stp-n-rev back into trend.
Wed Sep14 11:13AM that inflection break
Wed Sep14 11:13AM eventually stood half way
Wed Sep14 11:13AM between the HOD
Wed Sep14 11:13AM and the measured move targeted LOD
Wed Sep14 11:14AM and in true Rule of Alternation,
Wed Sep14 11:14AM the choppy waves leading into that break
Wed Sep14 11:14AM became smooth and impulsive for the rest of the trip down.
Wed Sep14 11:14AM today's best inflection level
Wed Sep14 11:15AM End of 1st Frame. If price has shown distinct trend, look for some consolidation and/or reversal. If volatile so far, could now become choppy. Further price extremes to initial direction signal possibility of Persistent Trend. Otherwise, if price has only consolidated so far, most likely will begin trending soon.
Wed Sep14 11:15AM was the breakout from the Dolly Parton level up.
Wed Sep14 11:15AM the measured move worked well from there eventualy,
Wed Sep14 11:15AM but that one faced the Kilroy pretty quickly, and so discouraged a stp-n-rev ....a well justified filter.
Wed Sep14 11:16AM This chatroom is only moderated with trade calls from 9:30am to around 11:15am ET. For explanation of trade call language, click here: [ http://www.valhallafutures.com/chatroom/language.png ]. Members may post trades, but only if BEFORE the trade entry arrives, not after. No posting of trades you are already in. This is strictly enforced.
Wed Sep14 11:16AM taking 2 contracts on those fades taken on the way up
Wed Sep14 11:16AM in 2nd trend action
Wed Sep14 11:16AM did two things:
Wed Sep14 11:16AM added to the risk,
Wed Sep14 11:16AM which I didn't want,
Wed Sep14 11:16AM but afforded partial exits
Wed Sep14 11:16AM which I needed to cover 2nd trend risk and so
Wed Sep14 11:16AM avoid the eventual losses.
Wed Sep14 11:17AM so my fighting the 2nd trend
Wed Sep14 11:17AM was really not the best thing to do.
Wed Sep14 11:17AM and not until the TTI approached the track
Wed Sep14 11:17AM on the 1st Half SEquent
Wed Sep14 11:17AM and the 1st Pump loan
Wed Sep14 11:18AM was there truly sufficient model to warrant 2nd trend fading.
Wed Sep14 11:18AM The 2nd series Sequent short was ok
Wed Sep14 11:18AM because it came at new HOD
Wed Sep14 11:18AM and that did offer some small payoff.
Wed Sep14 11:19AM so, taking small profits on 2nd trend fades
Wed Sep14 11:19AM * polarole has quit IRC
Wed Sep14 11:19AM works for keeping you out of trouble.
Wed Sep14 11:19AM but when the trend finally gets really stretched,
Wed Sep14 11:20AM you have to shift your thinking on holds
Wed Sep14 11:20AM to the bigger excursion potentials
Wed Sep14 11:20AM which the TTI track / trendcheck / loan thing offered.
Wed Sep14 11:21AM with the oil news timing in,
Wed Sep14 11:21AM all the excuse for the rally is suddenly out on the table
Wed Sep14 11:21AM with nothing else left to drive it
Wed Sep14 11:21AM and so you get that huge balloon deflation
Wed Sep14 11:22AM like a mini-FOMC.
Wed Sep14 11:22AM all these things I've enumerated
Wed Sep14 11:23AM repeat themselves in the market during these campaigns
Wed Sep14 11:23AM like a revolving checklist
Wed Sep14 11:23AM then this...
Wed Sep14 11:23AM then this...
Wed Sep14 11:23AM then this...
Wed Sep14 11:23AM and if you write them all down
Wed Sep14 11:23AM like a time line
Wed Sep14 11:23AM you become familiar with them
Wed Sep14 11:24AM and can act on them with less feelings of surprise
Wed Sep14 11:24AM and less being confounded
Wed Sep14 11:24AM by the extremes they produce.
Wed Sep14 11:25AM but I still cant get my head around the inflection b/o's well.
Wed Sep14 11:25AM it's like you
Wed Sep14 11:25AM get into fade mode
Wed Sep14 11:25AM and get stuck there
Wed Sep14 11:26AM your mind is saying you
Wed Sep14 11:26AM want the spikes to fail
Wed Sep14 11:26AM to justify your impulse to fade.
Wed Sep14 11:27AM but that mix of stp-n-rev's and fades belongs together
Wed Sep14 11:27AM ...if you can ID the right places...
Wed Sep14 11:28AM would suggest you go back to these recent Persistent Trend days
Wed Sep14 11:28AM we've had
Wed Sep14 11:28AM and ID those inflection levels
Wed Sep14 11:28AM and write down the characteristics
Wed Sep14 11:28AM of the various disparate elements leading up to them
Wed Sep14 11:28AM and then what those same levels produced coming out of them.
Wed Sep14 11:29AM that the rules of Serial Sequent are there to assist in this process of
Wed Sep14 11:29AM Inflection ID
Wed Sep14 11:30AM is an edge that most of the market players simply don't have.
Wed Sep14 11:31AM it's precision still amazes me.
Wed Sep14 11:31AM but the technical layers are still complicated
Wed Sep14 11:31AM and numerous
Wed Sep14 11:32AM and the mental game still induces me to balk
Wed Sep14 11:39AM This chatroom is only moderated with trade calls from 9:30am to around 11:15am ET. For explanation of trade call language, click here: [ http://www.valhallafutures.com/chatroom/language.png ]. Members may post trades, but only if BEFORE the trade entry arrives, not after. No posting of trades you are already in. This is strictly enforced.
Wed Sep14 11:40AM * xmopper has quit IRC
Wed Sep14 11:42AM .

Tues Sep 13 Trade Summary

20160913
Short 1 YM 18095, -0
Long 1 NQ 4742.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4737.0, 4738.0, +3.0, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1216.2, 1216.2, +1.0, -1.0
Long 1 NQ 4727.75, -2.0
Long 3 NQ 4720.0, 4720.0, 4719.5, +2.0, +4.0, +6.0
Long 1 NQ 4721.0, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4720.75, +8.0
Long 1 TF 1212.5, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1212.4, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1211.2, -0.0
Total YM -0
Total NQ +18.5
Total TF +0.2

Mon Sep 12 Trade Summary

20160912
Long 1 NQ 4681.0, -2.5
Long 1 TF 1208.8, +1.6
Short 1 TF 1211.6, -1.4
Short 1 TF 1213.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1214.2, 1213.9, +1.0, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1215.1, 1215.1, +0.7, +3.0
Short 1 YM 18022, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1215.9, +0.7
Total YM +20
Total NQ -2.5
Total TF +5.2

Fri Sep 9 no trades, away.

Thurs Sep 8 Trade Summary

20160908
Short 1 TF 1257.4, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1255.3, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1254.3, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1256.4, -0.3
Short 1 NQ 4813.75, +3.0
Total NQ +3.0
Total TF +3.0

Wed Sep 8 Trade Summary

20160907
Short 1 TF 1255.4, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1255.9, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1255.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1256.0, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1256.3, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1256.1, -0.5
Short 1 NQ 4838.75, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1256.6, 1256.6, +0.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1253.2, +0.7
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF -0.0


Today, having missed so many good ones of late, I finally got committed to taking some breakouts, and as Murphy well noted when making his Laws, these were poor choices and failed immediately. The best breakouts are clean and do not hesitate to show profits. Although you might give up the opportunity too quickly if, instead, the action starts off slow and choppy, there's nothing wrong with using a clean break-out requirement as a filter to keeping the trade. Keep the losses small when taking breakouts...but be willing to take more of them. Eventually, you'll out maneuver Murhpy and catch the breakouts that work, assuming you have good models that qualify and filter them from those that shouldn't be taken in the first place.

Tues Sep 6 Trade Summary

20160906
Short 1 TF 1254.3, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1253.4, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4814.25, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1251.6, +0.9
Long 1 TF 1251.6, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4815.25, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1249.1, 1248.6, -0.0, -0.2
Long 2 TF 1248.8, 1246.5, -0.7, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4799.0, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1249.9, +1.0
Total NQ -4.5
Total TF +3.4

Fri Sep 2 Trade Summary

20160902
Short 1 NQ 4807.25, +0.75
Short 1 TF 1246.5, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1247.2, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1246.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1250.8, 1250.8, 1250.8, +0.7, +1.0, -0.1
Long 1 YM 18504, -7
Long 1 YM 18500, -7
Long 3 TF 1247.1, 1247.1, 1247.0, +1.0, +1.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4806.5, +4.0
Total YM -14
Total NQ +4.75
Total TF +1.6

Thur Sep 1 Trades & Journal

20160901
Long 1 TF 1239.6, -0.5
Long 1 YM 18404, -7
Long 2 TF 1234.5, 1234.5, +0.7, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1236.7, -0.6
Long 1 NQ 4769.5, -2.0
Long 2 TF 1233.1, 1233.1, +0.7, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1233.1, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1233.1, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1227.1, +2.0
2nd frame trades:
Short 1 TF 1232.6, +1.2

Total YM -7
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF +6.5

Two days in row where biggest trades were Inflection Breakouts, and again today, at the 2nd one, a break that seemed just too late to take positioned its trigger about half way between its eventual target and the day's highs. Must get my head around these breakouts if a bigger bear is actually developing, or I'll be left out of all its sweetness, left to take the riskier, count-trend fades. Today, those provide some decent bounces, but the best trades were the breakouts.

Wed Aug 31 Trades & Journal

20160831
Long 1 TF 1243.6, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4768.75, -2.0
Short 1 TF 1243.4, -0.2
Short 2 NQ 4775.0, 4775.0, +1.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1241.6, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1241.7, -0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.2, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1238.6, 1238.6, -0.8, -0.8
Long 2 TF 1234.7, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0d
Long 2 TF 1232.6, 1232.7, +0.7, +1.4
Total NQ +1.0
Total TF +0.7

Breakouts are tricky. Even when you can eye the trend failure and deterioration, picking the wrong level too early means discouraging stop-outs. Then, just when you've stepped back to consider things more clearly, that breakout comes with alarming speed, and leaves you speechless on the sidelines... or so at least it did to me today. What do you have to overcome on days like this to take a stop-and-reverse short entry...? You have to acknowledge that the clean breakout trigger has now appeared already 7 pts down into the frame, and just after taking out a daily low, and closing a gap yet unclosed for several days. And remember, the best breakouts always come right at potential fade level support/resistance, making the duplicity of an Inflection all the more daunting. But consider this: the average breakout signal comes just half way already from where the market started the trend, to where it will eventually go ....and, to the extent the breakout seems unfeasible, incomprehensible and inconceivable as to its potential success, is the extent to which almost no one has seen it coming. Remember the Valhalla First Corollary to the Douglas Premise: "....that most of the opportunity that is missed in the market is missed by traders who were unable to concede that the market would go the expected distance, but in the opposite direction to which they were prejudiced."

Tues Aug 30 Trade Summary

20160830
Long 1 TF 1244.6, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1246.8, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1247.8, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1245.5, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1245.6, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1244.0, 1243.6, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1243.4, +1.1
Total TF +6.5

Mon Aug 29 Trade Summary

20160829
Short 2 TF 1242.5, 1242.5, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 NQ 4797.5, 4797.5, +3.0, +4.0
Long 1 TF 1240.9, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1243.6, +1.1
Short 1 NQ 4791.75, -1.0
Long 1 TF 1242.4, -0.2
Long 1 TF 1241.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1241.1, +0.8
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.5

Fri Aug 26 Trades & Journal

20160826
Short 1 NQ 4789.0, -2.0
Long 1 NQ 4795.0, +2.0
Long 2 NQ 4793.5, 4793.5, -0.0, -2.0
Short 1 NQ 4742.5, -1.0
Long 2 NQ 4780.0, 4780.0, +2.0, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4776.0, 4776.0, +2.0, +8.0
Short 1 TF 1246.5, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1248.8, 1248.8, +0.7, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1249.4, 1249.2, 1249.4, -0.5, -0.0, -0.5
Long 1 YM 18573, -2
Long 2 TF 1246.2, 1246.2, +0.5, -0.7
Long 2 TF 1245.1, 1244.4, -0.0, +2.0
Total YM -2
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +0.1


The news can cause havoc in the market place, especially when a Fed Chairman is scheduled in advance to speak. But it can also create tremendous opportunities. There are often entry models that appear pre-news on which to ride the wave of apparent panic as the speech is made public, and then again after the news is out, there are often bad news buys or good news short opportunities to fade. Today offered both a pre-news short entry and a bad news buy opp, but my trading did not well capitalize on either. The pre-news setup was a stop-n-reverse into a short. I choose the NQ, but it was choppy, so I lost faith. The YM was clean a minute or so later, but I was 'skunked' and just watched as the plunge took place without me. Still focused on the NQ, I used it for the bad news buy opp, but my default exit limit, set at +8.0pts was hit so quickly that the best of the excursion went on without me. The TF would have been an excellent choice, but with my focus still caught up in trying to 'get even' with earlier NQ stop-outs, I missed the TF, and was left to trying to find the top to fade into the ensuing rally--unsuccessfully. Thus a day of huge excursions--most of which my Trade Plan did accommodate--was wasted. Think ahead. What models could appear on a news climax? Which contract do you want to be in? What are its best climax levels from the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid. Be calm. Be ready. Act when the model appears. That is what you came for.

Thur Aug 25 Trade Summary

20160825
Short 1 NQ 4775.75, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1235.6, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1235.6, 1235.1, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4777.5, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1238.0, -0.4
Short 2 YM 18464, 18464, -0, -0
Short 2 TF 1239.90, 1239.9, +0.7, +0.7
Long 1 TF 1238.3, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1237.9, +1.2
Total NQ -6.0
Total TF +6.3

Wed Aug 24 Trades & Journal

20160824
Short 1 TF 1245.3, -0.2
Long 1 NQ 4816.50, -2.0
Long 2 NQ 4812.25, +2.0, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1245.1, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1244.5, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1246.2, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1246.4, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1246.6, -0.5
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF -1.6

Chop and stutterstep are the antithesis to trend and turn. Two days of it in a row can be frustrating ...but some days just better to trade than others. Nothing to do but admit it. Keep the losses small. As the turn begins to progress after a Trade Plan Model Entry, note the possible bar patterns that could act as pre-breakout setups back in the direction against the reversal entry, and trail your stops to those. As the 2nd trend took place, I went with a stp-n-rev at one such pre-break pause, but on a day like today, breakouts just fraught with failure. Monday taught me to try anyway, once a 2nd trend got in place, as Monday was a breakout player's dream. Those days always make your mouth water, and draw you back into study. What are the best qualifying attributes of clean, impulsive breakouts..? I'm still studying. A day characterized by overall chop and stutterstep is certainly no pre-qualifier.

Tues Aug 23 Trade Summary

20160823
Short 1 NQ 4832.5, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4832.5, -1.75
Short 2 TF 1248.2, 1248.2, +0.7, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1249.0, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1248.9, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1248.4, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1248.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4831.0, -0.0
Long 1 NQ 4827.75, -0.5
Long 1 NQ 4827.75, -1.5
Long 2 TF 1248.0, 1248.1, +0.7, -0.5
Total NQ -3.75
Total TF +1.6

Mon Aug 22 Trade Summary

20160822
Short 1 TF 1231.4, +1.5
Short 1 NQ 4801.5, +5.0
Short 1 YM 18472, -1
Short 1 YM 18472, +7
Short 1 TF 1233.1, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1234.5, 1234.8, -0.6, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1236.2, 1236.2, -0.7, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1237.5, 1237.5, 1237.5, +1.0, +1.2, -0.2
Short 3 TF 1237.7, 1237.7, 1237.7, -0.0, -0.2, -1.4
Long 1 NQ 4889.25, -1.0
Long 1 YM 18483, -1
Long 2 TF 1231.3, 1231.5, +0.7, -0.8
Long 2 NQ 4793.0, 4792.0, +3.0, +2.0
Total YM +5
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF -1.0

Fri Aug 19 Trade Summary

20160819
Long 1 NQ 4775.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1231.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1232.0, +1.9
Short 1 TF 1236.2, +1.0
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +4.1

Thur Aug 18 Trade Summary

20160818
Short 1 NQ 4808.5, +5.0
Short 1 TF 1229.5, +1.1
Short 1 TF 1229.1, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 4805.25, -0.0
Short 1 NQ 4810.5, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1234.0, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1233.6, -0.4
Short 1 NQ 4813.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1234.9, +1.2
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +3.0

Wed Aug 17 Trade Summary

20160817
Long 1 YM 18477, -0
Short 1 TF 1226.0, +1.3
Long 2 YM 18468, 18468, -5, -5
Long 2 TF 1223.0, 1223.0, +1.0, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1225.5, 1225.6, +1.2, +0.3
Total YM -10
Total TF +4.8

Tues Aug 16 Trade Summary

20160816
Short 1 TF 1235.6, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1234.6, +0.9
Short 1 TF 1235.8, +0.2
Short 1 TF 1235.8, +0.2
Short 1 TF 1236.6, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1233.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1232.8, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1232.6, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1231.2, -0.3
Long 1 TF 1231.1, +0.8
Total TF +4.9

Mon Aug 15 Trades and Journal

20160815
Short 2 YM 18607, 18606, +7, +6
Short 2 TF 1237.5, 1237.5, +0.7, +1.2
Short 2 TF 1238.9, 1239.0, -0.5, -0.4
Long 1 TF 1239.4, -0.2
Short 2 TF 1240.2, 1240.2, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1240.3, +1.1
Total YM +13
Total TF +3.4

Persistent Trend Patterns often offer scant opportunities. Today, when an inflection breakout opportunity in the first trend appeared, I felt drawn to take it, even though the momentum had peaked and 1st trend breakouts are fraught with failure. On Friday, in contrast, a pre-breakout pause pattern was ideal for a breakout play, and although I initially called it for the room, I cancelled it out before it triggered, also on an emotional basis, but to the negative side. Today's breakout was choppy and I got stopped out quickly. Friday's which I didn't take, was clean and very profitable for those who kept their orders in place. ...and then, with these two trading days back-to-back, both featuring attempts by me to take breakouts, a light bulb went off. It's the presence--or absence, I should say--of opportunity in the marketplace that is driving me to either take breakouts better filtered out, or balk at breakouts better qualified to take that is driving my execution. On Persistent Trend Days, there is scant opportunity to engage with the trend....thus I feel compelled to participate in poorly qualified break-out models simply to have something to trade. The calm, cold, unprejudiced check list of break-out filters and qualifiers goes out the window on need to have something to trade. ...Sometimes, a harder thing than the market to understand is yourself. Now....let's see if I can take this insight into some level of behavior modification in the days to come that will improve my poor participation in the breakouts that work versus those that don't.

Fri Aug 12 Trade Summary

20160812
Short 1 YM 18534, -3
Short 1 TF 1227.6, -0.3
Short 1 YM 18553, +20
Long 1 TF 1226.6, +1.4
Short 1 TF 1230.3, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1230.3, +0.5
Total YM +17
Total TF +1.6

Thur Aug 11 Trade Summary

20160811
Long 1 TF 1226.4, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1224.1, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1223.6, +1.5
Total TF +4.0

Wed Aug 10 Trades & Journal

20160810
Short 1 NQ 4793.0, +5.0
Short 1 YM 18500, +20
Long 1 TF 1224.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1224.3, -0.7
Short 1 TF 4791.25, +4.0
Short 2 TF 1228.0, 1228.1, -0.0, +1.4
Total YM +20
Total NQ +9.0
Total TF +0.5

Breakouts can be tricky. Picking the ones that will break clean into impulse is, of course, the goal. That aim acknowledges that most do not break clean, and in fact, simply act as hooks for reversals into the opposing trend. It's those very hooks that I depend on most of the time in order to capture fills at extreme price levels where exhaustion is likely. But many of these same supposed exhaustion levels are potential inflections. And if those appear with the right set of qualifiers and filters, a successful breakout can be I.D'd. Today, I got hooked, and although it didn't cost that much, being filled on a short at the Low-of-Day in the early frame is always a humbling experience. Nothing in the market makes you look more stupid.....

Tues Aug 9 Trade Summary

20160809
Short 1 TF 1229.8, +1.1
Long 1 TF 1227.5, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1231.9, +0.7
Total TF +3.1

Mon Aug 8 Trade Summary

20160808
Short 1 TF 1233.6, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4788.5, +7.0
Short 1 TF 1233.8, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1230.9, +1.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +4.0

Fri Aug 5 Trades & Summary

20160805
Short 2 NQ 4779.5, 4778.75, -2.5, +2.0
Short 1 ES 2173.25, -1.5
Short 2 TF 1222.7, 1222.7, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1224.9, 1224.9, -0.2, -1.0
Short 2 NQ 4790.25, 4790.25, -2.0, -2.0
Short 2 NQ 4792.75, 4792.75 +2.0, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1226.3, 1226.3, +1.5, +2.0
Short 1 NQ 4790.0, +3.0
Short 1 NQ 4794.25, -1.5
Short 1 TF 1228.3, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1228.6, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1229.6, -0.1
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +1.0

Today I succumbed to a common mental block and missed good entry opportunities in-trend. "The market is too high to buy". The market is NEVER too high to buy...at least as an intraday futures trader. Both the NQ and TF gave the 3 Bar Opening Range patterns that although a long way up from yesterday's close, proceeded to produce huge gains. This left me trying to fade counter trend tops for nickels, while awaiting deeper pullbacks to buy. But to add to the errors, I balked successively at the YM, then ES and then again NQ pullbacks for exactly the same reason. It was still just too high to buy. Except all those too went on up for further gains. ...and what's the 'swing trigger' that will free my head from this block, you ask? How about "the risk I fear is mostly that of the embarrassment". And indeed, it is mostly embarrassment that we face at the obvious stupidity of attempting to buy so high up a gap-up opening. Instead, consider that the financial risk of a default stop-loss for buying a qualified Trend Entry Model this high up at the Open to be no more than what is faced higher up at an even bigger price extension when an entry model of the same caliber appears but for shorting appears. Take the risk. Buy high, should the entry model appear for doing so, and after signs of Persistence as price proceeds, buy again on pullbacks that keep you in-trend on Persistent Trend Day models. There simply is no 'too high' to buy.

Thur Aug 4 Trade Summary

20160804
Short 1 NQ 4732.25, -3.0
Long 1 TF 1212.0, -1.4
Long 1 TF 1210.3, -0.0
Long 2 TF 1208.7, 1208.5, +2.0, +1.0
Long 1 NQ 4715.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1213.4, -0.5
Short 1 ES 2156.75, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4724.75, -1.0
Short 1 TF 1213.0, -0.1
Short 2 TF 1213.1, 1213.4, +0.5, -0.8
Short 1 ES 2158.25, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1214.5, 1214.5, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 ES 2160.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1213.3, -0.0
Total ES -0.25
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.9

Wed Aug 3 Trade Summary

20160803
Short 1 NQ4714.5, -3.0
Short 2 NQ 4719.0, 4719.0, +3.0, +4.0
Short 1 TF 1202.3, -0.2
Long 2 NQ 4717.5, 4717.5, +2.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1200.3, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1203.3, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1204.4, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1201.2, 1201.1, +1.0, +0.4
Total NQ +4.0
Total TF +2.7

Tues Aug 2 Trades & Journal

20160802
Short 1 TF 1217.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1216.4, -1.0
Long 1 ES 2157.75, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1212.2, +2.0
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 1 TF -1.4
Long 3 TF 1208.0, 1208.8, 1208.8, -0.0, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1205.3, 1205.3, 1205.0, -0.0, -0.7, -0.5
Long 3 TF 1203.0, 1203.2, 1203.1, +0.7, -0.7, -1.0
Long 2 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, -0.0, -0.0
Long 3 TF 1201.3, 1201.3, 1201.4, -0.3, -0.3, -0.4
Long 2 TF 1201.8, 1201.8, +1.0, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1201.5, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1200.2, -0.4
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -3.4


2nd frame trades:
Long 1 TF 1196.7, +1.3
Short 1 TF 1202.3, +1.1
Total ES -0.0
Total TF -1.0


Breakouts as a trade strategy are inconsistent. Since the more common day model is Test-n-Reject, playing breakouts to the developing 1st trend of the frame can be very costly. But on the rarer Persistent Trend Days,
those breakouts are mouth watering with rewards, and so leave a strong lingering feeling of stupidity at not having taken them as they appear. Serial Sequent identifies the potential breakout levels with uncanny accuracy. But since structure in the smaller time frames is subordinate to Day Model, those breakout levels will fail on the more common Test-n-Reject days. Today, such a breakout level appeared on the way down some thirty minutes into the frame. I just stared at it like the proverbial deer in headlights, and tried to fade it once it hit several support levels lower down, all of which gave way with the ensuing persistence of the developing day model. Even through the Noon Hour, I had no clear levels to short a pullback. It was that breakout, or nothing at all. Take the clear breakouts when they come, although more likely to succeed from within the 2nd trend of a reversing morning, 1st trend breakouts are at least worth a moderate risk, less the day's opportunities disappear with a less common Persistent Trend Day development.

Mon Aug 1 Trade Summary

20160801
Short 1 TF 1218.6, +2.0
Long 1 NQ 4722.25, +6.0
Short 2 TF 1214.0, 1214.4, -0.7, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1214.8, -0.7
Short 1 TF 1215.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1216.7, 1216.6, +1.5, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1216.4, +1.5
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +4.8

Fri Jul 29 Trades & Journal

2016029
Short 1 TF 1215.0, +1.2
Long 1 TF 1209.1, -1.4
Long 2 TF 1207.9, 1207.9, +1.0, -0.2
Long 2 YM 18308, 18301, +13, +7
Short 1 TF 1211.0, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1210.9, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1211.2, +1.0
Total YM +20
Total TF +1.2

Using the methods offered by the Serial Sequent studies and the Pivot/Exhaustion Grid, pullbacks into 2nd trends and fades at 1st trend extremes are the most consistent opportunities. But when pullbacks remain shy of targets, 2nd trend breakouts can offer the only clear way to participate...and breakouts can be fraught with false starts and enough choppy action to thwart remaining in the position successfully. But on some days, the breakouts are just magic...if you can only muster the faith to take them. At times, there seems a missing, secret ingredient in knowing where the clean breakouts lie versus those that will fail shortly upon entry. Keep an open mind. Maybe a flash of lightning insight will yet appear, and the perfect set of breakout filters to that Technical Event Concept will be complete. ....and a good weekend to all...

Thur Jul 28 Trades & Journal

2016028
Long 1 TF 1214.7, -1.0 simulator mode
Long 2 YM 18330, 18330, +7, +13 simulator mode
Short 1 TF 1217.7, +1.6 simulator mode
=====================
Long 1 TF 1215.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1214.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1213.9, +1.5
Long 1 TF 1211.8, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1212.9, -0.4
Short 2 TF 1213.5, 1213.4, +0.8, +1.5
Total TF +4.1

Previous two days in a row losses triggers a Trade Plan rule. Must start out in simulator mode until can achieve 2 of 3, or 3 of 5 profitable trades vs losers. If achieved, can go back to cash. If not, must remain on simulator til end of frame, and start off on simulator again on the following day. This behavior governor becomes a potential stop-loss on a string of losing days, and is a simple way for beginners and those of experience alike to keep from blowing up an account. A whole week of losses means you start the next week on simulator, but must achieve 2 of 3, or 3 of 5 days in profits before returning to cash. Never try to play catch-up to losses. Losses are gone forever. You can't get them back. The only way to overcome losses is to regain consistency. Regain consistency, and eventually your P&L line recovers. Succumb to the pressure of getting even, and you'll only dig yourself deeper into a hole. Sometimes the markets are more difficult than at others. If your methods are not producing consistent profits, establish behavior governors in your Trade Plan that will stop you out before you blow out your account.

Wed Jul 27 Trades & Journal

2016027
Long 1 NQ 4696.25, -3.0
Short 2 TF 1219.9, 1219.9, +0.5, -0.4
Long 3 TF 1216.9, 1217.3, 1216.7, -0.9, -0.0, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1213.5, 1213.3, -0.7, -0.3
Long 1 NQ 4688.5, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1215.0, -0.0
Short 1 TF 1215.5, -0.7
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF -2.6

Wide divergences between the usual leader TF and the other contact sectors usually accompany losing trading days for me. Yesterday, the YM, which is seldom right about the trend, and often makes solo new highs or solo new lows just about the time the rest of the market is finally ready to go the opposite way, was, in fact, the true leader yesterday, crashing early as the heavy bear. Again today with the leadership shifts and TF divergences. When signals make no sense, there's little you can do. Switch to trading another contract, or keep the powder dry for better trading days ahead.

Tues Jul 26 Trade Summary

2016026
Short 1 YM 18423, -10
Short 2 YM 18434, 18434, -7, -7
Short 2 TF 1213.0, 1213.0, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1214.4, 1214.4, 1214.4, +1.2, +1.2, +1.5
Long 2 YM 18412, 18411, -1, -2
Long 1 NQ 4672.0, -0.0
Long 1 TF 1213.1, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1205.5, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1208.0, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1208.3, 1208.1, -0.7, -0.5
Short 2 TF 1209.9, 1209.9, -0.6, -0.6
Short 1 TF 1212.2, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1213.1, 1213.1, +0.5, +0.5
Total YM -27
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF -1.0

Mon Jul 25 Trade Summary

2016025
Short 1 NQ 4655.0, -2.0
Long 1 TF 1209.4, -0.1
Short 1 NQ 4658.5, +5.0
Long 1 TF 1208.5, +1.0
Long 1 ES 2160.5, -1.5
Long 1 NQ 4646.75, +4.0
Short 1 NQ 4653.75, +3.0
Total ES -1.5
Total NQ +10.0
Total TF +0.9

Fri Jul 22 Trade Summary

2016022
Short 1 TF 1200.2, +1.0
Short 1 NQ 4638.5, -1.0
Short 2 TF 1202.5, 1202.6, +1.0, +.07
Long 1 TF 1200.3, -0.5
Long 1 TF 1199.4, +1.2
Short 1 TF 1206.6, -0.5
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.9

Thur Jul 21 Trade Summary

2016021
Short 1 NQ 4653.75, -0.5
Short 1 YM 18493, -10
Short 2 TF 1210.3, 1210.3, +0.7, +1.8
Short 1 TF 1207.9, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1210.2, -0.3
Long 2 NQ 4650.5, 4649.0, +1.0, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1211.3, +1.0
Total YM -10
Total NQ +3.5
Total TF +2.9

Wed Jul 20 Trades & Journal

Short 1 NQ 4626.75, -2.5
Short 1 NQ 4628.5, 4628.0, +2.0, -1.25
Short 1 TF 1197.7, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1198.8, -0.4
Short 1 TF 1199.3, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1199.8, 1198.8, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1203.0, 1202.8, +0.7, -0.7
Short 1 NQ 4634.0, -2.0
Short 3 TF 1103.4, 1104.1, 1104.3, -1.4, -0.7, -0.3
Short 2 TF 1207.7, 1207.9, +0.5, +1.0
Short 1 TF 1207.6, +1.4
Total NQ -2.75
Total TF -1.0

The Russell 2000 index usually leads the market. Basing momentum and structure on that futures contract is the best way to create entry models for repetitive use. However, sometimes other index sectors do lead, especially the NQ. ...and when that happens the models based on the TF do not produce the expected results, playing catch-up, as it did today, to the vaulting NQ contract. Recognize the 2nd trend of the day as quickly as possible. Sometimes it appears without creating a WorkDone concept to end the 1st trend. If the strength of the 2nd trend surprises you, then it has probably also caught the majority of other traders by surprise. Look for the Inflection Levels in the 2nd trend that could coincide with clean break-out levels, and place your risks there. Today, I just couldn't get may head around it in time, and thus was left fading a stampeding bull for losses. I knew what was happening, and thus kept stops small, but that didn't put me with the trend, it just prevented me from losing big and satisfied my ego that I was doing the right thing. ...I wasn't doing the right thing, and my Analyst was in control. Let the Trader do his job. He has the Inflection Models all out on paper. It doesn't matter if the Analyst doesn't believe it. He has to be told sometimes to just take his medicine and live in a state he perceives is wrong in order for the account to make profits....

Tues Jul 19 Trade Summary

2016019
Long 1 NQ 4601.0, -0.0
Long 3 NQ 4591.75, 4591.75, 4591.75, +2.0, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1200.4, +3.0
Short 1 TF 1203.8, -0.0
Total NQ +6.0
Total TF +3.0

Mon Jul 18 Trade Summary

2016018
Long 1 TF 1199.3, +2.0
Short 1 TF 1201.4, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1204.4, +0.1
Short 1 TF 1206.4, -0.4
Short 1 YM 18456, -5
short 1 TF 1206.7, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1208.4, +1.0
Total YM -5
Total TF +1.9

Fri Jul 15 Trade Summary

2016015
Long 2 TF 1198.8, 1198.7, +2.0, +0.7
Long 1 NQ 4590.0, -1.0
Short 1 YM 18458, +18
Short 1 NQ 4588.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1203.6, 1203.5, +0.5, -0.5
Total YM +18
Total NQ -1.0
Total TF +2.7

Thur Jul 14 Trade Summary

2016014
Long 2 NQ 4585.25, 4585.0, -2.50, +2.0
Long 2 TF 1200.0, 1200.2, +0.7, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1102.8, -0.2
Short 1 TF 1204.2, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1205.0, 1204.9, +1.0, +1.9
Total NQ -0.5
Total TF +4.2

Wed Jul 13 Trade Summary

2016013
Short 1 TF 1207.5, -0.5
Long 2 TF 1201.7, 1201.3, +1.0, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1105.8, -1.5
Short 2 NQ 4580.0, 4579.5, +5.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1203.5, +2.0
Total NQ +7.0
Total TF +1.7

Tues Jul 12 Trades & Journal

2016012
Short 4 TF 1198.2, 1198.1, 1198.2, 1198.9, +0.5, -1.4, +0.5, -0.5
Short 1 YM 18233, -1
Short 2 TF 1200.5, 1201.1, +1.2, +1.0
Short 2 TF 1201.1, 1201.0, +0.5, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1102.5, 1102.8, -0.4, -0.7
Short 3 TF 1203.1, 1203.5, 1203.5, +0.1, -0.3, -0.3
Short 1 TF 1205.9, +3.0
Total YM -1
Total TF +2.5

Sometimes the turns must be stalked very carefully. Could not find the 1st frame high signals, and then because I was convinced the 2nd trend would stick, ignored the TF buy signal at the LOD. ...did the market laugh at me... but because I had not dug self into a deficit hole on the day, and was mostly quiet as I watched the TF late 2015 highs approaching, the confluence of TTI momentum, Serial Sequent structure, and price level all met with enough confluence to provide at least one decent winning trade. On many other days, my trading against such extreme grinds has been too often marked by lack of patience and disbelief that such grinding climbs could continue. Step aside when the signals are fuzzy. It's ok to miss trades. Your risk allowance should not be squandered simply because you fear missing a trade.

Mon Jun 11 Trade Summary

2016011
Long 2 TF 1180.7, 1180.5, +1.2, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1181.8, -0.1
Short 1 TF 1181.8, +1.5
Short 1 TF 1183.4, +2.4
Total TF +5.7

Fri Jul 8 Trades & Journal

20160708
Short 1 TF 1160.1, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1161.1, 1161.3, -1.4, +1.0
Short 2 NQ 4491.24, 4491.25, -3.0, -3.0
Short 1 TF 1162.2, 1162.4, -1.4, -1.4
Short 3 TF 1163.1, 1163.5, 1163.3, -.0.6, -0.4, +1.6
Short 2 TF 1163.8, 1163.8, -0.3, -0.3
Short 3 TF 1163.6, 1163.4, 1163.3, -0.0, -0.2, -0.3
Short 2 NQ 4497.75, 1197.0, +5.0, -1.0
Short 3 TF 1166.6, 1166.6, 1166.6, +1.0, -1.0, -1.4
Short 2 TF 1168.1, 1168.1, -0.7, -0.7
Short 2 TF 1169.2, 1169.2, -0.0, -0.0
Short 3 TF 1169.6, 1169.2, 1169.6, -0.4, +0.5, +0.5
Short 2 TF 1170.7, 1170.7, -0.5, -0.5
Short 1 TF 1170.6, -0.4
Total NQ -2.0
Total TF -8.7

Most difficult days to trade are the grinding bulls. Action defies clean breakout levels, and pullbacks are shallow without providing entry signals. Sometimes just quitting before you dig too deep a hole is best strategy of all.

Thurs Jul 7 Trades & Journal

20160707
Short 2 NQ 4452.75, 4453.0, -0.0, -0.0
Short 2 TF 1153.8, 1153.7, +1.3, +0.5
Long 1 TF 1151.9, +1.0
Long 1 TF 1148.0, +1.0
Long 2 TF 1147.6, 1147.7, -0.8, +0.7
Short 1 TF 1149.4, -0.4
Total NQ -0.0
Total TF +3.3

The ideal entry model consists of the confluence of Structure, Price and Momentum...and occasionally a static time cycle. Structure is contained by the rules of Serial Sequent, and includes concurrence between the four futures contracts we trade. But sometimes, Structure and Momentum targets are fulfilled without the price level of the Pivot Exhaustion Grid being reached. Today, this happened twice and left me on the sidelines for two clean and significant moves among what otherwise were a lot of choppy other opportunities. Resolution: adjust for an incomplete model by size of entry. Such entries would have at least deserved a 1-lot play, and could easily been entered near their turns by use of a stop order type entry. Compromise. The ideal entry opportunities simply do not always show.

Wed Jul 6 Trade Summary

20160706
Long 2 TF 1127.9, 1128.2, +2.0, +2.0
Long 1 TF 1133.7, +1.0
Total TF +5.0

Tues Jul 5 Trade Summary

0160705
Long 2 YM 17739, 17738, +10, +10
Long 2 TF 1137.5, 1137.5, +1.0, -0.1
Long 1 TF 1135.9, +1.9
Short 1 NQ 4403.0, +5.0
Total YM +20
Total NQ +5.0
Total TF +2.8

Fri Jul 1 No Trades. Happy USA Birthday....